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Objective: To predict the trend of AIDS in specific age groups and to determine the objective population for AIDS screening, this study explored the three transmission routes and characterized each patient group using the APC model based on the whole, local, and immigrant populations in Zhejiang, China.Methods: The data recruited in this paper was obtained from the national Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Information System - Antiviral Therapy Management database and the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbook of Zhejiang, China. An APC model was used to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of AIDS, as well as to predict the AIDS incidence in specific age groups based on different sexes with different transmission routes.Results: The AIDS incidence peaked in males aged 20-35 years; the incidence of males was higher than that of females due to the impact of period; obvious cohort effect was observed among the immigrants. In the whole and local populations, the incidences of males in all age groups and females in both the 35-year-old group and the whole age group were predicted to increase sharply in 5 years. In the immigrant population, the AIDS incidences in both sexes in all age groups were expected to increase significantly in 5 years. Under the influence of period, the incidence of AIDS via homosexual transmission in the whole population and the local population increased and remained stable after 2015. At the same time, the incidence of AIDS transmitted by homosexual and heterosexual routes in the immigrants also showed an increasing trend.Conclusions: The results elucidate that there are sex differences in AIDS incidence, and the incidence of AIDS through various transmission routes in all groups is predicted to exhibit an upward trend in the 5 years to come. Effective intervention strategies should be developed and implemented by the public health departments in Zhejiang to control the epidemic of AIDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Our previous cross-sectional study revealed the association between neck circumference (NC) and hyperuricemia. This study aimed to further investigate the longitudinal association between NC and hyperuricemia and to compare the strengths of longitudinal association of NC and waist circumference (WC) with hyperuricemia. Methods: A total of 4383 subjects without hyperuricemia at baseline were included. Multivariable linear regression was used to assess the association between baseline anthropometric indices and uric acid level at follow-up. Cox regression was used to assess the relationship between baseline anthropometric indices and the risk of future hyperuricemia. A receiver-operating characteristic curve was used to compare the predictive ability of baseline anthropometric indices for future hyperuricemia. Results: Among women, only baseline NC was positively, linearly associated with uric acid level at follow-up (β = 1.75) and risk of future hyperuricemia (ptrend < 0.05); risk of hyperuricemia in the third and fourth quartile groups of baseline NC significantly increased, compared with the first quartile group of baseline NC (HR = 1.48 and 1.81, respectively). Among men, neither NC nor WC was associated with hyperuricemia after adjusting for confounder factors. The area under the curve of baseline NC and WC for hyperuricemia was comparable in both genders (0.606 for NC and 0.599 for WC in women, 0.578 for NC and 0.602 for WC in men). Conclusions: For women, only baseline NC is an independent risk factor of hyperuricemia within 3 years. NC and WC have a similar 3-year predictive ability for hyperuricemia in both genders. Key Points • This is the first study to assess the longitudinal association between neck circumference and hyperuricemia. • According to the results of this study, we propose for the first time that neck circumference is an independent risk factor for hyperuricemia in women in the future, rather than waist circumference. • We found for the first time that neck circumference and waist circumference have similar predictive ability for future hyperuricemia in both genders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]