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Introduction: In high-income countries (HICs), the intensive care unit (ICU) bed density is approximately 20-32 beds/100 000 population compared with countries in sub-Saharan Africa, like Malawi, with an ICU bed density of 0.1 beds/100 000 population. We hypothesize that the ICU bed utilization in Malawi will be high.Methods: This is an observational study at a tertiary care center in Malawi from August 2016 to May 2018. Variables used to evaluate ICU bed utilization include ICU length of stay (LOS), bed occupancy rates (average daily ICU census/number of ICU beds), bed turnover (total number of admissions/number of ICU beds), and turnover intervals (number of ICU bed days/total number of admissions - average ICU LOS).Results: 494 patients were admitted to the ICU during the study period. The average LOS during the study period was 4.8 ± 6.0 days. Traumatic brain injury patients had the most extended LOS (8.7 ± 6.8 days) with a 49.5% ICU mortality. The bed occupancy rate per year was 74.7%. The calculated bed turnover was 56.5 persons treated per bed per year. The average turnover interval, defined as the number of days for a vacant bed to be occupied by the successive patient admission, was 1.63 days.Conclusion: Despite the high burden of critical illness, the bed occupancy rates, turn over days, and turnover interval reveal significant underutilization of the available ICU beds. ICU bed underutilization may be attributable to the absence of an admission and discharge protocols. A lack of brain death policy further impedes appropriate ICU utilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This prospective cohort study evaluated the associations of day and time of admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) with hospital mortality at a referral hospital in Malawi, a low-income country in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients admitted to the ICU during the day (08:00-16:00) were compared to those admitted at night (16:01-07:59); patients admitted on weekdays (Monday-Friday) were compared to admissions on weekends/holidays. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. Most patients were admitted during daytime (56%) and on weekdays (72%). There was no difference in mortality between night and day admissions (58% vs. 56%, P = 0.8828; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI = 0.82-1.44, P = 0.5614) or weekend/holiday versus weekday admissions (56% vs. 57%, P = 0.9011; HR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.62-1.21, P = 0.4133). No interaction between time and day was found. These results may be affected by high overall hospital mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Critical illness disproportionately affects people in low-income countries (LICs). Efforts to improve critical care in LICs must account for differences in demographics and infrastructure compared to high-income settings. Part of this effort includes the development and validation of intensive care unit (ICU) risk stratification models feasible for use in LICs. The purpose of this study was to validate and compare the performance of ICU mortality models developed for use in sub-Saharan Africa. Materials and Methods: This was a prospective, observational cohort study of ICU patients in a referral hospital in Malawi. Models were selected for comparison based on a Medline search for studies which developed ICU mortality models based on cohorts in sub-Saharan Africa. Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: During the study, 499 patients were admitted to the study ICU, and after exclusions, there were 319 patients. The cohort was 62% female, with the mean age 31 years (IQR: 23-41), and 74% had surgery preceding ICU admission. Discrimination for hospital mortality ranged from 0.54 (95% CI 0.48, 0.60) for the Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) to 0.72 (95% CI 0.66, 0.78) for the Malawi Intensive care Mortality Evaluation (MIME). After tenfold cross-validation, these results were unchanged. Conclusions: The MIME outperformed other models in this prospective study. Most ICU models developed for LICs had poor to modest discrimination for hospital mortality. Future research may contribute to a better risk stratification model for LICs by refining and enhancing the MIME. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Intensive care medicine can contribute to population health in low-income countries by reducing premature mortality related to surgery, trauma, obstetrical and other medical emergencies. Quality improvement is guided by risk stratification models, which are developed primarily within high-income settings. Models validated for use in low-income countries are needed.Methods: This prospective cohort study consisted of 261 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Kamuzu Central Hospital in Malawi, from September 2016 to March 2018. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We performed univariable analyses on putative predictors and included those with a significance of 0.15 in the Malawi Intensive care Mortality risk Evaluation model (MIME). Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve.Results: Males made up 37.9% of the study sample and the mean age was 34.4 years. A majority (73.9%) were admitted to the ICU after a recent surgical procedure, and 59% came directly from the operating theater. In-hospital mortality was 60.5%. The MIME based on age, sex, admitting service, systolic pressure, altered mental status, and fever during the ICU course had a fairly good discrimination, with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.63-0.76).Conclusions: The MIME has modest ability to predict in-hospital mortality in a Malawian ICU. Multicenter research is needed to validate the MIME and assess its clinical utility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa may be at a high risk of staying on a failing first-line regimen and developing drug-resistance HIV variants due to lack of routine viral load monitoring. We investigated whether cumulative viral load, measured as viremia copy-years (VCY) could predict morbidity in a setting where viral load is not routinely monitored.Methods: This was a single-center prospective observational longitudinal study of HIV-infected children initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the Pediatric HIV/AIDS Care program at Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Ghana. The main outcome was morbidity measured as frequency of hospitalizations, opportunistic infections, and outpatient sick visits. The main explanatory variable was viral load measured as VCY.Results: The study included 140 children who initiated ART between September 2009 and May 2013 and had at least 2 viral load measurements. There were 184 hospitalizations, with pneumonia being the most common cause (22.8 %). A total of 102 opportunistic infections was documented, with tuberculosis being the most common opportunistic infection (68 %). A total of 823 outpatient sick visits was documented, with upper respiratory infections (14.2 %) being the most common cause. Forty-four percent of our study participants had >4 log10 VCY. Children in this sub-cohort had a higher frequency of sick visits compared with those with <4 log10 VCY (p = 0.03). Only 6.5 % of children with >4 log10 VCY had been identified as treatment failure using WHO clinical and immunological treatment failure criteria.Conclusions: High level of cumulative viral load may translate to virological failure and subsequent increased all-cause morbidity. Our finding of potential utility of VCY in pediatrics warrants further investigations. VCY may be a good alternate to routine viral load measurement as its determination may be less frequent and could be personalized to save cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up in resource-limited countries, with limited capacity for CD4 and HIV viral load monitoring, presents a unique challenge. We determined the effectiveness of first-line ART in a real world pediatric HIV clinic and explored associations between readily obtainable patient data and the trajectories of change in CD4 count and HIV viral load. Methods We performed a longitudinal study of a cohort of HIV-infected children initiating ART at the Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital Pediatric HIV clinic in Accra, Ghana, aged 0-13 years from 2009-2012. CD4 and viral load testing were done every 4 to 6 months and genotypic resistance testing was performed for children failing therapy. A mixed linear modeling approach, combining fixed and random subject effects, was employed for data analysis. Results Ninety HIV-infected children aged 0 to 13 years initiating ART were enrolled. The effectiveness of first-line regimen among study participants was 83.3%, based on WHO criteria for virologic failure. Fifteen of the 90 (16.7%) children met the criteria for virologic treatment failure after at least 24 weeks on ART. Sixty-seven percent virologic failures harbored viruses with ⩾ 1 drug resistant mutations (DRMs); M184V/K103N was the predominant resistance pathway. Age at initiation of therapy, child's gender, having a parent as a primary care giver, severity of illness, and type of regimen were associated with treatment outcomes. Conclusions First-line ART regimens were effective and well tolerated. We identified predictors of the trajectories of change in CD4 and viral load to inform targeted laboratory monitoring of ART among HIV-infected children in resource-limited countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]