1. The development and external validation of an overall survival nomogram in medically inoperable centrally located early-stage non-small cell lung carcinoma.
- Author
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Duijm M, Oomen-de Hoop E, van Voort van der Zyp N, van de Vaart P, Tekatli H, Hoogeman M, Senan S, and Nuyttens J
- Subjects
- Humans, Neoplasm Staging, Nomograms, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung pathology, Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung radiotherapy, Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung surgery, Lung Neoplasms pathology, Radiosurgery, Small Cell Lung Carcinoma
- Abstract
Background and Purpose: Current nomograms predicting survival prognosis after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are based on peripherally located tumors. However, patients with a central lung tumor tend to be older, the tumor is often larger and fraction-schedules are risk-adapted. Therefore, we developed and externally validated a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in patients having centrally located early-stage NSCLC treated with SBRT., Materials and Methods: Patients who underwent SBRT for centrally located NSCLC were identified and baseline characteristics were obtained. A nomogram was built to predict 6-month, 1-, 2- and 3-year OS using Cox proportional hazards model. The model building procedure was validated using bootstrap sampling. To determine generalizability, external validation was performed on a cohort of patients with central NSCLC treated with SBRT from another center. Discriminatory ability was measured with the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots were used to compare Kaplan-Meier-estimated and nomogram-predicted OS., Results: The nomogram was built on data of 220 patients and consisted of the following variables: PTV, age, WHO performance status, tumor lobe location and ultracentral location. The C-index of the nomogram (corrected for optimism) was moderate at 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.69). Calibration plots showed favorable predictive accuracy. The external validation showed acceptable validity with a C-index of 0.62 (95% CI 0.61-0.64)., Discussion: We developed and externally validated the first nomogram to estimate the OS-probability in patients with centrally located NSCLC treated with SBRT. This nomogram is based on 5 patient and tumor characteristics and gives an individualized survival prediction., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2021
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