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Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the immunologic profile associated with disease flares in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and to investigate the clinical significance of any differences observed between patients during and following a flare., Methods: Multiparameter flow cytometry was used to examine 47 immune populations within the peripheral blood of 16 healthy controls, 25 patients with clinically quiescent SLE, and 46 patients with SLE experiencing a flare at baseline and at 6- and 12-month follow-up visits. Unsupervised clustering was used to identify patients with similar immune profiles and to track changes over time. Parametric or nonparametric statistics were used when appropriate to assess the association of cellular phenotypes with clinical and laboratory parameters., Results: Five clusters of patients were identified that variably contained patients with active and quiescent SLE, and that had distinct clinical phenotypes. Patients characterized by increased T peripheral helper, activated B, and age-associated B cells were the most likely to be flaring at baseline, as well as the most likely to remain active or flare over the subsequent year if they acquired or retained this phenotype at follow-up. In contrast, patients who had increased T helper (T h ) cells in the absence of B cell changes, or who had increased T h 1 cells and innate immune populations, mostly developed quiescent SLE on follow-up. A significant proportion of patients with SLE had depletion of many immune populations at flare and only showed increases in these populations post-flare., Conclusion: Cellular phenotyping of patients with SLE reveals several distinct immunologic profiles that may help to stratify patients with regard to prognosis and treatment., (© 2023 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Rheumatology.)

Background: Cranial neuropathies (CN) are a rare neuropsychiatric SLE (NPSLE) manifestation. Previous studies reported that antibodies to the kinesin family member 20B (KIF20B) (anti-KIF20B) protein were associated with idiopathic ataxia and CN. We assessed anti-KIF20B as a potential biomarker for NPSLE in an international SLE inception cohort., Methods: Individuals fulfilling the revised 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria were enrolled from 31 centres from 1999 to 2011 and followed annually in the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort. Anti-KIF20B testing was performed on baseline (within 15 months of diagnosis or first annual visit) samples using an addressable laser bead immunoassay. Logistic regression (penalised maximum likelihood and adjusting for confounding variables) examined the association between anti-KIF20B and NPSLE manifestations (1999 ACR case definitions), including CN, occurring over the first 5 years of follow-up., Results: Of the 1827 enrolled cohort members, baseline serum and 5 years of follow-up data were available on 795 patients who were included in this study: 29.8% were anti-KIF20B-positive, 88.7% female, and 52.1% White. The frequency of anti-KIF20B positivity differed only for those with CN (n=10) versus without CN (n=785) (70.0% vs 29.3%; OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4, 18.5). Compared with patients without CN, patients with CN were more likely to fulfil the ACR haematological (90.0% vs 66.1%; difference 23.9%, 95% CI 5.0%, 42.8%) and ANA (100% vs 95.7%; difference 4.3%, 95% CI 2.9%, 5.8%) criteria. In the multivariate analysis adjusting for age at baseline, female, White race and ethnicity, and ACR haematological and ANA criteria, anti-KIF20B positivity remained associated with CN (OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4, 19.1)., Conclusion: Anti-KIF20B is a potential biomarker for SLE-related CN. Further studies are needed to examine how autoantibodies against KIF20B, which is variably expressed in a variety of neurological cells, contribute to disease pathogenesis., Competing Interests: Competing interests: MYC has received consulting fees from AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Werfen, Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals, Celltrion, Organon, and MitogenDx (less than $10 000). AEC has received consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, GlaxoSmithKline, Roche and Otsuka (less than $10 000 each) and a research grant from GlaxoSmithKline. CG has received consulting fees, speaking fees and/or honoraria from AstraZeneca, AbbVie, Amgen, UCB, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck Serono and BMS (less than $10 000 each) and grants from UCB. Grants from UCB were given not to CG but to Sandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust. DDG received consulting fees, speaking fees and/or honoraria from GlaxoSmithKline (less than $10 000). INB has received consulting fees, speaking fees and/or honoraria from Eli Lilly, UCB, Roche, Merck Serono and MedImmune (less than $10 000 each), and grants from UCB, Genzyme, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline. EMG has paid consultation with investment analysts Guidepoint Global Gerson Lehrman Group. KCK has received grants from UCB, Human Genome Sciences/GlaxoSmithKline, Takeda, Ablynx, Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer and Kyowa Hakko Kirin, and has received consulting fees from Exagen Diagnostics, Genentech, Eli Lilly, Bristol Myers Squibb and Anthera (less than $10 000 each). MJF is Director of Mitogen Diagnostics Corporation (Calgary, Alberta, Canada) and a consultant to Werfen International (Barcelona, Spain), Grifols (Barcelona, Spain), Janssen Pharmaceuticals of Johnson & Johnson and Alexion Canada (less than $10 000 each)., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Cognitive impairment (CI) is one of the most common manifestations of Neuropsychiatric Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (NPSLE). Despite its frequency, we have a limited understanding of the underlying immune mechanisms, resulting in a lack of pathways to target. This study aims to bridge this gap by investigating differences in serum analyte levels in SLE patients based on their cognitive performance, independently from the attribution to SLE, and exploring the potential for various serum analytes to differentiate between SLE patients with and without CI., Methods: Two hundred ninety individuals aged 18-65 years who met the 2019-EULAR/ACR classification criteria for SLE were included. Cognitive function was measured utilizing the adapted ACR-Neuropsychological Battery (ACR-NB). CI was defined as a z-score of ≤-1.5 in two or more domains. The serum levels of nine analytes were measured using ELISA. The data were randomly partitioned into a training (70%) and a test (30%) sets. Differences in the analyte levels between patients with and without CI were determined; and their ability to discriminate CI from non-CI was evaluated., Results: Of 290 patients, 40% (n=116) had CI. Serum levels of S100A8/A9 and MMP-9, were significantly higher in patients with CI (p=0.006 and p=0.036, respectively). For most domains of the ACR-NB, patients with CI had higher S100A8/A9 serum levels than those without. Similarly, S100A8/A9 had a negative relationship with multiple CI tests and the highest AUC (0.74, 95%CI: 0.66-0.88) to differentiate between patients with and without CI., Conclusion: In this large cohort of well-characterized SLE patients, serum S100A8/A9 and MMP-9 were elevated in patients with CI. S100A8/A9 had the greatest discriminatory ability in differentiating between patients with and without CI., Competing Interests: MT is Scientific advisor for Women’s Brain Project, Brain Injury Canada and PSP Canada and reports a relationship via clinical trials with Janssen, Biogen, Avanex, Green Valley and Roche. SA reports honoraria for lectures/speakers fees from GSK and AstraZeneca. DB serves Chair Methodology of the OMERACT Management Group. RG serves on the INS Board of Governors and Brain Injury Canada Scientific Advisory Committee. JW reports a relationship with honoraria for lectures from AstraZeneca, participation on the AstraZeneca Advisory Board, indirect support for meeting attendance/travel from multiples drug companies through Lupus 21st Century and indirect salary support from unrestricted funds given by Pfizer for a research chair in the Division of Rheumatology. ZT reports a relationship in the form of consulting fees from AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline Inc, Merck, Ampel, Sarkana Pharma, AbbVie and UCB. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Muñoz-Grajales, Barraclough, Diaz-Martinez, Su, Bingham, Kakvan, Kretzmann, Tartaglia, Ruttan, Choi, Appenzeller, Marzouk, Bonilla, Katz, Beaton, Green, Gladman, Wither and Touma.)

Objective: To determine if the serum levels of neutrophil extracellular trap (NET) remnants (Elastase-DNA and HMGB1-DNA complexes) at the time of a lupus nephritis (LN) flare predict renal outcomes in the following 24 months., Methods: This was a retrospective study performed in prospectively followed cohorts. The study included two cohorts: an exploratory cohort to assess the association between NET remnant levels and the presence of active LN, and a separate LN cohort to determine the utility of NET remnants to predict renal outcomes over the subsequent 24 months., Results: Ninety-two individuals were included in the exploratory cohort (49 active systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 23 inactive SLE and 20 healthy controls (HC)). NET remnants were significantly higher in patients with SLE patients compared with HC (p<0.0001 for both complexes) and those with active LN (36%) had significantly higher levels of NET remnants compared with active SLE without LN (Elastase-DNA: p=0.03; HMGB1-DNA: p=0.02). The LN cohort included 109 active LN patients. Patients with proliferative LN had significantly higher levels of NET remnants than non-proliferative LN (Elastase-DNA: p<0.0001; HMGB1-DNA: p=0.0003). Patients with higher baseline levels of NET remnants had higher odds of not achieving complete remission (Elastase-DNA: OR 2.34, p=0.007; HMGB1-DNA: OR 2.61, p=0.009) and of progressing to severe renal impairment (Elastase-DNA: OR 2.84, p=0.006; HMGB1-DNA: OR 2.04, p=0.02) at 24 months after the flare., Conclusions: Elastase-DNA and HMGB1-DNA complexes predict renal outcomes, suggesting they could be used to identify patients requiring more aggressive therapy at flare onset., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: To update the EULAR recommendations for the management of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) based on emerging new evidence., Methods: An international Task Force formed the questions for the systematic literature reviews (January 2018-December 2022), followed by formulation and finalisation of the statements after a series of meetings. A predefined voting process was applied to each overarching principle and recommendation. Levels of evidence and strengths of recommendation were assigned, and participants finally provided their level of agreement with each item., Results: The Task Force agreed on 5 overarching principles and 13 recommendations, concerning the use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), glucocorticoids (GC), immunosuppressive drugs (ISDs) (including methotrexate, mycophenolate, azathioprine, cyclophosphamide (CYC)), calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs, cyclosporine, tacrolimus, voclosporin) and biologics (belimumab, anifrolumab, rituximab). Advice is also provided on treatment strategies and targets of therapy, assessment of response, combination and sequential therapies, and tapering of therapy. HCQ is recommended for all patients with lupus at a target dose 5 mg/kg real body weight/day, considering the individual's risk for flares and retinal toxicity. GC are used as 'bridging therapy' during periods of disease activity; for maintenance treatment, they should be minimised to equal or less than 5 mg/day (prednisone equivalent) and, when possible, withdrawn. Prompt initiation of ISDs (methotrexate, azathioprine, mycophenolate) and/or biological agents (anifrolumab, belimumab) should be considered to control the disease and facilitate GC tapering/discontinuation. CYC and rituximab should be considered in organ-threatening and refractory disease, respectively. For active lupus nephritis, GC, mycophenolate or low-dose intravenous CYC are recommended as anchor drugs, and add-on therapy with belimumab or CNIs (voclosporin or tacrolimus) should be considered. Updated specific recommendations are also provided for cutaneous, neuropsychiatric and haematological disease, SLE-associated antiphospholipid syndrome, kidney protection, as well as preventative measures for infections, osteoporosis, cardiovascular disease., Conclusion: The updated recommendations provide consensus guidance on the management of SLE, combining evidence and expert opinion., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AF reports honoraria and/or consulting fees from Lilly, Boehringer, Novartis, Abbvie, Astra Zeneca, GSK, MSD, Pfizer, UCB, Amgen, Aenorasis, support for attending meetings from UCB. MK reports honoraria and/or consulting fees from GSK, participation in advisory boards from GSK, Astra Zeneca, Amgen. JA reports honoraria and/or consulting fees from Novartis, Astra Zeneca, support for attending meetings from Novartis, Astra-Zeneca, participation in advisory boards from Roche, Astra-Zeneca (all paid to Lupus Europe). MA reports honoraria and/or consulting fees from AbbVie, Astra Zeneca, GSK, Otsuka, Roche, support for attending meetings from Pfizer. LA reports grants from GSK, honoraria and/or consulting fees from Alexion, Alpine, Amgen, Astra Zeneca, AbbVie, Biogen, BMS, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Chugai, GSK, Grifols, Idorsia, Janssen, Kezar, Lilly, Medac, Novartis, Ono pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Roche, UCB, support for attending meetings from Novartis, Astra-Zeneca. INB reports grants from GSK, Janssen, honoraria and/or consulting fees from Astra Zeneca, GSK, Eli Lilly, UCB, MSD, participation in advisory boards from Aurinia, Astra Zeneca, ILTOO. RC reports honoraria, consulting fees and/or participation in advisory boards from AstraZeneca, Celgene, GSK, Janssen, Lilly, Pfizer, UCB, Rubió, Werfen. AD reports honoraria and consulting fees from Otsuka, Astra Zeneca, GSK, Lilly. TD reports consulting fees from Roche, Novartis, GSK, Astra Zeneca, participation in advisory boards from GNE, Roche, Novartis. DDG reports grants from Abbvie, Amgen, BMS, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, consulting fees from Abbvie, Amgen, Astra Zeneca, BMS, Eli Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB. FAH reports grants from GSK, Roche. DJ reports grants from GSK, Roche, CSL Vifor, honoraria and consulting fees from Astra Zeneca, Chemocentryx, GSK, Novartis, Takeda, CSL Vifor, participation in advisory boards from Chinook, GSK, stocks in Aurinia. LK reports honoraria fees from Janssen, Takeda, support for attending meetings from Abbvie, Astra Zeneca, CSL Behring, participation in advisory boards from Swixx Pharma, Roche, Astra Zeneca. CCM reports honoraria fees from GSK, support for attending meetings from Novartis. EFM reports grants from AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Company, EMD Serono, Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, and UCB, honoraria and/or consulting fees from AbbVie, Astra Zeneca, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Company, EMD Serono, Galapagos, Genentech, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, IGM, Janssen, Novartis, Servier, Wolf, Zenas, support for attending meetings from Astra Zeneca, Roche. GM reports honoraria fees from GSK, Roche, Otsuka, participation in advisory boards from GSK, Otsuka. MM reports honoraria and/or consulting fees from Astra Zeneca, Eli Lilly, GSK, UCB, Janssen, participation in advisory boards from Idorsia. JM reports grants from GSK, honoraria and/or consulting fees from GSK, Astra Zeneca, Otsuka, BMS, participation in advisory boards from GSK, Astra Zeneca, BMS. GN reports honoraria and/or consulting fees from Sobi, GSK, Miltenyi Biotech, Swixx Biopharma, AbbVie, Lilly, Richter, Amgen, Roche, Kedrion, support for attending meetings from Roche, AbbVie, Sobi, Biotest. SVN reports honoraria and/or consulting fees from Astra Zeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Idorsia, Astellas, Novartis, GSK, Roche, support for attending meetings from Pfizer, participation in advisory boards from Biogen. IP reports grants from Aurinia, BMS, GSK, Otsuka, Roche, honoraria and/or consulting fees from Astra Zeneca, GSK, Janssen, Novartis, Otsuka, Roche, participation in advisory boards from Astra Zeneca, GSK, Novartis, Otsuka, medical writing from Astra Zeneca, GSK. JMPR reports grants from GSK, Pfizer, honoraria fees from GSK, Astra Zeneca, Lilly, support for attending meetings from GSK, Astra Zeneca, participation in advisory boards from GSK, Otsuka, Gebro, Astra Zeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, MSD. BAPE reports grants from Janssen, support for attending meetings from Astra Zeneca, participation in advisory boards from Astra Zeneca, GSK. MS reports grants from GSK, Astra Zeneca, honoraria and/or consulting fees from Astra Zeneca, GSK, Otsuka, UCB, participation in advisory boards from GSK. JSS reports grants from AbbVie, Astra Zeneca, Lilly, Galapagos, royalties or licenses from Elsevier, honoraria and/or consulting fees from AbbVie, Galapagos/Gilead, Novartis, BMS, Samsung, Sanofi, Chugai, R-Pharma, Lilly, MSD, Janssen, participation in advisory boards from Astra Zeneca. ES reports stocks in Astra Zeneca. YKOT reports grants from Mitsubishi-Tanabe, Eisai, Chugai, Taisho, consulting fees from Lilly, Astra Zeneca, AbbVie, Gilead, Chugai, Boehringer-Ingelheim, GSK, Eisai, Taisho, BMS, Pfizer, Taiho. MGT reports grants from Genesis, GSK, MSD, UCB, consulting fees from GSK, Lilly and UCB. CW reports grants from Versus Arthritis, British Society for Rheumatology, Lupus UK, honoraria fees from UCB, support for attending meetings from AbbVie. AT reports honoraria fees from UCB, GSK, participation in advisory boards from UCB, Galapagos. GB reports grants from GSK, Astra Zeneca, Pfizer, honoraria and/or consulting fees from Lilly, Aenorasis, Novartis, AstraZeneca, GSK, SOBI, Pfizer, participation in advisory boards from Novartis. DTB reports unrestricted investigational grants from GSK, honoraria and/or consulting fees from GSK, Astra-Zeneca, Pfizer. The remaining authors declare no conflict of interest., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: The goals of this study were to assess the associations of severe nonadherence to hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), objectively assessed by HCQ serum levels, and risks of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares, damage, and mortality rates over five years of follow-up., Methods: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort is an international multicenter initiative (33 centers throughout 11 countries). The serum of patients prescribed HCQ for at least three months at enrollment were analyzed. Severe nonadherence was defined by a serum HCQ level <106 ng/mL or <53 ng/mL for HCQ doses of 400 or 200 mg/day, respectively. Associations with the risk of a flare (defined as a Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 increase ≥4 points, initiation of prednisone or immunosuppressive drugs, or new renal involvement) were studied with logistic regression, and associations with damage (first SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI] increase ≥1 point) and mortality with separate Cox proportional hazard models., Results: Of the 1,849 cohort participants, 660 patients (88% women) were included. Median (interquartile range) serum HCQ was 388 ng/mL (244-566); 48 patients (7.3%) had severe HCQ nonadherence. No covariates were clearly associated with severe nonadherence, which was, however, independently associated with both flare (odds ratio 3.38; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.80-6.42) and an increase in the SDI within each of the first three years (hazard ratio [HR] 1.92 at three years; 95% CI 1.05-3.50). Eleven patients died within five years, including 3 with severe nonadherence (crude HR 5.41; 95% CI 1.43-20.39)., Conclusion: Severe nonadherence was independently associated with the risks of an SLE flare in the following year, early damage, and five-year mortality., (© 2023 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: To estimate direct and indirect costs associated with neuropsychiatric (NP) events in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort., Methods: NP events were documented annually using American College of Rheumatology definitions for NP events and attributed to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) or non-SLE causes. Patients were stratified into 1 of 3 NP states (no, resolved, or new/ongoing NP event). Change in NP status was characterized by interstate transition rates using multistate modeling. Annual direct costs and indirect costs were based on health care use and impaired productivity over the preceding year. Annual costs associated with NP states and NP events were calculated by averaging all observations in each state and adjusted through random-effects regressions. Five- and 10-year costs for NP states were predicted by multiplying adjusted annual costs per state by expected state duration, forecasted using multistate modeling., Results: A total of 1,697 patients (49% White race/ethnicity) were followed for a mean of 9.6 years. NP events (n = 1,971) occurred in 956 patients, 32% attributed to SLE. For SLE and non-SLE NP events, predicted annual, 5-, and 10-year direct costs and indirect costs were higher in new/ongoing versus no events. Direct costs were 1.5-fold higher and indirect costs 1.3-fold higher in new/ongoing versus no events. Indirect costs exceeded direct costs 3.0 to 5.2 fold. Among frequent SLE NP events, new/ongoing seizure disorder and cerebrovascular disease accounted for the largest increases in annual direct costs. For non-SLE NP events, new/ongoing polyneuropathy accounted for the largest increase in annual direct costs, and new/ongoing headache and mood disorder for the largest increases in indirect costs., Conclusion: Patients with new/ongoing SLE or non-SLE NP events incurred higher direct and indirect costs., (© 2023 American College of Rheumatology.)

Objectives: Genetics plays an important role in SLE risk, as well as osteonecrosis (ON), a significant and often debilitating complication of SLE. We aimed to identify genetic risk loci for ON in people with childhood-onset (cSLE) and adult-onset (aSLE) SLE., Methods: We enrolled participants from two tertiary care centres who met classification criteria for SLE. Participants had prospectively collected clinical data and were genotyped on a multiethnic array. Un-genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were imputed, and ancestry was inferred using principal components (PCs). Our outcome was symptomatic ON confirmed by imaging. We completed time-to-ON and logistic regression of ON genome-wide association studies (GWASs) with covariates for sex, age of SLE diagnosis, five PCs for ancestry, corticosteroid use and selected SLE manifestations. We conducted separate analyses for cSLE and aSLE and meta-analysed results using inverse-variance weighting. Genome-wide significance was P < 5 × 10-8., Results: The study included 940 participants with SLE, 87% female and 56% with cSLE. ON was present in 7.6% (n = 71). Median age of SLE diagnosis was 16.9 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 13.5, 29.3), with median follow-up of 8.0 years (IQR: 4.2, 15.7). Meta-GWAS of cSLE and aSLE time-to-ON of 4 431 911 SNPs identified a significant Chr.2 SNP, rs34118383 (minor allele frequency = 0.18), intronic to WIPF1 (hazard ratio = 3.2 [95% CI: 2.2, 4.8]; P = 1.0 × 10-8)., Conclusion: We identified an intronic WIPF1 variant associated with a 3.2 times increased hazard for ON (95% CI: 2.2, 4.8; P = 1.0 × 10-8) during SLE follow-up, independent of corticosteroid exposure. The effect of the SNP on time-to-ON was similar in cSLE and aSLE. This novel discovery represents a potential ON risk locus. Our results warrant replication., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: SRJ reports grants from Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Corbus, GSK, Roche and Merck, and personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim and Ikaria.

Objectives: A novel longitudinal clustering technique was applied to comprehensive autoantibody data from a large, well-characterised, multinational inception systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort to determine profiles predictive of clinical outcomes., Methods: Demographic, clinical and serological data from 805 patients with SLE obtained within 15 months of diagnosis and at 3-year and 5-year follow-up were included. For each visit, sera were assessed for 29 antinuclear antibodies (ANA) immunofluorescence patterns and 20 autoantibodies. K-means clustering on principal component analysis-transformed longitudinal autoantibody profiles identified discrete phenotypic clusters. One-way analysis of variance compared cluster enrolment demographics and clinical outcomes at 10-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model estimated the HR for survival adjusting for age of disease onset., Results: Cluster 1 (n=137, high frequency of anti-Smith, anti-U1RNP, AC-5 (large nuclear speckled pattern) and high ANA titres) had the highest cumulative disease activity and immunosuppressants/biologics use at year 10. Cluster 2 (n=376, low anti-double stranded DNA (dsDNA) and ANA titres) had the lowest disease activity, frequency of lupus nephritis and immunosuppressants/biologics use. Cluster 3 (n=80, highest frequency of all five antiphospholipid antibodies) had the highest frequency of seizures and hypocomplementaemia. Cluster 4 (n=212) also had high disease activity and was characterised by multiple autoantibody reactivity including to antihistone, anti-dsDNA, antiribosomal P, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen A or Ro60, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen B or La, anti-Ro52/Tripartite Motif Protein 21, antiproliferating cell nuclear antigen and anticentromere B). Clusters 1 (adjusted HR 2.60 (95% CI 1.12 to 6.05), p=0.03) and 3 (adjusted HR 2.87 (95% CI 1.22 to 6.74), p=0.02) had lower survival compared with cluster 2., Conclusion: Four discrete SLE patient longitudinal autoantibody clusters were predictive of long-term disease activity, organ involvement, treatment requirements and mortality risk., Competing Interests: Competing interests: MYC has received consulting fees from Janssen, AstraZeneca, Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals and MitogenDx. AEC has received consulting fees, speaking fees and/or honoraria from AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb and GlaxoSmithKline (

Objective: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC), American College of Rheumatology (ACR), and the Lupus Foundation of America are developing a revised systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) damage index (the SLICC/ACR Damage Index [SDI]). Shifts in the concept of damage in SLE have occurred with new insights into disease manifestations, diagnostics, and therapy. We evaluated contemporary constructs in SLE damage to inform development of the revised SDI., Methods: We conducted a 3-part qualitative study of international SLE experts. Facilitated small groups evaluated the construct underlying the concept of damage in SLE. A consensus meeting using nominal group technique was conducted to achieve agreement on aspects of the conceptual framework and scope of the revised damage index. The framework was finally reviewed and agreed upon by the entire group., Results: Fifty participants from 13 countries were included. The 8 thematic clusters underlying the construct of SLE damage were purpose, items, weighting, reversibility, impact, time frame, attribution, and perspective. The revised SDI will be a discriminative index to measure morbidity in SLE, independent of activity or impact on the patient, and should be related to mortality. The SDI is primarily intended for research purposes and should take a life-course approach. Damage can occur before a diagnosis of SLE but should be attributable to SLE. Damage to an organ is irreversible, but the functional consequences on that organ may improve over time through physiological adaptation or treatment., Conclusion: We identified shifts in the paradigm of SLE damage and developed a unifying conceptual framework. These data form the groundwork for the next phases of SDI development., (© 2021 American College of Rheumatology.)

Antimalarial-induced cardiomyopathy is under-recognized in clinical practice and there is limited data on the evolution of cardiac imaging abnormalities after cessation of anti-malarial therapy. In this case series of 9 patients with antimalarial-induced cardiomyopathy, follow-up cardiac magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated interval increase in late gadolinium enhancement extent in 89% of patients and interval decrease in left ventricular ejection fraction in all, despite cessation of anti-malarial therapy. Progression of cardiac abnormalities despite cessation of therapy underscores the important role of imaging in the early recognition of antimalarial-related treatment changes., Competing Interests: K.H. has received a speaker’s honorarium from Sanofi-Genzyme, Amicus, and Medscape. P.T. has received speaker’s honorarium from Amgen, BI, and Takeda. The remaining authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are at risk of cardiac disease including antimalarial-induced cardiomyopathy (AMIC). The purpose of this study is to evaluate cardiac magnetic resonance imaging parametric mapping findings in SLE patients with AMIC and investigate the relationship of T1/T2 mapping to antimalarial (AM) treatment duration., Materials and Methods: All patients with SLE who had undergone cardiac magnetic resonance imaging with T1/T2 mapping for evaluation of suspected cardiac disease between 2018 and 2021 were evaluated and compared with healthy controls. To facilitate comparison between scanners, T1/T2 values were converted to a z -score using scanner-specific local reference values. Patients were classified into 3 groups: AMIC, myocarditis, and other (no AMIC or myocarditis)., Results: Forty-five SLE patients (47±17 y, 80% female; 8 [18%] with AMIC and 7 [16%] with myocarditis) and 30 healthy controls (39±15 y, 60% female) were included. Patients with AMIC had higher T1 and T2 compared with controls ( z -score 1.1±1.3 vs. 0±0.6, P =0.01 and 1.7±1.1 vs. 0±1.0, P <0.01, respectively) and lower values compared with those with myocarditis (3.7±1.6, P <0.01 and 4.0±2.0, P <0.01, respectively). T1 correlated negatively with AM treatment duration in patients without AMIC or myocarditis ( r =-0.36, P =0.048) and positively in patients with AMIC ( r =0.92, P =0.001). AM treatment duration did not correlate significantly with T1 in patients with myocarditis or with T2 in any group., Conclusions: The relationship between T1 and AM treatment duration differed between groups. Native T1 decreases with longer treatment in patients without AMIC or myocarditis, possibility due to glycosphingolipid accumulation. In patients with AMIC, increasing T1 with longer treatment could reflect fibrosis., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To evaluate whether a change in the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria threshold score affects accurate classification of SLE cases compared to disease-based control subjects. We evaluated a range of threshold scores to determine the score that maximizes the accurate classification of early SLE., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study comparing SLE cases and control patients. A EULAR/ACR criteria score was calculated using baseline information. Sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios (+LRs), and negative likelihood ratios (-LRs) with 95% CIs were used to evaluate operating characteristics. Threshold scores of 6 to 12 were evaluated in subjects with early disease (ie, disease duration of ≤ 5 years). +LRs > 10 and -LRs < 0.1 provide evidence to rule in or rule out SLE., Results: A total of 2764 patients were included: 1980 SLE cases who fulfilled either the ACR or Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics criteria and 784 control subjects. The EULAR/ACR SLE criteria had a sensitivity of 98% (95% CI 97-98), a specificity of 99% (95% CI 98-100), a +LR of 95.5 (95% CI 48.0-190), and a -LR 0.03 (95% CI 0.02-0.03). The criteria operated well in those with early disease, in women, in men, and in White, Black, Chinese, and Filipino people. A score of 10 maximized the accurate classification of patients with early disease (+LR 174.4, 95% CI 43.8-694.6; -LR 0.03, 95% CI 0.02-0.04). An increase in the threshold score from 10 to 11 resulted in significant worsening in the -LR (threshold score 10: -LR 0.03, 95% CI 0.02-0.03 vs threshold score 11: -LR 0.05, 95% CI 0.04-0.06)., Conclusion: The EULAR/ACR SLE classification criteria threshold score of 10 performs well, particularly among those with early disease and across sexes and ethnicities., (Copyright © 2023 by the Journal of Rheumatology.)

Introduction: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a multisystem disease with varied manifestations and course. Variation in presentation among patients, and within the same patient, there may be varied manifestations over time. It has been difficult to measure the extent of disease activity accurately. Several investigators and groups have developed definitions of disease activity and methods to measure it. Consequently, there are currently several instruments to measure disease activity as well as damage in patients with SLE., Areas Covered: This review covers currently available evidence on measures of disease activity in SLE. It discusses potential avenues for further development of new measures and the refinement of existing tools to improve disease activity measures in research and clinical care settings., Expert Opinion: Given the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease, further work and tools are needed to assess disease activity better. Organ-specific measures for cutaneous, renal, and joint manifestations are needed for a detailed assessment of disease activity in conjunction with the use of disease generic tools (e.g. SLEDAI). New tools such as the SLE Disease Activity Index-Glucocorticoid Index (SLEDAI-2 KG) incorporating glucocorticoid doses to describe disease activity, SLE-DAS and SLEDAI-2 K RI-50 to record partial improvements could also be helpful.

Objectives: To determine the ability of a EULAR/ACR SLE criteria score ≥20 to predict damage accrual and mortality., Methods: Inception SLE patients from the Toronto Lupus Clinic recruited in the first 12 months after diagnosis were included. A EULAR/ACR criteria score was calculated based on the baseline clinical and laboratory information. A EULAR/ACR score of 20 was used as a threshold to compare outcomes between groups (EULAR/ACR score <20 vs ≥20), based on receiver operating characteristic analysis., Results: 867 SLE patients were included. The group of patients with the higher score accrued more damage compared to the group with the lower score in the first 10 years after diagnosis (210 [46%] vs 167 [40%] for patients with a score ≥20 vs < 20 respectively p = 0.02). This was corroborated by multivariable regression analysis (HR 1.34, p = 0.007). Patients with a score of ≥20 had a higher risk of death (HR 2.34, p = 0.001). When excluding patients who had kidney involvement at baseline, the group with the higher score continued to be at a higher risk of damage accrued (HR 1.46, p = 0.006), although there was no difference in mortality between groups (p = 0.54)., Conclusion: A EULAR/ACR criteria score ≥20 at baseline is an indicator of long-term outcomes, especially damage accrual., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interests No potential conflicts of interest relevant to this article were reported., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Objective: To evaluate hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)-related retinal toxicity in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort., Methods: Data were collected at annual study visits between 1999 and 2019. We followed patients with incident SLE from first visit on HCQ (time zero) up to time of retinal toxicity (outcome), death, loss-to-follow-up or end of study. Potential retinal toxicity was identified from SLICC Damage Index scores; cases were confirmed with chart review. Using cumulative HCQ duration as the time axis, we constructed univariate Cox regression models to assess if covariates (ie, HCQ daily dose/kg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at SLE onset, education, body mass index, renal damage, chloroquine use) were associated with HCQ-related retinal toxicity., Results: We studied 1460 patients (89% female, 52% white). Retinal toxicity was confirmed in 11 patients (incidence 1.0 per 1000 person-years, 0.8% overall). Average cumulative time on HCQ in those with retinal toxicity was 7.4 (SD 3.2) years; the first case was detected 4 years after HCQ initiation. Risk of retinal toxicity was numerically higher in older patients at SLE diagnosis (univariate HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09)., Conclusions: This is the first assessment of HCQ and retinal disease in incident SLE. We did not see any cases of retinopathy within the first 4 years of HCQ. Cumulative HCQ may be associated with increased risk. Ophthalmology monitoring (and formal assessment of cases of potential toxicity, by a retinal specialist) remains important, especially in patients on HCQ for 10+ years, those needing higher doses and those of older age at SLE diagnosis., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All the following relationships are outside the submitted work. AEC—consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, Exagen Diagnostics and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). CG—consulting fees from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Morton Grove Pharmaceutical (MGP), Sanofi and UCB. RR-G—consulting fees from GSK, Immuncor and ThermoFisher. DI—consulting fees from Amgen, Merck Serono, AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly (the honoraria are passed onto a local arthritis charity). AR—consulting fees from Lilly. PRF—participation in advisory boards from AbbVie, AstraZeneca and Lilly. MK—consulting fees from GSK. MI—consulting fees from AbbVie, UCB, Novartis, Janssen and Lilly., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To determine the independent impact of different definitions of remission and low disease activity (LDA) on damage accrual., Methods: Patients with ≥2 annual assessments from a longitudinal multinational inception lupus cohort were studied. Five mutually exclusive disease activity states were defined: remission off-treatment: clinical Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (cSLEDAI)-2K=0, without prednisone or immunosuppressants; remission on-treatment: cSLEDAI-2K score=0, prednisone ≤5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; low disease activity Toronto cohort (LDA-TC): cSLEDAI-2K score of ≤2, without prednisone or immunosuppressants; modified lupus low disease activity (mLLDAS): Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index-2K score of 4 with no activity in major organ/systems, no new disease activity, prednisone ≤7.5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; active: all remaining visits. Only the most stringent definition was used per visit. Antimalarials were allowed in all. The proportion of time that patients were in a specific state at each visit since cohort entry was determined. Damage accrual was ascertained with the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI). Univariable and multivariable generalised estimated equation negative binomial regression models were used. Time-dependent covariates were determined at the same annual visit as the disease activity state but the SDI at the subsequent visit., Results: There were 1652 patients, 1464 (88.6%) female, mean age at diagnosis 34.2 (SD 13.4) years and mean follow-up time of 7.7 (SD 4.8) years. Being in remission off-treatment, remission on-treatment, LDA-TC and mLLDAS (per 25% increase) were each associated with a lower probability of damage accrual (remission off-treatment: incidence rate ratio (IRR)=0.75, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.81; remission on-treatment: IRR=0.68, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.75; LDA: IRR=0.79, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.92; and mLLDAS: IRR=0.76, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.89))., Conclusions: Remission on-treatment and off-treatment, LDA-TC and mLLDAS were associated with less damage accrual, even adjusting for possible confounders and effect modifiers., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All the following relationships are outside the submitted work. MF-UG: research support from Janssen and Pfizer. CG: consulting fees from the AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Centers for Disease Control, Morton Grove Pharmaceutical (MGP), Sanofi and UCB. AEC: consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, Exagen Diagnostics and GlaxoSmithKline. DAI: consulting fees from Amgen, Merck Serono, AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly (the honoraria are passed onto a local arthritis charity). AR: consulting fees from Lilly. PRF: participation on advisory boards from AbbVie, AstraZeneca and Lilly. MAK: consulting fees from GSK. MI: consulting fees from AbbVie, UCB, Novartis, Janssen and Lilly., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Antimalarial medications (AMs) are central to the management of SLE. We investigated the rate of flare in lupus patients who withdrew AM after achieving clinical remission for at least one year, compared to those who continued therapy and compared flare rates in cases who tapered AM versus abruptly withdrew., Methods: Cases achieved clinical remission for at least one year then ceased their AM. Index date was defined as the date of complete AM cessation. Controls achieved clinical remission for at least one year and continued AM. Controls were matched according to the duration of AM before remission and the duration of therapy from remission date to case index date. All patients had ≥ 2 years of follow up., Results: Of 1573 patients on AM, 165 achieved a one-year remission and then ceased their AM. 96 had adequate follow-up, 88 were successfully matched to one control and 85 to 2 controls for a total of 173 controls. Flare occurred in 61.4% of cases and 45.1% of controls (p = 0.002). 52.3% patients who withdrew AM later restarted it due to disease flare. 88% recaptured control or improved, while 12% did not. Patients who tapered had significantly fewer flares (45.9% vs. 72.6%; p = 0.01)., Conclusion: AMs aid in preventing disease flare even in patients who have achieved prolonged clinical remission. Tapering AM results in lower flare rates. Hence, except in the setting of toxicity, cessation of antimalarial therapy in patients with prolonged disease quiescence is feasible using a slow taper., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Objectives: A perception derived from cross-sectional studies of small systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohorts is that there is a marked discrepancy between antinuclear antibody (ANA) assays, which impacts on clinicians' approach to diagnosis and follow-up. We compared three ANA assays in a longitudinal analysis of a large international incident SLE cohort retested regularly and followed for 5 years., Methods: Demographic, clinical and serological data was from 805 SLE patients at enrolment, year 3 and 5. Two HEp-2 indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA1, IFA2), an ANA ELISA, and SLE-related autoantibodies were performed in one laboratory. Frequencies of positivity, titres or absorbance units (AU), and IFA patterns were compared using McNemar, Wilcoxon and kappa statistics, respectively., Results: At enrolment, ANA positivity (≥1:80) was 96.1% by IFA1 (median titre 1:1280 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)), 98.3% by IFA2 (1:2560 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)) and 96.6% by ELISA (176.3 AU (IQR 106.4 AU-203.5 AU)). At least one ANA assay was positive for 99.6% of patients at enrolment. At year 5, ANA positivity by IFAs (IFA1 95.2%; IFA2 98.9%) remained high, while there was a decrease in ELISA positivity (91.3%, p<0.001). Overall, there was >91% agreement in ANA positivity at all time points and ≥71% agreement in IFA patterns between IFA1 and IFA2., Conclusion: In recent-onset SLE, three ANA assays demonstrated commutability with a high proportion of positivity and titres or AU. However, over 5 years follow-up, there was modest variation in ANA assay performance. In clinical situations where the SLE diagnosis is being considered, a negative test by either the ELISA or HEp-2 IFA may require reflex testing., Competing Interests: Competing interests: MYC has received consulting fees from Janssen and MitogenDx (less than US$10 000). AEC has received consulting fees from AstraZeneca, BristolMyersSquibb, and Glaxo Smith Kline (less than US$10 000 each). KCH has consulted for or collaborated on research projects with Janssen, Glaxo Smith Kline, Exagen Diagnostics, Eli Lilly, Merck Serono, Astra Zeneca and Neutrolis (less than US$10 000 each). CG has received consulting fees, speaking fees, and/or honoraria from AstraZeneca, Abbvie, Amgen, UCB, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck Serono and BMS (less than US$10 000 each) and grants from UCB. Grants from UCB were not to CG but to Sandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust. DDG received consulting fees, speaking fees, and/or honoraria from GlaxoSmithKline (less than $10 000). INB has received consulting fees, speaking fees and/or honoraria from Eli Lilly, UCB, Roche, Merck Serono, MedImmune (less than US$10 000 each) and grants from UCB, Genzyme Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline. EMG has paid consultation with investment analysts Guidepoint Global Gerson Lerman Group.Dr. Kalunian has received grants from UCB, Human Genome Sciences/GlaxoSmithKline, Takeda, Ablynx, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Pfizer and Kyowa Hakko Kirin, and has received consulting fees from Exagen Diagnostics, Genentech, Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Anthera (less than US$10 000 each). MJF is Director of Mitogen Diagnostics Corporation (Calgary, AB Canada) and a consultant to Werfen International (Barcelona, Spain), Grifols (Barcelona, Spain), Janssen Pharmaceuticals of Johnson & Johnson and Alexion Canada (less than US$10 000 each). The remainder of the authors have no disclosures., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) frailty index (FI) predicts mortality and damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), but its association with hospitalizations has not been described. Our objective was to estimate the association of baseline SLICC-FI values with future hospitalizations in the SLICC inception cohort., Methods: Baseline SLICC-FI scores were calculated. The number and duration of inpatient hospitalizations during follow-up were recorded. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the association between baseline SLICC-FI values and the rate of hospitalizations per patient-year of follow-up. Linear regression was used to estimate the association of baseline SLICC-FI scores with the proportion of follow-up time spent in the hospital. Multivariable models were adjusted for relevant baseline characteristics., Results: The 1,549 patients with SLE eligible for this analysis were mostly female (88.7%), with a mean ± SD age of 35.7 ± 13.3 years and a median disease duration of 1.2 years (interquartile range 0.9-1.5) at baseline. Mean ± SD baseline SLICC-FI was 0.17 ± 0.08. During mean ± SD follow-up of 7.2 ± 3.7 years, 614 patients (39.6%) experienced 1,570 hospitalizations. Higher baseline SLICC-FI values (per 0.05 increment) were associated with more frequent hospitalizations during follow-up, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.21 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.13-1.30) after adjustment for baseline age, sex, glucocorticoid use, immunosuppressive use, ethnicity/location, SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 score, SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index score, and disease duration. Among patients with ≥1 hospitalization, higher baseline SLICC-FI values predicted a greater proportion of follow-up time spent hospitalized (relative rate 1.09 [95% CI 1.02-1.16])., Conclusion: The SLICC-FI predicts future hospitalizations among incident SLE patients, further supporting the SLICC-FI as a valid health measure in SLE., (© 2020 American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: Multiple guidelines recommend continuing hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for SLE during pregnancy based on observational data. The goal of this individual patient data meta-analysis was to identify the potential benefits and harms of HCQ use within lupus pregnancies., Methods: Eligible studies included prospectively collected pregnancies in women with lupus. After a systematic literature search, seven datasets meeting inclusion criteria were obtained. Pregnancy outcomes and lupus activity were compared for pregnancies with a visit in the first trimester in women who did or did not take HCQ throughout pregnancy. Birth defects were not systematically collected. This analysis was conducted in each dataset, and results were aggregated to provide a pooled OR., Results: Seven cohorts provided 938 pregnancies in 804 women. After selecting one pregnancy per patient with a first trimester visit, 668 pregnancies were included; 63% took HCQ throughout pregnancy. Compared with pregnancies without HCQ, those with HCQ had lower odds of highly active lupus, but did not have different odds of fetal loss, preterm delivery or pre-eclampsia. Among women with low lupus activity, HCQ reduced the odds of preterm delivery., Conclusions: This large study of prospectively-collected lupus pregnancies demonstrates a decrease in lupus activity among woman who continue HCQ through pregnancy and no harm to pregnancy outcomes. Like all studies of HCQ in lupus pregnancy, this study is confounded by indication and non-adherence. As this study confirms the safety of HCQ and diminished SLE activity with use, it is consistent with current recommendations to continue HCQ throughout pregnancy., Competing Interests: Competing interests: MC: Funding: AHRQ, Arthritis Foundation; Grants: GSK; Consulting and Advisory Board: UCB. AE: Grant funding: NIH NCATS Award 1KL2TR002554. SB: Grants: NIH, US FDA, PCORI, RRF, CARRA; Consulting: UCB; Travel: FDA; Leadership: CARRA Assistant Scientific Director. DDG: Grants and/or consulting fees from AstraZeneca; Leadership: Member of the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics group; served on the Medical advisory board of the Lupus foundation of America. MAP: Grant NIH RO-1 AR069572., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: To evaluate systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares following hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) reduction or discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance., Methods: We analysed prospective data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) cohort, enrolled from 33 sites within 15 months of SLE diagnosis and followed annually (1999-2019). We evaluated person-time contributed while on the initial HCQ dose ('maintenance'), comparing this with person-time contributed after a first dose reduction, and after a first HCQ discontinuation. We estimated time to first flare, defined as either subsequent need for therapy augmentation, increase of ≥4 points in the SLE Disease Activity Index-2000, or hospitalisation for SLE. We estimated adjusted HRs (aHRs) with 95% CIs associated with reducing/discontinuing HCQ (vs maintenance). We also conducted separate multivariable hazard regressions in each HCQ subcohort to identify factors associated with flare., Results: We studied 1460 (90% female) patients initiating HCQ. aHRs for first SLE flare were 1.20 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.38) and 1.56 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.86) for the HCQ reduction and discontinuation groups, respectively, versus HCQ maintenance. Patients with low educational level were at particular risk of flaring after HCQ discontinuation (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.87). Prednisone use at time-zero was associated with over 1.5-fold increase in flare risk in all HCQ subcohorts., Conclusions: SLE flare risk was higher after HCQ taper/discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. Decisions to maintain, reduce or stop HCQ may affect specific subgroups differently, including those on prednisone and/or with low education. Further study of special groups (eg, seniors) may be helpful., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All the following relationships are outside the submitted work. Dr AEC: consulting fees from AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, Exagen Diagnostics and GlaxoSmithKline. Dr CG: consulting fees from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Morton Grove Pharmaceutical (MGP), Sanofi and UCB. Dr RR-G: consulting fees from GSK, Immuncor and ThermoFisher. Dr DAI: consulting fees from Amgen, Merck Serono, AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly (the honoraria are passed onto a local arthritis charity). Dr AR: consulting fees from Lilly. Dr PRF: participation on advisory boards from AbbVie, AstraZeneca and Lilly. Dr MAK: consulting fees from GSK. Dr MI: consulting fees from AbbVie, UCB, Novartis, Janssen and Lilly., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To assess cancer risk factors in incident systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)., Methods: Clinical variables and cancer outcomes were assessed annually among incident SLE patients. Multivariate hazard regression models (overall risk and most common cancers) included demographic characteristics and time-dependent medications (corticosteroids, antimalarial drugs, immunosuppressants), smoking, and the adjusted mean Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 score., Results: Among 1,668 patients (average 9 years follow-up), 65 cancers occurred: 15 breast, 10 nonmelanoma skin, 7 lung, 6 hematologic, 6 prostate, 5 melanoma, 3 cervical, 3 renal, 2 each gastric, head and neck, and thyroid, and 1 each rectal, sarcoma, thymoma, and uterine cancers. Half of the cancers (including all lung cancers) occurred in past/current smokers, versus one-third of patients without cancer. Multivariate analyses indicated that overall cancer risk was related primarily to male sex and older age at SLE diagnosis. In addition, smoking was associated with lung cancer. For breast cancer risk, age was positively associated and antimalarial drugs were negatively associated. Antimalarial drugs and higher disease activity were also negatively associated with nonmelanoma skin cancer risk, whereas age and cyclophosphamide were positively associated. Disease activity was associated positively with hematologic and negatively with nonmelanoma skin cancer risk., Conclusion: Smoking is a key modifiable risk factor, especially for lung cancer, in SLE. Immunosuppressive medications were not clearly associated with higher risk except for cyclophosphamide and nonmelanoma skin cancer. Antimalarials were negatively associated with breast cancer and nonmelanoma skin cancer risk. SLE activity was associated positively with hematologic cancer and negatively with nonmelanoma skin cancer. Since the absolute number of cancers was small, additional follow-up will help consolidate these findings., (© 2020, American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: To determine predictors of change in neuropsychiatric (NP) event status in a large, prospective, international inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)., Methods: Upon enrollment and annually thereafter, NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes and physician-determined resolution were documented. Factors potentially associated with the onset and resolution of NP events were determined by time-to-event analysis using a multistate modeling structure., Results: NP events occurred in 955 (52.3%) of 1,827 patients, and 593 (31.0%) of 1,910 unique events were attributed to SLE. For SLE-associated NP (SLE NP) events, multivariate analysis revealed a positive association with male sex (P = 0.028), concurrent non-SLE NP events excluding headache (P < 0.001), active SLE (P = 0.012), and glucocorticoid use (P = 0.008). There was a negative association with Asian race (P = 0.002), postsecondary education (P = 0.001), and treatment with immunosuppressive drugs (P = 0.019) or antimalarial drugs (P = 0.056). For non-SLE NP events excluding headache, there was a positive association with concurrent SLE NP events (P < 0.001) and a negative association with African race (P = 0.012) and Asian race (P < 0.001). NP events attributed to SLE had a higher resolution rate than non-SLE NP events, with the exception of headache, which had comparable resolution rates. For SLE NP events, multivariate analysis revealed that resolution was more common in patients of Asian race (P = 0.006) and for central/focal NP events (P < 0.001). For non-SLE NP events, resolution was more common in patients of African race (P = 0.017) and less common in patients who were older at SLE diagnosis (P < 0.001)., Conclusion: In a large and long-term study of the occurrence and resolution of NP events in SLE, we identified subgroups with better and worse prognosis. The course of NP events differs greatly depending on their nature and attribution., (© 2021, American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: In systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), disease activity and glucocorticoid (GC) exposure are known to contribute to irreversible organ damage. We aimed to examine the association between GC exposure and organ damage occurrence., Methods: We conducted a literature search (PubMed (Medline), Embase and Cochrane January 1966-October 2021). We identified original longitudinal observational studies reporting GC exposure as the proportion of users and/or GC use with dose information as well as the occurrence of new major organ damage as defined in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index. Meta-regression analyses were performed. Reviews, case-reports and studies with <5 years of follow-up, <50 patients, different outcomes and special populations were excluded., Results: We selected 49 articles including 16 224 patients, 14 755 (90.9%) female with a mean age and disease duration of 35.1 years and of 37.1 months. The mean follow-up time was 104.9 months. For individual damage items, the average daily GC dose was associated with the occurrence of overall cardiovascular events and with osteoporosis with fractures. A higher average cumulative dose adjusted (or not)/number of follow-up years and a higher proportion of patients on GC were associated with the occurrence of osteonecrosis., Conclusions: We confirm associations of GC use with three specific damage items. In treating patients with SLE, our aim should be to maximise the efficacy of GC and to minimise their harms., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JB and RFvV are Editors-in-Chief of Lupus Science & Medicine., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Vitamin D (25(OH)D) deficiency and metabolic syndrome (MetS) may both contribute to increased cardiovascular risk in SLE. We aimed to examine the association of demographic factors, SLE phenotype, therapy and vitamin D levels with MetS and insulin resistance., Methods: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) enrolled patients recently diagnosed with SLE (<15 months) from 33 centres across 11 countries from 2000. Clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data were collected. Vitamin D level was defined according to tertiles based on distribution across this cohort, which were set at T1 (10-36 nmol/l), T2 (37-60 nmol/l) and T3 (61-174 nmol/l). MetS was defined according to the 2009 consensus statement from the International Diabetes Federation. Insulin resistance was determined using the HOMA-IR model. Linear and logistic regressions were used to assess the association of variables with vitamin D levels., Results: Of the 1847 patients, 1163 (63%) had vitamin D measured and 398 (34.2%) subjects were in the lowest 25(OH)D tertile. MetS was present in 286 of 860 (33%) patients whose status could be determined. Patients with lower 25(OH)D were more likely to have MetS and higher HOMA-IR. The MetS components, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia and decreased high-density lipoprotein (HDL) were all significantly associated with lower 25(OH)D. Increased average glucocorticoid exposure was associated with higher insulin resistance., Conclusions: MetS and insulin resistance are associated with lower vitamin D in patients with SLE. Further studies could determine whether vitamin D repletion confers better control of these cardiovascular risk factors and improve long-term outcomes in SLE., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To compare the performance of the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) and the SLEDAI-2K Glucocorticoids (SLEDAI-2KG) indices in identifying responders to standard of care therapy., Methods: Data from adult patients seen between 1995 and 2018 at the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic were analyzed. Patients with active disease (SLEDAI-2K score ≥6) and receiving prednisone ≥5 mg/day, and with a follow-up visit at 9 months, were studied. Response to standard of care therapy at first follow-up visit was assessed using the SLEDAI-2K and SLEDAI-2KG. The performances of the SLEDAI-2K and SLEDAI-2KG were compared using a cutoff point of 4., Results: In a cohort of 188, the majority of patients were female (86.0%) and White (47.9%). Of 188 patients, 145 (77.1%) were responders and had a decrease in SLEDAI-2K score of ≥4. The SLEDAI-2KG identified 142 (97.9%) responders among the SLEDAI-2K responders. More importantly, the SLEDAI-2KG identified 11 (25.6%) additional responders among SLEDAI-2K nonresponders (n = 43). This resulted from the ability of the SLEDAI-2KG to account for the decrease in glucocorticoids dose., Conclusion: The SLEDAI-2KG provides a novel concept for the assessment of lupus disease activity while accounting for glucocorticoids dosage to reflect on disease activity overall at a particular visit. The SLEDAI-2KG accounts for the disease activity for each descriptor while also accounting for the current glucocorticoids dosage. The SLEDAI-2KG adds 1 additional variable (glucocorticoids dosage) to the SLEDAI-2K, which could alter response rates in drug trials and observational studies., (© 2020, American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) 2012 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria and the revised American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1997 criteria are list based, counting each SLE manifestation equally. We derived a classification rule based on giving variable weights to the SLICC criteria and compared its performance to the revised ACR 1997, the unweighted SLICC 2012, and the newly reported European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR)/ACR 2019 criteria sets., Methods: The physician-rated patient scenarios used to develop the SLICC 2012 classification criteria were reemployed to devise a new weighted classification rule using multiple linear regression. The performance of the rule was evaluated on an independent set of expert-diagnosed patient scenarios and compared to the performance of the previously reported classification rules., Results: The weighted SLICC criteria and the EULAR/ACR 2019 criteria had less sensitivity but better specificity compared to the list-based revised ACR 1997 and SLICC 2012 classification criteria. There were no statistically significant differences between any pair of rules with respect to overall agreement with the physician diagnosis., Conclusion: The 2 new weighted classification rules did not perform better than the existing list-based rules in terms of overall agreement on a data set originally generated to assess the SLICC criteria. Given the added complexity of summing weights, researchers may prefer the unweighted SLICC criteria. However, the performance of a classification rule will always depend on the populations from which the cases and non-cases are derived and whether the goal is to prioritize sensitivity or specificity., (© 2020, American College of Rheumatology.)

To estimate the level of medication adherence and barriers to adherence among systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Patients taking antimalarials, immunosuppressives, and/or steroids to treat SLE were included. Adherence was measured using the Medication Adherence Self Report Inventory (MASRI) and adherence rates < 80% were considered nonadherent while rates ≥ 80% sufficiently adherent. Pill counts were conducted in a proportion of participants. Barriers to adherence were identified using the Identification of Medication Adherence Barriers Questionnaire 30 (IMAB-Q 30). Associations between adherence and patient demographics and disease-specific characteristics were explored. A total of 94 patients were studied and 28 pill counts conducted. 10 patients were classified as nonadherent and 84 patients as sufficiently adherent. 46% of patients were taking steroids, 77.7% antimalarials, and 55.3% immunosuppressives. 88% of patients were taking ≥ 1 medication for non-SLE conditions. The mean medication adherence rate for the SLE patients was 90.7%. Important barriers to adherence reported by nonadherent patients were: concern about harmful side effects (50%), being easily distracted (50%), life getting in the way (50%), being unsure or disagreeing that their condition will worsen without medications (50%), and having personal reasons for not taking medications (50%). Non-adherent patients reported significantly more barriers than sufficiently adherent patients (p < 0.001). The adherence rate in our population was higher than expected, reaching 90%. Barriers to medication adherence were identified and should be addressed on a population and individualized basis to improve patient outcomes.

Objective: Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA is a common isotype of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I in SLE. Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I was not included in the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria, but was included in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) criteria. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of anti-beta 2-glycoprotein I IgA in SLE versus other rheumatic diseases. In addition, we examined the association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and disease manifestations in SLE., Methods: The dataset consisted of 1384 patients, 657 with a consensus physician diagnosis of SLE and 727 controls with other rheumatic diseases. Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I isotypes were measured by ELISA. Patients with a consensus diagnosis of SLE were compared to controls with respect to presence of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I. Among patients with SLE, we assessed the association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and clinical manifestations., Results: The prevalence of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA was 14% in SLE patients and 7% in rheumatic disease controls (odds ratio, OR 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.3). It was more common in SLE patients who were younger patients and of African descent (p = 0.019). Eleven percent of SLE patients had anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA alone (no anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgG or IgM). There was a significant association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and anti-dsDNA (p = 0.001) and the other antiphospholipid antibodies (p = 0.0004). There was no significant correlation of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA with any of the other ACR or SLICC clinical criteria for SLE. Those with anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA tended to have a history of thrombosis (12% vs 6%, p = 0.071), but the difference was not statistically significant., Conclusion: We found the anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA isotype to be more common in patients with SLE and in particular, with African descent. It could occur alone without other isotypes.

Background/objectives: The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 2019 classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus system showed high specificity, while attaining also high sensitivity. We hereby analysed the performance of the individual criteria items and their contribution to the overall performance of the criteria., Methods: We combined the EULAR/ACR derivation and validation cohorts for a total of 1197 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and n=1074 non-SLE patients with a variety of conditions mimicking SLE, such as other autoimmune diseases, and calculated the sensitivity and specificity for antinuclear antibodies (ANA) and the 23 specific criteria items. We also tested performance omitting the EULAR/ACR criteria attribution rule, which defines that items are only counted if not more likely explained by a cause other than SLE., Results: Positive ANA, the new entry criterion, was 99.5% sensitive, but only 19.4% specific, against a non-SLE population that included other inflammatory rheumatic, infectious, malignant and metabolic diseases. The specific criteria items were highly variable in sensitivity (from 0.42% for delirium and 1.84% for psychosis to 75.6% for antibodies to double-stranded DNA), but their specificity was uniformly high, with low C3 or C4 (83.0%) and leucopenia <4.000/mm³ (83.8%) at the lowest end. Unexplained fever was 95.3% specific in this cohort. Applying the attribution rule improved specificity, particularly for joint involvement., Conclusions: Changing the position of the highly sensitive, non-specific ANA to an entry criterion and the attribution rule resulted in a specificity of >80% for all items, explaining the higher overall specificity of the criteria set., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To determine the ominosity of the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Classification Criteria by determining its predictive role for disease severity in the first 5 years following diagnosis., Methods: 867 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) from the Toronto Lupus Clinic were included (all first 12 months after SLE diagnosis). The EULAR/ACR criteria score was calculated based on baseline information. To determine disease severity in the first 5 years after diagnosis, adjusted mean SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 (AMS), flares, remission and immunosuppressive treatment were used as outcomes. The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) registry comprised the validation cohort., Results: Based on receiver operating characteristic analysis, a EULAR/ACR score of 20 was used as a threshold to compare outcomes between groups. In the first 5 years of disease course, patients with a score of ≥20 had higher AMS scores (p<0.001) and were more likely to ever experience a flare (p<0.001). These patients had lower probabilities of achieving remission and higher requirements for immunosuppressives. Results were confirmed in the SLICC validation cohort. Patients with a score of ≥20 had higher AMS during the first 5 years of disease (5.4 vs 3.1% and ≥20 vs <20 respectively, p≤0.001). The score correlated with AMS (r=0.43, p≤0.001) in the same time frame., Conclusion: A EULAR/ACR score of ≥20 is an indicator of ominosity in SLE. Patients with a score of ≥20 were characterised by a more active disease course throughout the first 5 years. These criteria provide prognostic information regarding disease severity in the first 5 years following diagnosis., Competing Interests: Competing interests: SRJ reports grants from Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Corbus, GSK, Roche, Merck and personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim and Ikaria., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Specific risk alleles for childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus SLE (cSLE) vs adult-onset SLE (aSLE) patients have not been identified. The aims of this study were to determine if there is an association (1) between non-HLA-related genetic risk score (GRS) and age of SLE diagnosis, and (2) between HLA-related GRS and age of SLE diagnosis., Methods: Genomic DNA was obtained from 2001 multiethnic patients and genotyped using the Immunochip. Following quality control, genetic risk counting (GRCS), weighted (GRWS), standardized counting (GRSCS), and standardized weighted (GRSWS) scores were calculated based on independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms from validated SLE loci. Scores were analyzed in a regression model and adjusted by sex and ancestral population., Results: The analyzed cohort consisted of 1540 patients: 1351 females and 189 males (675 cSLE and 865 aSLE). There were significant negative associations between all non-HLA GRS and age of SLE diagnosis: P = 0.011 and r 2 = 0.175 for GRWS; P = 0.008 and r 2 = 0.178 for GRSCS; P = 0.002 and r 2 = 0.176 for GRSWS (higher GRS correlated with lower age of diagnosis.) All HLA GRS showed significant positive associations with age of diagnosis: P = 0.049 and r 2 = 0.176 for GRCS; P = 0.022 and r 2 = 0.176 for GRWS; P = 0.022 and r 2 = 0.176 for GRSCS; P = 0.011 and r 2 = 0.177 for GRSWS (higher GRS correlated with higher age of diagnosis)., Conclusion: Our data suggest that there is a linear relationship between genetic risk and age of SLE diagnosis and that HLA and non-HLA GRS are associated with age of diagnosis in opposite directions., (Copyright © 2021 by the Journal of Rheumatology.)

Background: SLE is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to determine which among QRISK2, QRISK3, Framingham Risk Score (FRS), modified Framingham Risk Score (mFRS) and SLE Cardiovascular Risk Equation (SLECRE) best predicts CVD., Methods: This is a single-centre analysis on 1887 patients with SLE followed prospectively according to a standard protocol. Tools' scores were evaluated against CVD development at/within 10 years for patients with CVD and without CVD. For patients with CVD, the index date for risk score calculation was chosen as close to 10 years prior to CVD event. For patients without CVD, risk scores were calculated as close to 10 years prior to the most recent clinic appointment. Proportions of low-risk (<10%), intermediate-risk (10%-20%) and high-risk (>20%) patients for developing CVD according to each tool were determined, allowing sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive value and concordance (c) statistics analysis., Results: Among 1887 patients, 232 CVD events occurred. QRISK2 and FRS, and QRISK3 and mFRS, performed similarly. SLECRE classified the highest number of patients as intermediate and high risk. Sensitivities and specificities were 19% and 93% for QRISK2, 22% and 93% for FRS, 46% and 83% for mFRS, 47% and 78% for QRISK3, and 61% and 64% for SLECRE. Tools were similar in negative predictive value, ranging from 89% (QRISK2) to 92% (SLECRE). FRS and mFRS had the greatest c-statistics (0.73), while QRISK3 and SLECRE had the lowest (0. 67)., Conclusion: mFRS was superior to FRS and was not outperformed by the QRISK tools. SLECRE had the highest sensitivity but the lowest specificity. mFRS is an SLE-adjusted practical tool with a simple, intuitive scoring system reasonably appropriate for ambulatory settings, with more research needed to develop more accurate CVD risk prediction tools in this population., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Observational studies allow researchers to understand the natural history of rheumatic conditions, risk factors for disease development, and factors affecting important disease-related outcomes, and to estimate treatment effect from real-world data. However, this design carries a risk of confounding bias. A propensity score (PS) is a balancing score that aims to minimize the difference between study groups and consequently potential confounding effects. The score can be applied in 1 of 4 methods in observational research: matching, stratification, adjustment, and inverse probability weighting. Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a rare disease characterized by a relatively small sample size and/or low event rates. In this article, we review the PS methods. We demonstrate application of the PS methods to achieve study group balance in a rare disease using an example of risk of infection in SLE patients with hypogammaglobulinemia., (Copyright © 2021 by the Journal of Rheumatology.)

Objectives: Type I interferons (IFNs) play an important role in the pathophysiology of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). While cross-sectional data suggest an association between IFN-induced gene expression and SLE disease activity, interest in this as a biomarker of flare has been tempered by a lack of fluctuation with disease activity in the majority of patients. This led us to question whether IFN-induced gene expression might instead be a biomarker of overall disease severity, with patients with high levels spending more time in an active disease state., Methods: Levels of five interferon-responsive genes were measured in the whole peripheral blood at baseline visit for 137 SLE patients subsequently followed for 5 years. Log transformed values were summed to yield a composite IFN5 score, and the correlation with various disease outcomes examined. Receiver operator characteristic analyses were performed for outcomes of interest. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to compare the proportion of flare-free patients with high and low IFN5 scores over time., Results: The baseline IFN5 score was positively correlated with the adjusted mean SLE disease activity index-2000, number of flares, adjusted mean prednisone dose, and number of new immunosuppressive medications over the subsequent 5 years. Optimal cut-offs for the IFN5 score were determined using Youden's index and predicted more severe outcomes with 57-67% accuracy. A high baseline IFN5 level was associated with a significantly increased risk of subsequent flare., Conclusions: Measurement of the type I IFN signature is a useful tool for predicting the subsequent disease activity course.

Objectives: Most randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in SLE have failed to reach their respective end points, with the rates of response to placebo (plus standard-of-care treatment) being unexpectedly high. The aim of this systematic review was to quantify the response to placebo in non-renal, non-neuropsychiatric lupus., Methods: The PubMed database was searched (from 2000 to December 2019) for phase II/III RCTs assessing the efficacy and safety of biologics in non-renal, non-neuropsychiatric SLE. Data on the efficacy and safety of the placebo-treated patients were collected in a pre-established data retrieval form. Descriptive statistics were used., Results: A total of 24 RCTs (n = 11128 in total) were included. Placebo-treated patients (n = 3899) were mostly females (93.5%), Caucasians (60.2%), of mean age 39.7 years, and having a mean disease duration of 7.4 years. Their mean initial SLEDAI 2000 was 10.4, whereas 60.5% had positive anti-dsDNA antibodies, 41.9% low C3 and 35.6% low C4 at randomization. Standard-of-care treatment included glucocorticosteroids in 85.9%, antimalarials in 72.8% and immunosuppressives in 48.5%. The response to placebo was 36.2% for the primary end point (as defined in each study), 39.8% for the SLE Responder Index-4 (SRI-4), 29.2% for SRI-5, 28.4% for SRI-6 and 30.9% for BILAG-based Combined Lupus Assessment response. Regarding safety, there were serious adverse events in 16.3% of patients, serious infections in 5.5% and malignancies in 0.3%, and death occurred in 0.56% of patients., Conclusion: More than one-third of the placebo-treated patients achieved their respective primary end points in RCTs with biologics in non-renal, non-neuropsychiatric SLE. The response rate was higher for certain end points, such as the SRI-4, while it decreased with more stringent end points., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To examine the role of disease activity on organ damage over 5 years in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) despite standard of care., Methods: This analysis of the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic cohort assessed organ damage [measured by Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI)] in patients with active SLE [SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) ≥ 6], using Cox proportional time-independent hazard models. Subgroup analyses were conducted in patients with SLEDAI-2K 6 or 7, 8 or 9, and ≥ 10 at baseline, and in the overall study population by steroid dose at study entry (< 7.5 vs ≥ 7.5 mg/day)., Results: Among the overall study population (n = 649), SDI progression was observed in 209 (32.2%) patients over the 5-year follow-up period. Mean SDI change in patients with a score > 0 was generally consistent across all SLEDAI-2K subgroups. Multivariable analyses identified age at study start (HR 1.03, P < 0.0001), steroid dose (HR 2.03, P < 0.0001), immunosuppressants (HR 1.44, P = 0.021), and SLEDAI-2K (subgroup analyses HR 1.64-2.03, P = 0.0017 to < 0.0001) as the greatest risk factors for SDI progression, while a study start date after the year 2000 had a protective effect on SDI progression compared with a start date prior to the year 2000 (HR 0.65, P = 0.0004)., Conclusion: Patients within the higher SLEDAI-2K subgroups at study entry or receiving high doses of steroids were more likely to have organ damage progression.

Objective: There is a paucity of data regarding health care costs associated with damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus. The present study was undertaken to describe costs associated with damage states across the disease course using multistate modeling., Methods: Patients from 33 centers in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort within 15 months of diagnosis. Annual data on demographics, disease activity, damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), hospitalizations, medications, dialysis, and selected procedures were collected. Ten-year cumulative costs (Canadian dollars) were estimated by multiplying annual costs associated with each SDI state by the expected state duration using a multistate model., Results: A total of 1,687 patients participated; 88.7% were female, 49.0% were white, mean ± SD age at diagnosis was 34.6 ± 13.3 years, and mean time to follow-up was 8.9 years (range 0.6-18.5 years). Mean annual costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores as follows: $22,006 (Canadian) (95% confidence interval [95% CI] $16,662, $27,350) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $1,833 (95% CI $1,134, $2,532) for SDI scores of 0. Similarly, 10-year cumulative costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores at the beginning of the 10-year interval as follows: $189,073 (Canadian) (95% CI $142,318, $235,827) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $21,713 (95% CI $13,639, $29,788) for SDI scores of 0., Conclusion: Patients with the highest SDI scores incur 10-year cumulative costs that are ~9-fold higher than those with the lowest SDI scores. By estimating the damage trajectory and incorporating annual costs, data on damage can be used to estimate future costs, which is critical knowledge for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of novel therapies., (© 2020, American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: In previous studies, atherosclerotic vascular events (AVEs) were shown to occur in ~10% of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We undertook this study to investigate the annual occurrence and potential risk factors for AVEs in a multinational, multiethnic inception cohort of patients with SLE., Methods: A large 33-center cohort of SLE patients was followed up yearly between 1999 and 2017. AVEs were attributed to atherosclerosis based on SLE being inactive at the time of the AVE as well as typical atherosclerotic changes observed on imaging or pathology reports and/or evidence of atherosclerosis elsewhere. Analyses included descriptive statistics, rate of AVEs per 1,000 patient-years, and univariable and multivariable relative risk regression models., Results: Of the 1,848 patients enrolled in the cohort, 1,710 had ≥1 follow-up visit after enrollment, for a total of 13,666 patient-years. Of these 1,710 patients, 3.6% had ≥1 AVEs attributed to atherosclerosis, for an event rate of 4.6 per 1,000 patient-years. In multivariable analyses, lower AVE rates were associated with antimalarial treatment (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.32-0.91]), while higher AVE rates were associated with any prior vascular event (HR 4.00 [95% CI 1.55-10.30]) and a body mass index of >40 kg/m 2 (HR 2.74 [95% CI 1.04-7.18]). A prior AVE increased the risk of subsequent AVEs (HR 5.42 [95% CI 3.17-9.27], P < 0.001)., Conclusion: The prevalence of AVEs and the rate of AVE accrual demonstrated in the present study is much lower than that seen in previously published data. This may be related to better control of both the disease activity and classic risk factors., (© 2020, American College of Rheumatology.)

Objectives: The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 2019 Classification Criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have been validated with high sensitivity and specificity. We evaluated the performance of the new criteria with regard to disease duration, sex and race/ethnicity, and compared its performance against the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) 2012 and ACR 1982/1997 criteria., Methods: Twenty-one SLE centres from 16 countries submitted SLE cases and mimicking controls to form the validation cohort. The sensitivity and specificity of the EULAR/ACR 2019, SLICC 2012 and ACR 1982/1997 criteria were evaluated., Results: The cohort consisted of female (n=1098), male (n=172), Asian (n=118), black (n=68), Hispanic (n=124) and white (n=941) patients; with an SLE duration of 1 to <3 years (n=196) and ≥5 years (n=879). Among patients with 1 to <3 years disease duration, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (97% vs 81%). The EULAR/ACR criteria performed well in men (sensitivity 93%, specificity 96%) and women (sensitivity 97%, specificity 94%). Among women, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (97% vs 83%) and better specificity than the SLICC criteria (94% vs 82%). Among white patients, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (95% vs 83%) and better specificity than the SLICC criteria (94% vs 83%). The EULAR/ACR criteria performed well among black patients (sensitivity of 98%, specificity 100%), and had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria among Hispanic patients (100% vs 86%) and Asian patients (97% vs 77%)., Conclusions: The EULAR/ACR 2019 criteria perform well among patients with early disease, men, women, white, black, Hispanic and Asian patients. These criteria have superior sensitivity than the ACR criteria and/or superior specificity than the SLICC criteria across many subgroups., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines defined hypertension at ≥130/80 mm Hg. Studies on patients with connective tissue diseases were not considered. Our aim was to assess the impact of this definition on atherosclerotic vascular events (AVEs) in systemic lupus erythematosus., Patients Methods: Individuals from the Toronto Lupus Clinic with at least 2 years of follow-up and no prior AVE were divided in three groups according to their mean blood pressure (BP) over that period (≥140/90 mm Hg, 130-139/80-89 mm Hg and <130/80 mm Hg). They were followed until the first occurrence of an AVE (fatal or non-fatal coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular event and peripheral vascular disease) or last visit. Groups were compared as per the baseline atherosclerotic risk factors. A multivariable time-dependent analysis was performed to adjust for the presence of other risk factors., Results: Of 1532 patients satisfying the inclusion criteria, 155 (10.1%) had a BP ≥140/90 mm Hg, 316 (20.6%) 130-139/80-89 mm Hg and 1061 (69.3%) were normotensives. After a mean follow-up of 10.8 years, 124 AVEs were documented. The incidence rates were 18.9, 11.5 and 4.5 per 1000 patient-years for the three groups, respectively (p=0.0007 between the 130-139/80-89 mm Hg group and the normotensives). A mean BP of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg over the first 2 years was independently associated with the occurrence of AVEs (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.65, p=0.011)., Conclusion: Patients with lupus with a sustained mean BP of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg over 2 years had a significantly higher incidence of AVEs compared with normotensive individuals. This BP level should be the target for antihypertensive therapy to minimise their cardiovascular risk., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) frailty index (FI) has been shown to predict mortality, but its association with other important outcomes is unknown. We examined the association of baseline SLICC FI values with damage accrual in the SLICC inception cohort., Methods: The baseline visit was defined as the first visit at which both organ damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]) and health-related quality of life (Short Form 36) were assessed. Baseline SLICC FI scores were calculated. Damage accrual was measured by the increase in SDI between the baseline assessment and the last study visit. Multivariable negative binomial regression was used to estimate the association between baseline SLICC FI values and the rate of increase in the SDI during follow-up, adjusting for relevant demographic and clinical characteristics., Results: The 1,549 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients eligible for this analysis were mostly female (88.7%) with a mean ± SD age of 35.7 ± 13.3 years and a median disease duration of 1.2 years (interquartile range 0.9-1.5 years) at baseline. The mean ± SD baseline SLICC FI was 0.17 ± 0.08. Over a mean ± SD follow-up of 7.2 ± 3.7 years, 653 patients (42.2%) had an increase in SDI. Higher baseline SLICC FI values (per 0.05 increase) were associated with higher rates of increase in the SDI during follow-up (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.19 [95% confidence interval 1.13-1.25]), after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity/region, education, baseline SLE Disease Activity Index 2000, baseline SDI, and baseline use of glucocorticoids, antimalarials, and immunosuppressive agents., Conclusion: Our findings indicate that the SLICC FI predicts damage accrual in incident SLE, which further supports the SLICC FI as a valid health measure in SLE., (© 2019, American College of Rheumatology.)

Objectives: Using a reversible multistate model, we prospectively examined neuropsychiatric (NP) events for attribution, outcome and association with health-related quality of life (HRQoL), in an international, inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients., Methods: Annual assessments for 19 NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes, physician determination of outcome and patient HRQoL (short-form (SF)-36 scores) were measured. Time-to-event analysis and multistate modelling examined the onset, recurrence and transition between NP states., Results: NP events occurred in 955/1827 (52.3%) patients and 592/1910 (31.0%) unique events were attributed to SLE. In the first 2 years of follow-up the relative risk (95% CI) for SLE NP events was 6.16 (4.96, 7.66) and non-SLE events was 4.66 (4.01, 5.43) compared with thereafter. Patients without SLE NP events at initial assessment had a 74% probability of being event free at 10 years. For non-SLE NP events the estimate was 48%. The majority of NP events resolved over 10 years but mortality was higher in patients with NP events attributed to SLE (16%) versus patients with no NPSLE events (6%) while the rate was comparable in patients with non-SLE NP events (7%) compared with patients with no non-SLE events (6%). Patients with NP events had lower SF-36 summary scores compared with those without NP events and resolved NP states (p<0.001)., Conclusions: NP events occur most frequently around the diagnosis of SLE. Although the majority of events resolve they are associated with reduced HRQoL and excess mortality. Multistate modelling is well suited for the assessment of NP events in SLE., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RvV has received grants from BMS, GSK, Lilly, Pfizer, UCB Pharma, personal fees from AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Biotest, Celgene, GSK, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Servier, UCB, outside the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)