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Patterns of vector-borne disease risk are changing globally in space and time and elevated disease risk of vector-borne infection can be driven by anthropogenic modification of the environment. Incidence of Lyme disease, caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, has risen in a number of locations in North America and this increase may be driven by spatially or numerically expanding populations of the primary tick vector, Ixodes scapularis . We used a model selection approach to identify habitat fragmentation and land-use/land cover variables to test the hypothesis that the amount and configuration of forest cover at spatial scales relevant to deer, the primary hosts of adult ticks, would be the predominant determinants of tick abundance. We expected that land cover heterogeneity and amount of forest edge, a habitat thought to facilitate deer foraging and survival, would be the strongest driver of tick density and that larger spatial scales (5-10 km) would be more important than smaller scales (1 km). We generated metrics of deciduous and mixed forest fragmentation using Fragstats 4.4 implemented in ArcMap 10.3 and found, after adjusting for multicollinearity, that total forest edge within a 5 km buffer had a significant negative effect on tick density and that the proportion of forested land cover within a 10 km buffer was positively associated with density of I. scapularis nymphs. None of the 1 km fragmentation metrics were found to significantly improve the fit of the model. Elevation, previously associated with increased density of I. scapularis nymphs in Virginia, while significantly predictive in univariate analysis, was not an important driver of nymph density relative to fragmentation metrics. Our results suggest that amount of forest cover (i.e., lack of fragmentation) is the most important driver of I. scapularis density in our study system., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Lyme disease, caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and transmitted in the eastern United States by the black-legged tick (Ixodes scapularis), is increasing in incidence and expanding geographically. Recent environmental modeling based on extensive field collections of host-seeking I. scapularis ticks predicted a coastal distribution of ticks in mid-Atlantic states and an elevational limit of 510 m. However, human Lyme disease cases are increasing most dramatically at higher elevations in Virginia, a state where Lyme disease is rapidly emerging. Our goal was to explore the apparent incongruity, during 2000-2011, between human Lyme disease data and predicted and observed I. scapularis distribution. We found significantly higher densities of infected ticks at our highest elevation site than at lower elevation sites. We also found that I. scapularis ticks in Virginia are more closely related to northern than to southern tick populations. Clinicians and epidemiologists should be vigilant in light of the changing spatial distributions of risk.

Modeling and empirical evidence suggests that Lyme disease is undergoing geographic expansion from principal foci in the midwestern and northeastern United States. Virginia is at the southern edge of the current expansion zone and has seen dramatic rise in human Lyme disease cases since 2007, potentially owing to a recent increase in vector abundance. Ixodes scapularis is known throughout the eastern US but behavioral or physiological variation between northern and southern lineages might lead northern-variant ticks to more frequently parasitize humans. We hypothesized that recent spatial and numerical increase in Lyme disease cases is associated with demographic and/or spatial expansion of I. scapularis and that signals of these phenomena would be detectable and discernable in population genetic signals. In summer and fall 2011, we collected nymphal I. scapularis by drag sampling and adult I. scapularis from deer carcasses at hunting check stations at nine sites arranged along an east-west transect through central Virginia. We analyzed 16S mtDNA sequences data from up to 24 I. scapularis individuals collected from each site and detected a total of 24 haplotypes containing 29 segregating sites. We found no evidence for population genetic structure among these sites but we did find strong signals of both demographic and spatial expansion throughout our study system. We found two haplotypes (one individual each) representing a lineage of ticks that is only found in the southeastern United States, with the remaining individuals representing a less genetically diverse clade that is typical of the northern United States, but that has also been detected in the American South. Taken together, these results lead us to conclude that I. scapularis populations in Virginia are expanding and that this expansion may account for recent observed increases in Lyme disease., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The effect of biodiversity declines on human health is currently debated, but empirical assessments are lacking. Lyme disease provides a model system to assess relationships between biodiversity and human disease because the etiologic agent, Borrelia burgdorferi, is transmitted in the United States by the generalist black-legged tick (Ixodes scapularis) among a wide range of mammalian and avian hosts. The 'dilution effect' hypothesis predicts that species-poor host communities dominated by white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) will pose the greatest human risk because P. leucopus infects the largest numbers of ticks, resulting in higher human exposure to infected I. scapularis ticks. P. leucopus-dominated communities are also expected to maintain a higher frequency of those B. burgdorferi outer surface protein C (ospC) genotypes that this host species more efficiently transmits ('multiple niche polymorphism' hypothesis). Because some of these genotypes are human invasive, an additive increase in human disease risk is expected in species-poor settings. We assessed these theoretical predictions by comparing I. scapularis nymphal infection prevalence, density of infected nymphs and B. burgdorferi genotype diversity at sites on Block Island, RI, where P. leucopus dominates the mammalian host community, to species-diverse sites in northeastern Connecticut. We found no support for the dilution effect hypothesis; B. burgdorferi nymphal infection prevalence was similar between island and mainland and the density of B. burgdorferi infected nymphs was higher on the mainland, contrary to what is predicted by the dilution effect hypothesis. Evidence for the multiple niche polymorphism hypothesis was mixed: there was lower ospC genotype diversity at island than mainland sites, but no overrepresentation of genotypes with higher fitness in P. leucopus or that are more invasive in humans. We conclude that other mechanisms explain similar nymphal infection prevalence in both communities and that high ospC genotype diversity can be maintained in both species-poor and species-rich communities., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)