Search

The difference between observed and modelled precession/nutation reveals unmodelled signals commonly referred to as Celestial Pole Offsets (CPO), denoted by dX and dY. CPO are currently observed only by Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), but there is nearly 4 weeks of latency by which the data centers provide the most accurate, final CPO series. This latency problem necessitates predicting CPO for high-accuracy, real-time applications that require information regarding Earth rotation, such as spacecraft navigation. Even though the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) provides so-called rapid CPO, they are usually less accurate and therefore, may not satisfy the requirements of the mentioned applications. To enhance the quality of CPO predictions, we present a new methodology based on Neural Additive Models (NAMs), a class of interpretable machine learning algorithms. We formulate the problem based on long short-term memory neural networks and derive simple analytical relations for the quantification of prediction uncertainty and feature importance, thereby enhancing the intelligibility of predictions made by machine learning. We then focus on the short-term prediction of CPO with a forecasting horizon of 30 days. We develop an operational framework that consistently provides CPO predictions. Using the CPO series of Jet Propulsion Laboratory as the input to the algorithm, we show that NAMs predictions improve the IERS rapid products on average by 57% for dX and 25% for dY under fully operational conditions. Our predictions are both accurate and overcome the latency issue of final CPO series and thus, can be used in real-time applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Celestial Pole Offsets (CPO), denoted by dX and dY, describe the differences in the observed position of the pole in the celestial frame with respect to a certain precession-nutation model. Precession and nutation components are part of the transformation matrix between terrestrial and celestial systems. Therefore, various applications in geodetic science such as high-precision spacecraft navigation require information regrading precession and nutation. For this purpose, CPO can be added to the precession-nutation model to precisely describe the motion of the celestial pole. However, as Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI)—currently the only technique providing CPO—requires long data processing times resulting in several weeks of latency, predictions of CPO become necessary. Here we present a new methodology named Deep Ensemble Geophysics-Informed Neural Networks (DEGINNs) to provide accurate CPO predictions. The methodology has three main elements: (1) deep ensemble learning to provide the prediction uncertainty; (2) broad-band Liouville equation as a geophysical constraint connecting the rotational dynamics of CPO to the atmospheric and oceanic Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions and (3) coupled oscillatory recurrent neural networks to model the sequential characteristics of CPO time-series, also capable of handling irregularly sampled time-series. To test the methodology, we use the newest version of the final CPO time-series of International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), namely IERS 20 C04. We focus on a forecasting horizon of 90 days, the practical forecasting horizon needed in space-geodetic applications. Furthermore, for validation purposes we generate an independent global VLBI solution for CPO since 1984 up to the end of 2022 and analyse the series. We draw the following conclusions. First, the prediction performance of DEGINNs demonstrates up to 25 and 33 percent improvement, respectively, for dX and dY, with respect to the rapid data provided by IERS. Secondly, predictions made with the help of EAM are more accurate compared to those without EAM, thus providing a clue to the role of atmosphere and ocean on the excitation of CPO. Finally, free core nutation period shows temporal variations with a dominant periodicity of around one year, partially excited by EAM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid provision of Earth orientation parameters (EOPs, here polar motion and dUT1) is indispensable in many geodetic applications and also for spacecraft navigation. There are, however, discrepancies between the rapid EOPs and the final EOPs that have a higher latency but the highest accuracy. To reduce these discrepancies, we focus on a data‐driven approach, present a novel method named ResLearner, and use it in the context of deep ensemble learning. Furthermore, we introduce a geophysically constrained approach for ResLearner. We show that the most important geophysical information to improve the rapid EOPs is the effective angular momentum functions of atmosphere, ocean, land hydrology, and sea level. In addition, semidiurnal, diurnal, and long‐period tides coupled with prograde and retrograde tidal excitations are important features. The influence of some climatic indices on the prediction accuracy of dUT1 is discussed, and El Niño Southern Oscillation is found to be influential. We developed an operational framework, providing the improved EOPs on a daily basis with a prediction window of 63 days to fully cover the latency of final EOPs. We show that under the operational conditions and using the rapid EOPs of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), we achieve improvements as high as 60%, thus significantly reducing the differences between rapid and final EOPs. Furthermore, we discuss how the new final series IERS 20 C04 is preferred over 14 C04. Finally, we compare against EOP hindcast experiments of the European Space Agency, on which ResLearner presents comparable improvements. Plain Language Summary: The International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) provides rapid Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) using different space‐geodetic techniques to bridge the latency of the final, most accurate EOPs solution. However, these rapid EOPs are not in full agreement with the final EOPs. In order to reduce the differences between the rapid and final EOPs, we focus on the application of machine learning and present a novel method named ResLearner, which is based on geodetic data and geophysical constraints. We present the method in the context of deep ensemble learning, focusing on a prediction window of 63 days. We also attempt to link informative geophysical effects to these discrepancies. We show that they are linked to a mixture of atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and sea level effective angular momentum functions, dominance of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems‐derived polar motion, and various short‐ and long‐term tidal excitations. El Niño Southern Oscillation is also relevant for dUT1 prediction. The methodology can provide significant improvements of up to 60% in operational settings with respect to rapid EOPs provided by IERS. Additional validation is done by using the data of Jet Propulsion Laboratory final EOP series and also EOP series provided by the European Space Agency. Key Points: We introduce a novel machine learning algorithm named ResLearner to improve the accuracy of rapid and predicted Earth orientation parameters (EOPs)We also present geophysically constrained ResLearner, using Earth's effective angular momentum functions, tides, and climatic indicesBesides prediction, ResLearner is also able to effectively correct deficits in rapidly processed EOPs with respect to final EOPs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]