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Aims/hypothesis: Clustering-based subclassification of type 2 diabetes, which reflects pathophysiology and genetic predisposition, is a promising approach for providing personalised and effective therapeutic strategies. Ahlqvist's classification is currently the most vigorously validated method because of its superior ability to predict diabetes complications but it does not have strong consistency over time and requires HOMA2 indices, which are not routinely available in clinical practice and standard cohort studies. We developed a machine learning (ML) model to classify individuals with type 2 diabetes into Ahlqvist's subtypes consistently over time., Methods: Cohort 1 dataset comprised 619 Japanese individuals with type 2 diabetes who were divided into training and test sets for ML models in a 7:3 ratio. Cohort 2 dataset, comprising 597 individuals with type 2 diabetes, was used for external validation. Participants were pre-labelled (T2D kmeans ) by unsupervised k-means clustering based on Ahlqvist's variables (age at diagnosis, BMI, HbA 1c , HOMA2-B and HOMA2-IR) to four subtypes: severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD), severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD), mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD) and mild age-related diabetes (MARD). We adopted 15 variables for a multiclass classification random forest (RF) algorithm to predict type 2 diabetes subtypes (T2D RF15 ). The proximity matrix computed by RF was visualised using a uniform manifold approximation and projection. Finally, we used a putative subset with missing insulin-related variables to test the predictive performance of the validation cohort, consistency of subtypes over time and prediction ability of diabetes complications., Results: T2D RF15 demonstrated a 94% accuracy for predicting T2D kmeans type 2 diabetes subtypes (AUCs ≥0.99 and F1 score [an indicator calculated by harmonic mean from precision and recall] ≥0.9) and retained the predictive performance in the external validation cohort (86.3%). T2D RF15 showed an accuracy of 82.9% for detecting T2D kmeans , also in a putative subset with missing insulin-related variables, when used with an imputation algorithm. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the diabetes clusters of T2D RF15 demonstrated distinct accumulation risks of diabetic retinopathy in SIDD and that of chronic kidney disease in SIRD during a median observation period of 11.6 (4.5-18.3) years, similarly to the subtypes using T2D kmeans . The predictive accuracy was improved after excluding individuals with low predictive probability, who were categorised as an 'undecidable' cluster. T2D RF15 , after excluding undecidable individuals, showed higher consistency (100% for SIDD, 68.6% for SIRD, 94.4% for MOD and 97.9% for MARD) than T2D kmeans ., Conclusions/interpretation: The new ML model for predicting Ahlqvist's subtypes of type 2 diabetes has great potential for application in clinical practice and cohort studies because it can classify individuals with missing HOMA2 indices and predict glycaemic control, diabetic complications and treatment outcomes with long-term consistency by using readily available variables. Future studies are needed to assess whether our approach is applicable to research and/or clinical practice in multiethnic populations., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The nature of the recovery process of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms is multifactorial. The Massive Parallel Limitless-Arity Multiple-testing Procedure (MP-LAMP), which was developed to detect significant combinational risk factors comprehensively, was utilized to reveal hidden combinational risk factors to explain the long-term trajectory of the PTSD symptoms. In 624 population-based subjects severely affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake, 61 potential risk factors encompassing sociodemographics, lifestyle, and traumatic experiences were analyzed by MP-LAMP regarding combinational associations with the trajectory of PTSD symptoms, as evaluated by the Impact of Event Scale-Revised score after eight years adjusted by the baseline score. The comprehensive combinational analysis detected 56 significant combinational risk factors, including 15 independent variables, although the conventional bivariate analysis between single risk factors and the trajectory detected no significant risk factors. The strongest association was observed with the combination of short resting time, short walking time, unemployment, and evacuation without preparation (adjusted P value = 2.2 × 10 -4 , and raw P value = 3.1 × 10 -9 ). Although short resting time had no association with the poor trajectory, it had a significant interaction with short walking time (P value = 1.2 × 10 -3 ), which was further strengthened by the other two components (P value = 9.7 × 10 -5 ). Likewise, components that were not associated with a poor trajectory in bivariate analysis were included in every observed significant risk combination due to their interactions with other components. Comprehensive combination detection by MP-LAMP is essential for explaining multifactorial psychiatric symptoms by revealing the hidden combinations of risk factors.

To solve major limitations in algorithms for the metabolite-based prediction of psychiatric phenotypes, a novel prediction model for depressive symptoms based on nonlinear feature selection machine learning, the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (HSIC Lasso) algorithm, was developed and applied to a metabolomic dataset with the largest sample size to date. In total, 897 population-based subjects were recruited from the communities affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake; 306 metabolite features (37 metabolites identified by nuclear magnetic resonance measurements and 269 characterized metabolites based on the intensities from mass spectrometry) were utilized to build prediction models for depressive symptoms as evaluated by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D). The nested fivefold cross-validation was used for developing and evaluating the prediction models. The HSIC Lasso-based prediction model showed better predictive power than the other prediction models, including Lasso, support vector machine, partial least squares, random forest, and neural network. L-leucine, 3-hydroxyisobutyrate, and gamma-linolenyl carnitine frequently contributed to the prediction. We have demonstrated that the HSIC Lasso-based prediction model integrating nonlinear feature selection showed improved predictive power for depressive symptoms based on metabolome data as well as on risk metabolites based on nonlinear statistics in the Japanese population. Further studies should use HSIC Lasso-based prediction models with different ethnicities to investigate the generality of each risk metabolite for predicting depressive symptoms.

Background: Biobanks increasingly collect, process and store omics with more conventional epidemiologic information necessitating considerable effort in data cleaning. An efficient outlier detection method that reduces manual labour is highly desirable., Method: We develop an unsupervised machine-learning method for outlier detection, namely kurPCA, that uses principal component analysis combined with kurtosis to ascertain the existence of outliers. In addition, we propose a novel regression adjustment approach to improve detection, namely the regression adjustment for data by systematic missing patterns (RAMP)., Result: Application to epidemiological record data in a large-scale biobank (Tohoku Medical Megabank Organization, Japan) shows that a combination of kurPCA and RAMP effectively detects known errors or inconsistent patterns., Conclusions: We confirm through the results of the simulation and the application that our methods showed good performance. The proposed methods are useful for many practical analysis scenarios., (© The Author(s) 2019; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

We investigated whether machine learning methods could potentially identify a subgroup of persons with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) who show vitamin B6 responsiveness by selected phenotype variables. We analyzed the existing data from our intervention study with 17 persons. First, we focused on signs and biomarkers that have been identified as candidates for vitamin B6 responsiveness indicators. Second, we conducted hypothesis testing among these selected variables and their combinations. Finally, we further investigated the results by conducting cluster analyses with two different algorithms, affinity propagation and k-medoids. Statistically significant variables for vitamin B6 responsiveness, including combination of hypersensitivity to sound and clumsiness, and plasma glutamine level, were included. As an a priori variable, the Pervasive Developmental Disorders Autism Society Japan Rating Scale (PARS) scores was also included. The affinity propagation analysis showed good classification of three potential vitamin B6-responsive persons with ASD. The k-medoids analysis also showed good classification. To our knowledge, this is the first study to attempt to identify subgroup of persons with ASD who show specific treatment responsiveness using selected phenotype variables. We applied machine learning methods to further investigate these variables' ability to identify this subgroup of ASD, even when only a small sample size was available.

Deep learning algorithms have achieved great success in cancer image classification. However, it is imperative to understand the differences between the deep learning and human approaches. Using an explainable model, we aimed to compare the deep learning-focused regions of magnetic resonance (MR) images with cancerous locations identified by radiologists and pathologists. First, 307 prostate MR images were classified using a well-established deep neural network without locational information of cancers. Subsequently, we assessed whether the deep learning-focused regions overlapped the radiologist-identified targets. Furthermore, pathologists provided histopathological diagnoses on 896 pathological images, and we compared the deep learning-focused regions with the genuine cancer locations through 3D reconstruction of pathological images. The area under the curve (AUC) for MR images classification was sufficiently high (AUC = 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.87–0.94). Deep learning-focused regions overlapped radiologist-identified targets by 70.5% and pathologist-identified cancer locations by 72.1%. Lymphocyte aggregation and dilated prostatic ducts were observed in non-cancerous regions focused by deep learning. Deep learning algorithms can achieve highly accurate image classification without necessarily identifying radiological targets or cancer locations. Deep learning may find clues that can help a clinical diagnosis even if the cancer is not visible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]