Search

Intravenous ganciclovir and oral valganciclovir display significant variability in ganciclovir pharmacokinetics, particularly in children. Therapeutic drug monitoring currently relies on the area under the concentration-time (AUC). Machine-learning (ML) algorithms represent an interesting alternative to Maximum-a-Posteriori Bayesian-estimators for AUC estimation. The goal of our study was to develop and validate an ML-based limited sampling strategy (LSS) approach to determine ganciclovir AUC 0-24 after administration of either intravenous ganciclovir or oral valganciclovir in children. Pharmacokinetic parameters from four published population pharmacokinetic models, in addition to the World Health Organization growth curve for children, were used in the mrgsolve R package to simulate 10,800 pharmacokinetic profiles of children. Different ML algorithms were trained to predict AUC 0-24 based on different combinations of two or three samples. Performances were evaluated in a simulated test set and in an external data set of real patients. The best estimation performances in the test set were obtained with the Xgboost algorithm using a 2 and 6 hours post dose LSS for oral valganciclovir (relative mean prediction error [rMPE] = 0.4% and relative root mean square error [rRMSE] = 5.7%) and 0 and 2 hours post dose LSS for intravenous ganciclovir (rMPE = 0.9% and rRMSE = 12.4%). In the external data set, the performance based on these two sample LSS was acceptable: rMPE = 0.2% and rRMSE = 16.5% for valganciclovir and rMPE = -9.7% and rRMSE = 17.2% for intravenous ganciclovir. The Xgboost algorithm developed resulted in a clinically relevant individual estimation using only two blood samples. This will improve the implementation of AUC-targeted ganciclovir therapeutic drug monitoring in children., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Background and Objective: The dosage of daptomycin is usually based on body weight. However, it has been shown that this approach yields too high an exposure in obese patients. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic indexes (PK/PD) have been proposed for daptomycin's antibacterial effect (AUC/CMI >666) and toxicity (C0 > 24.3 mg/L). We previously developed machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict starting doses based on Monte Carlo simulations. We propose a new way to perform probability of target attainment based on an ML algorithm to predict the daptomycin starting dose., Methods: The Dvorchik model of daptomycin was implemented in the mrgsolve R package and 4950 pharmacokinetic profiles were simulated with doses ranging from 4 to 12 mg/kg. We trained and benchmarked four machine learning algorithms and selected the best to iteratively search for the optimal dose of daptomycin maximizing the event (AUC/CMI > 666 and C0 < 24.3 mg/L). The ML algorithm was evaluated in simulations and an external database of real patients in comparison with population pharmacokinetics., Results: The performance of the Xgboost algorithms developed to predict the event (ROC AUC) in the training and test set were 0.762 and 0.761, respectively. The most important prediction variables were dose, creatinine clearance, body weight and sex. In the external database of real patients, the starting dose administered based on the ML algorithm significantly improved the target attainment by 7.9% (p-value = 0.02929) in comparison with the dose administered based on body weight., Conclusion: The developed algorithm improved the target attainment for daptomycin in comparison with weight-based dosing. We built a Shiny app to calculate the optimal starting dose., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Daptomycin is a concentration-dependent lipopeptide antibiotic for which exposure/effect relationships have been shown. Machine learning (ML) algorithms, developed to predict the individual exposure to drugs, have shown very good performances in comparison to maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation (MAP-BE). The aim of this work was to predict the area under the blood concentration curve (AUC) of daptomycin from two samples and a few covariates using XGBoost ML algorithm trained on Monte Carlo simulations. Five thousand one hundred fifty patients were simulated from two literature population pharmacokinetics models. Data from the first model were split into a training set (75%) and a testing set (25%). Four ML algorithms were built to learn AUC based on daptomycin blood concentration samples at pre-dose and 1 h post-dose. The XGBoost model (best ML algorithm) with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) in a 10-fold cross-validation experiment was evaluated in both the test set and the simulations from the second population pharmacokinetic model (validation). The ML model based on the two concentrations, the differences between these concentrations, and five other covariates (sex, weight, daptomycin dose, creatinine clearance, and body temperature) yielded very good AUC estimation in the test (relative bias/RMSE = 0.43/7.69%) and validation sets (relative bias/RMSE = 4.61/6.63%). The XGBoost ML model developed allowed accurate estimation of daptomycin AUC using C0, C1h, and a few covariates and could be used for exposure estimation and dose adjustment. This ML approach can facilitate the conduct of future therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) studies., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Background and Objectives: Ganciclovir (GCV) and valganciclovir (VGCV) show large interindividual pharmacokinetic variability, particularly in children. The objectives of this study were (1) to develop machine learning (ML) algorithms trained on simulated pharmacokinetics profiles obtained by Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the best ganciclovir or valganciclovir starting dose in children and (2) to compare its performances on real-world profiles to previously published equation derived from literature population pharmacokinetic (POPPK) models achieving about 20% of profiles within the target., Materials and Methods: The pharmacokinetic parameters of four literature POPPK models in addition to the World Health Organization (WHO) growth curve for children were used in the mrgsolve R package to simulate 10,800 pharmacokinetic profiles. ML algorithms were developed and benchmarked to predict the probability to reach the steady-state, area-under-the-curve target (AUC 0-24  within 40-60 mg × h/L) based on demographic characteristics only. The best ML algorithm was then used to calculate the starting dose maximizing the target attainment. Performances were evaluated for ML and literature formula in a test set and in an external set of 32 and 31 actual patients (GCV and VGCV, respectively)., Results: A combination of Xgboost, neural network, and random forest algorithms yielded the best performances and highest target attainment in the test set (36.8% for GCV and 35.3% for the VGCV). In actual patients, the best GCV ML starting dose yielded the highest target attainment rate (25.8%) and performed equally for VGCV with the Franck model formula (35.3% for both)., Conclusion: The ML algorithms exhibit good performances in comparison with previously validated models and should be evaluated prospectively., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Precision medicine requires individualized modeling of disease and drug dynamics, with machine learning-based computational techniques gaining increasing popularity. The complexity of either field, however, makes current pharmacological problems opaque to machine learning practitioners, and state-of-the-art machine learning methods inaccessible to pharmacometricians. To help bridge the two worlds, we provide an introduction to current problems and techniques in pharmacometrics that ranges from pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling to pharmacometric simulations, model-informed precision dosing, and systems pharmacology, and review some of the machine learning approaches to address them. We hope this would facilitate collaboration between experts, with complementary strengths of principled pharmacometric modeling and flexibility of machine learning leading to synergistic effects in pharmacological applications., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Therapeutic drug monitoring of mycophenolic acid (MPA) based on area under the curve (AUC) is well-established and machine learning (ML) approaches could help to estimate AUC. The aim of this work is to estimate the AUC of MPA in organ transplant patients using extreme gradient boosting (Xgboost R package) ML models. A total of 12,877 MPA AUC from 0 to 12 hours (AUC 0-12 h ) requests from 6,884 patients sent to our Immunosuppressant Bayesian Dose Adjustment expert system (https://abis.chu-limoges.fr) for AUC estimation and dose recommendation based on MPA concentrations measured at least at three sampling times (~ 20 minutes, 1 and 3 hours after dosing) were used to develop two ML models based on two or three concentrations. Data were split into a training set (75%) and a test set (25%) and the Xgboost models in the training set with the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) in a 10-fold cross-validation experiment were evaluated in the test set and in 4 independent full-pharmacokinetic (PK) datasets from renal or heart transplant recipients. ML models based on two or three concentrations, differences between these concentrations, relative deviations from theoretical times of sampling, presence of a delayed absorption peak, and five covariates (dose, type of transplantation, associated immunosuppressant, age, and time between transplantation and sampling) yielded accurate AUC estimation performances in the test datasets (relative bias < 5% and relative RMSE < 20%) and better performance than MAP Bayesian estimation in the four independent full-PK datasets. The Xgboost ML models described allow accurate estimation of MPA AUC 0-12 h and can be used for routine exposure estimation and dose adjustment and will soon be implemented in a dedicated web interface., (© 2021 The Authors. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics © 2021 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

The aim of this work is to estimate the area-under the blood concentration curve of tacrolimus (TAC) following b.i.d. or q.d. dosing in organ transplant patients, using Xgboost machine learning (ML) models. A total of 4,997 and 1,452 TAC interdose area under the curves (AUCs) from patients on b.i.d. and q.d. TAC, sent to our Immunosuppressant Bayesian Dose Adjustment expert system (www.pharmaco.chu-limoges.fr/) for AUC estimation and dose recommendation based on TAC concentrations measured at least at 3 sampling times (predose, ~ 1 and 3 hours after dosing) were used to develop 4 ML models based on 2 or 3 concentrations. For each model, data splitting was performed to obtain a training set (75%) and a test set (25%). The Xgboost models in the training set with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) in a 10-fold cross-validation experiment were evaluated in the test set and in 6 independent full-pharmacokinetic (PK) datasets from renal, liver, and heart transplant patients. ML models based on two or three concentrations, differences between these concentrations, relative deviations from theoretical times of sampling, and four covariates (dose, type of transplantation, age, and time between transplantation and sampling) yielded excellent AUC estimation performance in the test datasets (relative bias < 5% and relative RMSE < 10%) and better performance than maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation in the six independent full-PK datasets. The Xgboost ML models described allow accurate estimation of TAC interdose AUC and can be used for routine TAC exposure estimation and dose adjustment. They will soon be implemented in a dedicated web interface., (© 2020 The Authors Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics © 2020 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

We previously demonstrated that Machine learning (ML) algorithms can accurately estimate drug area under the curve (AUC) of tacrolimus or mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) based on limited information, as well as or even better than maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation (MAP-BE). However, the major limitation in the development of such ML algorithms is the limited availability of large databases of concentration vs. time profiles for such drugs. The objectives of this study were: (i) to develop a Xgboost model to estimate tacrolimus inter-dose AUC based on concentration-time profiles obtained from a literature population pharmacokinetic (POPPK) model using Monte Carlo simulation; and (ii) to compare its performance with that of MAP-BE in external datasets of rich concentration-time profiles. The population parameters of a previously published PK model were used in the mrgsolve R package to simulate 9000 rich interdose tacrolimus profiles (one concentration simulated every 30 min) at steady-state. Data splitting was performed to obtain a training set (75%) and a test set (25%). Xgboost algorithms able to estimate tacrolimus AUC based on 2 or 3 concentrations were developed in the training set and the model with the lowest RMSE in a ten-fold cross-validation experiment was evaluated in the test set, as well as in 4 independent, rich PK datasets from transplant patients. ML algorithms based on 2 or 3 concentrations and a few covariates yielded excellent AUC estimation in the external validation datasets (relative bias < 5% and relative RMSE < 10%), comparable to those obtained with MAP-BE. In conclusion, Xgboost machine learning models trained on concentration-time profiles simulated using literature POPPK models allow accurate tacrolimus AUC estimation based on sparse concentration data. This study paves the way to the development of artificial intelligence at the service of precision therapeutic drug monitoring in different therapeutic areas., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: This work aims to evaluate whether a machine learning approach is appropriate to estimate the glomerular filtration rate in intensive care unit patients based on sparse iohexol pharmacokinetic data and a limited number of predictors., Methods: Eighty-six unstable patients received 3250 mg of iohexol intravenously and had nine blood samples collected 5, 30, 60, 180, 360, 540, 720, 1080, and 1440 min thereafter. Data splitting was performed to obtain a training (75%) and a test set (25%). To estimate the glomerular filtration rate, 37 candidate potential predictors were considered and the best machine learning approach among multivariate-adaptive regression spline and extreme gradient boosting (Xgboost) was selected based on the root-mean-square error. The approach associated with the best results in a ten-fold cross-validation experiment was then used to select the best limited combination of predictors in the training set, which was finally evaluated in the test set., Results: The Xgboost approach yielded the best performance in the training set. The best combination of covariates comprised iohexol concentrations at times 180 and 720 min; the relative deviation from these theoretical times; the difference between these two concentrations; the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II; serum creatinine; and the fluid balance. It resulted in a root-mean-square error of 6.2 mL/min and an r 2 of 0.866 in the test set. Interestingly, the eight patients in the test set with a glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min were all predicted accordingly., Conclusions: Xgboost provided accurate glomerular filtration rate estimation in intensive care unit patients based on two timed blood concentrations after iohexol intravenous administration and three additional predictors.

Everolimus is an immunosuppressant with a small therapeutic index and large between‐patient variability. The area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC) is the best marker of exposure but measuring it requires collecting many blood samples. The objective of this study was to train machine learning (ML) algorithms using pharmacokinetic (PK) profiles from kidney transplant recipients, simulated profiles, or both types, and compare their performance for everolimus AUC0‐12h estimation using a limited number of predictors, as compared to an independent set of full PK profiles from patients, as well as to the corresponding maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimates (MAP‐BE). XGBoost was first trained on 508 patient interdose AUCs estimated using MAP‐BE, and then on 500–10,000 rich interdose PK profiles simulated using previously published population PK parameters. The predictors used were: predose, ~1 h, and ~2 h whole blood concentrations, differences between these concentrations, relative deviations from theoretical sampling times, morning dose, patient age, and time elapsed since transplantation. The best results were obtained with XGBoost trained on 5016 simulated profiles. AUC estimation achieved in an external dataset of 114 full‐PK profiles was excellent (root mean squared error [RMSE] = 10.8 μg*h/L) and slightly better than MAP‐BE (RMSE = 11.9 μg*h/L). Using more profiles (n = 10,035) did not improve the ML algorithm performance. The contribution of mixing patient and simulated profiles was significant only when they were in balanced numbers, with ~500 for each (RMSE = 12.5 μg*h/L), compared with patient data alone (RMSE = 18.0 μg*h/L). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]