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Purpose: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model for predicting the risk of new osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) in patients who underwent percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) and to create a user-friendly web-based calculator for clinical use., Methods: A retrospective analysis of patients undergoing percutaneous vertebroplasty: A retrospective analysis of patients treated with PVP between June 2016 and June 2018 at Liuzhou People's Hospital was performed. The independent variables of the model were screened using Boruta and modelled using 9 algorithms. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC_AUC), and clinical utility was assessed by clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). The best models were analysed for interpretability using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and the models were deployed visually using a web calculator., Results: Training and test groups were split using time. The SVM model performed best in both the training group tenfold cross-validation (CV) and validation group AUC, with an AUC of 0.77. DCA showed that the model was beneficial to patients in both the training and test sets. A network calculator developed based on the SHAP-based SVM model can be used for clinical risk assessment ( https://nicolazhang.shinyapps.io/refracture_shap/ )., Conclusions: The SVM-based ML model was effective in predicting the risk of new-onset OVCF after PVP, and the network calculator provides a practical tool for clinical decision-making. This study contributes to personalised care in spinal surgery., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Both HIV and TB are chronic infectious diseases requiring long-term treatment and follow-up, resulting in extensive electronic medical records. With the exponential growth of health and medical big data, effectively extracting and analyzing these data has become the research hotspot. As a fundamental aspect of artificial intelligence, machine learning has been extensively applied in medical research, encompassing diagnosis, treatment, patient monitoring, drug development, and epidemiological investigations. This significantly enhances medical information systems and facilitates the interoperability of medical data. Methods: In our study, we analyzed longitudinal data from the electronic health records of 4540 patients, gathered from the National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases in Shenzhen, China, spanning from 2017 to 2021. Initially, we employed the fine-tuned ChatGLM to structure the electronic medical records. Subsequently, we utilized a multi-layer perceptron to classify each patient and determined the presence of tuberculosis in HIV patients. Using machine learning-based natural language processing, we structured these records to build a specialized database for HIV and TB co-infection. We studied the epidemiological characteristics, focusing on incidence patterns, patient characteristics, and influencing factors, to uncover the transmission characteristics of these diseases in Shenzhen. Additionally, we used Long Short-Term Memory to create a predictive model for TB co-infection among HIV patients, based on their medical records. This model predicted the risk of TB co-infection, providing scientific evidence for clinical decision-making and enabling early detection and precise intervention. Results: Based on the refined ChatGLM model tailored for structured electronic health records, the accuracy of symptom extraction consistently surpassed 0.95 precision. Key symptoms such as diarrhea and normal showed precision rates exceeding 0.90. High scores were also achieved in recall and F1 scores. Among 4540 HIV patients, 758 were diagnosed with concurrent tuberculosis, indicating a 16.7% co-infection rate, while syphilis co-infection affected 25.1%, underscoring the prevalence of concurrent infections among HIV patients. Utilizing electronic health records, a Multilayer Perceptron classifier was developed as a benchmark against Long Short-Term Memory to predict high-risk groups for HIV and tuberculosis co-infections. The Multilayer Perceptron classifier demonstrated predictive ability with AUROC values ranging from 0.616 to 0.682 on the test set, suggesting opportunities for further optimization and generalization despite its accuracy in identifying HIV-TB co-infections. In tuberculosis intelligent diagnosis based on laboratory results, the Long Short-Term Memory showed consistent performance across 5-fold cross-validation, with AUROC values ranging from 0.827 to 0.850, indicating reliability and consistency in tuberculosis prediction. Furthermore, by optimizing classification thresholds, the model achieved an overall accuracy of 81.18% in distinguishing HIV co-infected tuberculosis from simple HIV infection. Conclusion: Combining the Multilayer Perceptron classifier with Long Short-Term Memory represented an advanced approach for effectively extracting electronic health records and utilizing it for disease prediction. This underscored the superior performance of deep learning techniques in managing both structured and unstructured medical data. Models leveraging laboratory time-series data demonstrated notably better performance compared to those relying solely on electronic health records for predicting tuberculosis incidence. This emphasized the benefits of deep learning in handling intricate medical data and provided valuable insights for healthcare providers exploring the use of deep learning in disease prediction and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Prediction of lymph node metastasis (LNM) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is critical for the treatment regimen and prognosis. We aim to develop and validate machine learning (ML)-based predictive models for LNM in patients with ICC. Methods: A total of 345 patients with clinicopathological characteristics confirmed ICC from Jan 2007 to Jan 2019 were enrolled. The predictors of LNM were identified by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and logistic analysis. The selected variables were used for developing prediction models for LNM by six ML algorithms, including Logistic regression (LR), Gradient boosting machine (GBM), Extreme gradient boosting (XGB), Random Forest (RF), Decision tree (DT), Multilayer perceptron (MLP). We applied 10-fold cross validation as internal validation and calculated the average of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the performance of all models. A feature selection approach was applied to identify importance of predictors in each model. The heat map was used to investigate the correlation of features. Finally, we established a web calculator using the best-performing model. Results: In multivariate logistic regression analysis, factors including alcoholic liver disease (ALD), smoking, boundary, diameter, and white blood cell (WBC) were identified as independent predictors for LNM in patients with ICC. In internal validation, the average values of AUC of six models ranged from 0.820 to 0.908. The XGB model was identified as the best model, the average AUC was 0.908. Finally, we established a web calculator by XGB model, which was useful for clinicians to calculate the likelihood of LNM. Conclusion: The proposed ML-based predicted models had a good performance to predict LNM of patients with ICC. XGB performed best. A web calculator based on the ML algorithm showed promise in assisting clinicians to predict LNM and developed individualized medical plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is a most prevalent cause of serious long-term disability worldwide. Accurate prediction of stroke prognosis is highly valuable for effective intervention and treatment. As such, the present retrospective study aims to provide a reliable machine learning-based model for prognosis prediction in AIS patients. Data from AIS patients were collected retrospectively from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University between August 2017 and July 2019. Independent prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic analysis and used to develop machine learning (ML) models. The ML model performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and radar plot. Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) values were used to interpret the importance of all features included in the predictive model. A total of 677 AIS patients were included in the present study. Poor prognosis was observed in 209 patients (30.9%). Six variables, including neuron specific enolase (NSE), homocysteine (HCY), S-100β, dysphagia, C-reactive protein (CRP), and anticoagulation were included to establish ML models. Six different ML algorithms were tested, and Random Forest model was selected as the final predictive model with the greatest AUC of 0.908. Moreover, according to SHAP results, NSE impacted the predictive model the most, followed by HCY, S-100β, dysphagia, CRP and anticoagulation. Based on the RF model, an online tool was constructed to predict the prognosis of AIS patients and assist clinicians in optimizing patient treatment. The present study revealed that NSE, HCY, CRP, S-100β, anticoagulation, and dysphagia were important factors for poor prognosis in AIS patients. ML algorithms were used to develop predictive models for predicting the prognosis of AIS patients, with the RF model presenting the optimal performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heart failure (HF) imposes significant global health costs due to its high incidence, readmission, and mortality rate. Accurate assessment of readmission risk and precise interventions have become important measures to improve health for patients with HF. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model to predict 30-day unplanned readmissions in older patients with HF. This study collected data on hospitalized older patients with HF from the medical data platform of Chongqing Medical University from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021. A total of 5 candidate algorithms were selected from 15 ML algorithms with excellent performance, which was evaluated by area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC) and accuracy. Then, the 5 candidate algorithms were hyperparameter tuned by 5-fold cross-validation grid search, and performance was evaluated by AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and recall. Finally, an optimal ML model was constructed, and the predictive results were explained using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework. A total of 14,843 older patients with HF were consecutively enrolled. CatBoost model was selected as the best prediction model, and AUC was 0.732, with 0.712 accuracy, 0.619 sensitivity, and 0.722 specificity. NT.proBNP, length of stay (LOS), triglycerides, blood phosphorus, blood potassium, and lactate dehydrogenase had the greatest effect on 30-day unplanned readmission in older patients with HF, according to SHAP results. The study developed a CatBoost model to predict the risk of unplanned 30-day special-cause readmission in older patients with HF, which showed more significant performance compared with the traditional logistic regression model. • Building optimal prediction models using 15 machine learning algorithms. • The CatBoost model is the optimal prediction model and is interpreted using the SHAP framework. • NT.proBNP, triglycerides, blood phosphorus, blood potassium and lactate dehydrogenase are important risk factors. • Overall, readmission rate of older heart failure patients increased until 2020, but after 2019, there was a sudden decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective. To establish and verify the clinical prediction model of lung metastasis in renal cancer patients. Method. Kidney cancer patients from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2017, in the SEER database were enrolled in this study. In the first section, LASSO method was adopted to select variables. Independent influencing factors were identified after multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the second section, machine learning (ML) algorithms were implemented to establish models and 10-foldcross-validation was used to train the models. Finally, receiver operating characteristic curves, probability density functions, and clinical utility curve were applied to estimate model's performance. The final model was shown by a website calculator. Result. Lung metastasis was confirmed in 7.43% (3171 out of 42650) of study population. In multivariate logistic regression, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, grade, liver metastasis, N stage, T stage, and tumor size were independent risk factors of lung metastasis in renal cancer patients. Primary site and sequence number were independent protection factors of LM in renal cancer patients. The above 9 impact factors were used to develop the prediction models, which included random forest (RF), naive Bayes classifier (NBC), decision tree (DT), xgboost (XGB), gradient boosting machine (GBM), and logistic regression (LR). In 10-foldcross-validation, the average area under curve (AUC) ranked from 0.907 to 0.934. In ROC curve analysis, AUC ranged from 0.879–0.922. We found that the XGB model performed best, and a Web-based calculator was done according to XGB model. Conclusion. This study provided preliminary evidence that the ML algorithm can be used to predict lung metastases in patients with kidney cancer. This low cost, noninvasive and easy to implement diagnostic method is useful for clinical work. Of course this model still needs to undergo more real-world validation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Lung metastasis greatly affects medical therapeutic strategies in osteosarcoma. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to predict the risk of lung metastasis among osteosarcoma patients based on machine learning (ML) algorithms. Methods. We retrospectively collected osteosarcoma patients from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and from four hospitals in China. Six ML algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), gradient boosting machine (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), and multilayer perceptron (MLP), were applied to build predictive models for predicting lung metastasis using patient's demographics, clinical characteristics, and therapeutic variables from the SEER database. The model was internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation to calculate the mean area under the curve (AUC) and the model was externally validated using the Chinese multicenter osteosarcoma data. Relative importance ranking of predictors was plotted to understand the importance of each predictor in different ML algorithms. The correlation heat map of predictors was plotted to understand the correlation of each predictor, selecting the 10-fold cross-validation with the highest AUC value in the external validation ROC curve to build a web calculator. Results. Of all enrolled patients from the SEER database, 17.73% (194/1094) developed lung metastasis. The multiple logistic regression analysis showed that sex, N stage, T stage, surgery, and bone metastasis were all independent risk factors for lung metastasis. In predicting lung metastasis, the mean AUCs of the six ML algorithms ranged from 0.711 to 0.738 in internal validation and 0.697 to 0.729 in external validation. Among the six ML algorithms, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model had the highest AUC value with an average internal AUC of 0.738 and an external AUC of 0.729. The best performing ML algorithm model was used to build a web calculator to facilitate clinicians to calculate the risk of lung metastasis for each patient. Conclusions. The XGBoost model may have the best prediction effect and the online calculator based on this model can help doctors to determine the lung metastasis risk of osteosarcoma patients and help to make individualized medical strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose. Since the prognosis of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients with bone metastasis (BM) is poor, this study is aimed at using big data to build a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of BM in RCC patients. Methods. A retrospective study was conducted on 40,355 RCC patients in the SEER database from 2010 to 2017. LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent risk factors of RCC-BM. Six ML algorithm models, including LR, GBM, XGB, RF, DT, and NBC, were used to establish risk models for predicting RCC-BM. The prediction performance of ML models was weighed by 10-fold cross-validation. Results. The study investigated 40,355 patients diagnosed with RCC in the SEER database, where 1,811 (4.5%) were BM patients. Independent risk factors for BM were tumor grade, T stage, N stage, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, and brain metastasis. Among the RCC-BM risk prediction models established by six ML algorithms, the XGB model showed the best prediction performance (AUC = 0.891). Therefore, a network calculator based on the XGB model was established to individually assess the risk of BM in patients with RCC. Conclusion. The XGB risk prediction model based on the ML algorithm performed a good prediction effect on BM in RCC patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]