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Mathematical modelling has been used to assess the level of malarial transmission, during the dry season, in Nouna province, in north-western Burkina Faso. The data used were collected, at four sites (one semi-urban and three rural), from 867 children aged 6-60 months who were randomly selected. Almost all of the children (850) completed the follow-up, which involved the active detection of malaria (i.e. febrile, smear-positive malarial infection) throughout a single dry season (December 2003-May 2004). Light traps were used to sample the local populations of Anopheles vectors, in order to estimate the daily biting rate. The mathematical model was then used to simulate the incidence of malaria, which was compared with the observed incidence. At all four study sites, new cases of malaria were observed throughout the dry season, although the level of transmission was low. The monthly incidence of malaria estimated using the mathematical model was very close to the observed incidence. The fit was sensitive to daily mosquito survival and daily human parasite clearance. In Nouna province, effective interventions to prevent malaria should not be confined to the rainy season but must continue throughout the year. The focus should be on the clearance of parasitaemias, by the use of effective drugs, and on decreasing vector survival, by the use of vector-control methods.

Background: Identification and better understanding of potential risk factors for malaria are important for targeted and cost-effective health interventions. Housing conditions have been suggested as one of the potential risk factors. This study aims to further investigate this risk factor, and is focused on the effect of the type of roof on Plasmodium falciparum infection among children below five years in the North West of Burkina Faso., Methods: In a cross-sectional study design, 661 children aged six to 60 months were randomly selected from three rural and one semi-urban site at the end of the rainy season (November 2003). The children were screened for fever and tested for Plasmodium falciparum infection. In addition, data on bed net use and house characteristics was collected from the household were each child lived. Using adjusted odds ratios, children living in house roofed with iron-sheet were compared with those in house with mud or grass roof., Results: Overall P. falciparum infection prevalence was 22.8 % with a significant variation between (Chi-square, p < 0.0001). The prevalence in Cissé (33.3 %) and Goni (30.6 %) were twice times more than in Nouna (15.2 %) and Kodougou (13.2 %). After adjusting for age, sex, use of bed net and housing conditions, children living in houses with mud roofs had significantly higher risk of getting P. falciparum infection compared to those living in iron-sheet roofed houses (Odds Ratio 2.6; 95% Confidence Interval, 1.4-4.7)., Conclusion: These results suggest that house characteristics should be taken into consideration when designing health intervention against P. falciparum infection and particular attention should be paid to children living in houses with mud roofs.

Background: The development and propagation of malaria parasites in their vertebrate host is a complex process in which various host and parasite factors are involved. Sometimes the evolution of parasitaemia seems to be quelled by parasite load. In order to understand the typical dynamics of evolution of parasitaemia, various mathematical models have been developed. The basic premise ingrained in most models is that the availability of uninfected red blood cells (RBC) in which the parasite develops is a limiting factor in the propagation of the parasite population., Presentation of the Hypothesis: We would like to propose that except in extreme cases of severe malaria, there is no limitation in the supply of uninfected RBC for the increase of parasite population., Testing the Hypothesis: In this analysis we examine the biological attributes of the parasite-infected RBC such as cytoadherence and rosette formation, and the rheological properties of infected RBC, and evaluate their effects on blood flow and clogging of capillaries. We argue that there should be no restriction in the availability of uninfected RBC in patients., Implication of the Hypothesis: There is no justification for the insertion of RBC supply as a factor in mathematical models that describe the evolution of parasitaemia in the infected host. Indeed, more recent models, that have not inserted this factor, successfully describe the evolution of parasitaemia in the infected host.

Although artesunate, one of the potent derivatives of the qinghaosu family of drugs for treating falciparum malaria, is already in use in the field, its therapeutic protocol has only been developed empirically by hit-or-miss. A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model, required for creating such a protocol, is not straightforward. Artesunate presents extremely fast pharmacokinetics. As a result the stage specificity of its action must be treated explicitly. Also, use of standard PK-PD modelling fails to explain the clinical results. Our PK-PD modelling of its activity leads us to the postulation of the existence of a novel effect: a small fraction of the parasites, as a result of chemotherapeutic pressure, become cytostatic, or 'dormant'. At this stage, the parasite cycle is halted, making them unsusceptible to further dosing until wakening. This slows down the antimalarial activity of the drug, entailing either many frequent doses or an extended period of treatment and surveillance. Based on our modelling, we suggest a method for deciding on rational models of chemotherapy against falciparum malaria.

The development of malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum is a complex, multi-stage process. It is usually characterized by an exponential growth in the number of parasite-infected erythrocytes, followed by marked oscillations in this number with a period of 48 h, which are eventually dampened. This course of events has been the subject of various mathematical models. In this paper we propose a new mathematical model for the in-host asexual erythrocytic development of P. falciparum malaria. Synchronicity of the infection is shown to be an inherent feature of infection, irrespective of the duration of merozoite release from the liver. It will, therefore, cause periodic symptoms, as known in malaria patients. We also simulate the effects of an induced host immune response and show how the level of immunity affects the development of disease. The simulations fit well with the clinical observations. We show how infection can become asynchronous and discuss the effect of desynchronization on the circulating and total parasitaemia and demonstrate that synchronized broods will show parasitaemia fluctuations.

We have attempted to provide a rational basis for improving the protocols for chemotherapy of malaria. We model the regression of parasitaemia by Plasmodium falciparum, its subsequent elimination from the body, or recrudescence, for populations of cells treated with chloroquine. Our model assumes that drug forms a complex with some receptor in the parasite and that parasites possessing this complex die at a defined rate. We take into account that chloroquine is eliminated exponentially from the body. We show how the parameters of the model can be derived from observations in the field. The model correctly predicts the effects of drug dose, degree of initial parasitaemia, rate of parasite multiplication and degree of drug resistance to chloroquine chemotherapy. The level of parasitaemia will reduce to a minimum at sufficiently high concentrations of chloroquine, but only if the parasitaemia is reduced to below that of 1 parasite per infected person will a cure of malaria be obtained. Otherwise, recrudescence will, sooner or later, occur. We show that, even for drug-resistant malaria, if 2 doses of chloroquine are given to a patient with an interval of some 10 days between them, parasites can be eliminated from the body without toxic levels of chloroquine being reached.