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Background: Over the last decades, the number of malaria cases has drastically reduced in Cambodia. As the overall prevalence of malaria in Cambodia declines, residual malaria transmission becomes increasingly fragmented over smaller remote regions. The aim of this study was to get an insight into the burden and epidemiological parameters of Plasmodium infections on the forest-fringe of Cambodia., Methods: 950 participants were recruited in the province of Mondulkiri in Cambodia and followed up from 2018 to 2020. Whole-blood samples were processed for Plasmodium spp. identification by PCR as well as for a serological immunoassay. A risk factor analysis was conducted for Plasmodium vivax PCR-detected infections throughout the study, and for P. vivax seropositivity at baseline. To evaluate the predictive effect of seropositivity at baseline on subsequent PCR-positivity, an analysis of P. vivax infection-free survival time stratified by serological status at baseline was performed., Results: Living inside the forest significantly increased the odds of P. vivax PCR-positivity by a factor of 18.3 (95% C.I. 7.7-43.5). Being a male adult was also a significant predictor of PCR-positivity. Similar risk profiles were identified for P. vivax seropositivity. The survival analysis showed that serological status at baseline significantly correlated with subsequent infection. Serology is most informative outside of the forest, where 94.0% (95% C.I. 90.7-97.4%) of seronegative individuals survived infection-free, compared to 32.4% (95% C.I.: 22.6-46.6%) of seropositive individuals., Conclusion: This study justifies the need for serological diagnostic assays to target interventions in this region, particularly in demographic groups where a lot of risk heterogeneity persists, such as outside of the forest., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Large reductions in the global malaria burden have been achieved, but plateauing funding poses a challenge for progressing towards the ultimate goal of malaria eradication. Using previously published mathematical models of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission incorporating insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) as an illustrative intervention, we sought to identify the global funding allocation that maximized impact under defined objectives and across a range of global funding budgets. The optimal strategy for case reduction mirrored an allocation framework that prioritizes funding for high-transmission settings, resulting in total case reductions of 76% and 66% at intermediate budget levels, respectively. Allocation strategies that had the greatest impact on case reductions were associated with lesser near-term impacts on the global population at risk. The optimal funding distribution prioritized high ITN coverage in high-transmission settings endemic for P. falciparum only, while maintaining lower levels in low-transmission settings. However, at high budgets, 62% of funding was targeted to low-transmission settings co-endemic for P. falciparum and P. vivax . These results support current global strategies to prioritize funding to high-burden P. falciparum -endemic settings in sub-Saharan Africa to minimize clinical malaria burden and progress towards elimination, but highlight a trade-off with 'shrinking the map' through a focus on near-elimination settings and addressing the burden of P. vivax ., Competing Interests: NS, HT, MP, GC, PW, MW, KH, AG No competing interests declared, (© 2023, Schmit, Topazian, Pianella et al.)

As progress towards malaria elimination continues, the challenge posed by the parasite species Plasmodium vivax has become more evident. In many regions co-endemic for P. vivax and Plasmodium falciparum , as transmission has declined the proportion of cases due to P. vivax has increased. Novel tools that directly target P. vivax are thus warranted for accelerated elimination. There is currently no advanced vaccine for P. vivax and only a limited number of potential candidates in the pipeline. In this study we aimed to identify promising P. vivax proteins that could be used as part of a subunit vaccination approach. We screened 342 P . vivax protein constructs for their ability to induce IgG antibody responses associated with protection from clinical disease in a cohort of children from Papua New Guinea. This approach has previously been used to successfully identify novel candidates. We were able to confirm previous results from our laboratory identifying the proteins reticulocyte binding protein 2b and StAR-related lipid transfer protein, as well as at least four novel candidates with similar levels of predicted protective efficacy. Assessment of these P. vivax proteins in further studies to confirm their potential and identify functional mechanisms of protection against clinical disease are warranted., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Mazhari, Takashima, Longley, Ruybal-Pesantez, White, Kanoi, Nagaoka, Kiniboro, Siba, Tsuboi and Mueller.)

In the Amazon Region of Peru, occupational activities are important drivers of human mobility and may increase the individual risk of being infected while contributing to increasing malaria community-level transmission. Even though out-of-village working activities and other mobility patterns have been identified as determinants of malaria transmission, no studies have quantified the effect of out-of-village working activities on recent malaria exposure and proposed plausible intervention scenarios. Using two population-based cross-sectional studies in the Loreto Department in Peru, and the parametric g-formula method, we simulated various hypothetical scenarios intervening in out-of-village working activities to reflect their potential health benefits. This study estimated that the standardized mean outcome (malaria seroprevalence) in the unexposed population (no out-of-village workers) was 44.6% (95% CI: 41.7%-47.5%) and 66.7% (95% CI: 61.6%-71.8%) in the exposed population resulting in a risk difference of 22.1% (95% CI: 16.3%-27.9%). However, heterogeneous patterns in the effects of interest were observed between peri-urban and rural areas (Cochran's Q test = 15.5, p < 0.001). Heterogeneous patterns were also observed in scenarios of increased prevalence of out-of-village working activities and restriction scenarios by gender (male vs. female) and age (18 and under vs. 19 and older) that inform possible occupational interventions targetting population subgroups. The findings of this study support the hypothesis that targeting out-of-village workers will considerably benefit current malaria elimination strategies in the Amazon Region. Particularly, males and adult populations that carried out out-of-village working activities in rural areas contribute the most to the malaria seropositivity (recent exposure to the parasite) in the Peruvian Amazon., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Co-infection of the four major species of human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), P. vivax (Pv), P. malariae (Pm), and P. ovale sp. (Po) is regularly observed, but there is limited understanding of between-species interactions. In particular, little is known about the effects of multiple Plasmodium species co-infections on gametocyte production., Methods: We developed molecular assays for detecting asexual and gametocyte stages of Pf, Pv, Pm, and Po. This is the first description of molecular diagnostics for Pm and Po gametocytes. These assays were implemented in a unique epidemiological setting in Papua New Guinea with sympatric transmission of all four Plasmodium species permitting a comprehensive investigation of species interactions., Findings: The observed frequency of Pf-Pv co-infection for asexual parasites (14.7%) was higher than expected from individual prevalence rates (23.8%Pf x 47.4%Pv = 11.3%). The observed frequency of co-infection with Pf and Pv gametocytes (4.6%) was higher than expected from individual prevalence rates (13.1%Pf x 28.2%Pv = 3.7%). The excess risk of co-infection was 1.38 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.67) for all parasites and 1.37 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.79) for gametocytes. This excess co-infection risk was partially attributable to malaria infections clustering in some villages. Pf-Pv-Pm triple infections were four times more frequent than expected by chance alone, which could not be fully explained by infections clustering in highly exposed individuals. The effect of co-infection on parasite density was analyzed by systematic comparison of all pairwise interactions. This revealed a significant 6.57-fold increase of Pm density when co-infected with Pf. Pm gametocytemia also increased with Pf co-infection., Conclusions: Heterogeneity in exposure to mosquitoes is a key epidemiological driver of Plasmodium co-infection. Among the four co-circulating parasites, Pm benefitted most from co-infection with other species. Beyond this, no general prevailing pattern of suppression or facilitation was identified in pairwise analysis of gametocytemia and parasitemia of the four species., Trial Registration: This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, Trial ID: NCT02143934., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

A more sensitive surveillance tool is needed to identify Plasmodium vivax infections for treatment and to accelerate malaria elimination efforts. To address this challenge, our laboratory has developed an eight-antigen panel that detects total IgG as serological markers of P. vivax exposure within the prior 9 months. The value of these markers has been established for use in areas with low transmission. In moderate-high transmission areas, there is evidence that total IgG is more long-lived than in areas with low transmission, resulting in poorer performance of these markers in these settings. Antibodies that are shorter-lived may be better markers of recent infection for use in moderate-high transmission areas. Using a multiplex assay, the antibody temporal kinetics of total IgG, IgG1, IgG3, and IgM against 29 P . vivax antigens were measured over 36 weeks following asymptomatic P. vivax infection in Papua New Guinean children ( n  = 31), from an area with moderate-high transmission intensity. IgG3 declined faster to background than total IgG, IgG1, and IgM. Based on these kinetics, IgG3 performance was then assessed for classifying recent exposure in a cohort of Peruvian individuals ( n  = 590; age 3-85 years) from an area of moderate transmission intensity. Using antibody responses against individual antigens, the highest performance of IgG3 in classifying recent P. vivax infections in the prior 9 months was to one of the Pv-fam-a proteins assessed (PVX&#95;125728) (AUC = 0.764). Surprisingly, total IgG was overall a better marker of recent P. vivax infection, with the highest individual classification performance to RBP2b 1986-2653 (PVX&#95;094255) (AUC = 0.838). To understand the acquisition of IgG3 in this Peruvian cohort, relevant epidemiological factors were explored using a regression model. IgG3 levels were positively associated with increasing age, living in an area with (relatively) higher transmission intensity, and having three or more PCR-detected blood-stage P. vivax infections within the prior 13 months. Overall, we found that IgG3 did not have high accuracy for detecting recent exposure to P. vivax in the Peruvian cohort, with our data suggesting that this is due to the high levels of prior exposure required to acquire high IgG3 antibody levels., Competing Interests: RL, MW, TT, and IM are inventors on patent PCT/US17/67926 on a system, method, apparatus, and diagnostic test for P. vivax. Author MH was employed by CellFree Sciences Co., Ltd., Yokohama, Japan. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Tayipto, Rosado, Gamboa, White, Kiniboro, Healer, Opi, Beeson, Takashima, Tsuboi, Harbers, Robinson, Mueller and Longley.)

Background: The landscape of malaria transmission in the Peruvian Amazon is temporally and spatially heterogeneous, presenting different micro-geographies with particular epidemiologies. Most cases are asymptomatic and escape routine malaria surveillance based on light microscopy (LM). Following the implementation of control programs in this region, new approaches to stratify transmission and direct efforts at an individual and community level are needed. Antibody responses to serological exposure markers (SEM) to Plasmodium vivax have proven diagnostic performance to identify people exposed in the previous 9 months., Methodology: We measured antibody responses against 8 SEM to identify recently exposed people and determine the transmission dynamics of P. vivax in peri-urban (Iquitos) and riverine (Mazán) communities of Loreto, communities that have seen significant recent reductions in malaria transmission. Socio-demographic, geo-reference, LM and qPCR diagnosis data were collected from two cross-sectional surveys. Spatial and multilevel analyses were implemented to describe the distribution of seropositive cases and the risk factors associated with exposure to P. vivax., Principal Findings: Low local transmission was detected by qPCR in both Iquitos (5.3%) and Mazán (2.7%); however, seroprevalence indicated a higher level of (past) exposure to P. vivax in Mazán (56.5%) than Iquitos (38.2%). Age and being male were factors associated with high odds of being seropositive in both sites. Higher antibody levels were found in individuals >15 years old. The persistence of long-lived antibodies in these individuals could overestimate the detection of recent exposure. Antibody levels in younger populations (<15 years old) could be a better indicator of recent exposure to P. vivax., Conclusions: The large number of current and past infections detected by SEMs allows for detailed local epidemiological analyses, in contrast to data from qPCR prevalence surveys which did not produce statistically significant associations. Serological surveillance will be increasingly important in the Peruvian Amazon as malaria transmission is reduced by continued control and elimination efforts., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: MTW and IM are inventors on patent PCT/US17/67926 on a system, method, apparatus and diagnostic test for Plasmodium vivax. No other authors declare a conflict of interest.

Background: Development of an effective vaccine against the pathogenic blood-stage infection of human malaria has proved challenging, and no candidate vaccine has affected blood-stage parasitemia following controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) with blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum ., Methods: We undertook a phase I/IIa clinical trial in healthy adults in the United Kingdom of the RH5.1 recombinant protein vaccine, targeting the P. falciparum reticulocyte-binding protein homolog 5 (RH5), formulated in AS01 B adjuvant. We assessed safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy against blood-stage CHMI. Trial registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02927145., Findings: The RH5.1/AS01 B formulation was administered using a range of RH5.1 protein vaccine doses (2, 10, and 50 μg) and was found to be safe and well tolerated. A regimen using a delayed and fractional third dose, in contrast to three doses given at monthly intervals, led to significantly improved antibody response longevity over ∼2 years of follow-up. Following primary and secondary CHMI of vaccinees with blood-stage P. falciparum , a significant reduction in parasite growth rate was observed, defining a milestone for the blood-stage malaria vaccine field. We show that growth inhibition activity measured in vitro using purified immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody strongly correlates with in vivo reduction of the parasite growth rate and also identify other antibody feature sets by systems serology, including the plasma anti-RH5 IgA1 response, that are associated with challenge outcome., Conclusions: Our data provide a new framework to guide rational design and delivery of next-generation vaccines to protect against malaria disease., Funding: This study was supported by USAID, UK MRC, Wellcome Trust, NIAID, and the NIHR Oxford-BRC., Competing Interests: A.D.D. and S.J.D. are named inventors on patent applications relating to RH5 and/or other malaria vaccines and immunization regimens. W.A.d.J. is an employee of and shareholder in ExpreS2ion Biotechnologies, which has developed and is marketing the ExpreS2 cell expression platform. A.R.N. is an employee of Leidos, Inc., which holds the MVDP prime contract (AID-OAA-C-15-00071). A.M.M. has an immediate family member who is an inventor on patents relating to RH5 and/or other malaria vaccines and immunization regimens., (© 2021 The Author(s).)

Most deaths from severe falciparum malaria occur within 24 h of presentation to a hospital. Intravenous (i.v.) artesunate is the first-line treatment for severe falciparum malaria, but its efficacy may be compromised by delayed parasitological responses. In patients with severe malaria, the life-saving benefit of the artemisinin derivatives is their ability to clear circulating parasites rapidly, before they can sequester and obstruct the microcirculation. To evaluate the dosing of i.v. artesunate for the treatment of artemisinin-sensitive and reduced ring stage sensitivity to artemisinin severe falciparum malaria infections, Bayesian pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling of data from 94 patients with severe malaria (80 children from Africa and 14 adults from Southeast Asia) was performed. Assuming that delayed parasite clearance reflects a loss of ring stage sensitivity to artemisinin derivatives, the median (95% credible interval) percentage of patients clearing ≥99% of parasites within 24 h (PC24≥99%) for standard (2.4 mg/kg body weight i.v. artesunate at 0 and 12 h) and simplified (4 mg/kg i.v. artesunate at 0 h) regimens was 65% (52.5% to 74.5%) versus 44% (25% to 61.5%) for adults, 62% (51.5% to 74.5%) versus 39% (20.5% to 58.5%) for larger children (≥20 kg), and 60% (48.5% to 70%) versus 36% (20% to 53.5%) for smaller children (<20 kg). The upper limit of the credible intervals for all regimens was below a PC24≥99% of 80%, a threshold achieved on average in clinical studies of severe falciparum malaria infections. In severe falciparum malaria caused by parasites with reduced ring stage susceptibility to artemisinin, parasite clearance is predicted to be slower with both the currently recommended and proposed simplified i.v. artesunate dosing regimens., (Copyright © 2021 American Society for Microbiology.)

Prevalence and levels of antibodies to multiple Plasmodium falciparum antigens show promise as tools for estimating malaria exposure. In a highland area of Kenya with unstable transmission, we assessed the presence and levels of antibodies to 12 pre-erythrocytic and blood-stage P. falciparum antigens by multiplex cytometric bead assay or ELISA in 604 individuals in August 2007, with follow-up testing in this cohort in April 2008, April 2009, and May 2010. Four hundred individuals were tested at all four time points. During this period, the only substantial malaria incidence occurred from April to August 2009. Antibody prevalence in adults was high at all time points (> 70%) for apical membrane antigen 1, erythrocyte-binding antigen 175, erythrocyte-binding protein-2, glutamate rich protein (GLURP)-R2, merozoite surface protein (MSP) 1 (19), MSP-1 (42), and liver-stage antigen-1; moderate (30-70%) for GLURP-R0, MSP-3, and thrombospondin-related adhesive protein; and low (< 30%) for SE and circumsporozoite protein (CSP). Changes in community-wide malaria exposure were best reflected in decreasing antibody levels overtime for highly immunogenic antigens, and in antibody seroprevalence overtime for the less-immunogenic antigens. Over the 3 years, antibody levels to all antigens except CSP and schizont extract (SE) decreased in an age-dependent manner. Prevalence and levels of antibodies to all antigens except CSP and SE increased with age. Increases in antibody prevalence and levels to CSP and SE coincided with increases in community-wide malaria incidence. Antibody levels to multiple P. falciparum antigens decrease in the absence of consistent transmission. Multiplex assays that assess both the presence and level of antibodies to multiple pre-erythrocytic and blood-stage P. falciparum antigens may provide the most useful estimates of past and recent malaria transmission in areas of unstable transmission and could be useful tools in malaria control and elimination campaigns.

Anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres have been established as an essential indicator for evaluating the immunogenicity and protective capacity of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine. However, a new delayed-fractional dose regime of the vaccine was recently shown to increase vaccine efficacy, from 62.5% (95% CI 29.4-80.1%) under the original dosing schedule to 86.7% (95% CI, 66.8-94.6%) without a corresponding increase in antibody titres. Here we reanalyse the antibody data from this challenge trial to determine whether IgG avidity may help to explain efficacy better than IgG titre alone by adapting a within-host mathematical model of sporozoite inoculation. We demonstrate that a model incorporating titre and avidity provides a substantially better fit to the data than titre alone. These results also suggest that in individuals with a high antibody titre response that also show high avidity (both metrics in the top tercile of observed values) delayed-fractional vaccination provided near perfect protection upon first challenge (98.2% [95% Credible Interval 91.6-99.7%]). This finding suggests that the quality of the vaccine induced antibody response is likely to be an important determinant in the development of highly efficacious pre-erythrocytic vaccines against malaria., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: ‘ACG has a data-transfer agreement with GSK Vaccines to cover ongoing analysis of trial data related to the RTS,S vaccine. She does not receive any funding from GSK for this work. All other authors declare no competing interests.’., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Clinical immunity to malaria develops after repeated exposure to Plasmodium falciparum parasites. Broadly reactive antibodies against parasite antigens expressed on the surface of infected erythrocytes (variable surface antigens; VSAs) are candidates for anti-malaria therapeutics and vaccines. Among the VSAs, several RIFIN, STEVOR, and SURFIN family members have been demonstrated to be targets of naturally acquired immunity against malaria. For example, RIFIN family members are important ligands for opsonization of P. falciparum infected erythrocytes with specific immunoglobulins (IgG) acquiring broad protective reactivity. However, the global repertoire of human anti-VSAs IgG, its variation in children, and the key protective targets remain poorly understood. Here, we report wheat germ cell-free system-based production and serological profiling of a comprehensive library of A-RIFINs, B-RIFINs, STEVORs, and SURFINs derived from the P. falciparum 3D7 parasite strain. We observed that >98% of assayed proteins ( n = 265) were immunogenic in malaria-exposed individuals in Uganda. The overall breadth of immune responses was significantly correlated with age but not with clinical malaria outcome among the study volunteers. However, children with high levels of antibodies to four RIFINs (PF3D7&#95;0201000, PF3D7&#95;1254500, PF3D7&#95;1040600, PF3D7&#95;1041100), STEVOR (PF3D7&#95;0732000), and SURFIN 1.2 (PF3D7&#95;0113600) had prospectively reduced the risk of developing febrile malaria, suggesting that the 5 antigens are important targets of protective immunity. Further studies on the significance of repeated exposure to malaria infection and maintenance of such high-level antibodies would contribute to a better understanding of susceptibility and naturally acquired immunity to malaria., (Copyright © 2020 Kanoi, Nagaoka, White, Morita, Palacpac, Ntege, Balikagala, Yeka, Egwang, Horii, Tsuboi and Takashima.)

Antibodies against P. falciparum merozoites fix complement to inhibit blood-stage replication in naturally-acquired and vaccine-induced immunity; however, specific targets of these functional antibodies and their importance in protective immunity are unknown. Among malaria-exposed individuals, we show that complement-fixing antibodies to merozoites are more strongly correlated with protective immunity than antibodies that inhibit growth quantified using the current reference assay for merozoite vaccine evaluation. We identify merozoite targets of complement-fixing antibodies and identify antigen-specific complement-fixing antibodies that are strongly associated with protection from malaria in a longitudinal study of children. Using statistical modelling, combining three different antigens targeted by complement-fixing antibodies could increase the potential protective effect to over 95%, and we identify antigens that were common in the most protective combinations. Our findings support antibody-complement interactions against merozoite antigens as important anti-malaria immune mechanisms, and identify specific merozoite antigens for further evaluation as vaccine candidates.

Background: Antibodies against merozoite antigens are key components of malaria immunity. The naturally acquired antibody response to these antigens is generally considered short-lived; however, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Prospective studies of travellers with different levels of prior exposure, returning to malaria-free countries with Plasmodium infection, offer a unique opportunity to investigate the kinetics and composition of the antibody response after natural infection., Methods: Adults diagnosed with P. falciparum malaria in Stockholm, Sweden (20 likely malaria naïve and 41 with repeated previous exposure during residency in sub-Saharan Africa) were sampled at diagnosis and 10 days and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after treatment. Total and subclass-specific IgG responses to P. falciparum merozoite antigens (AMA-1, MSP-1 19 , MSP-2, MSP-3, and RH5) and tetanus toxoid were measured by multiplex bead-based immunoassays and ELISA. Mathematical modelling was used to estimate the exposure-dependent longevity of antibodies and antibody-secreting cells (ASCs)., Results: A majority of individuals mounted detectable antibody responses towards P. falciparum merozoite antigens at diagnosis; however, the magnitude and breadth were greater in individuals with prior exposure. In both exposure groups, antibody levels increased rapidly for 2 weeks and decayed thereafter. Previously exposed individuals maintained two- to ninefold greater antibody levels throughout the 1-year follow-up. The half-lives of malaria-specific long-lived ASCs, responsible for maintaining circulating antibodies, ranged from 1.8 to 3.7 years for merozoite antigens and were considerably short compared to tetanus-specific ASCs. Primary infected individuals did acquire a long-lived component of the antibody response; however, the total proportion of long-lived ASCs generated in response to infection was estimated not to exceed 10%. In contrast, previously exposed individuals maintained substantially larger numbers of long-lived ASCs (10-56% of total ASCs)., Conclusion: The short-lived nature of the naturally acquired antibody response, to all tested merozoite antigens, following primary malaria infection can be attributed to a combination of a poor acquisition and short half-life of long-lived ASCs. Greater longevity is acquired with repeated infections and can be explained by the maintenance of larger numbers of long-lived ASCs. These insights advance our understanding of naturally acquired malaria immunity and will guide strategies for further development of both vaccines and serological tools to monitor exposure.

Background: In malaria endemic populations, complex patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection dynamics may be observed. Genotyping samples from longitudinal cohort studies for merozoite surface protein (msp) variants increases the information available in the data, allowing multiple infecting parasite clones in a single individual to be identified. msp genotyped samples from two longitudinal cohorts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Thailand were analysed using a statistical model where the times of acquisition and clearance of each clone in every individual were estimated using a process of data augmentation., Results: For the populations analysed, the duration of blood-stage P. falciparum infection was estimated as 36 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29, 44) days in PNG, and 135 (95% CrI 94, 191) days in Thailand. Experiments on simulated data indicated that it was not possible to accurately estimate the duration of blood-stage P. vivax infections due to the lack of identifiability between a single blood-stage infection and multiple, sequential blood-stage infections caused by relapses. Despite this limitation, the method and data point towards short duration of blood-stage P. vivax infection with a lower bound of 24 days in PNG, and 29 days in Thailand. On an individual level, P. vivax recurrences cannot be definitively classified into re-infections, recrudescences or relapses, but a probabilistic relapse phenotype can be assigned to each P. vivax sample, allowing investigation of the association between epidemiological covariates and the incidence of relapses., Conclusion: The statistical model developed here provides a useful new tool for in-depth analysis of malaria data from longitudinal cohort studies, and future application to data sets with multi-locus genotyping will allow more detailed investigation of infection dynamics.

The key targets of protective antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum remain largely unknown. In this study, we determined immunoreactivity to 1827 recombinant proteins derived from 1565 genes representing ∼30% of the entire P. falciparum genome, for identification of novel malaria vaccine candidates. The recombinant proteins were expressed by wheat germ cell-free system, a platform that can synthesize quality plasmodial proteins that elicit biologically active antibodies in animals. Sera were obtained from indigenous residents of a malaria endemic region in Northern Uganda who were enrolled at the start of a rainy season and prospectively monitored for symptomatic malaria episodes for a year. Immunoreactivity to sera was determined by AlphaScreen; a homogeneous high-throughput system that detects protein interactions. Our analysis revealed antibody responses to 128 proteins that significantly associated with protection from symptomatic malaria. From 128 proteins, 53 were down-selected as the most plausible targets of host protective immune response by virtue of having a predicted signal peptide and/or transmembrane domain(s), or confirmed localization on the parasite surface. The 53 proteins comprised of not only previously characterized vaccine candidates but also uncharacterized proteins. Proteins involved in erythrocyte invasion; RON4, RON2 and CLAG3.1 and pre-erythrocytic proteins; SIAP-2, TRAP and CelTOS, were recommended for prioritization for further evaluation as vaccine candidates. The findings clearly demonstrate that generation of the protein library using the wheat germ cell-free system coupled with high throughput immunoscreening with AlphaScreen offers new options for rational discovery and selection of potential malaria vaccine candidates., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

As malaria is being pushed back on many frontiers and global case numbers are declining, accurate measurement and prediction of transmission becomes increasingly difficult. Low transmission settings are characterised by high levels of spatial heterogeneity, which stands in stark contrast to the widely used assumption of spatially homogeneous transmission used in mathematical transmission models for malaria. In the present study an individual-based mathematical malaria transmission model that incorporates multiple parasite clones, variable human exposure and duration of infection, limited mosquito flight distance and most importantly geographically heterogeneous human and mosquito population densities was used to illustrate the differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous transmission assumptions when aiming to predict surrogate indicators of transmission intensity such as population parasite prevalence or multiplicity of infection (MOI). In traditionally highly malaria endemic regions where most of the population harbours malaria parasites, humans are often infected with multiple parasite clones. However, studies have shown also in areas with low overall parasite prevalence, infection with multiple parasite clones is a common occurrence. Mathematical models assuming homogeneous transmission between humans and mosquitoes cannot explain these observations. Heterogeneity of transmission can arise from many factors including acquired immunity, body size and occupational exposure. In this study, we show that spatial heterogeneity has a profound effect on predictions of MOI and parasite prevalence. We illustrate, that models assuming homogeneous transmission underestimate average MOI in low transmission settings when compared to field data and that spatially heterogeneous models predict stable transmission at much lower overall parasite prevalence. Therefore it is very important that models used to guide malaria surveillance and control strategies in low transmission and elimination settings take into account the spatial features of the specific target area, including human and mosquito vector distribution., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Increasing evidence suggests that antibodies against merozoite proteins involved in Plasmodium falciparum invasion into the red blood cell play an important role in clinical immunity to malaria. Erythrocyte-binding antigen 175 (EBA-175) is the best-characterized P. falciparum invasion ligand, reported to recognize glycophorin A on the surface of erythrocytes. Its protein structure comprises 6 extracellular regions. Whereas region II contains Duffy binding-like domains involved in the binding to glycophorin A, the functional role of regions III-V is less clear., Methods: We developed a novel cytometric bead array for assessment of antigen-specific antibody concentration in plasma to evaluate the efficacy of immune responses to different regions of EBA-175 and associations between antibody levels with protection from symptomatic malaria in a treatment-reinfection cohort study., Results: We found that while antibodies to region II are highly abundant, circulating levels as low as 5-10 µg/mL of antibodies specific for region III or the highly conserved regions IV-V predict strong protection from clinical malaria., Conclusions: These results lend support for the development of conserved regions of EBA-175 as components in a combination of a malaria vaccine., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Serology has become an increasingly important tool for the surveillance of a wide range of infectious diseases. It has been particularly useful to monitor malaria transmission in elimination settings where existing metrics such as parasite prevalence and incidence of clinical cases are less sensitive. Seroconversion rates, based on antibody prevalence to Plasmodium falciparum asexual blood-stage antigens, provide estimates of transmission intensity that correlate with entomological inoculation rates but lack precision in settings where seroprevalence is still high. Here we present a new and widely applicable method, based on cross-sectional data on individual antibody levels. We evaluate its use as a sero-surveillance tool in a Tanzanian setting with declining malaria prevalence. We find that the newly developed mathematical models produce more precise estimates of transmission patterns, are robust in high transmission settings and when sample sizes are small, and provide a powerful tool for serological evaluation of malaria transmission intensity.

Background: The phase 3 trial of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate showed modest efficacy of the vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but was not powered to assess mortality endpoints. Impact projections and cost-effectiveness estimates for longer timeframes than the trial follow-up and across a range of settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. We aimed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of routine use of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in African settings., Methods: We compared four malaria transmission models and their predictions to assess vaccine cost-effectiveness and impact. We used trial data for follow-up of 32 months or longer to parameterise vaccine protection in the group aged 5-17 months. Estimates of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted were calculated over a 15 year time horizon for a range of levels of Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in 2-10 year olds (PfPR2-10; range 3-65%). We considered two vaccine schedules: three doses at ages 6, 7·5, and 9 months (three-dose schedule, 90% coverage) and including a fourth dose at age 27 months (four-dose schedule, 72% coverage). We estimated cost-effectiveness in the presence of existing malaria interventions for vaccine prices of US$2-10 per dose., Findings: In regions with a PfPR2-10 of 10-65%, RTS,S/AS01 is predicted to avert a median of 93,940 (range 20,490-126,540) clinical cases and 394 (127-708) deaths for the three-dose schedule, or 116,480 (31,450-160,410) clinical cases and 484 (189-859) deaths for the four-dose schedule, per 100,000 fully vaccinated children. A positive impact is also predicted at a PfPR2-10 of 5-10%, but there is little impact at a prevalence of lower than 3%. At $5 per dose and a PfPR2-10 of 10-65%, we estimated a median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with current interventions of $30 (range 18-211) per clinical case averted and $80 (44-279) per DALY averted for the three-dose schedule, and of $25 (16-222) and $87 (48-244), respectively, for the four-dose schedule. Higher ICERs were estimated at low PfPR2-10 levels., Interpretation: We predict a significant public health impact and high cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine across a wide range of settings. Decisions about implementation will need to consider levels of malaria burden, the cost-effectiveness and coverage of other malaria interventions, health priorities, financing, and the capacity of the health system to deliver the vaccine., Funding: PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Global Good Fund; Medical Research Council; UK Department for International Development; GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance; WHO., (Copyright © 2016 Penny et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

A licensed malaria vaccine would provide a valuable new tool for malaria control and elimination efforts. Several candidate vaccines targeting different stages of the malaria parasite's lifecycle are currently under development, with one candidate, RTS,S/AS01 for the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection, having recently completed Phase III trials. Predicting the public health impact of a candidate malaria vaccine requires using clinical trial data to estimate the vaccine's efficacy profile--the initial efficacy following vaccination and the pattern of waning of efficacy over time. With an estimated vaccine efficacy profile, the effects of vaccination on malaria transmission can be simulated with the aid of mathematical models. Here, we provide an overview of methods for estimating the vaccine efficacy profiles of pre-erythrocytic vaccines and transmission-blocking vaccines from clinical trial data. In the case of RTS,S/AS01, model estimates from Phase II clinical trial data indicate a bi-phasic exponential profile of efficacy against infection, with efficacy waning rapidly in the first 6 months after vaccination followed by a slower rate of waning over the next 4 years. Transmission-blocking vaccines have yet to be tested in large-scale Phase II or Phase III clinical trials so we review ongoing work investigating how a clinical trial might be designed to ensure that vaccine efficacy can be estimated with sufficient statistical power. Finally, we demonstrate how parameters estimated from clinical trials can be used to predict the impact of vaccination campaigns on malaria using a mathematical model of malaria transmission., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein, inducing antibodies associated with the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection. We assessed the association between anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres and the magnitude and duration of vaccine efficacy using data from a phase 3 trial done between 2009 and 2014., Methods: Using data from 8922 African children aged 5-17 months and 6537 African infants aged 6-12 weeks at first vaccination, we analysed the determinants of immunogenicity after RTS,S/AS01 vaccination with or without a booster dose. We assessed the association between the incidence of clinical malaria and anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres using a model of anti-circumsporozoite antibody dynamics and the natural acquisition of protective immunity over time., Findings: RTS,S/AS01-induced anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres were greater in children aged 5-17 months than in those aged 6-12 weeks. Pre-vaccination anti-circumsporozoite titres were associated with lower immunogenicity in children aged 6-12 weeks and higher immunogenicity in those aged 5-17 months. The immunogenicity of the booster dose was strongly associated with immunogenicity after primary vaccination. Anti-circumsporozoite titres wane according to a biphasic exponential distribution. In participants aged 5-17 months, the half-life of the short-lived component of the antibody response was 45 days (95% credible interval 42-48) and that of the long-lived component was 591 days (557-632). After primary vaccination 12% (11-13) of the response was estimated to be long-lived, rising to 30% (28-32%) after a booster dose. An anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre of 121 EU/mL (98-153) was estimated to prevent 50% of infections. Waning anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres predict the duration of efficacy against clinical malaria across different age categories and transmission intensities, and efficacy wanes more rapidly at higher transmission intensity., Interpretation: Anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres are a surrogate of protection for the magnitude and duration of RTS,S/AS01 efficacy, with or without a booster dose, providing a valuable surrogate of effectiveness for new RTS,S formulations in the age groups considered., Funding: UK Medical Research Council., (Copyright © 2015 White et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Plasmodium falciparum EBA175 and PfRh2 belong to two main families involved in parasite invasion, and both are potential vaccine candidates. Current knowledge is limited regarding which target antigens and subclasses of antibodies are actually important for protection, and how naturally acquired immunity is achieved., Methods: Repeated blood samples were collected from individuals in Nigeria over a period of almost one year. ELISA was used to analyse subclasses of IgG responses., Results: For both EBA175 (region III-V) and (a fragment of) PfRh2, the dominant antibody responses consisted of IgG1 and IgG3 followed by IgG2, while for PfRh2 there was also a relatively prominent response for IgG4. High levels of IgG1, IgG2 and IgG3 for EBA175 and total IgG for PfRh2 correlated significantly with a lower parasitaemia during the study period. Children with HbAS had higher levels of some subclasses compared to children with HbAA, while in adults the pattern was the opposite. The half-lives of IgG2 and IgG4 against EBA175 were clearly shorter than those for IgG1 and IgG3., Conclusion: EBA175 and PfRh2 are potential targets for protective antibodies since both correlated with lower parasitaemia. The shorter half-lives for IgG2 and IgG4 might explain why these subclasses are often considered less important in protection against malaria. Triggering the right subclass responses could be of critical importance in a successful vaccine. Further studies are needed to evaluate the role of haemoglobin polymorphisms and their malaria protective effects in this process.

Background: Acquired immune responses to malaria have widely been perceived to be short-lived, with previously immune individuals losing immunity when they move from malaria-endemic areas. However long-lived Plasmodium falciparum-specific antibody responses lasting for an individual's lifetime are frequently observed., Methods: We fit mathematical models of the dynamics of antibody titers to P. falciparum antigens from longitudinal cohort studies of African children to estimate the half-lives of circulating immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies and IgG antibody-secreting cells (ASCs)., Results: Comparison of antibody responses in the younger Ghanaian cohort and the older Gambian cohort suggests that young children are less able to generate the long-lived ASCs necessary to maintain the circulating antibodies that may provide protection against reinfection. Antibody responses in African children can be described by a model 15 including both short-lived ASCs (half-life range, 2-10 days), which are responsible for boosting antibody titers following infection, and long-lived ASCs (half-life range, 3-9 years), which are responsible for maintaining sustained humoral responses., Conclusions: The rapid decay of antibodies following exposure to malaria and the maintenance of sustained antibody responses can be explained in terms of populations of short-lived and long-lived ASCs., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: The RTS,S malaria vaccine is currently undergoing phase 3 trials. High vaccine-induced antibody titres to the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) antigen have been associated with protection from infection and episodes of clinical malaria., Methods: Using data from 5,144 participants in nine phase 2 trials, we explore predictors of vaccine immunogenicity (anti-CSP antibody titres), decay in antibody titres, and the association between antibody titres and clinical outcomes. We use empirically-observed relationships between these factors to predict vaccine efficacy in a range of scenarios., Results: Vaccine-induced anti-CSP antibody titres were significantly associated with age (P = 0.04), adjuvant (P <0.001), pre-vaccination anti-hepatitis B surface antigen titres (P = 0.005) and pre-vaccination anti-CSP titres (P <0.001). Co-administration with other vaccines reduced anti-CSP antibody titres although not significantly (P = 0.095). Antibody titres showed a bi-phasic decay over time with an initial rapid decay in the first three months and a second slower decay over the next three to four years. Antibody titres were significantly associated with protection, with a titre of 51 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29 to 85) ELISA units/ml (EU/mL) predicted to prevent 50% of infections in children. Vaccine efficacy was predicted to decline to zero over four years in a setting with entomological inoculation rate (EIR) = 20 infectious bites per year (ibpy). Over a five-year follow-up period at an EIR = 20 ibpy, we predict RTS,S will avert 1,782 cases per 1,000 vaccinated children, 1,452 cases per 1,000 vaccinated infants, and 887 cases per 1,000 infants when co-administered with expanded programme on immunisation (EPI) vaccines. Our main study limitations include an absence of vaccine-induced cellular immune responses and short duration of follow-up in some individuals., Conclusions: Vaccine-induced anti-CSP antibody titres and transmission intensity can explain variations in observed vaccine efficacy.

Plasmodium falciparum infections present novel challenges for vaccine development, including parasite replication dynamics not previously encountered for viral pathogens, and enormous diversity in target antigens. These challenges are illustrated by using a mathematical model to describe the association between the proportion of pre-erythrocytic or blood-stage parasites eliminated by vaccine-induced immune responses and the proportion of infections prevented. It is hypothesized that due to the requirement for all sporozoites to be eliminated to prevent infection, combining infection-blocking vaccines that confer protection through different biological mechanisms could lead to synergistic combinations of efficacy. Vaccines targeting blood-stage parasites may also combine synergistically if they combine to reduce the parasite multiplication rate to below the threshold of 1.

Background: Understanding the role of pre-erythrocytic immune responses to Plasmodium falciparum parasites is crucial for understanding the epidemiology of malaria. However, published studies have reported inconsistent results on the association between markers of pre-erythrocytic immunity and protection from malaria., Methods: The design and statistical methods of studies of pre-erythrocytic immunity were reviewed, and factors affecting the likelihood of detecting statistically significant associations were assessed. Treatment re-infection studies were simulated to estimate the effects of study size, transmission intensity, and sampling frequency on the statistical power to detect an association between markers of pre-erythrocytic immunity and protection from infection., Results: Nine of nineteen studies reviewed reported statistically significant associations between markers of pre-erythrocytic immunity and protection from infection. Studies with large numbers of participants in high-transmission settings, followed longitudinally with active detection of infection and with immune responses analysed as continuous variables, were most likely to detect statistically significant associations. Simulation of treatment re-infection studies highlights that many studies are underpowered to detect statistically significant associations, providing an explanation for the finding that only some studies report significant associations between pre-erythrocytic immune responses and protection from infection., Conclusions: The findings of the review and model simulations are consistent with the hypothesis that pre-erythrocytic immune responses prevent P. falciparum infections, but that many studies are underpowered to consistently detect this effect.

Vaccination with the pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S induces high levels of antibodies and CD4(+) T cells specific for the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). Using a biologically-motivated mathematical model of sporozoite infection fitted to data from malaria-naive adults vaccinated with RTS,S and subjected to experimental P. falciparum challenge, we characterised the relationship between antibodies, CD4(+) T cell responses and protection from infection. Both anti-CSP antibody titres and CSP-specific CD4(+) T cells were identified as immunological surrogates of protection, with RTS,S induced anti-CSP antibodies estimated to prevent 32% (95% confidence interval (CI) 24%-41%) of infections. The addition of RTS,S-induced CSP-specific CD4(+) T cells was estimated to increase vaccine efficacy against infection to 40% (95% CI, 34%-48%). This protective efficacy is estimated to result from a 96.1% (95% CI, 93.4%-97.8%) reduction in the liver-to-blood parasite inoculum, indicating that in volunteers who developed P. falciparum infection, a small number of parasites (often the progeny of a single surviving sporozoite) are responsible for breakthrough blood-stage infections.

Background: The efficacy of RTS,S/AS01 as a vaccine for malaria is being tested in a phase 3 clinical trial. Early results show significant, albeit partial, protection against clinical malaria and severe malaria. To ascertain variations in vaccine efficacy according to covariates such as transmission intensity, choice of adjuvant, age at vaccination, and bednet use, we did an individual-participant pooled analysis of phase 2 clinical data., Methods: We analysed data from 11 different sites in Africa, including 4453 participants. We measured heterogeneity in vaccine efficacy by estimating the interactions between covariates and vaccination in pooled multivariable Cox regression and Poisson regression analyses. Endpoints for measurement of vaccine efficacy were infection, clinical malaria, severe malaria, and death. We defined transmission intensity levels according to the estimated local parasite prevalence in children aged 2-10 years (PrP₂₋₁₀), ranging from 5% to 80%. Choice of adjuvant was either AS01 or AS02., Findings: Vaccine efficacy against all episodes of clinical malaria varied by transmission intensity (p=0·001). At low transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 10%) vaccine efficacy was 60% (95% CI 54 to 67), at moderate transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 20%) it was 41% (21 to 57), and at high transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 70%) the efficacy was 4% (-10 to 22). Vaccine efficacy also varied by adjuvant choice (p<0·0001)--eg, at low transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 10%), efficacy varied from 60% (95% CI 54 to 67) for AS01 to 47% (14 to 75) for AS02. Variations in efficacy by age at vaccination were of borderline significance (p=0·038), and bednet use and sex were not significant covariates. Vaccine efficacy (pooled across adjuvant choice and transmission intensity) varied significantly (p<0·0001) according to time since vaccination, from 36% efficacy (95% CI 24 to 45) at time of vaccination to 0% (-38 to 38) after 3 years., Interpretation: Vaccine efficacy against clinical disease was of limited duration and was not detectable 3 years after vaccination. Furthermore, efficacy fell with increasing transmission intensity. Outcomes after vaccination cannot be gauged accurately on the basis of one pooled efficacy figure. However, predictions of public-health outcomes of vaccination will need to take account of variations in efficacy by transmission intensity and by time since vaccination., Funding: Medical Research Council (UK); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Vaccine Modelling Initiative; Wellcome Trust., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Antibodies to the pre-erythrocytic antigens, circumsporozoite protein (CSP), thrombospondin-related adhesive protein (TRAP) and liver-stage antigen 1, have been measured in field studies of semi-immune adults and shown to correlate with protection from Plasmodium falciparum infection. A mathematical model is formulated to estimate the probability of sporozoite infection as a function of antibody titres to multiple pre-erythrocytic antigens. The variation in antibody titres from field data was used to estimate the relationship between the probability of P. falciparum infection per infectious mosquito bite and antibody titre. Using this relationship, we predict the effect of vaccinations that boost baseline CSP or TRAP antibody titres. Assuming the estimated relationship applies to vaccine-induced antibody titres, then single-component CSP or TRAP antibody-mediated pre-erythrocytic vaccines are likely to provide partial protection from infection, with vaccine efficacy of approximately 50 per cent depending on the magnitude of the vaccine-induced boost to antibody titres. It is possible that the addition of a TRAP component to a CSP-based vaccine such as RTS,S would provide an increase in infection-blocking efficacy of approximately 25 per cent should the problem of immunological interference between antigens be overcome.

Background: Phase III trials of the malaria vaccine, RTS, S, are now underway across multiple sites of varying transmission intensity in Africa. Heterogeneity in exposure, vaccine response and waning of efficacy may bias estimates of vaccine efficacy., Methods: Theoretical arguments are used to identify the expected effects of a) heterogeneity in exposure to infectious bites; b) heterogeneity in individual's response to the vaccine; and c) waning efficacy on measures of vaccine efficacy from clinical trials for an infection-blocking vaccine., Results: Heterogeneity in exposure and vaccine response leads to a smaller proportion of trial participants becoming infected than one would expect in a homogeneous setting. This causes estimates of vaccine efficacy from clinical trials to be underestimated if transmission heterogeneity is ignored, and overestimated if heterogeneity in vaccine response is ignored. Waning of vaccine efficacy can bias estimates of vaccine efficacy in both directions., Conclusions: Failure to account for heterogeneities in exposure and response, and waning of efficacy in clinical trials can lead to biased estimates of malaria vaccine efficacy. Appropriate methods to reduce these biases need to be used to ensure accurate interpretation and comparability between trial sites of results from the upcoming Phase III clinical trials of RTS, S.