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Background: Evaluation of local Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission has been investigated previously using the reversible catalytic model based on prevalence of antibody responses to single antigen to estimate seroconversion rates. High correlations were observed between seroconversion rates and entomological inoculation rates (EIR). However, in this model, the effects of malaria control interventions and clinical episodes on serological measurements were not assessed. This study monitors the use of antibody responses to P. falciparum crude extracts for assessing malaria transmission, compares seroconversion rates estimated from longitudinal data to those derived from cross-sectional surveys and investigates the effects of malaria control interventions on these measures in an area of declining malaria transmission. In addition, the validity of this model was evaluated by comparison with the alternative model. Methods: Five cross-sectional surveys were carried out at the end of the wet season in Dielmo, a malaria-endemic Senegalese rural area in 2000, 2002, 2008, 2010 and 2012. Antibodies against schizonts crude extract of a local P. falciparum strain adapted to culture (Pf 07/03) were measured by ELISA. Age-specific seroprevalence model was used both for cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal data (combined data of all surveys). Results: A total of 1504 plasma samples obtained through several years follow-up of 350 subjects was used in this study. Seroconversion rates based on P. falciparum schizonts crude extract were estimated for each cross-sectional survey and were found strongly correlated with EIR. High variability between SCRs from cross-sectional and longitudinal surveys was observed. In longitudinal studies, the alternative catalytic reversible model adjusted better with serological data than the catalytic model. Clinical malaria attacks and malaria control interventions were found to have significant effect on seroconversion. Discussion: The results of the study suggested that crude extract was a good serological tool that could be used to assess the level of malaria exposure in areas where malaria transmission is declining. However, additional parameters such as clinical malaria and malaria control interventions must be taken into account for determining serological measurements for more accuracy in transmission assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the progress towards malaria elimination, the accurate diagnosis of low-density asymptomatic infections is critical. Low-density asymptomatic submicroscopic malaria infections may act as silent reservoirs that maintain low-level residual malaria transmission in the community. Light microscopy, the gold standard in malaria diagnosis lacks the sensitivity to detect low-level parasitaemia. In this study, the presence and prevalence of submicroscopic Plasmodium carriage were investigated to estimate the parasites reservoir among asymptomatic individuals living in low transmission areas in Dielmo and Ndiop, Senegal during the dry season. Methods: A total of 2,037 blood samples were collected during cross-sectional surveys prior the malaria transmission season in July 2013 (N = 612), June 2014 (N = 723) and June 2015 (N = 702) from asymptomatic individuals living in Dielmo and Ndiop, Senegal. Samples were used to determine the prevalence of submicroscopic Plasmodium carriage by real time PCR (qPCR) in comparison to microscopy considered as gold standard. Results: The prevalence of submicroscopic Plasmodium carriage was 3.75% (23/612), 12.44% (90/723) and 6.41% (45/702) in 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively. No Plasmodium carriage was detected by microscopy in 2013 while microscopy-based prevalence of Plasmodium carriage accounted for only 0.27% (2/723) and 0.14% (1/702) in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Plasmodium falciparum accounted for the majority of submicroscopic infections and represented 86.95% (20/23), 81.11% (73/90) and 95.55 (43/45) of infections in 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively. Conclusion: Low-density submicroscopic asymptomatic Plasmodium carriage is common in the study areas during the dry season indicating that traditional measures are insufficient to assess the scale of parasite reservoir when transmission reaches very low level. Control and elimination strategies may wish to consider using molecular methods to identify parasites carriers to guide Mass screening and Treatment strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coordinated scaled-up malaria control interventions have substantially contributed to the dramatic decrease of malaria-related morbidity and mortality in several endemic countries, including Senegal. However, the impacts of a given malaria control intervention on vector and parasite populations, acquired immunity, and disease burden remain very poorly documented largely due to the lack of continuous surveys. This study took advantage of the sera bank established as part of the Dielmo longitudinal project to investigate the dynamics of IgG antibody responses that accompanied the epidemiological changes resulting from malaria control interventions. Schizonts crude extract of a local strain of Plasmodium falciparum (Pfsch07/03) was used in ELISA to measure and compare seroprevalence and magnitude of IgG antibody responses from 2000 to 2012. Results: The prevalence of Pfsch07/03 IgG antibody responses progressively decreased from 97.25% in 2000 to 57.3% in 2012. The prevalence of Pfsch07/03 antibodies categorized between three different age groups (<7, 7-15, and >15 years) revealed increased seroprevalence with age ranging from 47.19 to 62.67 and 89.45%, respectively in (<7, 7-15, and >15 years) old age groups. A marked drop in seroprevalence was observed after 2008 and was significant in the younger (<7 years) and intermediate (7-15 years) age groups, unlike older individuals aged >15 years (p = 1.00). Conclusions: The study revealed a substantial contribution of all malaria control interventions to the decrease of IgG antibodies responses to Pfsch07/03 throughout prevention of human-mosquitos contacts, or reduction of parasite biomass. The present study demonstrates the wider potential of sero-epidemiological analysis in monitoring changes in malaria transmission resulting from a given malaria control intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There exists great disparity in the number of clinical P. falciparum episodes among children of the same age and living in similar conditions. The epidemiological determinants of such disparity are unclear. We used a data-mining approach to explore a nineteen-year longitudinal malaria cohort study dataset from Senegal and identify variables associated with increased risk of malaria episodes. These were then verified using classical statistics and replicated in a second cohort. In addition to age, we identified a novel high-risk group of children in whom the history of P. falciparum clinical episodes greatly increased risk of further episodes. Age and a high number of previous falciparum clinical episodes not only play major roles in explaining the risk of P. falciparum episodes but also are risk factors for different groups of people. Combined, they explain the majority of falciparum clinical attacks. Contrary to what is widely believed, clinical immunity to P. falciparum does not de facto occur following many P. falciparum clinical episodes. There exist a sub-group of children who suffer repeated clinical episodes. In addition to posing an important challenge for population stratification during clinical trials, this sub-group disproportionally contributes to the disease burden and may necessitate specific prevention and control measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex, high-dimensional data sets pose significant analytical challenges in the post-genomic era. Such data sets are not exclusive to genetic analyses and are also pertinent to epidemiology. There has been considerable effort to develop hypothesis-free data mining and machine learning methodologies. However, current methodologies lack exhaustivity and general applicability. Here we use a novel non-parametric, non-euclidean data mining tool, HyperCube®, to explore exhaustively a complex epidemiological malaria data set by searching for over density of events in m-dimensional space. Hotspots of over density correspond to strings of variables, rules, that determine, in this case, the occurrence of Plasmodium falciparum clinical malaria episodes. The data set contained 46,837 outcome events from 1,653 individuals and 34 explanatory variables. The best predictive rule contained 1,689 events from 148 individuals and was defined as: individuals present during 1992-2003, aged 1-5 years old, having hemoglobin AA, and having had previous Plasmodium malariae malaria parasite infection ≤10 times. These individuals had 3.71 times more P. falciparum clinical malaria episodes than the general population. We validated the rule in two different cohorts. We compared and contrasted the HyperCube® rule with the rules using variables identified by both traditional statistical methods and non-parametric regression tree methods. In addition, we tried all possible sub-stratified quantitative variables. No other model with equal or greater representativity gave a higher Relative Risk. Although three of the four variables in the rule were intuitive, the effect of number of P. malariae episodes was not. HyperCube® efficiently sub-stratified quantitative variables to optimize the rule and was able to identify interactions among the variables, tasks not easy to perform using standard data mining methods. Search of local over density in m-dimensional space, explained by easily interpretable rules, is thus seemingly ideal for generating hypotheses for large datasets to unravel the complexity inherent in biological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Background: A better understanding of the effect of malaria control interventions on vector and parasite populations, acquired immunity, and burden of the disease is needed to guide strategies to eliminate malaria from highly endemic areas. We monitored and analysed the changes in malaria epidemiology in a village community in Senegal, west Africa, over 22 years. Methods: Between 1990 and 2012, we did a prospective longitudinal study of the inhabitants of Dielmo, Senegal, to identify all episodes of fever and investigate the relation between malaria host, vector, and parasite. Our study included daily medical surveillance with systematic parasite detection in individuals with fever. We measured parasite prevalence four times a year with cross-sectional surveys. We monitored malaria transmission monthly with night collection of mosquitoes. Malaria treatment changed over the years, from quinine (1990–94), to chloroquine (1995–2003), amodiaquine plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (2003–06), and finally artesunate plus amodiaquine (2006–12). Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) were introduced in 2008. Findings: We monitored 776 villagers aged 0–101 years for 2 378 150 person-days of follow-up. Entomological inoculation rate ranged from 142·5 infected bites per person per year in 1990 to 482·6 in 2000, and 7·6 in 2012. Parasite prevalence in children declined from 87% in 1990 to 0·3 % in 2012. In adults, it declined from 58% to 0·3%. We recorded 23 546 fever episodes during the study, including 8243 clinical attacks caused by Plasmodium falciparum, 290 by Plasmodium malariae, and 219 by Plasmodium ovale. Three deaths were directly attributable to malaria, and two to severe adverse events of antimalarial drugs. The incidence of malaria attacks ranged from 1·50 attacks per person-year in 1990 to 2·63 in 2000, and to only 0·046 in 2012. The greatest changes were associated with the replacement of chloroquine and the introduction of ITNs. Interpretation: Malaria control policies combining prompt treatment of clinical attacks and deployment of ITNs can nearly eliminate parasite carriage and greatly reduce the burden of malaria in populations exposed to intense perennial malaria transmission. The choice of drugs seems crucial. Rapid decline of clinical immunity allows rapid detection and treatment of novel infections and thus has a key role in sustaining effectiveness of combining artemisinin-based combination therapy and ITNs despite increasing pyrethroid resistance. Funding: Pasteur Institutes of Dakar and Paris, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, and French Ministry of Cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]