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Water transportation plays an important role in the comprehensive transportation system and regional logistics. The number of vessel accidents is an important indicator for evaluating vessel traffic safety and the efficiency of the maritime management strategy. The aim of this work is to provide an efficient way to predict the number of vessel accidents in China. Firstly, to weaken the randomness of the vessel accident number time series, the gray processing operation is adopted to generate a new sequence with exponential and approximate exponential rules. In addition, an extended least-squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model is applied in the forecasting of the new sequence, in which the parameters of the LSSVM are optimized by an improved quantum-behaved particle swarm (IQPSO). The proposed method is applied in the forecasting of the number of vessel accidents in China, and the efficiency is shown by comparing the prediction results with GM (1, 1), PSO-LSSVM, and QPSO-LSSVM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a generalized F distribution model with random parameters to estimate the ship property damage cost in maritime traffic accidents with 10 years’ shipping accident data in the Fujian waters. Model results show that sinking and capsizing can incur the largest property damage cost, followed by collisions, contact, grounding and fire/explosion. There is a smaller ship property damage cost when the ship is moored or docked. The poor visibility has the least impact on the increment of ship property damage cost. Results reveal that the bigger property damage cost is associated with maritime accidents occurring in the Straits/sea areas and under the strong wind/wave condition and nighttime periods. It is also found that the lookout failure exhibits a bigger effect than the operation error. These results are helpful for policy makers to make efficient strategies for reducing property damage cost in maritime accidents. The developed model is useful for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study aims to develop a maximum likelihood regression tree-based (MLRT) ZINB (zero-inflated negative binomial) model to predict shipping accident mortality, and also to examine the factors which affect the loss of human life in shipping accidents. Based upon 23,029 sets of shipping accidents observations collected from 2001 and 2011 in global water areas, a tree comprising 7 terminal nodes is built, each of which is assigned by a separate ZINB model. Model results indicate that the large number of shipping accident casualties are closely related to collision, fire/explosion, sinking, contact, grounding, operating time, capsizing, docking condition, hull/machinery damage, and miscellaneous causes. In addition, it is found that there is a larger casualty count for the accidents occurring under adverse weather conditions or far away from coastal/port areas. In addition, sinking is recognized as the accident type which causes the largest number of casualties. This study can help the decision makers to propose effective strategies to reduce shipping accident casualties. Highlights • Develop a maximum likelihood regression tree-based ZINB model. • The large number of casualties relates to collision operating time, capsizing and docking condition. • Sinking is the accident type causing the largest number of casualties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trend towards global warming and the rapid decline in the extent of summer Arctic sea ice over recent years has increased the feasibility of international Arctic shipping. In this study we propose a seasonal NSR (North Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping service linking Shanghai and Rotterdam, using the Northern Sea Route during the economical navigable window but using the traditional Suez Canal Route at other times. Different from the previous literatures, this paper dynamically considers the sea ice extent in the model, which is more reasonable for the assessment of Arctic container shipping, because fuel consumption is highly related to ship speed, while ship speed is determined by the relative distances of ice-covered and ice-free route stages. A new approach is developed to predict the time points at which the ship enters and exits the ice-covered stage, given that both the ship position and the extent of sea ice are constantly changing. The results show that the NSR/SCR-combined Arctic container service can be more economical than the SCR, given lower NSR tariffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression model to evaluate the factors influencing the loss of human life in shipping accidents using ten years' ship accident data in the South China Sea. The ZINB regression model results show that the expected loss of human life is higher for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, hull damage, machinery damage/failure and capsizing accidents occurring in adverse weather conditions during night periods. Sinking can cause the highest loss of life compared to all other accident types. There are fewer fatalities and missing people when the ship involved in an accident is moored or docked. The results also reveal that the loss of human life is associated with shipping accidents occurring far away from the coastal area/harbour/ports. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to reduce shipping accident casualties in the South China Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years’ worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to estimate Vessel Collision Frequency in the Singapore Strait. This frequency is obtained as the product of the number of Vessel Conflicts and the causation probability using the real-time vessel movement data from the Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit (Lloyd's MIU) database. The results show that the container carriers have the highest Vessel Collision Frequency while Roll-On Roll-Off (RORO) and passenger ships have the lowest frequency. Tankers cause the highest head-on collision frequency. In the Singapore Strait, the most risky overtaking area is between longitudes 103°48′E and 104°12′E. The most risky head-on area is between longitudes 103°50′E and 104°00′E while the majority of crossing collisions occur between longitudes 103°50′E and 104°12′E. The Vessel Collision Frequency is found to be 1·75 per year in the traffic lanes. Currently, westbound traffic in the Strait is more risky than eastbound traffic (the number of westbound collisions in July was 0·0991 while the number of eastbound collisions was 0·0470). Furthermore, the estimated Vessel Collision Frequency during the day is less than that at night. The results of this paper could be beneficial for the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore to further enhance the navigational safety strategies implemented in the Singapore Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

• We conducted a quantitative analysis of intelligent SCA technology over the past 20 years using bibliometric methods and data portrait techniques and traced earlier literature for a systematic review. • We identified the hotspots and research frontiers of intelligent ship collision avoidance in maritime transportation. • We discussed the contributions, innovations, and trends of future research in intelligent ship collision avoidance. With the increasing promotion of digital technology, safety issues faced by rush ships in the maritime industry have once again received attention. Ship collision avoidance (SCA) is not only a hot topic in the shipping industry but also an eye-catching issue in the development of intelligent ships. This paper provides a bibliometric and systematic overview of the literature on SCA to assist researchers in understanding the frontiers and recent trends of SCA. Based on the bibliographic portrait, a classification and grading study was conducted on the literature to provide a systematic review of it. A screening process was conducted on 851 relevant articles related to SCA and published in 2004–2023 in the Web of Science (WoS) database, and 526 highly relevant and high-quality papers were selected. Then, CiteSpace, VOSviewer software, and data visualization techniques were used to conduct a bibliographic portrait analysis on the selected papers. The evidence from these systematic literature reviews revealed the close collaboration relationships among researchers, research institutions, and countries or regions in the field of SCA studying shortly. Furthermore, the frontiers of the research on SCA were focused on three aspects, i.e. research subjects, technological methods, and novel algorithms in intelligent SCA. COLREG is a problem that must be considered in intelligent SCA. The future trends in intelligent SCA were explored and SCA technology was introduced from artificial intelligence (AI) so as to meet the safety requirement of maritime autonomous surface ships. AI algorithms such as machine learning and deep learning are key technologies for SCA. This research provides a theoretical basis and implementation directions of the research on SCA. The hybrid encounters between traditional ships and intelligent ships, as well as multi-ship encounters in narrow waterways, will be the focal points of attention in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]