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Bridge maintenance and replacement optimization methods use deterioration models to predict the future condition of bridge components. The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for bridge maintenance optimization using a deterioration model that takes into account aspects of the history of the bridge condition and maintenance, while allowing the use of efficient optimization techniques. Markovian models are widely used to represent bridge component deterioration. In existing Markovian models, the state is the bridge component condition, and the history of the condition is not taken into account, which is seen as a limitation. This paper describes a method to formulate a realistic history-dependent model of bridge deck deterioration as a Markov chain, while retaining aspects of the history of deterioration and maintenance as part of the model. This model is then used to formulate and solve a reliability-based bridge maintenance optimization problem as a Markov decision process. A parametric study is conducted to compare the policies obtained in this research with policies derived using a simpler Markovian model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The network-level infrastructure management problem involves selecting and scheduling maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R) activities on networks of infrastructure facilities so as to maintain the level of service provided by the network in a cost-effective manner. This problem is frequently formulated as a Markov decision problem (MDP) solved via linear programming (LP). The conditions of facilities are represented by elements of discrete condition rating sets, and transition probabilities are employed to describe deterioration processes. Epistemic and parametric uncertainties not considered within the standard MDP/LP framework are associated with the transition probabilities used in infrastructure management optimization routines. This paper contrasts the expected costs incurred when model uncertainty is ignored with those incurred when this uncertainty is explicitly considered using robust optimization. A case study involving a network-level pavement management MDP/LP problem demonstrates how explicitly considering uncertainty may limit worst-case MR&R expenditures. The methods and results can also be used to identify the costs of uncertainty in transition probability matrices used in infrastructure management systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a solution approach for the problem of optimising the frequency and intensity of pavement resurfacing, under steady-state conditions. If the pavement deterioration and improvement models are deterministic and follow the Markov property, it is possible to develop a simple but exact solution method. This method removes the need to solve the problem as an optimal control problem, which had been the focus of previous research in this area. The key to our approach is the realisation that, at optimality, the system enters the steady state at the time of the first resurfacing. The optimal resurfacing strategy is to define a minimum serviceability level (or maximum roughness level), and whenever the pavement deteriorates to that level, to resurface with a fixed intensity. The optimal strategy does not depend on the initial condition of the pavement, as long as the initial condition is better than the condition that triggers resurfacing. This observation allows us to use a simple solution method. We apply this solution procedure to a case study, using data obtained from the literature. The results indicate that the discounted lifetime cost is not very sensitive to cycle time. What matters most is the best achievable roughness level. The minimum serviceability level strategy is robust in that when there is uncertainty in the deterioration process, the optimal condition that triggers resurfacing is not significantly changed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

State-of-the-art infrastructure management systems use Markov decision processes (MDPs) as a methodology for maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) decision making. The underlying assumption in this methodology is that inspections are performed at predetermined and fixed time intervals and that they reveal the true condition state of the facility, with no measurement error. As a result, after an inspection, the decision maker can apply the activity prescribed by the optimal policy for that condition state of the facility. In previous research, the second author has applied a methodology for M&R activity selection that accounts for the presence of both forecasting and measurement uncertainty. This methodology is the latent Markov decision process (LMDP), an extension of the traditional MDP that relaxes the assumptions of error-free annual facility inspections. In this article we extend this methodology to include network-level constraints. This can be achieved by extending the LMDP model to the network-level problem through the use of randomized policies. We present both finite-horizon (transient) and infinite-horizon (steady-state)formulations of the network-level LMDP. A case study application demonstrates the expected savings in life-cycle costs that result from increasing the measurement accuracy used in facility inspections and from optimal scheduling of inspections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Markovian transition probabilities have been used extensively in the field of infrastructure management, to provide forecasts of facility conditions. However, existing approaches used to estimate these transition probabilities from inspection data are mostly ad hoc and suffer from several statistical limitations. In this paper, econometric methods for the estimation of infrastructure deterioration models and associated transition probabilities from inspection data are presented. The first method is based on the Poisson regression model and follows directly from the Markovian behavior of infrastructure deterioration. The negative binomial regression, a generalization of the Poisson model that relaxes the assumption of equality of mean and variance, is also presented. An empirical case study, using a bridge inspection data set from Indiana, demonstrates the capabilities of the two methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]