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Recycling waste plastics is one of the important ways to save petroleum resources and reduce carbon emissions. However, the current recycling rate of waste plastics is still low. Material flow analysis can help determine the flow of waste plastics, and life cycle assessment (LCA) can be used to quantify environmental impacts. The present study integrates these two methods into the model construction of the residents' waste plastics recycling decision-support system. This model construction is followed by sensitivity analysis of the relevant parameters affecting the performance of the waste plastics recycling system. Finally, the present study forecasts the recycling system's performance and environmental impacts by setting four optimization scenarios based on sensitivity analysis. The results show that in 2019, a total of 8.39 million tons of high-end applications were recovered, carbon emissions during the recycling process were 34.9 million tons, and dioxin emissions were 316.11 g TEQ, with a total emission reduction of 24.47 million tons of CO2 compared to the original production. Sensitivity analysis shows that the selection rate of waste plastic recycling, the re-sorting rate of waste plastic recycling plant, and the classification recovery rate of mixed waste had relatively high effects on the recovery performance and environmental benefits of the recycling system. In the scenario of comprehensive improvement, in 2035, the recycling volume of high-end applications will rise to 33.96 million tons, the carbon emissions will rise to 64.73 million tons, the dioxin emissions will drop to 165.98 g TEQ, and the carbon emission reduction will rise to 99.06 million tons. This study has a certain guiding role for policy-makers to formulate industry norms and related policies for waste plastic recycling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Dynamic material flow and life cycle assessment for recovery system is constructed. • Economic benefit and CO 2 emission of recovery system are analyzed quantitatively. • The sensitivity analysis of three main factors affecting the system is carried out. • The peak volume will reach to 16 million by using dynamic material flow analysis. • The recovery benefits are predicted under scenarios of low, mid and high speed. China's automobile industry is developing rapidly, but the recycling rate of end-of-life vehicles has been low. In 2018, the recovery rate of end-of-life passenger vehicles was less than 18% of the scrapped amount. Dynamic material flow analysis can predict the amount of end-of-life passenger cars in China in the future, and analyze the flow of materials in recycling system. Life cycle assessment can be used to quantify greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this paper integrates these two methods into the model construction of recycling decision system. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis of the important factors affecting the efficiency of the recovery system is carried out. Finally, the main recovery indexes of the system are predicted under three scenarios: low-speed, medium speed and high-speed development, which are set based on scrap volume, standard recovery rate, proportion of assembly into remanufacturing and carbon tax price. The research results show that in 2018, 656.9 kg/vehicle of iron, 150.2 kg/vehicle of aluminum and 7.9 kg/vehicle of copper are recovered from end-of-life passenger car in China, and the carbon emission during the recovery process is 651.1 kg of CO 2 eq/vehicle, with a total emission reduction of 3816.1 kgCO 2 eq/vehicle compared with the original production, and the economic benefit is about 5055.5 yuan/vehicle. The scenario prediction results show that by 2050, from the low-speed development scenario to the high-speed development scenario, the total amount of iron, aluminum and copper recovered rise from 3.96 million tons, 915 thousand tons and 46 thousand tons to 697 thousand tons, 1.61 million tons and 80 thousand tons respectively throughout the year. The carbon emission in the recovery process rise from 4.98 thousand tons to 9.32 million tons. Compared with the original production, the carbon emission reduction increases from 2.21 million tons to 38.3 million tons, the economic benefit increases from 58.9 billion yuan to 118.8 billion yuan, and the comprehensive benefit increases from 57 billion yuan to 111.6 billion yuan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's paper industry development is rapid, but the recycling rate of China's waste paper has been low all the time. Meanwhile, material flow analysis can help determine the flow of waste paper, and life cycle assessment (LCA) is the methodological framework for quantifying greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, present study integrates these two methods into the model construction of China's waste paper recycling decision system. Present study constructs a benchmark model of China's waste paper recycling decision system in 2017, focusing on the impact of nonstandard waste paper recycling on the economic and environmental benefits of China's domestic waste paper recycling system. This model construction is followed by sensitivity analysis of the relevant parameters affecting the efficiency of the waste paper recycling system. Finally, present study forecasts the system's economic benefits and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the context of integrating and regulating nonstandard recycling vendors. The results show that the economic benefit of China's waste paper recycling in 2017 is approximately 458.3 yuan/t and that the GHG emissions are 901.1 kgCO 2 eq. The standard recovery rate and nonstandard recovery acceptance rate will both have a significant impact on the system's economic benefits and improve the GHG emissions structure. In the context of integrating nonstandard recycling enterprises and individual recycling vendors, the economic benefits will rise to 3312.5 yuan/t in 2030, while GHG emissions will rise to 942.9 kgCO 2 eq. Present study can play a certain guiding role for policy makers in formulating waste paper recycling industry specifications and formulating relevant policies. • Present study constructs the life cycle framework of Chinese paper and paperboard by the combination of MFA and LCA. • Quantitative analysis of the economic benefits and GHG emissions generated by China's waste paper recycling system. • Sensitivity analysis on the main parameters of the economic and environmental benefits of the waste paper recycling system. • Benefits of China's waste paper recycling from 2018 to 2030 are evaluated by integrating nostandard and standard recycling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]