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The article presents a study which focuses on creating a simulation of the extra-tropical climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) using a combined atmosphere-ocean model. It relates that the said model combines the idealized quasi-geographic model of SH's wintertime atmospheric circulation with a general ocean circulation model. It notes that the model's development is motivated by the need to determine the role of atmosphere-ocean interaction in shaping climate variability.

This paper presents a methodology to calculate lidar ratios for distinct cirrus clouds that has been developed and implemented for a site located in the Southern Hemisphere. The cirrus cloud lidar data processing aims to consider a large cloud variability and cirrus cloud monitoring through a robust retrieval process. Among cirrus features estimates for complex scenes that lidar systems can provide, we highlight cloud geometrical information and extinctionto- backscatter ratio (known as lidar ratio or LR). In general, direct information on cirrus cloud microphysics is difficult to derive because LR depends on the presence of ice crystals and their properties such as shape, size, composition and orientation of particles. An iterative process to derive a stable LR value has been proposed. One of the keys is to restrict the analysis to conditions allowing accurate multilayer events. This method uses nonparametric statistical approaches to identify stationary periods according to cloud features and variability. Measurements performed in the region of the metropolitan city of São Paulo (MSP) have been used to implement and test the methodology developed for cirrus cloud characterization. Good results are represented by examining specific cases with multilayer cirrus cloud occurrence. In addition to the geometrical parameters obtained, cirrus LR values were calculated for a single day ranging from 19±01 sr to 74±13 sr for 2 observed layers. This large difference in LR can indicate a mixture of ice crystal particles with different sizes and shapes in both layers of the cirrus clouds. Trajectory analyses indicate that both of these cloud layers can be associated with different air mass and should be considered as 2 distinct clouds in climatology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropospheric delay is one of the main sources of measurement error in global navigation satellite systems. It is usually compensated by using an empirical correction model. In this paper, temporal and spatial variations of the global zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) are further analyzed by ZTD time series from global International GNSS Service stations and annual ZTDs derived from global National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data, respectively. A new ZTD correction model, named IGGtrop, is developed based on the characteristics of ZTD. Experimental results show that this new 3D-grid-based model that accommodates longitudinal as well as latitudinal variations of ZTD performs better than latitude-only based models (such as UNB3, EGNOS, and UNB3m). The global average bias and RMS for IGGtrop are about −0.8 cm and 4.0 cm, respectively. Bias values for UNB3, EGNOS, and UNB3m are 2.0, 2.0, and 0.7 cm, respectively, and respective RMS values 5.4, 5.4, and 5.0 cm. IGGtrop shows much more consistent prediction errors for different areas than EGNOS and UNB3m. In China, the performance of IGGtrop (bias values from −2.0 to 0.4 cm and RMS from 2.1 to 6.4 cm) is clearly superior to those of EGNOS and UNB3m. It is also demonstrated that IGGtrop biases vary little with height, and its RMS values tend to decrease with increasing height. In addition, IGGtrop generally estimates ZTD with greater accuracy than EGNOS and UNB3m in the Southern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents results from the Storm-Time Ionospheric Correction Model (STORM) validation for selected Northern and Southern Hemisphere middle latitude locations. The created database incorporated 65 strong-to-severe geomagnetic storms, which occurred within the period 1995–2007. This validation included data from some ionospheric stations (e.g., Pruhonice, El Arenosillo) that were not considered in the development or previous validations of the model. Hourly values of the F2 layer critical frequency, foF2, measured for 5–7days during the main and recovery phases of each selected storm were compared with the predicted IRI 2007 foF2 with the STORM model option activated. To perform a detailed comparison between observed values, medians and predicted foF2 values the correlation coefficient, the root-mean-square error (RMSE), and the percentage improvement were calculated. Results of the comparative analysis show that the STORM model captures more effectively the negative phases of the summer ionospheric storms, while electron density enhancement during winter storms and the changeover of the different storm phases is reproduced with less accuracy. The STORM model corrections are less efficient for lower-middle latitudes and severe geomagnetic storms. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Quantitative descriptions of Circumpolar Deep Water upwelling and evolution into a lighter mode and heavier bottom waters in the Southern Ocean are still not well constrained. Here, data from two occupations of eight hydrographic sections are combined and used in a box inverse model to estimate isopycnal and diapycnal transports in the Southern Ocean. A mixed layer box allows diapycnal transports in the surface mixed layer to be estimated separately. Current velocity at 1000 dbar was constrained by the mean velocity field estimated from subsurface float drift data. The estimated isopycnal transports are largely consistent with past estimates and with outputs of three ocean general circulation models. The estimated subduction and upwelling at the base of the Southern Ocean mixed layer show that Upper Circumpolar Deep Water upwells [16 ± 15 and 17 ± 21 Sv (where 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) by different inversion methods] and evolves into heavier Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (5 ± 13 and 6 ± 18 Sv) and Bottom Water (8 ± 9 and 8 ± 13 Sv) or lighter Mode and Intermediate Waters (9 ± 18 and 13 ± 24 Sv). Meridional transport in the surface mixed layer is due to northward Ekman transport and mostly southward eddy transport. In seasonal ice-covered areas near Antarctica, a significant (14 ± 14 Sv) southward transport was found. The southward eddy transport is largest north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and decreases poleward because of the poleward decrease in the eddy diffusivity. The interior diapycnal transports, which can be either upward (gaining buoyancy) or downward (gaining density), are comparable in magnitude to the horizontal diapycnal transports within the surface mixed layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The domain-filling, forward trajectory calculation model developed by Schoeberl and Dessler (2011) is extended to the 1979-2010 period. We compare results from NASA's MERRA, NCEP's CFSR, and ECMWF's ERAi reanalyses with HALOE, MLS, and balloon observations. The CFSR based simulation produces a wetter stratosphere than MERRA, and ERAi produces a drier stratosphere than MERRA. We find that ERAi 100 hPa temperatures are cold biased compared to Singapore sondes and MERRA, which explains the ERAi result, and the CFSR grid does not resolve the cold point tropopause, which explains its relatively higher water vapor concentration. The pattern of dehydration locations is also different among the three reanalyses. ERAi dehydration pattern stretches across the Pacific while CFSR and MERRA concentrate dehydration activity in the West Pacific. CSFR and ERAi also show less dehydration activity in the West Pacific Southern Hemisphere than MERRA. The trajectory models' lower northern high latitude stratosphere tends to be dry because too little methane-derived water descends from the middle stratosphere. Using the MLS tropical tape recorder signal, we find that MERRA vertical ascent is 15% too weak while ERAi is 30% too strong. The trajectory model reproduces the observed reduction in the amplitude of the 100-hPa annual cycle in zonal mean water vapor as it propagates to middle latitudes. Finally, consistent with the observations, the models show less than 0.2 ppmdecade-1 trend in water vapor both at mid-latitudes and in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role played by enhanced upper-tropospheric baroclinicity in the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios is investigated. Major differences between the twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations are first detailed using two coupled climate model outputs. There is a poleward shift of the eddy-driven jets, an increase in intensity and poleward shift of the storm tracks, a strengthening of the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity, and an increase in the eddy length scale. These properties are more obvious in the Southern Hemisphere. A strengthening of the poleward eddy momentum fluxes and a relative decrease in frequency of cyclonic wave breaking compared to anticyclonic wave breaking events is also observed. Then, baroclinic instability in the three-level quasigeostrophic model is studied analytically and offers a simple explanation for the increased eddy spatial scale. It is shown that if the potential vorticity gradient changes its sign below the midlevel (i.e., if the critical level is located in the lower troposphere as in the real atmosphere), long and short wavelengths become respectively more and less unstable when the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity is increased. Finally, a simple dry atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is used to confirm the key role played by the upper-level baroclinicity by employing a normal-mode approach and long-term simulations forced by a temperature relaxation. The eddy length scale is shown to largely determine the nature of the breaking: long (short) wavelengths break more anticyclonically (cyclonically). When the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity is reinforced, long wavelengths become more unstable, break more strongly anticyclonically, and push the jet more poleward. Short wavelengths being less unstable, they are less efficient in pushing the jet equatorward. This provides an interpretation for the increased poleward eddy momentum fluxes and thus the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real-data experiments with an ensemble data assimilation system using the NCEP Global Forecast System model were performed and compared with the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). All observations in the operational data stream were assimilated for the period 1 January–10 February 2004, except satellite radiances. Because of computational resource limitations, the comparison was done at lower resolution (triangular truncation at wavenumber 62 with 28 levels) than the GDAS real-time NCEP operational runs (triangular truncation at wavenumber 254 with 64 levels). The ensemble data assimilation system outperformed the reduced-resolution version of the NCEP three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVAR), with the biggest improvement in data-sparse regions. Ensemble data assimilation analyses yielded a 24-h improvement in forecast skill in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics relative to the NCEP 3DVAR system (the 48-h forecast from the ensemble data assimilation system was as accurate as the 24-h forecast from the 3DVAR system). Improvements in the data-rich Northern Hemisphere, while still statistically significant, were more modest. It remains to be seen whether the improvements seen in the Southern Hemisphere will be retained when satellite radiances are assimilated. Three different parameterizations of background errors unaccounted for in the data assimilation system (including model error) were tested. Adding scaled random differences between adjacent 6-hourly analyses from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis to each ensemble member (additive inflation) performed slightly better than the other two methods (multiplicative inflation and relaxation-to-prior). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accuracy and computational efficiency of a parallel computer implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation scheme on the model component of the 2004 version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is investigated. Numerical experiments are carried out at model resolution T62L28. All atmospheric observations that were operationally assimilated by NCEP in 2004, except for satellite radiances, are assimilated with the LETKF. The accuracy of the LETKF analyses is evaluated by comparing it to that of the Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI), which was the operational global data assimilation scheme of NCEP in 2004. For the selected set of observations, the LETKF analyses are more accurate than the SSI analyses in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and are comparably accurate in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and in the Tropics. The computational wall-clock times achieved on a Beowulf cluster of 3.6 GHz Xeon processors make our implementation of the LETKF on the NCEP GFS a widely applicable analysis-forecast system, especially for research purposes. For instance, the generation of four daily analyses at the resolution of the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis (T62L28) for a full season (90 d), using 40 processors, takes less than 4 d of wall-clock time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]