Search

Abstract: We present a model for the diffusion of management fads and other technologies which lack clear objective evidence about their merits. The choices made by non-Bayesian adopters reflect both their own evaluations and the social influence of their peers. We show, both analytically and computationally, that the dynamics lead to outcomes that appear to be deterministic in spite of being governed by a stochastic process. In other words, when the objective evidence about a technology is weak, the evolution of this process quickly settles down to a fraction of adopters that is not predetermined. When the objective evidence is strong, the proportion of adopters is determined by the quality of the evidence and the adopters’ competence. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Presents research which examined simulations of heterogeneous highway traffic demonstrating that cooperative, coherent states can arise from competitive interactions between vehicles. Value of studying highway traffic patterns; Effects of an increase in the density of vehicles; Safety of this state; When the coherent state disappears; Effect observed in real Dutch traffic data.