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Health-care expenditure regressions are used in a wide variety of economic analyses including risk adjustment and program and treatment evaluations. Recent articles demonstrated that generalized gamma models (GGMs) and extended estimating equations (EEE) models provide flexible approaches to deal with a variety of data problems encountered in expenditure estimation. To date there have been few empirical applications of these models to expenditures. We use data from the US Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to compare the bias, predictive accuracy, and marginal effects of GGM and EEE models with other commonly used regression models in a cross-validation study design. Health-care expenditure distributions vary in the degree of heteroskedasticity, skewness, and kurtosis by type of service and population. To examine the ability of estimators to address a range of data problems, we estimate models of total health expenditures and prescription drug expenditures for two populations, the elderly and privately insured adults. Our findings illustrate the need for researchers to examine their assumptions about link functions: the appropriate link function varies across our four distributions. The EEE model, which has a flexible link function, is a robust estimator that performs as well, or better, than the other models in each distribution.

We examine trends in outpatient prescription drug spending by the Medicare civilian, noninstitutionalized population in 1997 and 2001 using nationally representative data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We find that the 72 percent increase in drug spending over this period, in excess of price inflation for all goods and services, is primarily attributable to increases in the number of prescriptions per drug user and in the price per prescription. We also find, however, that an increase in the number of users is the primary reason for growth in a number of the fastest-growing subclasses of drugs.

Specialty drugs are expensive, but spending on specialty drugs is difficult to measure because of proprietary rebate payments by manufacturers to insurers, pharmacy benefit managers, and state Medicaid agencies. Our study extends recent research that documented growing use of and spending on specialty drugs by incorporating manufacturer rebates for both public and private payers. Although specialty drugs make up a small portion of retail prescriptions filled, we found that they accounted for 37.7 percent of retail and mail-order prescription spending net of rebates in 2016-17. From 2010-11 to 2016-17, spending net of rebates tripled for Medicare Part D beneficiaries and more than doubled for people with private insurance. Medicaid spending net of rebates rose more slowly. These results can help inform decision makers as they strive to balance the costs and benefits of innovative drugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine gender differences in use and expenditures for prescription drugs among Medicare and privately insured older adults aged 65 and over, using data on a nationally representative sample of prescription drug purchases collected for the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component. Overall, women spent about $1,178 for drugs, about 17% more than the $1,009 in average expenditures by men. Older women constituted 50.7% of the population and had average annual aggregate expenditures for prescribed medicines of $6.93 billion compared to $5.77 billion for men. Women were more likely than men to use drugs from a number of therapeutic classes-analgesics, hormones and psychotherapeutic agents-and therapeutic subclasses-thyroid drugs, COX-2 inhibitors and anti-depressants. Women also had higher average prescriptions per user for a number of therapeutic classes-hormones, psychotherapeutic agents and analgesics-and therapeutic subclasses-anti-diabetic drugs and beta blockers. Prescribed medications are, arguably, the most important healthcare technology in preventing illness, disability, and death in older adults. It is critical that older women and men have proper access to prescribed medicines. Given the financial vulnerability of this priority population, particularly women, the expanded drug coverage available under the Medicare Modernization Act is of particular relevance in meeting this goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]