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Background In older adults, the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) resembles that of influenza and may even be considered worse due to the lack of preventive interventions. This study was performed to identify the available literature on RSV infection in older adults, and to provide updated exploratory results of the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical RSV vaccine in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Methods A literature search was performed in Medline and EMBASE on 11 November 2019, which served as input for a static decision-tree model that was used to estimate the EJP, for an RSV vaccine applying different willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. WTP thresholds applied were €20 000 and €50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the Netherlands, and £20 000 and £30 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the United Kingdom. Analyses were—in line with country-specific guidelines—conducted from a societal perspective for the Netherlands and a third-party payer perspective for the United Kingdom. The robustness of the cost-effectiveness results was tested in sensitivity analysis. Results After screening the literature, 3 studies for the Netherlands and 6 for the United Kingdom remained to populate the country-specific models. In the base case analysis for the Netherlands (mean RSV incidence, 3.32%), justifiable vaccine prices of €16.38 and €50.03 were found, based on applying the lower and higher WTP thresholds, respectively. Similarly, for the United Kingdom (mean incidence, 7.13%), vaccine prices of £72.29 and £109.74 were found, respectively. Conclusion RSV vaccination may well be cost-effective in both the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, depending on the exact RSV incidence, vaccine effectiveness and price. However, sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust based on varying the different parameter estimates and assumptions. With RSV vaccines reaching the final stages of development, a strong need exists for cost-effectiveness studies to understand economically justifiable pricing of the vaccine.

BackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in older adults is recognised as an important health issue. We aimed to assess the community burden of RSV in Europe in older adults aged ≥60 years.MethodsThis international, prospective, observational cohort study is part of work by the REspiratory Syncytial virus Consortium in EUrope (RESCEU). Participants were recruited through general practitioners' (GPs) offices before two independent RSV seasons. Participants reported weekly about symptoms of acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) during one RSV season. ARTI patients were tested for RSV during home visits and completed a daily symptom diary. RSV illness included PCR-confirmed ARTI and those showing seroconversion over the season. RSV ARTI was based on PCR alone (ClinicalTrials.gov,NCT03621930).ResultsWe recruited 1040 participants (527 in season 2017–2018 and 513 in season 2018–2019) with a median age of 75 years (range 60–100 years). Of these, 1023 (99%) lived independently at home at baseline. RSV illness incidence was 22 out of 527 (4.2%) and 37 out of 513 (7.2%) in the respective seasons. RSV illness did not affect frailty or cardiopulmonary status during the course of the study. No patients were hospitalised or died from RSV illness. In the 36 patients with PCR confirmed RSV ARTI, symptom duration averaged 19 days, while a doctor's visit took place in 11 out of 36 cases (31%). RSV ARTI could not be differentiated clinically from all other ARTIs based on symptoms.ConclusionThis European study showed that RSV is prevalent in community-dwelling older adults and rarely causes severe disease. This suggests that watchful waiting, using a continuity of care approach to identify those who do need more intensive care, is often justified when RSV is suspected in family practice.

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection in young children globally, but little is known about within-host RSV diversity. Here, we characterised within-host RSV populations using deep-sequencing data from 319 nasopharyngeal swabs collected during 2017–2020. RSV-B had lower consensus diversity than RSV-A at the population level, while exhibiting greater within-host diversity. Two RSV-B consensus sequences had an amino acid alteration (K68N) in the fusion (F) protein, which has been associated with reduced susceptibility to nirsevimab (MEDI8897), a novel RSV monoclonal antibody under development. In addition, several minor variants were identified in the antigenic sites of the F protein, one of which may confer resistance to palivizumab, the only licensed RSV monoclonal antibody. The differences in within-host virus populations emphasise the importance of monitoring for vaccine efficacy and may help to explain the different prevalences of monoclonal antibody-escape mutants between the two subgroups., Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common infection in children and older adults but little is known about within-host viral population diversity. Here, the authors perform deep sequencing and find that RSV subgroup B exhibited more diversity than subgroup A, with implications for development of therapeutics and vaccines.

Background and Objective Influenza-like illness (ILI) leads to a substantial disease burden every winter in Europe; however, oseltamivir is not frequently prescribed to ILI patients in the primary-care setting. An open-label, multi-country, multi-season, randomised controlled trial investigated the effectiveness of oseltamivir for treating ILI in 15 European countries. We aimed to evaluate whether patients presenting with ILI in primary care and being managed with the addition of oseltamivir to usual care had lower average direct and indirect costs compared to patients with usual care alone. Methods Resource use data were extracted from participants' daily diaries. Itemised country-specific unit costs were collected through official tariffs, pharmacies or literature. Costs were converted to 2018 values. The null hypothesis was tested based on one-sided credible intervals (CrIs) obtained by bootstrapping. Base-case analysis estimated direct cost and productivity losses using itemised costed resource use and the human capital approach. Scenario analyses with self-reported spending rather than itemised costing were also performed. Results Patients receiving oseltamivir (N = 1306) reported fewer healthcare visits, medication uses, hospital attendances and paid-work hours lost than the other patients (N = 1298). Excluding the oseltamivir cost, the average direct costs were lower in patients treated with oseltamivir from all perspectives, but these differences were not statistically significant (perspective of patient: euro17 [0-95% Crl: 16-19] vs. euro24 [5-100% Crl: 18-29]; healthcare provider: euro37 [28-67] vs. euro44 [25-55]; healthcare payers: euro54 [45-85] vs. euro68 [45-81]; and society: euro423 [399-478] vs. euro451 [390-478]). Scenario and age-group analyses confirmed these findings, but with some between-country differences. Conclusion The average direct and indirect costs were consistently lower in patients treated with oseltamivir than in patients without from four perspectives (excluding the oseltamivir cost). However, these differences were not statistically significant. The ALIC4E trial and the contributions of AWV, EB, SC, NF, PS, NJH, PaB, AGS, DG, KK, RMP, RRJ, BS, NT, RA, CCB and PB were funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme: Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics (PREPARE) (grant HEALTH-F3-2013-602525). PB, XL, JB and RB acknowledge partial Methusalem funding from the VAXIDEA and ASCID Centres of Excellence in vaccination and infectious diseases at the University of Antwerp. JB and RB were funded by their personal postdoctoral grants from the Research Foundation—Flanders (FWO). PS acknowledges that The Healthcare Committee, Region Västra Götaland, Sweden, partially funded the Swedish part of the study.

Objectives: To identify key determinants explaining countryyear variations in antibiotic use and resistance. Methods: Ambulatory antibiotic use data [in defined daily doses per 1000 inhabitants per day (DIDs)] for 19 European countries from 1999 to 2007 were collected, along with 181 variables describing countries in terms of their agriculture, culture, demography, disease burden, education, healthcare organization and socioeconomics. After assessing data availability, overlap and relevance, multiple imputation generalized estimating equations were applied with a stepwise selection procedure to select significant determinants of global antibiotic use (expressed in DIDs), relative use of subgroups (amoxicillin and co-amoxiclav) and resistance of Escherichia coli and Streptococcus pneumoniae. Results: Relative humidity, healthcare expenditure proportional to grossdomestic product, feelings of distrust, proportion of population aged .65 years and availability of treatment guidelines were associated with higher total antibiotic use expressed in DIDs. Restrictions on marketing activities towards prescribers, population density, number of antibiotics, educational attainment and degree of atheism were associated with a lower number of total DIDs used. Relative prescribing of amoxicillin and co-amoxiclav was mainly determined by healthcare system choices [e.g. general practitioner (GP) registration and restricted marketing]. Specific antibiotic use was found to be a significant determinant of resistance for some but not all drug/organism combinations. Incentives to stimulate GP gatekeeping were associated with lower levels of resistance, and life expectancy at age 65+ and atheism were associated with more resistance. Conclusions: Myriad factors influence antibiotic use and resistance at the country level and an important part of these can be modified by policy choices.

The force of infection, describing the rate at which a susceptible person acquires an infection, is a key parameter in models estimating the infectious disease burden, and the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of infectious disease prevention. Since Muench formulated the first catalytic model to estimate the force of infection from current status data in 1934, exactly 75 years ago, several authors addressed the estimation of this parameter by more advanced statistical methods, while applying these to seroprevalence and reported incidence/case notification data. In this paper we present an historical overview, discussing the relevance of Muench's work, and we explain the wide array of newer methods with illustrations on pre-vaccination serological survey data of two airborne infections: rubella and parvovirus B19. We also provide guidance on deciding which method(s) to apply to estimate the force of infection, given a particular set of data. We thank the editor and both referees for their valuable suggestions that have led to an improved version of the manuscript. This work was supported by research project (MSM 0021620839), funded by 'SIMID', a strategic basic research project funded by the institute for the Promotion of Innovation by Science and Technology in Flanders (IWT) (project number 06008); by the Fund of Scientific Research (FWO, Research Grant G039304) in Flanders, Belgium; and by the TAP research network (no. P6/03) of the Belgian Government (Belgian Science Policy). The R-code used to analyse the datasets in this manuscript is available from the authors.