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Background: People who inject drugs (PWID) are at elevated risk for HIV infection; however, syringe services programs (SSPs) are effective in curtailing HIV transmission. Despite their effectiveness, SSPs in many settings are hampered by social and political opposition. We aimed to estimate the impact of closure and temporary interruption of SSP service provision on the HIV epidemic among PWID in a rural US setting. Methods: Using an agent-based model calibrated to observed surveillance data, we simulated HIV risk behaviors and transmission in adult populations who inject and do not inject drugs in Scott County, Indiana, a rural American setting that experienced a devastating HIV outbreak in 2015. We projected HIV incidence and prevalence between 2020 and 2025 for scenarios with permanent closure, delayed closure (one additional renewal for 24 months before closure), and temporary closure (representing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic) of an SSP in comparison to SSP maintenance. Findings: With sustained SSP operation, we projected an incidence rate of 0.16 per 100 person-years among the overall population (95% simulation interval: 0.08-0.29). Permanently closing the SSP would cause an average of 62 more HIV infections and a 52.0% increase in the incidence rate during 2021 to 2025, resulting in a higher prevalence of 59.0% [48.3%-68.4%] (22.0% increase) among PWID by 2025. A delayed closure (from 2023 to 2025) would increase the five-year incidence rate by 33.2%. A temporary closure (lasting 12 months) would cause 12 (32.8%) more infections during 2020 to 2021. Interpretation: Our analysis suggests that temporary interruption and permanent closure of existing SSPs operating in rural US settings may lead to “rebound” HIV outbreaks among PWID. To maintain control of the HIV epidemic, it will be necessary to sustain existing or implement new SSPs in combination with other prevention interventions. Funding Statement: This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health (grant number DP2DA040236 to B.D.L.M and grant number R25MH083620 to W.C.G.) Declaration of Interests: The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Background Understanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum, within different HIV transmission risk groups in six US cities. Methods We used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial/ethnic- and risk-behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, non-acute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naive, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year. Results Individuals with undiagnosed non-acute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% [26.7%-44.9%] in New York City to 64.9% [47.0%-71.6%] in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in four of six cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person years, ranging from 76.4 [58.9-135.9] in Miami to 160.2 [85.7-302.8] in Baltimore. Conclusion These findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the US. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority-setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.

Study objective Emergency departments (ED) are critical touchpoints for encounters among patients with opioid use disorder (OUD), but implementation of ED initiated treatment and harm reduction programs has lagged. We describe national patient, visit and hospital-level characteristics of ED OUD visits and characterize EDs with high rates of OUD visits in order to inform policies to optimize ED OUD care. Methods We conducted a descriptive, cross-sectional study with the 2017 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, using diagnostic and mechanism of injury codes from ICD-10 to identify OUD related visits. NEDS weights were applied to generate national estimates. We evaluated ED visit and clinical characteristics of all OUD encounters. We categorized hospitals into quartiles by rate of visits for OUD per 1000 ED visits and described the visit, clinical, and hospital characteristics across the four quartiles. Results In 2017, the weighted national estimate for OUD visits was 1,507,550. Overdoses accounted for 295,954. (19.6%) of visits. OUD visit rates were over 8× times higher among EDs in the highest quartile of OUD visit rate (22.9 per 1000 total ED visits) compared with EDs in the lowest quartile of OUD visit rate (2.7 per 1000 ED visits). Over three fifths (64.2%) of all OUD visits nationwide were seen by the hospitals in the highest quartile of OUD visit rate. These hospitals were predominantly in metropolitan areas (86.2%), over half were teaching hospitals (51.7%), and less than a quarter (23.3%) were Level 1 or Level 2 trauma centers. Conclusion Targeting initial efforts of OUD care programs to high OUD visit rate EDs could improve care for a large portion of OUD patients utilizing emergency care.

STUDY OBJECTIVE Emergency department (ED)-based naloxone distribution and peer-based behavioral counseling have been shown to be feasible, but little is known about utilization maintenance over time and clinician, patient, and visit level factors influencing implementation. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of an ED overdose prevention program providing take-home naloxone, behavioral counseling, and treatment linkage for patients treated for an opioid overdose at two Rhode Island EDs from 2017 to 2020: one tertiary referral center and a community hospital. Utilizing a Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework, we evaluated program reach, adoption, implementation modifiers, and maintenance using logistic and Poisson regression. RESULTS Seven hundred forty two patients were discharged after an opioid overdose, comprising 966 visits (median: 32 visits per month; interquartile range: 29, 41). At least one intervention was provided at most (86%, 826/966) visits. Take-home naloxone was provided at 69% of visits (637/919). Over half (51%, 495/966) received behavioral counseling and treatment referral (65%, 609/932). Almost all attending physicians provided take-home naloxone (97%, 105/108), behavioral counseling (95%, 103/108), or treatment referral (95%, 103/108) at least once. Most residents and advanced practice practitioners (APPs) provided take home naloxone (78% residents; 72% APPs), behavioral counseling (76% residents; 67% APPs), and treatment referral (80% residents; 81% APPs) at least once. Most clinicians provided these services for over half of the opioid overdose patients they cared for. Patients were twice as likely to receive behavioral counseling when treated by an attending in combination with a resident and/or APP (adjusted odds ratio: 2.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.68, 3.12) compared to an attending alone. There was no depreciation in use over time. CONCLUSIONS ED naloxone distribution, behavioral counseling, and referral to treatment can be successfully integrated into usual emergency care and maintained over time with high reach and adoption. Further work is needed to identify low-cost implementation strategies to improve services use and dissemination across clinical settings.

Background Tools are needed to aid clinicians in estimating their patients' risk of transitioning to long-term opioid use and to inform prescribing decisions. Objective The objective of this study was to develop and validate a model that predicts previously opioid-naive patients' risk of transitioning to long-term use. Research design This was a statewide population-based prognostic study. Subjects Opioid-naive (no prescriptions in previous 2 y) patients aged 12 years old and above who received a pill-form opioid analgesic in 2016-2018 and whose prescriptions were registered in the California Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP). Measures A multiple logistic regression approach was used to construct a prediction model with long-term (ie, >90 d) opioid use as the outcome. Models were developed using 2016-2017 data and validated using 2018 data. Discrimination (c-statistic), calibration (calibration slope, intercept, and visual inspection of calibration plots), and clinical utility (decision curve analysis) were evaluated to assess performance. Results Development and validation cohorts included 7,175,885 and 2,788,837 opioid-naive patients with outcome rates of 5.0% and 4.7%, respectively. The model showed high discrimination (c-statistic: 0.904 for development, 0.913 for validation), was well-calibrated after intercept adjustment (intercept, -0.006; 95% confidence interval, -0.016 to 0.004; slope, 1.049; 95% confidence interval, 1.045-1.053), and had a net benefit over a wide range of probability thresholds. Conclusions A model for the transition from opioid-naive status to long-term use had high discrimination and was well-calibrated. Given its high predictive performance, this model shows promise for future integration into PDMPs to aid clinicians in formulating opioid prescribing decisions at the point of care.

An estimated one in five adolescents exhibit self-injurious behavior (SIB), which poses serious public health concerns. The present analysis aims to describe the prevalence and correlates of lifetime SIB among first-time offending court-involved nonincarcerated youth. Baseline data from 412 youth enrolled in Epidemiological Project Involving Children in the Court (EPICC), a longitudinal cohort study, were analyzed to identify the prevalence and correlates of lifetime SIB. Almost a quarter (22.4%) of youth self-reported lifetime SIB. Participants who were female, bisexual, and those with more severe post-traumatic stress symptoms had higher prevalence odds of lifetime SIB. These findings suggest the importance of screening for SIB among youth and may provide guidance in the development of interventions designed to improve health outcomes of adolescents who come into first contact with the juvenile justice system.

Concomitant with expanded legalization, cannabis is increasingly used to treat chronic pain among persons with HIV (PWH), despite equivocal benefit in research limited by small sample sizes and short duration of follow-up. To address these limitations, among a sample of PWH with pain interference enrolled in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, we performed a target trial emulation study to compare the impact of four cannabis use strategies on pain interference. Among those receiving long-term opioid therapy (LTOT), we also explored impact of these strategies on ≥ 25% LTOT dose reduction. Among the analytic sample (N = 1284), the majority were men with a mean age of 50. Approximately 31% used cannabis and 12% received LTOT at baseline. Adjusting for demographic and clinical factors, cannabis use in any of 4 longitudinal patterns was not associated with resolved pain interference over 12- to 24-month follow-up. Among 153 participants receiving LTOT at baseline, cannabis use at both baseline and follow-up was negatively associated with LTOT dose reduction compared to no use at both baseline and follow-up. These findings support other observational studies finding no association between cannabis use and improved chronic pain or LTOT reduction among PWH.

Objective Justice-involved youth report high rates of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs; abuse, neglect, household dysfunction) and are at high risk for elevated behavioral health needs (i.e., substance use, psychiatric symptoms). Research with broad samples of adolescents shows ACEs predict behavioral health outcomes, yet most research on the impact of ACEs among justice-involved youth focuses on recidivism. The present study addresses this gap by examining the prospective association between ACEs and psychiatric symptoms, substance use, and substance-related problems (i.e., consequences of use) among first-time justice-involved youth. Method First-time justice-involved youth (n = 271; 54.3% male; M age = 14.5 years; 43.5% Latinx; non-Latinx: 34.2% White, 8.6% Black, 7.1% Other, 6.7% Multiracial) and their caregivers were assessed at youth's first court contact and 4- and 12-month follow-ups. Youth and caregivers reported youth's exposure to ACEs through a series of instruments at baseline and 4-months (e.g., Childhood Trauma Questionnaire Short-Form; Traumatic Life Events Inventory). Primary outcomes included youth alcohol and cannabis use (Adolescent Risk Behavior Assessment), consequences of use (Brief Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire; Brief Marijuana Consequences Scale), and psychiatric symptoms (Behavior Assessment System for Children; National Stressful Events Survey PTSD Short Scale). Results Youth were exposed to three ACEs, on average, prior to first justice contact (M = 3). Exposure to more ACEs, particularly abuse, predicted substance use and psychiatric outcomes. Gender differences emerged for cannabis use and internalizing symptoms. Conclusions Implications for trauma-responsive juvenile justice reform are discussed, including screening for ACEs and their sequelae at first court contact and considering the role of masculine norms. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Suicidal thoughts and behaviors among juvenile justice populations are elevated. However, the characteristics of justice-involved youth who consider and attempt suicide are not well understood. This study examined suicidal ideation and attempt with first-time, preadjudicated diverted youth, and the relationship with commonly associated risk factors. The sample included 135 youth (50% male, Mage = 14.48) that provided complete responses to self-reported lifetime suicidal ideation and attempt items. Analyses examined relationships between suicidal ideation/attempt and mental health, child welfare involvement, delinquency, self-cutting, and substance use. First time, preadjudicated diverted youth reported high rates of lifetime suicidal ideation (27%) and attempt (17%). Suicidal ideation and attempt were associated with sexually minoritized status and self-cutting, while child welfare involvement was only associated with suicidal ideation. This high-risk population would benefit from refined suicide screening and prevention services not always available to justice-involved youth living in the community.

BACKGROUND: Limiting the incidence of opioid-naïve patients who transition to long-term opioid use (i.e., continual use for > 90 days) is a key strategy for reducing opioid-related harms. OBJECTIVE: To identify variables constructed from data routinely collected by prescription drug monitoring programs that are associated with opioid-naïve patients’ likelihood of transitioning to long-term use after an initial opioid prescription. DESIGN: Statewide cohort study using prescription drug monitoring program data PARTICIPANTS: All opioid-naïve patients in California (no opioid prescriptions within the prior 2 years) age ≥ 12 years prescribed an initial oral opioid analgesic from 2010 to 2017. METHODS AND MAIN MEASURES: Multiple logistic regression models using variables constructed from prescription drug monitoring program data through the day of each patient’s initial opioid prescription, and, alternatively, data available up to 30 and 60 days after the initial prescription were constructed to identify probability of transition to long-term use. Model fit was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (C-statistic). KEY RESULTS: Among 30,569,125 episodes of patients receiving new opioid prescriptions, 1,809,750 (5.9%) resulted in long-term use. Variables with the highest adjusted odds ratios included concurrent benzodiazepine use, ≥ 2 unique prescribers, and receipt of non-pill, non-liquid formulations. C-statistics for the day 0, day 30, and day 60 models were 0.81, 0.88, and 0.94, respectively. Models assessing opioid dose using the number of pills prescribed had greater discriminative capacity than those using milligram morphine equivalents. CONCLUSIONS: Data routinely collected by prescription drug monitoring programs can be used to identify patients who are likely to develop long-term use. Guidelines for new opioid prescriptions based on pill counts may be simpler and more clinically useful than guidelines based on days’ supply or milligram morphine equivalents. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11606-020-06555-x.

Agent-based models are a key tool for investigating the emergent properties of population health settings, such as infectious disease transmission, where the exposure often violates the key “no interference” assumption of traditional causal inference under the potential outcomes framework. Agent-based models and other simulation-based modeling approaches have generally been viewed as a separate knowledge-generating paradigm from the potential outcomes framework, but this can lead to confusion about how to interpret the results of these models in real-world settings. By explicitly incorporating the target trial framework into the development of an agent-based or other simulation model, we can clarify the causal parameters of interest, as well as make explicit the assumptions required for valid causal effect estimation within or between populations. In this paper, we describe the use of the target trial framework for designing agent-based models when the goal is estimation of causal effects in the presence of interference, or spillover.

Background: Prior evidence suggests that plasma HIV viral load is elevated during periods of crack cocaine use independent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) exposure. We sought to evaluate the effect of crack cocaine use frequency on HIV disease severity among HIV-positive people who use unregulated drugs (PWUD). Methods: We analyzed data from the ACCESS study, an open prospective cohort of HIV-positive PWUD including comprehensive HIV clinical monitoring in a setting with no-cost healthcare, including ART. Multivariable generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the independent effect of time-updated crack cocaine use frequency on HIV disease severity, adjusting for ART exposure and relevant confounders. HIV disease severity was measured using the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index, which is a validated prognostic index. Findings: Between 2005 and 2018, 806 individuals were recruited and contributed 8,537 observations. At baseline, the frequencies of crack cocaine use in the previous 180 days were: none (187, 23%), less than weekly (150, 19%), weekly (229, 28%), and daily or greater (240, 30%). In multivariable models adjusted for ART exposure and other confounders, daily or greater frequency of crack cocaine use was significantly associated with higher VACS Index scores (β = 0.9, 95% confidence interval: 0.2, 1.6) as compared to none. Interpretation: Daily or greater frequency of crack cocaine use may exacerbate HIV disease severity among HIV-positive PWUD. Although the observed effect was small, it was also independent of ART exposure. As this finding has been supported by previous evidence, the observed difference may reflect an underlying biological mechanism or other factors linked with crack cocaine use although further investigation is warranted. Funding Information: US National Institutes of Health. Declaration of Interests: We declare no competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: The ACCESS study was approved by the University of British Columbia/Providence Healthcare Research Ethics Board.

Objective We aimed to determine the effectiveness of various pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) prescription strategies for African American women impacted by mass incarceration within an urban setting. Design An agent-based model was utilized to evaluate prevention strategies in an efficient, ethical manner. By defining agents, their characteristics, and relationships, we assessed population-level effects of PrEP on HIV incidence. Methods We tested hypothetical PrEP prescription strategies within a simulation representing the African American population of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Four strategies were evaluated: PrEP for women meeting CDC indicators regarding partner characteristics, PrEP for women with a recently incarcerated male partner, PrEP for women with a recently released male partner, and couples-based PrEP at time of release. Interventions occurred alongside scale-up of HAART. We evaluated reductions in HIV transmissions, the number of persons on PrEP needed to avert one HIV transmission (NNT), and the resulting proportions of people on PrEP. Results Scenarios prescribing PrEP based on criminal justice system involvement reduced HIV transmissions. The NNT ranged from 147 (couples-based scenario) to 300 (recently released scenario). The percentage of the female population covered by PrEP at any one time ranged from 0.14% (couples-based) to 10.8% (CDC-based). CDC-guideline scenarios were consistently less efficient compared to the justice-involved interventions. Conclusions Expanding PrEP for African American women and their male partners affected by incarceration should be considered in national HIV prevention goals and correctional facilities leveraged as intervention sites. Partner characteristics in the current CDC indications may be more effective and efficient if guidelines considered criminal justice involvement.

Background Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities. Methods Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US). Results Combinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%–13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%–73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%–75.5% at ideal scale. Conclusions Evidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

Introduction Special populations, including veterans, pregnant and postpartum women, and adolescents, benefit from opioid use disorder treatment tailored to their specific needs, but access to such services is poorly described. This study identifies the availability of opioid use disorder treatment facilities that use medications and have special programming and contextualizes facilities amid counties’ opioid-related overdose mortality. Methods Data were compiled on 15,945 U.S. treatment facilities using medications for opioid use disorder listed in the Behavioral Health Services Treatment Locator in 2018. Facilities with programs tailored to special populations (veterans, pregnant and postpartum women, and adolescents) were identified and geocoded. Counties with such facilities were characterized. Cold spots (county clusters with poor treatment availability) were identified using Getis–Ord Gi* statistics. Data were extracted in October 2018 and analyzed from October 2018 to May 2019. Results Of all 3,142 U.S. counties, 1,889 (60.1%) had opioid use disorder treatment facilities. Facilities with tailored programs for veterans, pregnant and postpartum women, and adolescents were located in 701 (22.3%), 918 (29.2%), and 1,062 (33.8%) of the counties, respectively. Specific medications provided for opioid use disorder varied, with only a minority of facilities offering methadone (among facilities with tailored programs for veterans, 6.0%; pregnant and postpartum women, 13.2%; adolescents, 1.3%). Many counties reporting opioid-related overdose deaths lacked programs for special populations (veterans, 72.6%; pregnant and postpartum women, 54.8%; adolescents, 30.6%). Cold spots were located throughout the Midwest, U.S. Southeast, and portions of Texas. Conclusions Facilities using medications for opioid use disorder with tailored programs for veterans, pregnant and postpartum women, and adolescents are limited. There is a need for improved access to evidence-based programs that address the unique treatment needs of special populations.

We estimated human immunodeficiency virus incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for black and Hispanic vs white populations in 6 cities in the United States (2020–2030). Large reductions in incidence are possible, but without elimination of disparities in healthcare access, we found that wide disparities persisted for black compared with white populations in particular (lowest IRR, 1.69 [95% credible interval, 1.19–2.30]).

Background It is unknown what levels of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use are needed to reduce racial disparities in HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM). Using an agent-based model, we quantified the impact of achieving PrEP coverage targets grounded in equity on racial disparities in HIV incidence among MSM in an urban setting in the Southeastern United States. Methods An agent-based model was adapted to simulate HIV transmission in a network of Black/African American and White MSM aged 18-39 years in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metropolitan area over 10 years (2015-2024). Scenarios simulated coverage levels consistent with targets based on the ratio of the number of individuals using PrEP to the number of individuals newly diagnosed in a calendar year (i.e., the 'PrEP-to-need ratio'), ranging from 1 to 10. Incidence rate ratios and differences were calculated as measures of disparities. Results Without PrEP, the model predicted a rate ratio of 3.82 and a rate difference of 4.50 comparing HIV incidence in Black/African American and White MSM, respectively. Decreases in the rate ratio of at least 50% and in the rate difference of at least 75% were observed in all scenarios in which the PrEP-to-need ratio among Black/African American MSM was 10, regardless of the value among White MSM. Conclusion Significant increases in PrEP use are needed among Black/African American MSM to reduce racial disparities in HIV incidence. PrEP expansion must be coupled with structural interventions to address vulnerability to HIV infection among Black/African American MSM.

BACKGROUND: No prior studies have characterized long-term patterns of opioid use regardless of source or reason for use among patients with HIV (PWH). We sought to identify trajectories of self-reported opioid use and their correlates among a national sample of PWH engaged in care. SETTING: Veterans Aging Cohort Study, a prospective cohort including PWH receiving care at eight US Veterans Health Administration (VA) sites. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2018, we assessed past year opioid use frequency based on self-reported “prescription painkillers” and/or heroin use at baseline and follow-up. We used group-based trajectory models to identify opioid use trajectories and multinomial logistic regression to determine baseline factors independently associated with escalating opioid use compared to stable, infrequent use. RESULTS: Among 3,702 PWH, we identified four opioid use trajectories: 1) no lifetime use (25%); 2) stable, infrequent use (58%); 3) escalating use (7%); and 4) de-escalating use 11%). In bivariate analysis, anxiety; pain interference; prescribed opioids, benzodiazepines and gabapentinoids; and marijuana use were associated with escalating opioid group membership compared to stable, infrequent use. In multivariable analysis, illness severity, pain interference, receipt of prescribed benzodiazepine medications and marijuana use were associated with escalating opioid group membership compared to stable, infrequent use. CONCLUSION: Among PWH engaged in VA care, one in 15 reported escalating opioid use. Future research is needed to understand the impact of psychoactive medications and marijuana use on opioid use and whether enhanced uptake of evidence-based treatment of pain and psychiatric symptoms can prevent escalating use among PWH.

Background As the burden of opioid use disorder (OUD) increases in the United States, manifold federal and state initiatives have sought to increase access to treatment for OUD, which includes behavioral and pharmaceutical treatment modalities. Although the evidence base for outpatient treatment for OUD—including medications for opioid use disorder—is substantial, few studies have examined the risk factors for fatality during treatment for OUD. Methods Treatment Episode Data Set-Discharges (TEDS-D) data were used to evaluate correlates of death during outpatient treatment for OUD in 2016. To determine the correlates of mortality during an outpatient treatment for OUD, we constructed a pooled logistic regression model, stratified by use of medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD), to control for the duration of time in treatment and to identify the independent characteristics that may lead to differences in the odds of mortality during treatment. Findings 1861 (0.8%) of 235,745 outpatient treatment episodes for OUD included in our analysis resulted in fatality. Many factors correlated with death during treatment were similar for individuals who did and did not receive MOUD. However, non-White race was only significantly associated with decreases in fatality in non-MOUD treatment episodes. Male sex and reported intravenous drug use at admission were associated with fatality only for treatment episodes that did not involve MOUD. Conclusions In this national study of outpatient treatment episodes for OUD, we found differences in age, sex, region, drug use history, treatment setting, and treatment history significantly affected the risk of death during treatment. As more people become engaged with treatment, facilities should work toward delivering optimal treatment for all patients regardless of personal characteristics.

Author(s): Krebs, Emanuel; Zang, Xiao; Enns, Benjamin; Min, Jeong E; Behrends, Czarina N; Del Rio, Carlos; Dombrowski, Julia C; Feaster, Daniel J; Gebo, Kelly A; Golden, Matthew; Marshall, Brandon DL; Metsch, Lisa R; Schackman, Bruce R; Shoptaw, Steven; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Nosyk, Bohdan; Localized Economic Modeling Study Group | Abstract: ObjectiveEffective interventions to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS can vary in their ability to deliver value at different levels of scale and in different epidemiological contexts. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment and prevention interventions implemented at previously documented scales of delivery in six US cities with diverse HIV microepidemics.DesignDynamic HIV transmission model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.MethodsWe identified and estimated previously documented scale of delivery and costs for 16 evidence-based interventions from the US CDC's Compendium of Evidence-Based Interventions and Best Practices for HIV Prevention. Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City and Seattle, we estimated averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (healthcare perspective; 3% discount rate, 2018$US), for each intervention and city (10-year implementation) compared with the status quo over a 20-year time horizon.ResultsIncreased HIV testing was cost-saving or cost-effective across cities. Targeted preexposure prophylaxis for high-risk MSM was cost-saving in Miami and cost-effective in Atlanta ($6123/QALY), Baltimore ($18 333/QALY) and Los Angeles ($86 117/QALY). Interventions designed to improve antiretroviral therapy initiation provided greater value than other treatment engagement interventions. No single intervention was projected to reduce HIV incidence by more than 10.1% in any city.ConclusionCombination implementation strategies should be tailored to local epidemiological contexts to provide the most value. Complementary strategies addressing factors hindering access to HIV care will be necessary to meet targets for HIV elimination in the United States.

Background Male sex workers (MSWs) are at increased risk of HIV infection in the United States. Research is limited on sexual and drug use network characteristics of MSWs. Setting Community-based organization and health center in 2 US Northeast cities. Methods One hundred MSWs completed a behavioral assessment and sexual and drug network inventory. Using dyadic analyses, we assessed whether network characteristics, including sex worker-male client age, race, and HIV status homophily and risk multiplexity (ie, overlap in drug-use and sex networks), were associated with condom use. Results MSW participants' mean age was 33.6. Two-thirds identified as Black or Latino, 12% identified as heterosexual, and 90% reported recent drug use. Participants reported an average of 5.3 male clients in the past month (SD = 3.4), and having anal sex with 74% of these clients, at a rate of 2.2 times per month (SD = 4.6). Participants reported inconsistent condom use during anal sex with 53% of clients. In multivariable models, inconsistent condom use was more common in relationships with presumed HIV status homophily [odds ratio (OR): 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07 to 1.46] and sexual and drug network multiplexity (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.30); and less common within relationships where the client is older than the MSW participant (OR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.74 to 0.93). Number of multiplex relationships was positively associated with number of condomless anal sex acts with male clients (incidence rate ratio: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.54). Conclusions Network characteristics may contribute to disproportionate HIV risk among MSWs. Modeling studies should include network characteristics when simulating HIV transmission, and future HIV interventions should address the role of networks.

Introduction Infrequent use of and poor retention on evidence-based medications for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) represent a treatment gap, particularly among people living with HIV (PLWH). We examined predictors of MAUD initiation and retention across HIV status. Methods From Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) data, we identified new alcohol use disorder (AUD) diagnoses from 1998 to 2015 among 163,339 individuals (50,826 PLWH and 112,573 uninfected, matched by age, sex, and facility). MAUD initiation was defined as a prescription fill for naltrexone, acamprosate or disulfiram within 30 days of a new diagnosis. Among those who initiated, retention was defined as filling medication for ≥80% of days over the following six months. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess patient- and facility-level predictors of AUD medication initiation across HIV status. Results Among 10,603 PLWH and 24,424 uninfected individuals with at least one AUD episode, 359 (1.0%) initiated MAUD and 49 (0.14%) were retained. The prevalence of initiation was lower among PLWH than those without HIV (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.51–0.85). Older age (for PLWH: AOR 0.78, 95% CI 0.61–0.99; for uninfected: AOR 0.70, 95% CI 0.61–0.80) and black race (for PLWH: AOR 0.63, 95% CI 0.0.49–0.1.00; for uninfected: AOR 0.63, 95% CI 0.48–0.83), were associated with decreased odds of initiation for both groups. The low frequency of retention precluded multivariable analyses for retention. Conclusions For PLWH and uninfected individuals, targeted implementation strategies to expand MAUD are needed, particularly for specific subpopulations (e.g. black PLWH).

BACKGROUND:Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMP), by reducing access to prescribed opioids (POs), may contribute to a policy environment in which some people with opioid dependence are at increased risk for transitioning from POs to heroin/other illegal opioids. This study examines how PDMP adoption and changes in the characteristics of PDMPs over time contribute to changes in fatal heroin poisoning in counties within states from 2002 to 2016. METHODS:Latent transition analysis to classify PDMPs into latent classes (Cooperative, Proactive, and Weak) for each state and year, across three intervals (1999-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2016). We examined the association between probability of PDMP latent class membership and the rate of county-level heroin poisoning death. RESULTS:After adjustment for potential county-level confounders and co-occurring policy changes, adoption of a PDMP was significantly associated with increased heroin poisoning rates (22% increase by third year post-adoption). Findings varied by PDMP type. From 2010-2016, states with Cooperative PDMPs (those more likely to share data with other states, to require more frequent reporting, and include more drug schedules) had 19% higher heroin poisoning rates than states with Weak PDMPs (adjusted rate ratio [ARR]=1.19; 95% CI=1.14, 1.25). States with Proactive PDMPs (those more likely to report outlying prescribing and dispensing and provide broader access to law enforcement) had 6% lower heroin poisoning rates than states with No/Weak PDMPs (ARR=0.94; 95% CI=0.90, 0.98). CONCLUSION:There is a consistent, positive association between state PDMP adoption and heroin poisoning mortality. However, this varies by PDMP type, with Proactive PDMPs associated with a small reduction in heroin poisoning deaths. This raises questions about the potential for PDMPs to support efforts to decrease heroin overdose risk, particularly by using proactive alerts to identify patients in need of treatment for opioid use disorder. Future research on mechanisms explaining the reduction in heroin poisonings after enactment of Proactive PDMPs is merited.

Background and aims Opioid-related overdose death rates continue to rise in the United States, especially in racial/ethnic minority communities. Our objective was to determine if US municipalities with high percentages of non-white residents have equitable access to the overdose antidote naloxone distributed by community-based organizations. Methods We used community-based naloxone data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Rhode Island Non-Pharmacy Naloxone Distribution program for 2016-2018. We obtained publicly available opioid-related overdose death data from Massachusetts and the Office of the State Medical Examiners in Rhode Island. We defined the naloxone coverage ratio as the number of community-based naloxone kits received by a resident in a municipality divided by the number of opioid-related overdose deaths among residents, updated annually. We used a Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations to analyze the relationship between the municipal racial/ethnic composition and naloxone coverage ratio. To account for the potential nonlinear relationship between naloxone coverage ratio and race/ethnicity, we created B-splines for the percentage of non-white residents; and for a secondary analysis examining the percentage of African American/Black and Hispanic residents. The models were adjusted for the percentage of residents in poverty, urbanicity, state, and population size. Results Between 2016-2018, the annual naloxone coverage ratios range was 0-135. There was no difference in naloxone coverage ratios among municipalities with varying percentages of non-white residents in our multivariable analysis. In the secondary analysis, municipalities with higher percentages of African American/Black residents had higher naloxone coverage ratios, independent of other factors. Naloxone coverage did not differ by percentage of Hispanic residents. Conclusions There appear to be no municipal-level racial/ethnic inequities in naloxone distribution in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, USA.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In light of the accelerating drug overdose epidemic in North America, new strategies are needed to identify communities most at risk to prioritize geographically the existing public health resources (e.g. street outreach, naloxone distribution efforts). We aimed to develop PROVIDENT (Preventing Overdose using Information and Data from the Environment), a machine learning-based forecasting tool to predict future overdose deaths at the census block group (i.e. neighbourhood) level. DESIGN: Randomized, population-based, community intervention trial. SETTING: Rhode Island, USA. PARTICIPANTS: All people who reside in Rhode Island during the study period may contribute data to either the model or the trial outcomes. INTERVENTION: Each of the state’s 39 municipalities will be randomized to the intervention (PROVIDENT) or comparator condition. An interactive, web-based tool will be developed to visualize the PROVIDENT model predictions. Municipalities assigned to the treatment arm will receive neighbourhood risk predictions from the PROVIDENT model, and state agencies and community-based organizations will direct resources to neighbourhoods identified as high risk. Municipalities assigned to the control arm will continue to receive surveillance information and overdose prevention resources, but they will not receive neighbourhood risk predictions. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome is the municipal-level rate of fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses. Fatal overdoses will be defined as unintentional drug-related death; non-fatal overdoses will be defined as an emergency department visit for a suspected overdose reported through the state’s syndromic surveillance system. Intervention efficacy will be assessed using Poisson or negative binomial regression to estimate incidence rate ratios comparing fatal and non-fatal overdose rates in treatment vs. control municipalities. COMMENTS: The findings will inform the utility of predictive modelling as a tool to improve public health decision-making and inform resource allocation to communities that should be prioritized for prevention, treatment, recovery and overdose rescue services.

Context Supervised injection facilities are harm reduction interventions that allow people who inject drugs to use previously obtained substances under the supervision of health professionals. Although currently considered illegal under U.S. federal law, several U.S. cities are considering implementing supervised injection facilities anyway as a response to the escalating overdose crisis. The objective of this review is to determine the effectiveness of supervised injection facilities, compared with that of control conditions, for harm reduction and community outcomes. Evidence Acquisition Studies were identified from 2 sources: a high-quality, broader review examining supervised injection facility–induced benefits and harms (from database inception to January 2014) and an updated search using the same search strategy (January 2014‒September 2019). Systematic review methods developed by the Guide to Community Preventive Services were used (screening and analysis, September 2019‒December 2020). Evidence Synthesis A total of 22 studies were included in this review: 16 focused on 1 supervised injection facility in Vancouver, Canada. Quantitative synthesis was not conducted given inconsistent outcome measurement across the studies. Supervised injection facilities in the included studies (n=number of studies per outcome category) were mostly associated with significant reductions in opioid overdose morbidity and mortality (n=5), significant improvements in injection behaviors and harm reduction (n=7), significant improvements in access to addiction treatment programs (n=7), and no increase or reductions in crime and public nuisance (n=7). Conclusions For people who inject drugs, supervised injection facilities may reduce the risk of overdose morbidity and mortality and improve access to care while not increasing crime or public nuisance to the surrounding community.

Summary Background In the USA, Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV. Applying a distributional cost-effectiveness framework, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and epidemiological impact of two combination implementation approaches to identify the approach that best meets the dual objectives of improving population health and reducing racial or ethnic health disparities. Methods We adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to characterise HIV micro-epidemics in six US cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Seattle. We considered combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions to diagnose, treat, and prevent HIV transmission according to previously documented levels of scale-up. We then identified optimal combination strategies for each city, with the distribution of each intervention implemented according to existing service levels (proportional services approach) and the racial or ethnic distribution of new diagnoses (between Black, Hispanic or Latinx, and White or other ethnicity individuals; equity approach). We estimated total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of strategies implemented from 2020 to 2030 (health-care perspective; 20-year time horizon; 3% annual discount rate). We estimated three measures of health inequality (between-group variance, index of disparity, Theil index), incidence rate ratios, and rate differences for the selected strategies under each approach. Findings In all cities, optimal combination strategies under the equity approach generated more QALYs than those with proportional services, ranging from a 3·1% increase (95% credible interval [CrI] 1·4–5·3) in New York to more than double (101·9% [75·4–134·6]) in Atlanta. Compared with proportional services, the equity approach delivered lower costs over 20 years in all cities except Los Angeles; cost reductions ranged from $22·9 million (95% CrI 5·3–55·7 million) in Seattle to $579·8 million (255·4–940·5 million) in Atlanta. The equity approach also reduced incidence disparities and health inequality measures in all cities except Los Angeles. Interpretation Equity-focused HIV combination implementation strategies that reduce disparities for Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals can significantly improve population health, reduce costs, and drive progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the USA. Funding National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Gabapentin is commonly prescribed for chronic pain, including to patients with HIV (PWH). There is growing concern regarding gabapentin's potential for harm, particularly in combination with opioids. Among PWH, we examined factors associated with higher doses of gabapentin receipt and determined if receipt varied by opioid use. We examined data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, a national prospective cohort including PWH, from 2002 through 2017. Covariates included prescribed opioid dose, self-reported past year opioid use, and other sociodemographic and clinical variables. We used multinomial logistic regression to determine independent predictors of gabapentin receipt. Among 3,702 PWH, 902 (24%) received any gabapentin during the study period at a mean daily dose of 1,469 mg. In the multinomial model, high-dose gabapentin receipt was associated with high-dose benzodiazepine receipt (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 95% confidence interval [CI]= 1.53, [1.03-2.27]), pain interference (1.65 [1.39-1.95]), and hand or foot pain (1.81, [1.45-2.26]). High-dose gabapentin receipt was associated with prescribed high-dose opioids receipt (2.66 [1.95-3.62]) but not self-reported opioid use (1.03 [0.89-1.21]). PWH prescribed gabapentin at higher doses are more likely to receive high-dose opioids and high-dose benzodiazepines, raising safety concerns.

Background:Post-traumatic stress disorder sharply increases the risk of depression and suicide. Individuals living with post-traumatic stress disorder frequently use cannabis to treat associated symptoms. We sought to investigate whether cannabis use modifies the association between post-traumatic stress disorder and experiencing a major depressive episode or suicidal ideation.Methods:We used data from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of non-institutionalized Canadians aged ⩾15 years. The relationship between post-traumatic stress disorder and each outcome was modelled using logistic regression with an interaction term for cannabis and post-traumatic stress disorder, controlling for demographic characteristics, mental health, and substance use comorbidities. The ratio of odds ratios and relative excess risk due to interaction was calculated to measure interaction on the multiplicative and additive scales, respectively.Results:Among 24,089 eligible respondents, 420 (1.7%) reported a current clinical diagnosis of post-traumatic stress disorder. In total, 106 (28.2%) people with post-traumatic stress disorder reported past-year cannabis use, compared to 11.2% of those without post-traumatic stress disorder ( p 0.05).Conclusions:This study provides preliminary epidemiological evidence that cannabis use may contribute to reducing the association between post-traumatic stress disorder and severe depressive and suicidal states. There is an emerging need for high-quality experimental investigation of the efficacy of cannabis/cannabinoids for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has the potential to significantly reduce HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. However, the extent to which suboptimal PrEP adherence and retention in care may limit successful implementation is unknown. An agent-based model was used to represent the entire population of MSM in Rhode Island from 2013 to 2017. The impact of potential interventions to improve PrEP adherence and retention in care on HIV transmission was evaluated. Demographics, behaviors, and PrEP adherence and retention in care rates were based on local clinical data. We assumed that 20% of HIV-negative MSM had ever taken PrEP. The primary outcome was HIV incidence over the 5-year period. The model included 23,815 MSM with an estimated 4.1% HIV prevalence based on local surveillance data. An estimated 173.1 new infections occurred over 5 years [95% simulation interval (SI): 171.5-174.7], including 29.1 new infections among individuals who had ever initiated PrEP (95% SI: 28.6-29.7). Interventions that improved retention in PrEP care by an odds of 5.0 compared with the base case maximized reductions in HIV incidence among MSM who had ever initiated PrEP by 37.5%. Interventions focusing on improving PrEP adherence had little to no effect on HIV incidence, regardless of intervention efficacy. Retention in care is a critical component of the PrEP care continuum. Interventions that improve retention in PrEP care may lead to greater reductions in population-level HIV incidence compared with interventions focused exclusively on adherence.

Summary We summarise the evidence for medicinal uses of opioids, harms related to the extramedical use of, and dependence on, these drugs, and a wide range of interventions used to address these harms. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study estimated that in 2017, 40·5 million people were dependent on opioids (95% uncertainty interval 34·3–47·9 million) and 109 500 people (105 800–113 600) died from opioid overdose. Opioid agonist treatment (OAT) can be highly effective in reducing illicit opioid use and improving multiple health and social outcomes—eg, by reducing overall mortality and key causes of death, including overdose, suicide, HIV, hepatitis C virus, and other injuries. Mathematical modelling suggests that scaling up the use of OAT and retaining people in treatment, including in prison, could avert a median of 7·7% of deaths in Kentucky, 10·7% in Kiev, and 25·9% in Tehran over 20 years (compared with no OAT), with the greater effects in Tehran and Kiev being due to reductions in HIV mortality, given the higher prevalence of HIV among people who inject drugs in those settings. Other interventions have varied evidence for effectiveness and patient acceptability, and typically affect a narrower set of outcomes than OAT does. Other effective interventions focus on preventing harm related to opioids. Despite strong evidence for the effectiveness of a range of interventions to improve the health and wellbeing of people who are dependent on opioids, coverage is low, even in high-income countries. Treatment quality might be less than desirable, and considerable harm might be caused to individuals, society, and the economy by the criminalisation of extramedical opioid use and dependence. Alternative policy frameworks are recommended that adopt an approach based on human rights and public health, do not make drug use a criminal behaviour, and seek to reduce drug-related harm at the population level.

BACKGROUND: The United States is in the midst of an opioid overdose crisis. Little is known about the role of environmental factors in increasing risk of fatal opioid overdose. METHODS: We conducted a case–crossover analysis of 3,275 opioid overdose deaths recorded in Connecticut and Rhode Island in 2014–2017. We compared the mean ambient temperature on the day of death, as well as average temperature up to 14 days prior to death, to referent periods matched on year, month, and day of week. RESULTS: Low average temperature over the 3 to 7 days prior to death were associated with higher odds of fatal opioid overdose. Relative to 11°C, an average temperature of 0°C over the 7 days prior to death was associated with a 30% higher odds of death (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1–1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Low average temperature may be associated with higher risk of death due to opioid overdose.

Non-medical prescription opioid (NMPO) use and depression frequently co-occur and are mutually reinforcing in adults, yet NMPO use and depression in younger populations has been under-studied. We examined the prevalence and correlates of depressive symptomology among NMPO-using young adults. The Rhode Island Young Adult Prescription Drug Study (RAPiDS) recruited young adults in Rhode Island who reported past 30-day NMPO use. We administered the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Short Depression Scale (CES-D 10), and used modified Poisson regression to identify the independent correlates of depressive symptomology (CES-D 10 score ≥10). Over half (59.8%, n = 119) screened positive for depressive symptomology. In modified Poisson regression analysis, diagnostic history of depressive disorder and childhood verbal abuse were associated with depressive symptomology. Participants with depressive symptomology were more likely to report using prescription opioids non-medically to feel less depressed or anxious, to avoid withdrawal symptoms, and as a substitute when other drugs are not available. Among young adult NMPO users, depressive symptomology is prevalent and associated with distinct motivations for engaging in NMPO use and represents a potential subgroup for intervention. Improving guidelines with tools such as screening for depressive symptomology among young adult NMPO users may help prevent NMPO-related harms.

This study examines substance use, emotional/behavioral symptoms and sexual risk among first-time offending, court-involved, non-incarcerated (FTO-CINI) youth. Youth and caregivers (N=423) completed tablet-based assessments. By time of first justice contact (average 14.5 years old), 49% used substances, 40% were sexually active and 33% reported both. Youth with co-occurring substance use and sexual risk had more emotional/behavioral symptoms; youth with delinquent offenses and females had greater co-occurring risk. Time of first offense is a critical period to intervene upon high rates of mental health need for those with co-occurring substance use and sexual risk to prevent poor health and legal outcomes.

Background and aims While prescribed and illicit opioid use are primary drivers of the national surges in overdose deaths, opioid overdose deaths in which stimulants are also present are increasing in the U.S. We determined the social determinants and sociodemographic factors associated with opioid-only versus polysubstance opioid overdose deaths in Massachusetts. Particular attention was focused on the role of stimulants in opioid overdose deaths. Methods We analyzed all opioid-related overdose deaths from 2014 to 2015 in an individually-linked population database in Massachusetts. We used linked postmortem toxicology data to identify drugs present at the time of death. We constructed a multinomial logistic regression model to identify factors associated with three mutually exclusive overdose death groups based on toxicological results: opioid-related deaths with (1) opioids only present, (2) opioids and other substances not including stimulants, and (3) opioids and stimulants with or without other substances. Results Between 2014 and 2015, there were 2,244 opioid-related overdose deaths in Massachusetts that had accompanying toxicology results. Toxicology reports indicated that 17% had opioids only, 36% had opioids plus stimulants, and 46% had opioids plus another non-stimulant substance. Persons older than 24 years, non-rural residents, those with comorbid mental illness, non-Hispanic black residents, and persons with recent homelessness were more likely than their counterparts to die with opioids and stimulants than opioids alone. Conclusions Polysubstance opioid overdose is increasingly common in the US. Addressing modifiable social determinants of health, including barriers to mental health services and homelessness, is important to reduce polysubstance use and overdose deaths.

Borne out of a necessity for fiscal sustainability, simulation modeling is playing an increasingly prominent role in setting priorities for combination implementation strategies for HIV treatment and prevention globally. The design of a model and the data inputted into it are central factors in ensuring credible inferences. We executed a narrative review of a set of dynamic HIV transmission models to comprehensively synthesize and compare the structural design and the quality of evidence used to support each model. We included nineteen models representing both generalized and concentrated epidemics, classified as compartmental, agent-based, individual-based microsimulation or hybrid in our review. We focused on four structural components (population construction; model entry, exit and HIV care engagement; HIV disease progression; and the force of HIV infection), and two analytical components (model calibration/validation; and health economic evaluation, including uncertainty analysis). While the models we reviewed focused on a variety of individual interventions and their combinations, their structural designs were relatively homogenous across three of the four focal components, with key structural elements influenced by model type and epidemiological context. In contrast, model entry, exit and HIV care engagement tended to differ most across models, with some health system interactions –particularly HIV testing– not modeled explicitly in many contexts. The quality of data used in the models, and the transparency with which the data was presented differed substantially across model components. Representative and high-quality data on health service delivery was most commonly not accessed or unavailable. The structure of an HIV model should ideally fit its epidemiological context and be able to capture all efficacious treatment and prevention services relevant to a robust combination implementation strategy. Developing standardized guidelines on evidence syntheses for health economic evaluation would improve transparency and help prioritize data collection to reduce decision uncertainty.

Safe consumption spaces (SCS) are evidence-based interventions that reduce drug-related morbidity and mortality operating in many countries. However, SCS are yet to be widely implemented in the USA despite the escalating overdose epidemic. The aim of this multi-city study was to identify the factors associated with willingness to use a SCS among people who use drugs (PWUD) in Baltimore, Providence, and Boston, stratified by injection drug use status. Our secondary aim was to characterize the anticipated barriers to accessing SCS if they were to be implemented in these cities. PWUD were invited to complete a cross-sectional survey in 2017. The analysis was restricted to 326 opioid users (i.e., heroin, fentanyl, and non-medical opioid pill use). The majority (77%) of participants expressed willingness to use a SCS (Baltimore, 78%; Providence, 68%; Boston. 84%). Most respondents were male (59%), older than 35 years (76%), non-white (64%), relied on public/semi-public settings to inject (60%), had a history of overdose (64%), and recently suspected fentanyl contamination of their drugs (73%). A quarter (26%) preferred drugs containing fentanyl. Among injectors, female gender, racial minority status, suspicion of drugs containing fentanyl, and drug use in public/semi-public settings were associated with higher willingness to use a SCS; prior arrest was associated with lower willingness. Among non-injectors, racial minority status, preference for fentanyl, and drug use in public/semi-public settings were associated with higher willingness, whereas recent overdose held a negative association. The most commonly anticipated barriers to accessing a SCS in the future were concerns around arrest (38%), privacy (34%), confidentiality/trust/safety (25%), and cost/time/transportation (16%). These data provide evidence of high SCS acceptability among high-risk PWUD in the USA, including those who prefer street fentanyl. As SCS are implemented in the USA, targeted engagement efforts may be required to reach individuals exposed to the criminal justice system.

Background Syringe services programs (SSPs) are effective venues for delivering harm-reduction services to people who inject drugs (PWID). However, SSPs often face significant barriers to implementation, particularly in the absence of known human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreaks. Methods Using an agent-based model, we simulated HIV transmission in Scott County, Indiana, a rural county with a 1.7% prevalence of injection drug use. We compared outcomes arising in the absence of an SSP, in the presence of a pre-existing SSP, and with implementation of an SSP after the detection of an HIV outbreak among PWID over 5 years following the introduction of a single infection into the network. Results In the absence of an SSP, the model predicted an average of 176 infections among PWID over 5 years or an incidence rate of 12.1/100 person-years. Proactive implementation averted 154 infections and decreased incidence by 90.3%. With reactive implementation beginning operations 10 months after the first infection, an SSP would prevent 107 infections and decrease incidence by 60.8%. Reductions in incidence were also observed among people who did not inject drugs. Conclusions Based on model predictions, proactive implementation of an SSP in Scott County had the potential to avert more HIV infections than reactive implementation after the detection of an outbreak. The predicted impact of reactive SSP implementation was highly dependent on timely implementation after detecting the earliest infections. Consequently, there is a need for expanded proactive SSP implementation in the context of enhanced monitoring of outbreak vulnerability in Scott County and similar rural contexts.

Background Iran has developed the most robust harm reduction infrastructure in the Middle East, marked by availability of low threshold methadone maintenance treatment (MMT), needle and syringe program (NSPs), and condom distribution services. However, little is known about the socially situated risk factors that make harm reduction clients—specifically those enrolled in MMT—vulnerable to relapse or continued illicit drug use. In this study, we sought to understand the “risk environment” of clients enrolled in harm reduction services in Tehran, Iran. Methods Through observation and in-depth interviews with 22 drop-in-center clients and 8 staff members from July to August 2017, we explored the risk environments of clients of two drop in centers (DICs) in Tehran. All interviews were transcribed, coded and analyzed using a qualitative thematic analysis. Results We found that compulsory drug treatment programs, social stigma, police encounters, and difficulties in obtaining governmental identification documents, among other factors, contribute to social marginalization of DIC clients. Conclusion Many interviewed DIC clients continued to use illicit substances (particularly methamphetamine) despite having access to methadone treatment. This study underscores the panoply of social and structural barriers that DIC clients face while attempting to engage in treatment and harm reduction services. Following the “risk environment” framework, it is essential to identify the structural factors shaping individual behaviors that perpetuate experiences of social marginalization and poor health outcomes in this population.

Background The United States has the highest incarceration rate in the world. Incarceration can increase HIV risk behaviors for individuals involved with the criminal justice system and may be a driver of HIV acquisition within the community. Methods We used an agent-based model to simulate HIV transmission in a sexual-contact network representing heterosexual African American men and women in Philadelphia to identify factors influencing the impact of male mass incarceration on HIV acquisition in women. The model was calibrated using surveillance data and assumed incarceration increased the number of sexual contacts and decreased HIV care engagement for men post-release. Incarceration of a partner increased the number of sexual contacts for women. We compared a counterfactual scenario with no incarceration to scenarios varying key parameters to determine what factors drove HIV acquisition in women. Results Setting the duration of male high-risk sexual behavior to two years post-release increased the number of HIV transmissions to women by more than 20%. Decreasing post-release HIV care engagement and increasing HIV acquisition risk attributable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) also increased the number of HIV transmissions to women. Changing the duration of risk behavior for women, the proportion of women engaging in higher risk behavior, and the relative risk of incarceration for HIV-infected men had minimal impact. Conclusion The mass incarceration of African American men can increase HIV acquisition in African American women on a population-level through factors including post-release high-risk behaviors, disruption of HIV care engagement among formerly incarcerated men, and increased STI prevalence. These findings suggest that the most influential points of intervention may be programs seeking to reduce male risk behaviors and promote HIV care engagement post-release, as well as STI testing and treatment programs for recently incarcerated men, as well as women with incarcerated partners. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-6304-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background In 2015, the state of Rhode Island reported the fifth highest drug overdose mortality rate in the United States. In response to this crisis, Rhode Island created a statewide, publicly accessible drug surveillance and information system, www.PreventOverdoseRI.org (PORI). Alongside near real-time overdose surveillance data, PORI provides plain language materials and resources regarding overdose prevention, recognition and response. We sought to determine how people who use drugs (PWUD) perceive and utilize overdose prevention material, and to evaluate PORI’s action-based, plain language content. Methods We conducted 21 semi-structured qualitative interviews with PWUD from February-June 2017 in the state of Rhode Island. Data were audio-recorded, transcribed, coded in NVivo (Version 11), and key themes were developed. Results Participants viewed online health promotion and harm reduction materials as a useful approach for overdose prevention. Information displayed as accessible, action-driven statements was seen as most desirable for learning and dissemination. After viewing overdose prevention material, participants reported feeling better prepared for responding to an accidental overdose and motivated to share the infographics and website to other people either at risk for or likely to witness an overdose. Conclusion Action-focused, plain language approaches for overdose prevention materials can be of particular use for public health campaigns addressing opioid overdose crises. Overdose prevention health campaigns should incorporate evidence-based testing to ensure that outreach material is grounded in plain language techniques.

Background Rates of fatal opioid overdose in Massachusetts (MA) and Rhode Island (RI) far exceed the national average. Community-based opioid education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs are effective public health interventions to prevent overdose deaths. We compared naloxone distribution and opioid overdose death rates in MA and RI to identify priority communities for expanded OEND. Methods We compared spatial patterns of opioid overdose fatalities and naloxone distribution through OEND programs in MA and RI during 2016 to 2019 using public health department data. The county-level ratio of naloxone kits distributed through OEND programs per opioid overdose death was estimated and mapped to identify potential gaps in naloxone availability across geographic regions and over time. Results From 2016 to 2019, the statewide community-based naloxone distribution to opioid overdose death ratio improved in both states, although more rapidly in RI (from 11.8 in 2016 to 35.6 in 2019) than in MA (from 12.3 to 17.2), driven primarily by elevated and increasing rates of naloxone distribution in RI. We identified some urban/non-urban differences, with higher naloxone distribution relative to opioid overdose deaths in more urban counties, and we observed some counties with high rates of overdose deaths but low rates of naloxone kits distributed through OEND programs. Conclusions We identified variations in spatial patterns of opioid overdose fatalities and naloxone availability, and these disparities appeared to be widening in some areas over time. Data on the spatial distribution of naloxone distribution and opioid overdose deaths can inform targeted, community-based naloxone distribution strategies that optimize resources to prevent opioid overdose fatalities.

Background Severe acute pain is still commonly treated with opioid analgesics in the United States, but this practice could prolong the duration of pain. Objectives Estimate the risk of experiencing persistent pain after opioid analgesic use after emergency department (ED) discharge among patients with suspected urolithiasis. Methods We analyzed data collected for a longitudinal, multicenter clinical trial of ED patients with suspected urolithiasis. We constructed multilevel models to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of reporting pain at 3, 7, 30, or 90 days after ED discharge, using multiple imputation to account for missing outcome data. We controlled for clinical, demographic, and institutional factors and used weighting to account for the propensity to be prescribed an opioid analgesic at ED discharge. Results Among 2413 adult ED patients with suspected urolithiasis, 62% reported persistent pain 3 days after discharge. Participants prescribed an opioid analgesic at discharge were OR 2.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.82–3.46) more likely to report persistent pain than those without a prescription. Those who reported using opioid analgesics 3 days after discharge were OR 2.24 (95% CI 1.77–2.84) more likely to report pain at day 7 than those not using opioid analgesics at day 3, and those using opioid analgesics at day 30 had OR 3.25 (95% CI 1.96–5.40) greater odds of pain at day 90. Conclusions Opioid analgesic prescription doubled the odds of persistent pain among ED patients with suspected urolithiasis. Limiting opioid analgesic prescribing at ED discharge for these patients might prevent persistent pain in addition to limiting access to these medications.

Summary Background The synchronised monthly disbursement of income assistance, whereby all recipients are paid on the same day, has been associated with increases in illicit drug use and serious associated harms. This phenomenon is often referred to as the cheque effect. Because payment variability can affect consumption patterns, this study aimed to assess whether these harms could be mitigated through a structural intervention that varied income assistance payment timing and frequency. Methods This randomised, parallel group trial was done in Vancouver, Canada, and enrolled recipients of income assistance whose drug use increased around payment days. The recipients were randomly assigned 1:2:2 to a control group that received monthly synchronised income assistance payments on government payment days, a staggered group in which participants received single desynchronised monthly income assistance payments, or a split and staggered group in which participants received desynchronised income assistance payments split into two instalments per month, 2 weeks apart, for six monthly payment cycles. Desynchronised payments in the intervention groups were made on individual payment days outside the week of the standard government schedules. Randomisation was through a pre-established stratified block procedure. Investigators and statisticians were masked to group allocation, but participants and front-line staff were not. Complete final results are reported after scheduled interim analyses and the resulting early stoppage of recruitment. Under intention-to-treat specifications, generalised linear mixed models were used to analyse the primary outcome, which was escalations in drug use, predefined as a 40% increase in at least one of: use frequency; use quantity; or number of substances used during the 3 days after government payments. Secondary analyses examined analogous drug use outcomes coinciding with individual payments as well as exposure to violence. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT02457949 . Findings Between Oct 27, 2015, and Jan 2, 2019, 45 participants were enrolled to the control group, 72 to the staggered group, and 77 to the split and staggered group. Intention-to-treat analyses showed a significantly reduced likelihood of increased drug use coinciding with government payment days, relative to the control group, in the staggered (adjusted odds ratio 0·38, 95% CI 0·20–0·74; p=0·0044) and split and staggered (0·44, 0·23–0·83; p=0·012) groups. Findings were consistent in the secondary analyses of drug use coinciding with individual payment days (staggered group 0·50, 0·27–0·96, p=0·036; split and staggered group 0·49, 0·26–0·94, p=0·030). However, secondary outcome analyses of exposure to violence showed increased harm in the staggered group compared with the control group (2·71, 1·06–6·91, p=0·037). Additionally, 51 individuals had a severe or life-threatening adverse event and there were six deaths, none of which was directly attributed to study participation. Interpretation Complex results indicate the potential for modified income assistance payment schedules to mitigate escalations in drug use, provided measures to address unintended harms are also undertaken. Additional research is needed to clarify whether desynchronised schedules produce other unanticipated consequences and if additional measures could mitigate these harms. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Providence Health Care Research Institute, Peter Wall Institute for Advanced Research, Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research.

BACKGROUND: Girls have unique developmental pathways to substance use and justice system involvement, warranting gender-responsive intervention. We tested the efficacy of VOICES (a 12-session, weekly trauma-informed, gender-responsive substance use intervention) in reducing substance use and HIV/STI risk behaviors among justice- and school-referred girls. METHODS: Participants were 113 girls (M(age) = 15.7 years, SD = 1.4; 12 % White, 19 % Black, 15 % multi-racial; 42 % Latinx) with a history of substance use referred from juvenile justice (29 %) and school systems (71 %). Study assessments were completed at baseline, 3-, 6- and 9-months follow-up. Primary outcomes included substance use and HIV/STI risk behaviors; secondary outcomes included psychiatric symptoms (including posttraumatic stress) and delinquent acts. We hypothesized that girls randomized to the VOICES (n = 51) versus GirlHealth (attention control; n = 62) condition would report reduced alcohol, cannabis and other substance use, HIV/STI risk behaviors, psychiatric symptoms, and delinquent acts. RESULTS: Girls randomized to VOICES reported significantly less cannabis use over 9-month follow-up relative to the control condition (time by intervention, p < .01), but there were no between group differences over time in HIV/STI risk behavior. Girls in both conditions reported fewer psychiatric symptoms and delinquent acts over time. CONCLUSIONS: Data support the use of a trauma-informed, gender-responsive intervention to reduce cannabis use among girls with a substance use history and legal involvement; reducing cannabis use in this population has implications for preventing future justice involvement and improving public health outcomes for girls and young women, who are at disproportionate health and legal risk relative to their male counterparts.