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Abstract Phenological variability among populations is widespread in nature. A few predictive phenological models integrate intrapopulational variability, but none has ever explored the individual strategies potentially occurring within a population. The “pace-of-life” syndrome accounts for such individual strategies, but has yet to be explored under a phenological context. Here we integrated, for the first time, the slow-fast thermal strategies stemming from the “pace-of-life” into a mechanistic predictive framework. We obtained 4619 phenological observations of an important crop pest in the Bolivian Andes by individually following 840 individuals under five rearing temperatures and across nine life stages. The model calibrated with the observed individual “pace-of-life” strategies showed a higher accuracy in phenological predictions than when accounting for intrapopulational variability alone. We further explored our framework with generated data and suggest that ectotherm species with a high number of life stages and with slow and/or fast individuals should exhibit a greater variance of populational phenology, resulting in a potentially longer time window of interaction with other species. We believe that the “pace-of-life” framework is a promising approach to improve phenological prediction across a wide array of species.

Background Most carabid beetles are particularly sensitive to local habitat characteristics. Although in China grasslands account for more than 40% of the national land, their biodiversity is still poorly known. The aim of this paper is to identify the main environmental characteristics influencing carabid diversity in different types of grassland in northern China. Methods We investigated the influence of vegetation (plant biomass, cover, density, height and species richness), soil (bulk density, above ground litter, moisture and temperature) and climate (humidity, precipitation and temperature) on carabid community structure (species richness, species composition and functional diversity—measured as body size, movement and total diversity) in three types of grasslands: desert, typical and meadow steppes. We used Canonical correspondence analysis to investigate the role of habitat characteristics on species composition and eigenvector spatial filtering to investigate the responses of species richness and functional diversities. Results We found that carabid community structure was strongly influenced by local habitat characteristics and particularly by climatic factors. Carabids in the desert steppe showed the lowest richness and functional diversities. Climate predictors (temperature, precipitation and humidity) had positive effects on carabid species richness at both regional and ecosystem levels, with difference among ecosystems. Plant diversity had a positive influence on carabid richness at the regional level. Soil compaction and temperature were negatively related to species richness at regional level. Climatic factors positively influenced functional diversities, whereas soil temperature had negative effects. Soil moisture and temperature were the most important drivers of species composition at regional level, whereas the relative importance of the various environmental parameters varied among ecosystems. Discussion Carabid responses to environmental characteristics varied among grassland types, which warns against generalizations and indicates that management programs should be considered at grassland scale. Carabid community structure is strongly influenced by climatic factors, and can therefore be particularly sensitive to ongoing climate change.

Grazing areas management is of utmost importance in the Andean region. In the valleys of the Bolivian Cordillera Real near La Paz, pastoralism constitutes the traditional way for people to insure food security and economical sustainability. In these harsh mountains, unique and productive wetlands sustained by glacial water streams are of utmost importance for feeding cattle herds during the dry season. After the colonization by the Spanish, a shift in livestock species has been observed, with the introduction of exotic species such as cows and sheep, resulting in a different impact on pastures compared to native camelid species-llamas and alpacas. Here we explored some of the social-economical and environmental drivers that motivate Bolivian pastoralists to prefer exotic over native livestock species, based on 36 household surveys in the Cordillera Real. We constructed a Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model in order to assess the relationships between these drivers. Our results suggest that the access to market influenced pastoralists to reshape their herd composition, by increasing the number of sheep. They also suggest that community size increased daily grazing time in pastures, therefore intensifying the grazing pressure. At a broader scale, this study highlights the effects of some social-economical and environmental drivers on mountain herding systems.