Steven N. Goodman, Norma E. Rivera-Martinez, Magnus Nakrem Lyngbakken, David Moher, John P. A. Ioannidis, Frank W. Rockhold, Todd B. Seto, Helge Røsjø, Vincent Dubée, Ahmad Mourad, Andrea B. Troxel, Carmen M. Hernández-Cárdenas, Vanderson de Souza Sampaio, Thuy Le, Andy I. M. Hoepelman, Fernando Val, Sean M. O'Brien, Ting Yu Tseng, Leila Belkhir, Susanna Naggie, Patricia Meza-Meneses, Marvin A.H. Berrevoets, Javed Akram, Alistair Nichol, Léna Perez, Rebekah Wrenn, Susan C. Morpeth, Laurent Perrin, Felipe Jurado-Camacho, Lindsey R. Baden, Shehnoor Azhar, Bryan J. McVerry, Cheng-Yu Kuo, Arantxa Remigio-Luna, Thomas Hills, Cathrine Axfors, Ireri Thirion-Romero, Steve Webb, Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro, Jason E. Stout, Jesper M. Weehuizen, Peter G. Kremsner, Shanti Narayanasamy, Derek C. Angus, Yehuda Z. Cohen, Shu Hsing Cheng, Gisely Cardoso de Melo, Rossana Rosa, Nwora Lance Okeke, Stephen R. Walsh, Srinivas Murthy, Anissa Elfakir, Mark J. Mulligan, Olav Dalgard, Cheng-Pin Chen, Tse Hung Lin, Fernando G. Zampieri, Khalid S. Khan, Yi-Wen Huang, Anthony C. Gordon, Yaseen M. Arabi, Wu Zhong, Hon Lai Wong, Wei Sheng Chung, Bruno Igau, Andreas M. Schmitt, Maria Velinova, Robert J. Ulrich, Nicholas A Turner, Wu Pu Lin, Janneke van’t Hooft, Shaimaa Soliman, Lennie P. G. Derde, Colin McArthur, Arthur W. Baker, Benno Kreuels, Ravi K. Amaravadi, Ronghua Jin, Benjamin S. Abella, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Thomas Benfield, Lewis A. Novack, Lars G. Hemkens, Ehab F. Abdo, Perrine Janiaud, Sebastian Rodriguez-Llamazares, Chien Yu Cheng, Muhammad Shahzad, Robert Rolfe, Tsung Chia Chen, Yi-Chun Lin, Rogelio Perez-Padilla, Marcus V. G. Lacerda, and Lisa N. Cowan
Substantial COVID-19 research investment has been allocated to randomized clinical trials (RCTs) on hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, which currently face recruitment challenges or early discontinuation. We aim to estimate the effects of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine on survival in COVID-19 from all currently available RCT evidence, published and unpublished. We present a rapid meta-analysis of ongoing, completed, or discontinued RCTs on hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment for any COVID-19 patients (protocol: https://osf.io/QESV4/ ). We systematically identified unpublished RCTs (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, Cochrane COVID-registry up to June 11, 2020), and published RCTs (PubMed, medRxiv and bioRxiv up to October 16, 2020). All-cause mortality has been extracted (publications/preprints) or requested from investigators and combined in random-effects meta-analyses, calculating odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), separately for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine. Prespecified subgroup analyses include patient setting, diagnostic confirmation, control type, and publication status. Sixty-three trials were potentially eligible. We included 14 unpublished trials (1308 patients) and 14 publications/preprints (9011 patients). Results for hydroxychloroquine are dominated by RECOVERY and WHO SOLIDARITY, two highly pragmatic trials, which employed relatively high doses and included 4716 and 1853 patients, respectively (67% of the total sample size). The combined OR on all-cause mortality for hydroxychloroquine is 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.20; I² = 0%; 26 trials; 10,012 patients) and for chloroquine 1.77 (95%CI: 0.15, 21.13, I² = 0%; 4 trials; 307 patients). We identified no subgroup effects. We found that treatment with hydroxychloroquine is associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 patients, and there is no benefit of chloroquine. Findings have unclear generalizability to outpatients, children, pregnant women, and people with comorbidities.