1. Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious HIV targets despite expected donor withdrawal by combining improved ART procurement mechanisms with allocative and implementation efficiencies
- Author
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Tatiana Vinichenko, Cliff C. Kerr, David Wilson, Lolita Ganina, Predrag Đurić, Emiko Masaki, Irina Petrenko, Shufang Zhang, Clemens Benedikt, Richard Gray, Aliya Bokazhanova, Sherrie L Kelly, Robyn M. Stuart, Manoela Manova, Christoph Hamelmann, and Andrew J. Shattock
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Male ,Budgets ,RNA viruses ,Financial Management ,HIV AIDS ,Epidemiology ,Economics ,Cost-Benefit Analysis ,Hiv epidemic ,Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) ,lcsh:Medicine ,Social Sciences ,HIV Infections ,BUDGET ,medicine.disease_cause ,Pathology and Laboratory Medicine ,Geographical Locations ,HIV EPIDEMIC ,0302 clinical medicine ,Immunodeficiency Viruses ,FISCAL RISK ,Public and Occupational Health ,030212 general & internal medicine ,lcsh:Science ,Child ,National budget ,health care economics and organizations ,Multidisciplinary ,Environmental resource management ,1. No poverty ,HIV diagnosis and management ,Health Care Costs ,Middle Aged ,Vaccination and Immunization ,Kazakhstan ,Europe ,Professions ,Resource Management (Economics) ,ANTI-RETROVIRAL THERAPY ,Anti-Retroviral Agents ,HIV epidemiology ,Medical Microbiology ,Child, Preschool ,Viral Pathogens ,Viruses ,Female ,Pathogens ,Research Article ,Adult ,Asia ,Adolescent ,Female Sex Workers ,Yield (finance) ,Immunology ,Antiretroviral Therapy ,Microbiology ,HIV DIAGNOSIS ,Unit (housing) ,Resource Allocation ,03 medical and health sciences ,Young Adult ,Procurement ,Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) ,Antiviral Therapy ,Retroviruses ,medicine ,Financial Support ,Humans ,Microbial Pathogens ,Allocative Efficiency ,Finance ,Medicine and health sciences ,Health Services Needs and Demand ,Sex Workers ,business.industry ,lcsh:R ,Lentivirus ,Health Plan Implementation ,Infant, Newborn ,Organisms ,Infant ,Biology and Life Sciences ,HIV ,medicine.disease ,030112 virology ,Diagnostic medicine ,People and Places ,HIV-1 ,lcsh:Q ,Population Groupings ,FISCAL TRENDS ,Allocative efficiency ,Preventive Medicine ,business ,ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY - Abstract
Background Despite a non-decreasing HIV epidemic, international donors are soon expected to withdraw funding from Kazakhstan. Here we analyze how allocative, implementation, and technical efficiencies could strengthen the national HIV response under assumptions of future budget levels. Methodology We used the Optima model to project future scenarios of the HIV epidemic in Kazakhstan that varied in future antiretroviral treatment unit costs and management expenditure—two areas identified for potential cost-reductions. We determined optimal allocations across HIV programs to satisfy either national targets or ambitious targets. For each scenario, we considered two cases of future HIV financing: the 2014 national budget maintained into the future and the 2014 budget without current international investment. Findings Kazakhstan can achieve its national HIV targets with the current budget by (1) optimally re-allocating resources across programs and (2) either securing a 35% [30%–39%] reduction in antiretroviral treatment drug costs or reducing management costs by 44% [36%–58%] of 2014 levels. Alternatively, a combination of antiretroviral treatment and management cost-reductions could be sufficient. Furthermore, Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious targets of halving new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 2020 compared to 2014 levels by attaining a 67% reduction in antiretroviral treatment costs, a 19% [14%–27%] reduction in management costs, and allocating resources optimally. Significance With Kazakhstan facing impending donor withdrawal, it is important for the HIV response to achieve more with available resources. This analysis can help to guide HIV response planners in directing available funding to achieve the greatest yield from investments. The key changes recommended were considered realistic by Kazakhstan country representatives.
- Published
- 2017
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