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A large proportion of patients with cancer are unresponsive to treatment with immune checkpoint blockade and other immunotherapies. Here, we report a mathematical model of the time course of tumour responses to immune checkpoint inhibitors. The model takes into account intrinsic tumour growth rates, the rates of immune activation and of tumour-immune cell interactions, and the efficacy of immune-mediated tumour killing. For 124 patients, four cancer types and two immunotherapy agents, the model reliably described the immune responses and final tumour burden across all different cancers and drug combinations examined. In validation cohorts from four clinical trials of checkpoint inhibitors (with a total of 177 patients), the model accurately stratified the patients according to reduced or increased long-term tumour burden. We also provide model-derived quantitative measures of treatment sensitivity for specific drug-cancer combinations. The model can be used to predict responses to therapy and to quantify specific drug-cancer sensitivities in individual patients.

Purpose Deformable image registration (DIR) of longitudinal liver cancer computed tomographic (CT) images can be challenging owing to anatomic changes caused by radiation therapy (RT) or disease progression. We propose a workflow for the DIR of longitudinal contrast-enhanced CT scans of liver cancer based on a biomechanical model of the liver driven by boundary conditions on the liver surface and centerline of an autosegmentation of the vasculature. Methods and Materials Pre- and post-RT CT scans acquired with a median gap of 112 (32-217) days for 28 patients who underwent RT for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma were retrospectively analyzed. For each patient, 5 corresponding anatomic landmarks in pre- and post-RT scans were identified in the liver by a clinical expert for evaluation of the accuracy of different DIR strategies. The first strategy corresponded to the use of a biomechanical model-based DIR method with boundary conditions specified on the liver surface (BM_DIR). The second strategy corresponded to the use of an expansion of BM_DIR consisting of the auto-segmentation of the liver vasculature to determine additional boundary conditions in the biomechanical model (BM_DIR_VBC). The 2 strategies were also compared with an intensity-based DIR strategy using a Demons algorithms. Results The group mean target registration errors were 12.4 ± 7.5, 7.7 ± 3.7 and 4.4 ± 2.5 mm, for the Demons, BM_DIR and BM_DIR_VBC, respectively. Conclusions In regard to the large and complex deformation observed in this study and the achieved accuracy of 4.4 mm, the proposed BM_DIR_VBC method might reveal itself as a valuable tool in future studies on the relationship between delivered dose and treatment outcome.

We have previously shown that ablative radiotherapy (A-RT) with a biologically effective dose (BED10) ≥ 80.5 Gy for patients with unresectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is associated with longer survival. Despite recent large-scale sequencing efforts in ICC, outcomes following RT based on genetic alterations have not been described. We reviewed records of 156 consecutive patients treated with A-RT for unresectable ICC from 2008 to 2020. For 114 patients (73%), next-generation sequencing provided molecular profiles. The overall survival (OS), local control (LC), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate and multivariable Cox analyses were used to determine the associations with the outcomes. The median tumor size was 7.3 (range: 2.2–18.2) cm. The portal vein thrombus (PVT) was present in 10%. The RT median BED10 was 98 Gy (range: 81–144 Gy). The median (95% confidence interval) follow-up was 58 (42–104) months from diagnosis and 39 (33–74) months from RT. The median OS was 32 (29–35) months after diagnosis and 20 (16–24) months after RT. The one-year OS, LC, and intrahepatic DMFS were 73% (65–80%), 81% (73–87%), and 34% (26–42%). The most common mutations were in IDH1 (25%), TP53 (22%), ARID1A (19%), and FGFR2 (13%). Upon multivariable analysis, the factors associated with death included worse performance status, larger tumor, metastatic disease, higher CA 19-9, PVT, satellitosis, and IDH1 and PIK3CA mutations. TP53 mutation was associated with local failure. Further investigation into the prognostic value of individual mutations and combinations thereof is warranted.

Background: Optimal patient selection for radiotherapy in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is unestablished. Molecular profiling may select patients at high risk for locoregional recurrence (LRR) who would benefit from radiation. Methods: We included resectable pancreatic cancer (R-PDAC) patients, divided into training and validation cohorts, treated among three institutions with surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy, and borderline resectable or locally advanced pancreatic cancer (BR/LA-PDAC) patients treated with chemotherapy with or without radiation at the primary study institution. We isolated RNA from R-PDAC surgical specimens. Using NanoString, we identified miRNAs differentially expressed between normal and malignant pancreatic tissue. ElasticNet regression identified two miRNAs most predictive of LRR in the training cohort, miR-181b/d and miR-575, which were used to generate a risk score (RS). We evaluated the association of the median-dichotomized RS with recurrence and overall survival (OS). Results: We identified 183 R-PDAC and 77 BR/LA-PDAC patients with median follow up of 37 months treated between 2001 and 2014. On multivariable analysis of the R-PDAC training cohort (n = 90), RS was associated with worse LRR (HR = 1.34, 95%CI 1.27–11.38, p = 0.017) and OS (HR = 2.89, 95%CI 1.10–4.76, p = 0.027). In the R-PDAC validation cohort, RS was associated with worse LRR (HR = 2.39, 95%CI 1.03–5.54, p = 0.042), but not OS (p = 0.087). For BR/LA-PDAC, RS was associated with worse LRR (HR = 2.71, 95%CI 1.14–6.48, p = 0.025), DR (HR = 1.93, 95%CI 1.10–3.38, p = 0.022), and OS (HR = 1.97, 95%CI 1.17–3.34, p = 0.011). Additionally, after stratifying by RS and receipt of radiation in BR/LA-PDAC patients, high RS patients who did not receive radiation had worse LRR (p = 0.018), DR (p = 0.006), and OS (p &lt, 0.001) compared to patients with either low RS or patients who received radiation, irrespective of RS. Conclusions: RS predicted worse LRR and OS in R-PDAC and worse LRR, DR, and OS in BR/LA-PDAC. This may select patients who would benefit from radiation and should be validated prospectively.

PURPOSE Effective preoperative regimens and biomarkers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are lacking. We prospectively evaluated fluorouracil, leucovorin, irinotecan, and oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX)-based treatment and imaging-based biomarkers for borderline resectable PDAC. METHODS Eligible patients had treatment-naïve, histology-confirmed PDAC and one or more high-risk features: mesenteric vessel involvement, CA 19-9 level of 500 mg/dL or greater, and indeterminate metastatic lesions. Patients received modified FOLFIRINOX and chemoradiation before anticipated pancreatectomy. Tumors were classified on baseline computed tomography as high delta (well-defined interface with parenchyma) or low delta (ill-defined interface). We designated computed tomography interface response after therapy as type I (remained or became well defined) or type II (became ill defined). The study had 80% power to differentiate a 60% from 40% resection rate (α = .10). Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and subgroups were compared using log-rank tests. RESULTS Thirty-three patients initiated therapy; 45% underwent pancreatectomy. The median OS was 24 months (95% CI, 16.2 to 29.6 months). For patients who did and did not undergo pancreatectomy, the median OS was 42 months (95% CI, 17.7 months to not estimable) and 14 months (95% CI, 9.0 to 24.8 months), respectively. Patients with high-delta tumors had lower 3-year PFS (4% v 40%) and 3-year OS rates (20% v 60%) than those with low-delta tumors (both P < .05). Patients with type II interface responses had lower 3-year PFS (0% v 29%) and 3-year OS rates (16% v 47%) than those with type I responses (both P < .001). CONCLUSION Preoperative FOLFIRINOX followed by chemoradiation for high-risk borderline resectable PDAC was associated with a resection rate of 45% and median OS of approximately 2 years. Our imaging-based biomarker validation indicates that personalized treatment may be achieved using these biomarkers at baseline and post-treatment.

PURPOSE: Currently, radiologists use tumor-to-normal tissue contrast across multiphase computed tomography (MPCT) for lesion detection. Here, we developed a novel voxel-based enhancement pattern mapping (EPM) technique and investigated its ability to improve contrast-to-noise ratios (CNRs) in a phantom study and in patients with hepatobiliary cancers. METHODS: The EPM algorithm is based on the root mean square deviation between each voxel and a normal liver enhancement model using patient-specific (EPM-PA) or population data (EPM-PO). We created a phantom consisting of liver tissue and tumors with distinct enhancement signals under varying tumor sizes, motion, and noise. We also retrospectively evaluated 89 patients with hepatobiliary cancers who underwent active breath-hold MPCT between 2016 and 2017. MPCT phases were registered using a three-dimensional deformable image registration algorithm. For the patient study, CNRs of tumor to adjacent tissue across MPCT phases, EPM-PA and EPM-PO were measured and compared. RESULTS: EPM resulted in statistically significant CNR improvement (P < 0.05) for tumor sizes down to 3 mm, but the CNR improvement was significantly affected by tumor motion and image noise. Eighty-two of 89 hepatobiliary cases showed CNR improvement with EPM (PA or PO) over grayscale MPCT, by an average factor of 1.4, 1.6, and 1.5 for cholangiocarcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and colorectal liver metastasis, respectively (P < 0.05 for all). CONCLUSIONS: EPM increases CNR compared with grayscale MPCT for primary and secondary hepatobiliary cancers. This new visualization method derived from MPCT datasets may have applications for early cancer detection, radiomic characterization, tumor treatment response, and segmentation. IMPLICATIONS FOR PATIENT CARE: We developed a voxel-wise enhancement pattern mapping (EPM) technique to improve the contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) of multiphase CT. The improvement in CNR was observed in datasets of patients with cholangiocarcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, and colorectal liver metastasis. EPM has the potential to be clinically useful for cancers with regard to early detection, radiomic characterization, response, and segmentation.

BackgroundPreviously, we characterized subtypes of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) on computed-tomography (CT) scans, whereby conspicuous (high delta) PDAC tumors are more likely to have aggressive biology and poorer clinical outcomes compared to inconspicuous (low delta) tumors. Here, we hypothesized that these imaging-based subtypes would exhibit different growth-rates and distinctive metabolic effects in the period prior to PDAC diagnosis.Materials and methodsRetrospectively, we evaluated 55 patients who developed PDAC as a second primary cancer and underwent serial pre-diagnostic (T0) and diagnostic (T1) CT-scans. We scored the PDAC tumors into high and low delta on T1 and, serially, obtained the biaxial measurements of the pancreatic lesions (T0-T1). We used the Gompertz-function to model the growth-kinetics and estimate the tumor growth-rate constant (α) which was used for tumor binary classification, followed by cross-validation of the classifier accuracy. We used maximum-likelihood estimation to estimate initiation-time from a single cell (10-6 mm3) to a 10 mm3 tumor mass. Finally, we serially quantified the subcutaneous-abdominal-fat (SAF), visceral-abdominal-fat (VAF), and muscles volumes (cm3) on CT-scans, and recorded the change in blood glucose (BG) levels. T-test, likelihood-ratio, Cox proportional-hazards, and Kaplan-Meier were used for statistical analysis and p-value ResultsCompared to high delta tumors, low delta tumors had significantly slower average growth-rate constants (0.024 month−1 vs. 0.088 month−1, p−1. Leave-one-out-cross-validation showed 80% accuracy in predicting the delta-class (AUC=0.84). High delta tumors exhibited accelerated SAF, VAF, and muscle wasting (p ConclusionImaging-based subtypes of PDAC exhibit distinct growth, metabolic, and clinical profiles during the pre-diagnostic period. Our results suggest that heterogeneous disease biology may be an important consideration in early detection strategies for PDAC.

A mathematical model of checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy yields patient-specific prognosis of tumor kill and patient survival., We present a mechanistic mathematical model of immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy to address the oncological need for early, broadly applicable readouts (biomarkers) of patient response to immunotherapy. The model is built upon the complex biological and physical interactions between the immune system and cancer, and is informed using only standard-of-care CT. We have retrospectively applied the model to 245 patients from multiple clinical trials treated with anti–CTLA-4 or anti–PD-1/PD-L1 antibodies. We found that model parameters distinctly identified patients with common (n = 18) and rare (n = 10) malignancy types who benefited and did not benefit from these monotherapies with accuracy as high as 88% at first restaging (median 53 days). Further, the parameters successfully differentiated pseudo-progression from true progression, providing previously unidentified insights into the unique biophysical characteristics of pseudo-progression. Our mathematical model offers a clinically relevant tool for personalized oncology and for engineering immunotherapy regimens.

Purpose Response assessment of radiotherapy for the treatment of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHCC) across longitudinal images is challenging due to anatomical changes. Advanced deformable image registration (DIR) techniques are required to correlate corresponding tissues across time. In this study, the accuracy of five commercially available DIR algorithms in four treatment planning systems (TPS) was investigated for the registration of planning images with posttreatment follow-up images for response assessment or re-treatment purposes. Methods Twenty-nine IHCC patients treated with hypofractionated radiotherapy and with pretreatment and posttreatment contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) images were analyzed. Liver segmentations were semiautomatically generated on all CTs and the posttreatment CT was then registered to the pretreatment CT using five commercially available algorithms (Demons, B-splines, salient feature-based, anatomically constrained and finite element-based) in four TPSs. This was followed by an in-depth analysis of 10 DIR strategies (plus global and liver-focused rigid registration) in one of the TPSs. Eight of the strategies were variants of the anatomically constrained DIR while the two were based on a finite element-based biomechanical registration. The anatomically constrained techniques were combinations of: (a) initializations with the two rigid registrations; (b) two similarity metrics - correlation coefficient (CC) and mutual information (MI); and (c) with and without a controlling region of interest (ROI) - the liver. The finite element-based techniques were initialized by the two rigid registrations. The accuracy of each registration was evaluated using target registration error (TRE) based on identified vessel bifurcations. The results were statistically analyzed with a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and pairwise comparison tests. Stratified analysis was conducted on the inter-TPS data (plus the liver-focused rigid registration) using treatment volume changes, slice thickness, time between scans, and abnormal lab values as stratifying factors. Results The complex deformation observed following treatment resulted in average TRE exceeding the image voxel size for all techniques. For the inter-TPS comparison, the Demons algorithm had the lowest TRE, which was significantly superior to all the other algorithms. The respective mean (standard deviation) TRE (in mm) for the Demons, B-splines, salient feature-based, anatomically constrained, and finite element-based algorithms were 4.6 (2.0), 7.4 (2.7), 7.2 (2.6), 6.3 (2.3), and 7.5 (4.0). In the follow-up comparison of the anatomically constrained DIR, the strategy with liver-focused rigid registration initialization, CC as similarity metric and liver as a controlling ROI had the lowest mean TRE - 6.0 (2.0). The maximum TRE for all techniques exceeded 10 mm. Selection of DIR strategy was found to be a statistically significant factor for registration accuracy. Tumor volume change had a significant effect on TRE for finite element-based registration and B-splines DIR. Time between scans had a substantial effect on TRE for all registrations but was only significant for liver-focused rigid, finite element-based and salient feature-based DIRs. Conclusions This study demonstrates the limitations of commercially available DIR techniques in TPSs for alignment of longitudinal images of liver cancer presenting complex anatomical changes including local hypertrophy and fibrosis/necrosis. DIR in this setting should be used with caution and careful evaluation.

Purpose: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a heterogeneous disease with variable presentations and natural histories of disease. We hypothesized that different morphologic characteristics of PDAC tumors on diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans would reflect their underlying biology. Experimental Design: We developed a quantitative method to categorize the PDAC morphology on pretherapy CT scans from multiple datasets of patients with resectable and metastatic disease and correlated these patterns with clinical/pathologic measurements. We modeled macroscopic lesion growth computationally to test the effects of stroma on morphologic patterns, hypothesizing that the balance of proliferation and local migration rates of the cancer cells would determine tumor morphology. Results: In localized and metastatic PDAC, quantifying the change in enhancement on CT scans at the interface between tumor and parenchyma (delta) demonstrated that patients with conspicuous (high-delta) tumors had significantly less stroma, higher likelihood of multiple common pathway mutations, more mesenchymal features, higher likelihood of early distant metastasis, and shorter survival times compared with those with inconspicuous (low-delta) tumors. Pathologic measurements of stromal and mesenchymal features of the tumors supported the mathematical model's underlying theory for PDAC growth. Conclusions: At baseline diagnosis, a visually striking and quantifiable CT imaging feature reflects the molecular and pathological heterogeneity of PDAC, and may be used to stratify patients into distinct subtypes. Moreover, growth patterns of PDAC may be described using physical principles, enabling new insights into diagnosis and treatment of this deadly disease.

Background The assessment of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) response to therapy remains challenging. The objective of this study was to investigate whether changes in the tumor/parenchyma interface are associated with response. Methods Computed tomography (CT) scans before and after therapy were reviewed in 4 cohorts: cohort 1 (99 patients with stage I/II PDAC who received neoadjuvant chemoradiation and surgery); cohort 2 (86 patients with stage IV PDAC who received chemotherapy), cohort 3 (94 patients with stage I/II PDAC who received protocol-based neoadjuvant gemcitabine chemoradiation), and cohort 4 (47 patients with stage I/II PDAC who received neoadjuvant chemoradiation and were prospectively followed in a registry). The tumor/parenchyma interface was visually classified as either a type I response (the interface remained or became well defined) or a type II response (the interface became poorly defined) after therapy. Consensus (cohorts 1-3) and individual (cohort 4) visual scoring was performed. Changes in enhancement at the interface were quantified using a proprietary platform. Results In cohort 1, type I responders had a greater probability of achieving a complete or near-complete pathologic response (21% vs 0%; P = .01). For cohorts 1, 2, and 3, type I responders had significantly longer disease-free and overall survival, independent of traditional covariates of outcomes and of baseline and normalized cancer antigen 19-9 levels. In cohort 4, 2 senior radiologists achieved a κ value of 0.8, and the interface score was associated with overall survival. The quantitative method revealed high specificity and sensitivity in classifying patients as type I or type II responders (with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.92 in cohort 1, 0.96 in cohort 2, and 0.89 in cohort 3). Conclusions Changes at the PDAC/parenchyma interface may serve as an early predictor of response to therapy. Cancer 2018;124:1701-9. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

The mechanism for improved therapeutic efficacy of the combination therapy with nanoparticle albumin-bound paclitaxel (nAb-PTX) and gemcitabine (gem) for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has been ascribed to enhanced gem transport by nAb-PTX. Here, we used an orthotopic mouse model of gem-resistant human PDAC in which increasing gem transport would not improve the efficacy, thus revealing the importance of nAb-PTX transport. We aimed to evaluate therapeutic outcomes and transport of nAb-PTX to PDAC as a result of (1) encapsulating nAb-PTX in multistage nanovectors (MSV); (2) effect of gem on caveolin-1 expression. Treatment with MSV/nAb-PTX + gem was highly efficient in prolonging animal survival in comparison to other therapeutic regimens. MSV/nAb-PTX + gem also caused a substantial increase in tumor PTX accumulation, significantly reduced tumor growth and tumor cell proliferation, and increased apoptosis. Moreover, gem enhanced caveolin-1 expression in vitro and in vivo, thereby improving transport of nAb-PTX to PDAC. This data was confirmed by analysis of PDACs from patients who received gem-based neo-adjuvant chemotherapy. In conclusion, we found that nAb-PTX treatment of gem-resistant PDAC can be enhanced by (1) gem through up-regulation of caveolin-1 and (2) MSV through increasing accumulation of nAb-PTX in the tumor.