1. Development of a nomogram for predicting the risk of anastomotic leakage after a gastrectomy for gastric cancer
- Author
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Jun Lu, J-W. Xie, Q-Y. Chen, Man-Qiang Lin, Ru-Hong Tu, Long-Long Cao, Chang Ming Huang, Jia Bin Wang, J-X. Lin, C-H. Zheng, and Ping Li
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Percutaneous ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Anastomotic Leak ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Gastrectomy ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Risk Factors ,Stomach Neoplasms ,medicine ,Humans ,Billroth I ,Risk factor ,Stomach cancer ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,business.industry ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Cancer ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,Nomogram ,medicine.disease ,Surgery ,Survival Rate ,Nomograms ,Oncology ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Female ,Laparoscopy ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,business - Abstract
Aims To investigate the incidence of and factors associated with anastomotic leakage (AL) following gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 3632 patients who underwent a laparoscopic gastrectomy or open gastrectomy for gastric cancer. A logistic regression model was used to identify the determinant variables, and a nomogram for AL was developed. Results A total of 3632 patients were included in the study, 50 of whom (1.4%) developed AL. Postoperative deaths occurred in 6 (0.2%) patients with AL failure to rescue. Esophagojejunal AL (27/50) and Billroth I AL (20/50) were the most common types of AL. Gastrografin swallow was the main diagnostic method. The diagnosis was made a median of 9 days postoperatively. The median healing time for AL was 34.5 days. Of the 50 AL patients, 56% of patients could be managed nonsurgically, whereas 28% of patients required percutaneous radiologic drainage, 6% of patients were treated by endoscopy, and 10% of patients required a second surgery. A multivariate analysis showed the following adverse risk factors for AL: age ≥65 years, hemoglobin ≤8.0 g/dL and malnourishment. A multivariable model for AL showed a strong optimism-adjusted discrimination (concordance index, 0.675). The 5-year overall survival rates for patients without or with AL were 59.4% and 67.4%, respectively (p = 0.354). Conclusions AL was infrequent but was more prevalent in patients with age ≥65 years, hemoglobin ≤8.0 g/dL and malnourishment. We created a novel nomogram that can provide individualized prediction of AL in patients after a gastrectomy for gastric cancer, which may help clinicians in making treatment decisions.
- Published
- 2017
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