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Background We used two models to simulate a proposed noninferiority trial of radiotherapy (RT) omission in low-risk invasive breast cancer to illustrate how modeling could be used to predict the trial's outcomes, inform trial design, and contribute to practice debates. Methods The proposed trial was a prospective randomized trial of no-RT vs RT in women age 40 to 74 years undergoing lumpectomy and endocrine therapy for hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, stage I breast cancer with an Oncotype DX score of 18 or lower. The primary endpoint was recurrence-free interval (RFI), including locoregional recurrence, distant recurrence, and breast cancer death. Noninferiority required the two-sided 90% confidence interval of the RFI hazard ratio (HR) for no-RT vs RT to be entirely below 1.7. Model inputs included published data. The trial was simulated 1000 times, and results were summarized as percent concluding noninferiority and mean (standard deviation) of hazard ratios for Model GE and Model M, respectively. Results Noninferiority was demonstrated in 18.0% and 3.7% for the two models. The respective means (SD) of the RFI hazard ratios were 1.8 (0.7) and 2.4 (0.9); most were locoregional recurrences. The mean five-year RFI rates for no-RT vs RT (SD) were 92.7% (2.9%) vs 95.5% (2.2%) and 88.4% (2.0%) vs 94.5% (1.6%). Both models showed little or no difference in breast cancer-specific or overall survival. Alternative definitions of low risk based on combinations of age and grade produced similar results. Conclusions The proposed trial was unlikely to show noninferiority of omitting radiotherapy even using alternative definitions of low-risk, as the endpoint included local recurrence. Future trials regarding radiotherapy should address absolute reduction in recurrence and impact of type of recurrence on the patient.

Background Celecoxib and low-dose aspirin might decrease risk of breast cancer recurrence. Methods In the Canadian Cancer Trials Group MA.27, postmenopausal hormone receptor–positive breast cancer patients were randomly assigned (2 × 2) to adjuvant exemestane or anastrozole, and celecoxib or placebo. Low-dose aspirin of 81 mg or less was a stratification factor. Due to concerns about cardiac toxicity, celecoxib use was stopped in December 2004, while stratification by aspirin use was removed through protocol amendment. We examined the effects of celecoxib and low-dose aspirin on event-free survival (EFS), defined as time from random assignment to time of locoregional or distant disease recurrence, new primary breast cancer, or death from any cause; distant disease–free survival (DDFS); and overall survival (OS). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Random assignment to celecoxib (n = 811, 50.0%) or placebo (n = 811, 50.0%) was discontinued after 18 months (n = 1622). At a median of 4.1 years’ follow-up, among 1622 patients, 186 (11.5%) patients had an EFS event: 80 (4.9%) had distant relapse, and 125 (7.7%) died from any cause. Celecoxib did not statistically significantly impact EFS, DDFS, or OS in univariate analysis (respectively, P = .92, P = .55, and P = .56) or multivariable analysis (respectively, P = .74, P = .60, and P = .76). Low-dose aspirin use (aspirin users n = 476, 21.5%; non–aspirin users n = 1733, 78.5%) was associated in univariate analyses with worse EFS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12 to 1.96, P = 0.006) and worse OS (HR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.35 to 2.61, P < .001). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and treatment arm, aspirin use showed no statistical association with EFS (P = .08) and DDFS (P = .82), but was associated with statistically worse OS (HR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.49, P = .01). Conclusion Random assignment to short-term (≤18 months) celecoxib as well as use of low-dose aspirin showed no effect on DDFS and EFS in multivariable analysis. Low-dose aspirin increased “all-cause” mortality, presumably because of higher preexisting cardiovascular risks.

PAM50 intrinsic subtypes have been shown to affect breast cancer prognosis.A British Columbia cohort of 718 postmenopausal women treated with tamoxifen, without chemotherapy, had tumors intrinsically subtyped (luminal A, luminal B, basal, HER2) and centrally reviewed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) for estrogen and progesterone receptor (ER and PgR). We tested whether intrinsic subtype and other patient and tumor characteristics were associated with type of death.At median 11.7 years of follow-up, 429 (60%) of 718 women died: 30% of deaths were breast cancer-specific; 30% were other type. In 425 women 70 years, 32% died of breast cancer and 19% of other type. In 293 women ≥ 70, 27% died of breast cancer and 45% of other type. Intrinsic subtype was associated with breast cancer (P = .001); and older age, with other type (P .001). Additionally, stepwise cause-specific models indicated larger tumor size (P .001), more positive lymph nodes (P .001), and less PgR stain (P = .03) were associated with worse breast cancer survival; more positive lymph nodes (P = .002) and lymphovascular invasion (P = .02) were associated with worse other type. Adjusted breast cancer and other type survival is provided by factors at 5, 10, and 15 years.Intrinsic subtype was associated with breast cancer death, whereas age was associated with other type; most deaths in women ≥ 70 were from other type.

The lapatinib–taxane combination led to shorter PFS than trastuzumab–taxane in HER2+ metastatic breast cancer. We investigated the prognostic and predictive effects of pretreatment serum HER2, CAIX, and TIMP-1. MA.31 accrued 652 patients; 537 (82%) were centrally confirmed HER2+. Biomarkers were categorized for univariate and multivariable predictive investigations with a median cut-point, ULN cut-points (15 ng/ml for HER2; 506 pg/ml for CAIX; 454 pg/ml for TIMP-1), and custom cut-points (30 and 100 ng/ml for HER2). Stratified step-wise forward Cox multivariable analysis examined continuous and categorical effects of biomarkers on PFS in the ITT and central HER2+ populations; central HER2+ biomarker results are shown. Serum was banked for 472 (72%) of 652 patients. Higher serum HER2 (>median; >15; >30; or >100 ng/ml; p = 0.05–0.002); higher CAIX (>median; >506 pg/ml; p = 0.02; p = 0.001); and higher TIMP-1 (> median; > 454 pg/ml; p = 0.001; p = 0.02) had shorter univariate PFS. In multivariable analysis, higher continuous TIMP-1 was associated with significantly shorter PFS: HR = 1.001 (95% CI = 1.00–01.002; p = 0.004). Continuous serum HER2 and CAIX were not significantly associated with PFS. HER2 of 15 ng/ml or higher had shorter PFS (p = 0.02); higher categorical CAIX had shorter PFS (p = 0.01–0.08). Interaction terms of HER2, CAIX, and TIMP-1 with treatment were not significant; the predictive test power was low. Higher levels of serum TIMP-1, CAIX, and HER2 were significant prognostic biomarkers of shorter PFS. We found no significant interaction between serum biomarkers and response to lapatinib versus trastuzumab. Evaluation of TIMP-1 and CAIX-targeted therapy in addition to HER2-targeted therapy appears warranted in patients with elevated serum levels of these biomarkers.

BACKGROUND Breast cancer patients in the MA.27 trial had similar outcomes with steroidal aromatase inhibitor (AI) exemestane and nonsteroidal anastrozole. AIs increase the risk of osteoporosis. This study examined the effects of self-reported osteoporosis and osteoporosis therapy (OPT) on outcomes. METHODS The MA.27 phase 3 adjuvant trial enrolled 7576 postmenopausal women. The primary outcome was event-free survival (EFS), and the secondary outcome was distant disease-free survival (DDFS). Patients were permitted bisphosphonates to prevent or treat osteopenia/osteoporosis. In a multivariate, stratified Cox regression, factors were significant with a 2-sided Wald test P value ≤ .05. RESULTS Osteoporosis was reported at the baseline by 654 of the 7576 women (8.6%) and in total by 1294 patients. Oral OPT was received at the baseline by 815 of the 7576 women (10.8%) and in total by 2711 patients (36%). With a median follow-up of 4.1 years, 693 EFS events (9.15%) and 321 DDFS events (4.2%) occurred. Osteoporosis was not associated with EFS or DDFS. Few EFS events occurred before the initiation of OPT, with no substantive evidence of a time-differing effect on outcomes (nonproportional hazards). OPT (yes vs no) was significantly associated with improved EFS (hazard ratio [HR] for yes vs no, 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.80; P < .001) and DDFS (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.44-0.73; P

Recent ASCO/CAP guidelines focus on decision making associated with the presence/absence of continuous breast biomarkers. Statistical standardization (SS) is demonstrated as a method to evaluate the effects of continuous RT-PCR biomarker expression levels on breast cancer outcomes. MA.14 allocated 667 postmenopausal patients to tamoxifen based on locally determined ER/PR. Of 299 available patient tumor samples, 292 passed internal quality control. All tumors were centrally assessed by RT-PCR ER/PR/HER2 with each biomarker's z-scores categorized: ≥1.0 standard deviation (SD) below mean;1.0 SD below mean; ≤1.0 SD above mean;1.0 SD above mean. Log-rank statistics tested univariate differences in breast cancer relapse-free survival (RFS). Continuous SS-ER/PR/HER2 were assessed in multivariate Cox step-wise forward regression, adding a factor if p ≤ 0.05. Sensitivity analyses examined an external HER2+ cut-point of 1.32. Patients whose tumors were tested were representative of the MA.14 population (p values = 0.18-0.90). At 9.8 years median follow-up, SS-ER did not univariately impact RFS (p = 0.31). SS-PR values above the mean (z ≥ 0.0) had the best univariate RFS (p = 0.03). SS-HER2 also univariately impacted RFS (p = 0.004) with lowest (z-scores ≤ -1.0) and highest (z-scores 1.0) having shortest RFS. Multivariate stratified/unstratified Cox models indicated patients with T1 tumors (p = 0.02/p = 0.0002) and higher SS-PR (p = 0.02/p = 0.01) had longer RFS; node-negative patients had better RFS (in unstratified analysis, p 0.0001). Local ER/PR status did not impact RFS (p 0.05). Patients with SS HER2+ ≥ 1.32 had worse RFS (univariate, p = 0.05; multivariate, p = 0.06). We demonstrated that higher SS-PR, and SS HER2 levels, measured by RT-PCR impacted breast cancer RFS outcomes. Evaluation in other trials may provide support for this methodology.

Background Radiotherapy after breast conservation has become the standard of care. Prior meta-analyses on effects of radiotherapy predated availability of gene expression profiling (GEP) to assess recurrence risk and/or did not include all relevant outcomes. This analysis used GEP information with pooled individual-level data to evaluate the impact of omitting radiotherapy on recurrence and mortality. Methods We considered trials that evaluated or administered radiotherapy after lumpectomy in women with low-risk breast cancer. Women included had undergone lumpectomy and were treated with hormonal therapy for stage I, ER+ and/or PR+, HER2- breast cancer with Oncotype scores no greater than 18. Recurrence-free interval (RFI), type of RFI (locoregional or distant), and breast cancer-specific and overall survival were compared between no radiotherapy and radiotherapy using adjusted Cox models. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results The final sample included 1778 women from seven trials. Omission of radiotherapy was associated with an overall adjusted hazard ratio of 2.59 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.38 to 4.89, P = .003) for RFI. There was a statistically significant increase in any first locoregional recurrence (P = .001), but not distant recurrence events (P = .90), or breast cancer-specific (P = .85) or overall survival (P = .61). Five-year RFI rate was high (93.5% for no radiotherapy vs 97.9% for radiotherapy; absolute reduction = 4.4%, 95% CI = 0.7% to 8.1%, P = .03). The effects of radiotherapy varied across subgroups, with lower RFI rates for those with Oncotype scores of less than 11 (vs 11-18), older (vs younger), and ER+/PR+ status (vs other). Conclusions Omission of radiotherapy in hormone-sensitive patients with low recurrence risk may lead to a modest increase in locoregional recurrence event rates, but does not appear to increase the rate of distant recurrence or death.

NCIC CTG MA.14 and NSABP B-29 trials examined the addition of Octreotide LAR (OCT) to 5 years of tamoxifen (TAM). Gallbladder toxicity led to B-29 discontinuation of OCT, and MA.14 OCT administration shortened to 2 years. Median follow-up was 9.8 years for 667 MA.14 patients and 6.8 years for 893 B-29 patients. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS), defined as time from randomization to time of breast cancer recurrence; second primary cancer other than squamous or basal cell skin carcinoma, cervical carcinoma in situ, or lobular breast carcinoma in situ; or death. The primary statistical test was a univariable pooled stratified log-rank test; multivariable assessment was with Cox regression. For MA.14, 97 % of patients were ≥50 years; for B-29, 62 %. MA.14 patients were 53 % lymph node negative (LN–) while B-29 were 100 % LN–; 33 % of MA.14 patients received adjuvant chemotherapy, 2 % concurrently, while B-29 had 53 % concurrent chemotherapy. MA.14 patients were 90% hormone receptor positive; B-29, 100 %. MA.14 patients experienced 5-year DFS of 80 % with TAM, 76 % with TAM + OCT; B-29 patients had 5-year DFS of 88 % for both arms. Pooled univariable TAM + OCT to TAM hazard ratio (HR) was 0.99 (95% CI 0.81–1.20; p = 0.69): for MA.14, HR = 0.94 (0.73–1.20; p = 0.50); for B-29, HR = 1.09 (0.80–1.50; p = 0.59). Multivariable pooled HR = 0.98 (0.81–1.20; p = 0.84). Older patients (p < 0.001), with higher T stage (p < 0.001), and LN + (p < 0.001) had shorter DFS. Addition of OCT to TAM did not significantly improve DFS; gallbladder toxicity shortened the additional administration of OCT. This does not negate targeting the insulin–IGF-I receptor family with less toxic therapeutics.

Purpose The efficacy of lapatinib versus trastuzumab combined with taxanes in the first-line setting of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) –positive metastatic breast cancer (BC) is unknown. Patients and Methods The MA.31 trial compared a combination of first-line anti-HER2 therapy (lapatinib or trastuzumab) and taxane therapy for 24 weeks, followed by the same anti-HER2 monotherapy until progression. Stratification was by prior (neo)adjuvant anti-HER2 therapy, prior (neo)adjuvant taxane, planned taxane, and liver metastases. The primary end point was intention-to-treat (ITT) progression-free survival (PFS), defined as time from random assignment to progression by RECIST (version 1.0) criteria, or death for patients with locally assessed HER2-positive tumors. The primary test statistic was a stratified log-rank test for noninferiority. PFS was also assessed for patients with centrally confirmed HER2-positive tumors. Results From July 17, 2008, to December 1, 2011, 652 patients were accrued from 21 countries, resulting in 537 patients with centrally confirmed HER2-positive tumors. Median follow-up was 21.5 months. Median ITT PFS was 9.0 months with lapatinib and 11.3 months with trastuzumab. By ITT analysis, PFS was inferior for lapatinib compared with trastuzumab, with a stratified hazard ratio (HR) of 1.37 (95% CI, 1.13 to 1.65; P = .001). In patients with centrally confirmed HER2-positive tumors, median PFS was 9.1 months with lapatinib and 13.6 months with trastuzumab (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.83; P < .001). More grade 3 or 4 diarrhea and rash were observed with lapatinib (P < .001). PFS results were supported by the secondary end point of overall survival, with an ITT HR of 1.28 (95% CI, 0.95 to 1.72; P = .11); in patients with centrally confirmed HER2-positive tumors, the HR was 1.47 (95% CI, 1.03 to 2.09; P = .03). Conclusion As first-line therapy for HER2-positive metastatic BC, lapatinib combined with taxane was associated with shorter PFS and more toxicity compared with trastuzumab combined with taxane.

Genetic risks in breast cancer remain only partly understood. Here, we report the results of a genome-wide association study of germline DNA from 4,658 women, including 252 women experiencing a breast cancer recurrence, who were entered on the MA.27 adjuvant trial comparing the aromatase inhibitors (AI) anastrozole and exemestane. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) of top significance were identified in the gene encoding MIR2052HG, a long noncoding RNA of unknown function. Heterozygous or homozygous individuals for variant alleles exhibited a ∼40% or ∼63% decrease, respectively, in the hazard of breast cancer recurrence relative to homozygous wild-type individuals. Functional genomic studies in lymphoblastoid cell lines and ERα-positive breast cancer cell lines showed that expression from MIR2052HG and the ESR1 gene encoding estrogen receptor-α (ERα) was induced by estrogen and AI in a SNP-dependent manner. Variant SNP genotypes exhibited increased ERα binding to estrogen response elements, relative to wild-type genotypes, a pattern that was reversed by AI treatment. Further, variant SNPs were associated with lower expression of MIR2052HG and ERα. RNAi-mediated silencing of MIR2052HG in breast cancer cell lines decreased ERα expression, cell proliferation, and anchorage-independent colony formation. Mechanistic investigations revealed that MIR2052HG sustained ERα levels both by promoting AKT/FOXO3-mediated ESR1 transcription and by limiting ubiquitin-mediated, proteasome-dependent degradation of ERα. Taken together, our results define MIR2052HS as a functionally polymorphic gene that affects risks of breast cancer recurrence in women treated with AI. More broadly, our results offer a pharmacogenomic basis to understand differences in the response of breast cancer patients to AI therapy. Cancer Res; 76(23); 7012–23. ©2016 AACR.

Baseline patient and tumor characteristics differentially affected type of death in the MA.17 placebo-controlled letrozole trial where cardiovascular death was not separately identified. The MA.27 trial allowed competing risks analysis of breast cancer (BC), cardiovascular, and other type (OT) of death. MA.27 was a phase III adjuvant breast cancer trial of exemestane versus anastrozole. Effects of baseline patient and tumor characteristics were tested for whether factors were associated with (1) all cause mortality and (2) cause-specific mortality. We also fit step-wise forward cause-specific-adjusted models. 7576 women (median age 64 years; 5417 (72 %) < 70 years and 2159 (28 %) ≥ 70 years) were enrolled and followed for median 4.1 years. The 432 deaths comprised 187 (43 %) BC, 66 (15 %) cardiovascular, and 179 (41 %) OT. Five baseline factors were differentially associated with type of death. Older patients had greater BC (p = 0.03), cardiovascular (p < 0.001), and other types (p < 0.001) of mortality. Patients with pre-existing cardiovascular history had worse cardiovascular mortality (p < 0.001); those with worse ECOG performance status had worse OT mortality (p < 0.001). Patients with T1 tumors (p < 0.001) and progesterone receptor positive had less BC mortality (p < 0.001). Fewer BC deaths occurred with node-negative disease (p < 0.001), estrogen receptor-positive tumors (p = 0.001), and without adjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.005); worse cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.01), with trastuzumab; worse OT mortality, for non-whites (p = 0.03) and without adjuvant radiotherapy (p = 0.003). Overall, 57 % of deaths in MA.27 AI-treated patients were non-breast cancer related. Baseline patient and tumor characteristics differentially affected type of death with women 70 or older experiencing more non-breast cancer death.

Purpose Somatostatin analogs act directly on breast cancer cells and indirectly on insulin and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) levels. This trial was undertaken to assess whether octreotide would lower insulin and IGF-1 levels and reduce risk of breast cancer recurrence. Patients and Methods The NCIC CTG MA.14 (NCIC Clinical Trials Group MA.14) trial randomly assigned postmenopausal women to 5 years of tamoxifen 20 mg daily (TAM) or TAM plus 2 years of octreotide 90 mg depot intramuscular injections monthly (TAM-OCT) as adjuvant therapy. The primary end point was event-free survival (EFS). Secondary end points were relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), toxicity, and effects of treatment on IGF physiology. Results Among 667 women with a median follow-up of 7.9 years, 220 events occurred—108 with TAM-OCT and 112 with TAM. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs; TAM-OCT to TAM) were 0.93 for EFS (95% CI, 0.71 to 1.22; P = .62), 0.84 for RFS (95% CI, 0.59 to 1.18; P = .31), and 0.97 for OS (95% CI, 0.69 to 1.37; P = .86). Among patients with normal baseline gallbladder imaging, cholecystectomy was required in 23.0% of those receiving TAM-OCT but in only 1.4% of those receiving TAM (P < .001). At 4 months, TAM-OCT had significantly (P < .001) lowered IGF-1, IGF binding protein 3, and C-peptide levels. Older age (P = .02), tumor size (P = .001), nodal status (P = .01), high C-peptide levels (P < .001), and higher body mass index (BMI) in models excluding C-peptide (P < .001) were associated with poorer EFS in multivariate analysis. Conclusion Octreotide-related changes in circulating IGF-1 and C-peptide levels were statistically significant. Octreotide did not add significant clinical benefit. High C-peptide levels (surrogate for insulin secretion rate) and high BMI were associated with poor outcome.

Purpose Standardized definitions of breast cancer clinical trial end points must be adopted to permit the consistent interpretation and analysis of breast cancer clinical trials and to facilitate cross-trial comparisons and meta-analyses. Standardizing terms will allow for uniformity in data collection across studies, which will optimize clinical trial utility and efficiency. A given end point term (eg, overall survival) used in a breast cancer trial should always encompass the same set of events (eg, death attributable to breast cancer, death attributable to cause other than breast cancer, death from unknown cause), and, in turn, each event within that end point should be commonly defined across end points and studies. Methods A panel of experts in breast cancer clinical trials representing medical oncology, biostatistics, and correlative science convened to formulate standard definitions and address the confusion that nonstandard definitions of widely used end point terms for a breast cancer clinical trial can generate. We propose standard definitions for efficacy end points and events in early-stage adjuvant breast cancer clinical trials. In some cases, it is expected that the standard end points may not address a specific trial question, so that modified or customized end points would need to be prospectively defined and consistently used. Conclusion The use of the proposed common end point definitions will facilitate interpretation of trial outcomes. This approach may be adopted to develop standard outcome definitions for use in trials involving other cancer sites.

Purpose Treatment-emergent symptoms with adjuvant tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitors (AIs) have been associated with superior recurrence-free survival (RFS). We hypothesized that MA.27 anastrozole- or exemestane-treated patients with new or worsening vasomotor and/or joint symptoms would have improved RFS. Patients and Methods MA.27 randomly assigned 7,576 postmenopausal women with breast cancer to 5 years of anastrozole or exemestane. Patient-reported symptoms were collected using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0 at protocol-specified baseline and 6- and 12-month clinical visits. Symptoms were considered present with either vasomotor and/or joint complaints. Associations between symptoms and baseline patient characteristics were examined with χ2 and Fisher's exact tests. Subsequent effects of new or worsening symptoms on RFS were examined with landmark analyses and stratified univariable and multivariable Cox models. We examined the effects of 3-month symptoms arising from unplanned clinic visits as a result of severe toxicity. Results Patients were assessable if eligible for the MA.27 trial, received some trial therapy, and had no disease recurrence at the end of a symptom assessment period; 96% of patients (n = 7,306 patients) were included at 6 months, and 96% (n = 7,246) were included at 12 months. Thirty-four percent of patients had baseline symptoms. For patients without baseline symptoms, 25% and 52% had new symptoms by 6 and 12 months, respectively. Neither treatment-emergent nor baseline symptoms significantly impacted RFS (P > .10) in patients with or without baseline symptoms. Conclusion In MA.27, anastrozole or exemestane treatment-emergent symptoms were not associated with improved RFS. Women should be supported through treatment and encouraged to remain on their AI regardless of their symptoms.

Summary Background Treatment of breast cancer with aromatase inhibitors is associated with damage to bones. NCIC CTG MA.27 was an open-label, phase 3, randomised controlled trial in which women with breast cancer were assigned to one of two adjuvant oral aromatase inhibitors—exemestane or anastrozole. We postulated that exemestane—a mildly androgenic steroid—might have a less detrimental effect on bone than non-steroidal anastrozole. In this companion study to MA.27, we compared changes in bone mineral density (BMD) in the lumbar spine and total hip between patients treated with exemestane and patients treated with anastrozole. Methods In MA.27, postmenopausal women with early stage hormone (oestrogen) receptor-positive invasive breast cancer were randomly assigned to exemestane 25 mg versus anastrozole 1 mg, daily. MA.27B recruited two groups of women from MA.27: those with BMD T-scores of −2·0 or more (up to 2 SDs below sex-matched, young adult mean) and those with at least one T-score (hip or spine) less than −2·0. Both groups received vitamin D and calcium; those with baseline T-scores of less than −2·0 also received bisphosphonates. The primary endpoints were percent change of BMD at 2 years in lumbar spine and total hip for both groups. We analysed patients according to which aromatase inhibitor and T-score groups they were allocated to but BMD assessments ceased if patients deviated from protocol. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00354302. Findings Between April 24, 2006, and May 30, 2008, 300 patients with baseline T-scores of −2·0 or more were accrued (147 allocated exemestane, 153 anastrozole); and 197 patients with baseline T-scores of less than −2·0 (101 exemestane, 96 anastrozole). For patients with T-scores greater than −2·0 at baseline, mean change of bone mineral density in the spine at 2 years did not differ significantly between patients taking exemestane and patients taking anastrozole (−0·92%, 95% CI −2·35 to 0·50 vs −2·39%, 95% CI −3·77 to −1·01; p=0·08). Respective mean loss in the hip was −1·93% (95% CI −2·93 to −0·93) versus −2·71% (95% CI −4·32 to −1·11; p=0·10). Likewise for those who started with T-scores of less than −2·0, mean change of spine bone mineral density at 2 years did not differ significantly between the exemestane and anastrozole treatment groups (2·11%, 95% CI −0·84 to 5·06 vs 3·72%, 95% CI 1·54 to 5·89; p=0·26), nor did hip bone mineral density (2·09%, 95% CI −1·45 to 5·63 vs 0·0%, 95% CI −3·67 to 3·66; p=0·28). Patients with baseline T-score of −2·0 or more taking exemestane had two fragility fractures and two other fractures, those taking anastrozole had three fragility fractures and five other fractures. For patients who had baseline T-scores of less than −2·0 taking exemestane, one had a fragility fracture and four had other fractures, whereas those taking anastrozole had five fragility fractures and one other fracture. Interpretation Our results demonstrate that adjuvant treatment with aromatase inhibitors can be considered for breast cancer patients who have T-scores less than −2·0. Funding Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute, Pfizer, Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Introduction: We hypothesized improved inter-laboratory comparability of estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) across different assay methodologies with adjunctive statistical standardization, akin to bone mineral density (BMD) z-scores. We examined statistical standardization in MA.12, a placebo-controlled pre-menopausal trial of adjuvant tamoxifen with locally assessed hormone receptor +/- tumours, and in a cohort of post-menopausal British Columbia (BC) tamoxifen-treated patients. Methods: ER and PgR were centrally assessed for both patient groups with real time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and immunohistochemistry (IHC). Effects on disease-free survival (DFS) were investigated separately for 345 MA.12 and 673 BC patients who had both qPCR and IHC assessments. Comparisons utilized continuous laboratory units and statistically standardized z-scores. Univariate categorization of ER/PgR was by number of standard deviations (SD) above or below the mean (z-score ≥1.0 SD below mean; z-score 1.0 SD above mean). Exploratory multivariate examinations utilized step-wise Cox regression. Results: Median follow-up for MA.12 was 9.7 years; for BC patients, 11.8 years. For MA.12, 101 of 345 (29%) patients were IHC ER-PgR-. ER was not univariately associated with DFS (qPCR, P = 0.19; IHC, P = 0.08), while PgR was (qPCR, P = 0.09; IHC, P = 0.04). For BC patients, neither receptor was univariately associated with DFS: for ER, PCR, P = 0.36, IHC, P = 0.24; while for PgR, qPCR, P = 0.17, IHC, P = 0.31. Multivariately, MA.12 patients randomized to tamoxifen had significantly better DFS (P = 0.002 to 0.005) than placebo. Meanwhile, jointly ER and PgR were not associated with DFS whether assessed by qPCR or by IHC in all patients, or in the subgroup of patients with IHC positive stain, for pooled or separate treatment arms. Different results by type of continuous unit supported the concept of ER level being relevant for medical decision-making. For postmenopausal BC tamoxifen patients, higher qPCR PgR was weakly associated with better DFS (P = 0.06). Conclusions: MA.12 pre-menopausal patients in a placebo-controlled tamoxifen trial had similar multivariate prognostic effects with statistically standardized hormone receptors when tumours were assayed by qPCR or IHC, for hormone receptor +/- and + tumours. The BC post-menopausal tamoxifen cohort did not exhibit a significant prognostic association of ER or PgR with DFS. Adjunctive statistical standardization is currently under investigation in other NCIC CTG endocrine trials.

Purpose Cyclophosphamide, epirubicin, and fluorouracil (CEF) and doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide (AC) followed by paclitaxel (T) are commonly used adjuvant regimens in women with early breast cancer. In a previous trial in women with locally advanced breast cancer, 3 months of high-dose epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (EC) administered every 2 weeks (dose-dense) was equivalent to 6 months of CEF. We hypothesized that 3 months of paclitaxel after dose-dense EC (EC/T) would be superior to CEF or AC/T. Methods After lumpectomy or mastectomy, women 60 years of age or younger with axillary node-positive or high-risk node-negative breast cancer were randomly assigned to receive CEF, EC/T, or AC/T for 6 months. This article reports the interim analysis for recurrence-free survival (RFS), which was planned after 227 recurrences. Results A total of 2,104 patients were enrolled. The median follow-up is 30.4 months. Hazard ratios for recurrence are as follows: AC/T versus CEF, 1.49 (95% CI, 1.12 to 1.99), P = .005; AC/T versus EC/T, 1.68 (95% CI, 1.25 to 2.27), P = .0006; and EC/T versus CEF, 0.89 (95% CI, 0.64 to 1.22), P = .46. Three-year RFS rates for CEF, EC/T, and AC/T are 90.1%, 89.5%, and 85.0%, respectively. There was more febrile neutropenia with CEF (22.3%) and EC/T (16.4%) compared with AC/T (4.8%), but more neuropathy with the last two regimens. Conclusion Three-weekly AC/T is significantly inferior to CEF or EC/T in terms of RFS. It is too early to detect any difference between CEF and dose-dense EC/T.

Background Nuclear grade has been associated with breast DCIS recurrence and progression to invasive carcinoma; however, our previous study of a cohort of patients with breast DCIS did not find such an association with outcome. Fifty percent of patients had heterogeneous DCIS with more than one nuclear grade. The aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of quantitative nuclear features assessed with digital image analysis on ipsilateral DCIS recurrence. Methods Hematoxylin and eosin stained slides for a cohort of 80 patients with primary breast DCIS were reviewed and two fields with representative grade (or grades) were identified by a Pathologist and simultaneously used for acquisition of digital images for each field. Van Nuys worst nuclear grade was assigned, as was predominant grade, and heterogeneous grading when present. Patients were grouped by heterogeneity of their nuclear grade: Group A: nuclear grade 1 only, nuclear grades 1 and 2, or nuclear grade 2 only (32 patients), Group B: nuclear grades 1, 2 and 3, or nuclear grades 2 and 3 (31 patients), Group 3: nuclear grade 3 only (17 patients). Nuclear fine structure was assessed by software which captured thirty-nine nuclear feature values describing nuclear morphometry, densitometry, and texture. Step-wise forward Cox regressions were performed with previous clinical and pathologic factors, and the new image analysis features. Results Duplicate measurements were similar for 89.7% to 97.4% of assessed image features. The rate of correct classification of nuclear grading with digital image analysis features was similar in the two fields, and pooled assessment across both fields. In the pooled assessment, a discriminant function with one nuclear morphometric and one texture feature was significantly (p = 0.001) associated with nuclear grading, and provided correct jackknifed classification of a patient's nuclear grade for Group A (78.1%), Group B (48.4%), and Group C (70.6%). The factors significantly associated with DCIS recurrence were those previously found, type of initial presentation (p = 0.03) and amount of parenchymal involvement (p = 0.05), along with the morphometry image feature of ellipticity (p = 0.04). Conclusion Analysis of nuclear features measured by image cytometry may contribute to the classification and prognosis of breast DCIS patients with more than one nuclear grade.

Older women with early-stage breast cancer experience higher rates of non-breast cancer-related death. We examined factors associated with cause-specific death in a large cohort of breast cancer patients treated with extended adjuvant endocrine therapy.In the MA.17 trial, conducted by the National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group, 5170 breast cancer patients (median age = 62 years; range = 32-94 years) who were disease free after approximately 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen treatment were randomly assigned to treatment with letrozole (2583 women) or placebo (2587 women). The median follow-up was 3.9 years (range 0-7 years). We investigated the association of 11 baseline factors with the competing risks of death from breast cancer, other malignancies, and other causes. All statistical tests were two-sided likelihood ratio criterion tests.During follow-up, 256 deaths were reported (102 from breast cancer, 50 from other malignancies, 100 from other causes, and four from an unknown cause). Non-breast cancer deaths accounted for 60% of the 252 known deaths (72% for thoseor = 70 years and 48% for those70 years). Two baseline factors were differentially associated with type of death: cardiovascular disease was associated with a statistically significant increased risk of death from other causes (P.002), and osteoporosis was associated with a statistically significant increased risk of death from other malignancies (P.05). An increased risk of breast cancer-specific death was associated with lymph node involvement (P.001). Increased risk of death from all three causes was associated with older age (P.001).Non-breast cancer-related deaths were more common than breast cancer-specific deaths in this cohort of 5-year breast cancer survivors, especially among older women.

Background In general, prognosis and impact of prognostic/predictive factors are assessed with Kaplan-Meier plots and/or the Cox proportional hazard model. There might be substantive differences from the results using these models for the same patients, if different statistical methods were used, for example, Boag log-normal (cure-rate model), or log-normal survival analysis. Methods Cohort of 244 limited-stage small-cell lung cancer patients, were accrued between 1981 and 1998, and followed to the end of 2005. The endpoint was death with or from lung cancer, for disease-specific survival (DSS). DSS at 1-, 3- and 5-years, with 95% confidence limits, are reported for all patients using the Boag, Kaplan-Meier, Cox, and log-normal survival analysis methods. Factors with significant effects on DSS were identified with step-wise forward multivariate Cox and log-normal survival analyses. Then, DSS was ascertained for patients with specific characteristics defined by these factors. Results The median follow-up of those alive was 9.5 years. The lack of events after 1966 days precluded comparison after 5 years. DSS assessed by the four methods in the full cohort differed by 0–2% at 1 year, 0–12% at 3 years, and 0–1% at 5 years. Log-normal survival analysis indicated DSS of 38% at 3 years, 10–12% higher than with other methods; univariate 95% confidence limits were non-overlapping. Surgical resection, hemoglobin level, lymph node involvement, and superior vena cava (SVC) obstruction significantly impacted DSS. DSS assessed by the Cox and log-normal survival analysis methods for four clinical risk groups differed by 1–6% at 1 year, 15–26% at 3 years, and 0–12% at 5 years; multivariate 95% confidence limits were overlapping in all instances. Conclusion Surgical resection, hemoglobin level, lymph node involvement, and superior vena cava (SVC) obstruction all significantly impacted DSS. Apparent DSS for patients was influenced by the statistical methods of assessment. This would be clinically relevant in the development or improvement of clinical management strategies.

Clinical decisions to administer adjuvant systemic therapy to women with early breast cancer require knowledge about baseline prognosis, which is only assessable in the absence of such adjuvant treatment, which most patients currently do receive. The Cox model is the standard tool for assessing the effect of prognostic factors; however, there may be substantive differences in the estimated prognosis obtained by the Cox model rather than a log-normal model. For more than 50 years, clinical breast cancer data for cohorts of patients have supported the choice of a log-normal model. The prognostic impact of model type is examined here for a cohort of breast cancer patients, only 7% of whom received adjuvant systemic therapy. We quantitated prognosis utilizing Kaplan-Meier, Cox, and log-normal survival analyses for 415 consecutive T1-T3, M0, histologically node-negative patients who were operated on for primary breast cancer at Women's College Hospital between 1977 and 1986. Recurrence outside the breast for disease-free interval (DFI) and breast cancer death for disease-specific survival (DSS) were the events of interest. The patient follow-up for these investigations was 96% complete: a median 8 years for those surviving. Factors used in these investigations were age, weight, tumor size, histology, tumor grade, nuclear grade, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), combined ER/PR receptor, overexpression of neu oncoprotein, DNA ploidy, S-phase, and adjuvant therapy. In our study we found evidence against the Cox assumption of proportional hazards, which is not an assumption for the log-normal approach. We identified patients with greater than 96% and others with less than 40% DSS at 10 years. The difference in prognosis determined by using the Cox versus the log-normal model ranged for DFI from 1.2% to 8.1%, and for DSS from 0.4% to 6.2%; interestingly, the difference was more substantial for patients with a high risk of recurrence or death from breast cancer. Estimated prognoses may differ substantially by survival analysis model type, by amounts that might affect patient management, and we think that the log-normal model has a major advantage over the Cox model for survival analysis.

Introduction Osteopontin (OPN) is a malignancy-associated glycoprotein that contributes functionally to tumor aggressiveness. In metastatic breast cancer, we previously demonstrated that elevated OPN in primary tumor and blood was associated with poor prognosis. Methods We measured OPN in plasma by ELISA, and in tumors by immunohistochemistry, in 624 (94%) and 462 (69%), respectively, of 667 postmenopausal women with hormone responsive early breast cancer treated by surgery followed by adjuvant treatment with tamoxifen +/− octreotide in a randomized trial (NCIC CTG MA.14; National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group Mammary.14). Results Plasma OPN was measured in 2,540 samples; 688 at baseline and 1,852 collected during follow-up. Mean baseline plasma OPN was 46 ng/ml (range 22.6 to 290) which did not differ from normal levels. Mean percentage OPN tumor cell positivity was 33.9 (95% CI: 30.2 to 37.9). There was no correlation between plasma and tumor OPN values. In multivariate analysis, neither was associated with event-free survival (EFS), relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), bone RFS or non-bone RFS. An exploratory analysis in patients with recurrence showed higher mean OPN plasma levels 60.7 ng/ml (23.9 to 543) in the recurrence period compared with baseline levels. Conclusions The hypothesis that OPN tumor expression would have independent prognostic value in early breast cancer was not supported by multivariate analysis of this study population. Plasma OPN levels in women with hormone responsive early breast cancer in the MA.14 trial were not elevated and there was no evidence for prognostic value of plasma OPN in this defined group of patients. However, our finding of elevated mean OPN plasma level around the time of recurrence warrants further study. Trial registration NCT00002864, http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00002864

577 Background: Stromal cell derived-factor 1 (SDF-1) is a chemokine implicated in breast tumor growth and metastasis. Blood SDF-1 levels have a significant prognostic value in primary breast cance...

551 Background: Stromal cell derived-factor 1 (SDF-1) is a chemokine implicated in various aspects of breast tumor growth and metastasis. Blood SDF-1 levels have a significant prognostic value in p...

Background: Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1) has been shown to have diverse multifunctional roles in tumorigenesis. AL/KL/SA postulated from first line metastatic endocrine therapy that elevated pre-treatment serum TIMP-1 required additional therapy. NCIC CTG MA.14 adjuvant endocrine trial permitted examination of whether TIMP-1 serum levels post-chemotherapy was associated with RFS. Methods: NCIC CTG MA.14 is a trial where 667 postmenopausal patients were randomized to receive adjuvant tamoxifen +/- octreotide LAR with a stratification factor of no, concurrent or sequential chemotherapy. For the purposes of this work, this was simplified to whether a patient had or had not received adjuvant chemotherapy prior to the serum draw. Serum TIMP-1 was assessed on >90% of the trial patients. We examined the effect of baseline TIMP-1 levels on relapse-free survival (RFS) of 1) all types, 2) bone only, 3) all types of bone, and 4) non-bone, by timing of chemotherapy before the serum draw utilizing continuous TIMP (ng/ml) and categorical TIMP (454 ng/ml, based on 95% non-parametric cut-point for healthy post-menopausal females). Data were available on patient and tumour characteristics of age (years), pathologic tumour size (cm), pathologic lymph node status (# nodes), IGF-1, C-peptide, IGFBP-3. Step-wise forward Cox multivariate models were used where a factor was added if p Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(24 Suppl):Abstract nr 3022.

591 Background: A favorable “soil” has been suggested as an important factor for the growth of cancer cells. In this study, the ability of pretreatment serum beta C-terminal telopeptide (B-CTx) of type I collagen, a marker of bone resorption, to predict breast cancer relapse in bone was investigated in a randomized adjuvant breast cancer trial. Methods: Serum B-CTx concentration (Serum CrossLaps, Nordic Biosciences, Copenhagen, DN) was determined in pretreatment serum from 621 of 667 primary breast cancer patients enrolled in the NCIC CTG MA.14 phase III adjuvant clinical trial of tamoxifen (20 mg po daily, 323 pts.) ± octreotide (90 mg mo. for 2 years, 298 pts.) which has recently had its final analysis. Stratification was by administration of adjuvant chemotherapy, axillary lymph node status, and ER and/or PR status. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was a secondary endpoint defined as the time from randomization to the time of recurrence of the primary disease alone; the focus here was bone-only recurrenc...

532 Background: Our preclinical data (Cancer Res. 54:6334,1994) suggested mechanisms involving insulin/IGF physiology by which a somatostatin analogue + tam combination might be superior to tam alone for adjuvant BC therapy. Methods: In 1996, we began a Phase 3 trial randomizing stage I or II postmenopausal BC patients to tam 20mg daily for 5 yr with or without oct (monthly 90mg depot injection) for 5 yr, later reduced to 2 yr due to concern regarding cholelithiasis. Stratification factors included adjuvant chemotherapy, axillary nodal status, and ER status. Primary endpoint was event-free survival (EFS), defined as time from randomization to recurrence, second malignancy, or death due to any cause, assessed with the adjusted log-rank test statistic and an adjusted step-wise forward Cox regression. Objectives included studies of relevant biomarkers in relation to treatment and outcomes. Results: 667 women were accrued (333 to tam, 334 to tam +oct), with a median follow-up of 7.9 years and 220 events: 112 ...

Background Previously, 50% of patients with breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) had more than one nuclear grade, and neither worst nor predominant nuclear grade was significantly associated with development of invasive carcinoma. Here, we used image analysis in addition to histologic evaluation to determine if quantification of nuclear features could provide additional prognostic information and hence impact prognostic assessments. Methods Nuclear image features were extracted from about 200 nuclei of each of 80 patients with DCIS who underwent lumpectomy alone, and received no adjuvant systemic therapy. Nuclear images were obtained from 20 representative nuclei per duct, from each of a group of 5 ducts, in two separate fields, for 10 ducts. Reproducibility of image analysis features was determined, as was the ability of features to discriminate between nuclear grades. Patient information was available about clinical factors (age and method of DCIS detection), pathologic factors (DCIS size, nuclear grade, margin size, and amount of parenchymal involvement), and 39 image features (morphology, densitometry, and texture). The prognostic effects of these factors and features on the development of invasive breast cancer were examined with Cox step-wise multivariate regression. Results Duplicate measurements were similar for 89.7% to 97.4% of assessed image features. For the pooled assessment with ~200 nuclei per patient, a discriminant function with one densitometric and two texture features was significantly (p < 0.001) associated with nuclear grading, and provided 78.8% correct jackknifed classification of a patient's nuclear grade. In multivariate assessments, image analysis nuclear features had significant prognostic associations (p ≤ 0.05) with the development of invasive breast cancer. Texture (difference entropy, p < 0.001; contrast, p < 0.001; peak transition probability, p = 0.01), densitometry (range density, p = 0.004), and measured margin (p = 0.05) were associated with development of invasive disease for the pooled data across all ducts. Conclusion Image analysis provided reproducible assessments of nuclear features which quantitated differences in nuclear grading for patients. Quantitative nuclear image features indicated prognostically significant differences in DCIS, and may contribute additional information to prognostic assessments of which patients are likely to develop invasive disease.