1. Is the 1-day surprise question a useful screening tool for predicting prognosis in patients with advanced cancer?—a multicenter prospective observational study
- Author
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Kiyofumi Oya, Tomohiko Taniyama, Masanori Mori, Yu Uneno, Koji Amano, Akira Inoue, Tomoo Ikari, Takuhiro Yamaguchi, Keita Tagami, Yusuke Hiratsuka, and Yosuke Matsuda
- Subjects
Advanced and Specialized Nursing ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Multivariate analysis ,Percutaneous ,business.industry ,Palliative Care ,Cancer ,Prognosis ,medicine.disease ,Confidence interval ,Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine ,Neoplasms ,Internal medicine ,Positive predicative value ,medicine ,Humans ,In patient ,Screening tool ,Observational study ,Prospective Studies ,business ,Early Detection of Cancer - Abstract
BACKGROUND For cancer patients nearing death, the prediction of their prognosis by physicians is crucial. This study examined the usefulness of the 1-Day Surprise Question (1DSQ). METHODS This study was conducted as part of a multicenter prospective observational study. The physicians answered the 1DSQ "Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next 1 day?" when patients have palliative performance scale (PPS) ≤20. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of the 1DSQ. Moreover, using multivariate analysis, we evaluated the characteristics of patients who died among those whose physicians answered the 1DSQ as "not surprised". RESULTS Overall, 1,896 patients were enrolled, and 1411 (74.4%) were analyzed between January and December 2017. Among these, 847 (60.0%) patients were placed in the "not surprised" group. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the 1DSQ were 82.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 77.5-85.8%], 45.5% (95% CI: 44.4-46.4%), 27.4% (95% CI: 25.9-28.7%), and 91.0% (95% CI: 88.9-92.9%), respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that urine output over last 12 hours
- Published
- 2021