1. Risk Stratification Based on Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation Score in Patients With Child‐Pugh B Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Bleeding
- Author
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Xulong Yuan, Chunqing Zhang, Kai Li, Chuangye He, Jun-Hui Sun, Zhiping Yang, Jianbo Zhao, Peng-Xu Ding, Ying Zhu, Wengang Guo, Yuzheng Zhuge, Weixin Ren, Bohan Luo, Wei Bai, Zhanxin Yin, Kewei Zhang, Zhengyu Wang, Qiuhe Wang, Tianlei Yu, Xuan Zhu, Yong Lv, Na Han, Zai-bo Jiang, Guohong Han, Wenguang Zhang, Jing Niu, Hui Xue, Jie Yuan, Yingchun Li, Xiaomei Li, and Daiming Fan
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Cirrhosis ,Hepatology ,business.industry ,Standard treatment ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Nomogram ,medicine.disease ,Gastroenterology ,03 medical and health sciences ,030104 developmental biology ,0302 clinical medicine ,Internal medicine ,Ascites ,medicine ,Risk of mortality ,Portal hypertension ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,Decompensation ,medicine.symptom ,business ,Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt - Abstract
Background and aims Optimal candidates for early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) remain unclear. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that risk stratification using the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) may be useful to identify a subgroup at high risk of mortality or further bleeding that may benefit from early TIPS in patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB. Approach and results We analyzed the pooled individual data from two previous studies of 608 patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB who received standard treatment between 2010 and 2017 in China. The concordance index values of CLIF-C ADs for 6-week and 1-year mortality (0.715 and 0.708) were significantly better than those of active bleeding at endoscopy (0.633 [P 56), with a 5.6%, 16.8%, and 25.4% risk of 6-week death, respectively. Nevertheless, the performance of CLIF-C ADs for predicting a composite endpoint of 6-week death or further bleeding was not satisfactory (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.588). A nomogram incorporating components of CLIF-C ADs and albumin, platelet, active bleeding, and ascites significantly improved the prediction accuracy (AUC, 0.725). Conclusions In patients with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB, risk stratification using CLIF-C ADs identifies a subgroup with high risk of death that may derive survival benefit from early TIPS. With improved prediction accuracy for 6-week death or further bleeding, the data-driven nomogram may help to stratify patients in randomized trials. Future external validation of these findings in patients with different etiologies is required.
- Published
- 2021