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The pattern and magnitude of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration greatly differ across climate models in particular due to differences in the representation of oceanic processes. Here, we investigate the response of the AMOC to an idealized climate change scenario, along with the drivers of this response, in the three configurations of a coupled climate model suite with varying resolutions in the ocean (1°, 0.25°, 0.10°). In response to the CO2 increase, the AMOC shows a reduction of similar magnitude in the low and high resolutions, while a muted response is found in the medium resolution. A decomposition of the AMOC into its geostrophic and residual components reveals that most of the AMOC reduction is due to a weakening of the geostrophic streamfunction driven by temperature anomalies, partly opposed by a strengthening of the geostrophic streamfunction driven by salinity anomalies. Changes in the AMOC due to the mesoscale eddy streamfunction contribute to 13% and 17% of the AMOC decline in the low and high resolutions, respectively, but induce very little change in the medium resolution. The similar response of the AMOC strength in the low and high resolutions hides important differences in the contribution and pattern of the geostrophic and eddy streamfunctions. The lack of sensitivity of the medium resolution to the CO2 forcing is due to a weak connection between the deep water formation regions in the northern subpolar gyre and the Deep Western Boundary Current. Significance Statement: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major system of ocean currents in the Atlantic that contributes to shaping the climate at regional and global scales, notably through the transport of heat from the low to the high latitudes. A major slowdown of the AMOC over the twenty-first century is predicted by current climate models in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Yet, the magnitude and timing of this slowdown are uncertain. The purpose of this study is to investigate the expected weakening of the AMOC using state-of-the-art numerical climate models that include higher resolutions than typically used in climate change assessments. Our results provide insights into the mechanisms driving the weakening of the AMOC and into differences arising from model resolutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work aims to clarify the relation between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the thermal wind. We derive a new and generic dynamical AMOC decomposition that expresses the thermal wind transport as a simple vertical integral function of eastern minus western boundary densities. This allows us to express density anomalies at any depth as a geostrophic transport in Sverdrups (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) per meter and to predict that density anomalies around the depth of maximum overturning induce most AMOC transport. We then apply this formalism to identify the dynamical drivers of the centennial AMOC variability in the CNRM-CM6 climate model. The dynamical reconstruction and specifically the thermal wind component explain over 80% of the low-frequency AMOC variance at all latitudes, which is therefore almost exclusively driven by density anomalies at both zonal boundaries. This transport variability is dominated by density anomalies between depths of 500 and 1500 m, in agreement with theoretical predictions. At those depths, southward-propagating western boundary temperature anomalies induce the centennial geostrophic AMOC transport variability in the North Atlantic. They are originated along the western boundary of the subpolar gyre through the Labrador Sea deep convection and the Davis Strait overflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in redistributing heat and salt throughout the global oceans. Achieving a more complete understanding of the behavior of the AMOC system requires a comprehensive observational network that spans the entire Atlantic basin. This article describes several different types of observational systems that are used by scientists of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and their partners at other national and international institutions to study the complex nature of the AMOC. The article also highlights several emerging technologies that will aid AMOC studies in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decadal prediction experiments were conducted as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using the GFDL Climate Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1) forecast system. The abrupt warming of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) that was observed in the mid-1990s is considered as a case study to evaluate forecast capabilities and better understand the reasons for the observed changes. Initializing the CM2.1 coupled system produces high skill in retrospectively predicting the mid-1990s shift, which is not captured by the uninitialized forecasts. All the hindcasts initialized in the early 1990s show a warming of the SPG; however, only the ensemble-mean hindcasts initialized in 1995 and 1996 are able to reproduce the observed abrupt warming and the associated decrease and contraction of the SPG. Examination of the physical mechanisms responsible for the successful retrospective predictions indicates that initializing the ocean is key to predicting the mid-1990s warming. The successful initialized forecasts show an increased Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Current transport, which drive an increased advection of warm saline subtropical waters northward, leading to a westward shift of the subpolar front and, subsequently, a warming and spindown of the SPG. Significant seasonal climate impacts are predicted as the SPG warms, including a reduced sea ice concentration over the Arctic, an enhanced warming over the central United States during summer and fall, and a northward shift of the mean ITCZ. These climate anomalies are similar to those observed during a warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which is encouraging for future predictions of North Atlantic climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the highlights of the 2013 U.S. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)-Great Britain Rapid International Science Meeting that took place in Baltimore, Maryland on July 16-19. In 2007, the AMOC was established to promote research and offer observational estimates of the AMOC-climate connection. An overview of the first joint workshop of AMOC and the British Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) scientists in Bristol, England in 2011 is also presented.

The subpolar North Atlantic is a center of variability of ocean properties, wind stress curl, and air-sea exchanges. Observations and hindcast simulations suggest that from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre became fresher while the gyre and meridional circulations intensified. This is opposite to the relationship of freshening causing a weakened circulation, most often reproduced by climate models. The authors hypothesize that both these configurations exist but dominate on different time scales: a fresher subpolar gyre when the circulation is more intense, at interannual frequencies (configuration A), and a saltier subpolar gyre when the circulation is more intense, at longer periods (configuration B). Rather than going into the detail of the mechanisms sustaining each configuration, the authors' objective is to identify which configuration dominates and to test whether this depends on frequency, in preindustrial control runs of five climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To this end, the authors have developed a novel intercomparison method that enables analysis of freshwater budget and circulation changes in a physical perspective that overcomes model specificities. Lag correlations and a cross-spectral analysis between freshwater content changes and circulation indices validate the authors' hypothesis, as configuration A is only visible at interannual frequencies while configuration B is mostly visible at decadal and longer periods, suggesting that the driving role of salinity on the circulation depends on frequency. Overall, this analysis underscores the large differences among state-of-the-art climate models in their representations of the North Atlantic freshwater budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric circulation response to decadal fluctuations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the IPSL climate model is investigated using the associated sea surface temperature signature. A SST anomaly is prescribed in sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric component of the IPSL model coupled to a slab ocean. The prescribed SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is the surface signature of the MOC influence on the atmosphere detected in the coupled simulation. It follows a maximum of the MOC by a few years and resembles the model Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. It is mainly characterized by a warming of the North Atlantic south of Iceland, and a cooling of the Nordic Seas. There are substantial seasonal variations in the geopotential height response to the prescribed SST anomaly, with an East Atlantic Pattern-like response in summer and a North Atlantic oscillation-like signal in winter. In summer, the response of the atmosphere is global in scale, resembling the climatic impact detected in the coupled simulation, albeit with a weaker amplitude. The zonally asymmetric or eddy part of the response is characterized by a trough over warm SST associated with changes in the stationary waves. A diagnostic analysis with daily data emphasizes the role of transient-eddy forcing in shaping and maintaining the equilibrium response. We show that in response to an intensified MOC, the North Atlantic storm tracks are enhanced and shifted northward during summer, consistent with a strengthening of the westerlies. However the anomalous response is weak, which suggests a statistically significant but rather modest influence of the extratropical SST on the atmosphere. The winter response to the MOC-induced North Atlantic warming is an intensification of the subtropical jet and a southward shift of the Atlantic storm track activity, resulting in an equatorward shift of the polar jet. Although the SST anomaly is only prescribed in the Atlantic ocean, significant impacts are found globally, indicating that the Atlantic ocean can drive a large scale atmospheric variability at decadal timescales. The atmospheric response is highly non-linear in both seasons and is consistent with the strong interaction between transient eddies and the mean flow. This study emphasizes that decadal fluctuations of the MOC can affect the storm tracks in both seasons and lead to weak but significant dynamical changes in the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanisms controlling the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and its influence on the atmosphere are investigated using a control simulation with the IPSL-CM4 climate model. The multidecadal fluctuations of the MOC are mostly driven by deep convection in the subpolar gyre, which occurs south of Iceland in the model. The latter is primarily influenced by the anomalous advection of salinity due to changes in the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), which is the second mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode, but it plays a secondary role in the MOC fluctuations. During summer, the MOC variability is shown to have a significant impact on the atmosphere in the North Atlantic–European sector. The MOC influence is due to an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with opposite signs in the two hemispheres but largest amplitude in the northern one. The SST pattern driven by the MOC mostly resembles the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and bears some similarity with the observed one. It is shown that the AMO reflects both the MOC influence and the local atmospheric forcing. Hence, the MOC influence on climate is best detected using lagged relations between climatic fields. The atmospheric response resembles the EAP, in a phase that might induce a weak positive feedback on the MOC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Connections between the interdecadal variability in North Atlantic temperatures and biological cycling have been widely hypothesized. However, it is unclear whether such connections are due to small changes in basin-averaged temperatures indicated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index, or whether both biological cycling and the AMO index are causally linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examine interdecadal variability in the annual and month-by-month diatom biomass in two Earth System Models with the same formulations of atmospheric, land, sea ice and ocean biogeochemical dynamics but different formulations of ocean physics and thus different AMOC structures and variability. In the isopycnal-layered ESM2G, strong interdecadal changes in surface salinity associated with changes in AMOC produce spatially heterogeneous variability in convection, nutrient supply and thus diatom biomass. These changes also produce changes in ice cover, shortwave absorption and temperature and hence the AMO Index. Off West Greenland, these changes are consistent with observed changes in fisheries and support climate as a causal driver. In the level-coordinate ESM2M, nutrient supply is much higher and interdecadal changes in diatom biomass are much smaller in amplitude and not strongly linked to the AMO index. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]