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The Bay Area of California and surrounding region receives much of its annual precipitation during the October–March wet season, when atmospheric river events bring periods of heavy rain that challenge water managers and may exceed the capacity of storm sewer systems. The complex terrain of this region further complicates the situation, with terrain interactions that are not currently captured in most operational forecast models and inadequate precipitation measurements to capture the large variability throughout the area. To improve monitoring and prediction of these events at spatial and temporal resolutions of interest to area water managers, the Bay Area Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information project was developed. To quantify improvements in forecast precipitation, model validation studies require a reference dataset to compare against. In this paper we examine 10 gridded, high-resolution (≤10 km, hourly) precipitation estimates to assess the uncertainty of high-resolution quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) in areas of complex terrain. The products were linearly interpolated to 3-km grid spacing, which is the resolution of the operational forecast model to be validated. Substantial differences exist between the various products at accumulation periods ranging from hourly to annual, with standard deviations among the products exceeding 100% of the mean. While the products seem to agree fairly well on the timing of precipitation, intensity estimates differ, sometimes by an order of magnitude. The results highlight both the need for additional observations and the need to account for uncertainty in the reference dataset when validating forecasts in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a flexible Bayesian technique to quantify uncertainties associated with the operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products over complex terrain. Radar-only rainfall estimates and rain gauge observations over the Russian River watershed in Northern California are utilized to demonstrate this new bias correction approach. Conventional mean field bias (MFB) and local bias (LB) correction methods are also implemented for comparison purposes. Results show that the proposed Bayesian technique outperforms the conventional MFB and LB correction approaches. The radar QPE performance is dramatically improved after the Bayesian-based bias correction: the root-mean-square error is reduced from 4.2 to 1.71 mm, the normalized mean absolute error is reduced from 64.5% to 24.2%, and the correlation with gauge measurements increases from 0.11 to 0.74. In addition, the terrain impact on radar QPE bias correction performance is investigated. After incorporating the terrain elevation information in the Bayesian framework, the QPE performance is further enhanced. Overall, the QPE performance scores after including the terrain information are improved about 10% relative to those only based on rainfall intensity values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study on the impact of hydroclimatic extremes on water management and flood management systems in the U.S. A graph is presented on the average recurrence interval (ARI) of precipitation associated with Hurricane Harvey. Also discussed are rainfall forecasts for the Hurricane Harvey based on geographic distribution.

An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water vapor and water vapor transport fields are compared between the U.S. West Coast (WCUS) and the SEUS, highlighting stronger seasonal variation in integrated water vapor in the SEUS and stronger seasonal variation in IVT in the WCUS. The climatological analysis suggests that IVT values above ~500 kg m−1 s−1 (as incorporated into an objective identification tool such as the AR detection tool used here) may serve as a sensible threshold for defining ARs in the SEUS. Atmospheric river impacts on heavy precipitation in the SEUS are shown to vary on an annual cycle, and a connection between ARs and heavy precipitation during the nonsummer months is demonstrated. When identified ARs are matched to heavy precipitation days (>100 mm day−1), an average match rate of ~41% is found. Results suggest that some aspects of an AR identification framework in the SEUS may offer benefit in forecasting heavy precipitation, particularly at medium- to longer-range forecast lead times. However, the relatively high frequency of SEUS heavy precipitation cases in which an AR is not identified necessitates additional careful consideration and incorporation of other critical aspects of heavy precipitation environments such that significant predictive skill might eventually result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]