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The dynamical context and moisture transport pathways embedded in large-scale flow and associated with a heavy precipitation event (HPE) in southern Italy (SI) are investigated with the help of stable water isotopes (SWIs) based on a purely numerical framework. The event occurred during the Intensive Observation Period (IOP) 13 of the field campaign of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) on 15 and 16 October 2012, and SI experienced intense rainfall of 62.4 mm over 27 h with two precipitation phases during this event. The first one (P1) was induced by convective precipitation ahead of a cold front, while the second one (P2) was mainly associated with precipitation induced by large-scale uplift. The moisture transport and processes responsible for the HPE are analysed using a simulation with the isotope-enabled regional numerical model COSMO iso. The simulation at a horizontal grid spacing of about 7 km over a large domain (about 4300 km ×3500 km) allows the isotopes signal to be distinguished due to local processes or large-scale advection. Backward trajectory analyses based on this simulation show that the air parcels arriving in SI during P1 originate from the North Atlantic and descend within an upper-level trough over the north-western Mediterranean. The descending air parcels reach elevations below 1 km over the sea and bring dry and isotopically depleted air (median δ18O ≤-25 ‰, water vapour mixing ratio q≤2 g kg -1) close to the surface, which induces strong surface evaporation. These air parcels are rapidly enriched in SWIs (δ18O ≥-14 ‰) and moistened (q≥8 g kg -1) over the Tyrrhenian Sea by taking up moisture from surface evaporation and potentially from evaporation of frontal precipitation. Thereafter, the SWI-enriched low-level air masses arriving upstream of SI are convectively pumped to higher altitudes, and the SWI-depleted moisture from higher levels is transported towards the surface within the downdrafts ahead of the cold front over SI, producing a large amount of convective precipitation in SI. Most of the moisture processes (i.e. evaporation, convective mixing) related to the HPE take place during the 18 h before P1 over SI. A period of 4 h later, during the second precipitation phase P2, the air parcels arriving over SI mainly originate from north Africa. The strong cyclonic flow around the eastward-moving upper-level trough induces the advection of a SWI-enriched African moisture plume towards SI and leads to large-scale uplift of the warm air mass along the cold front. This lifts moist and SWI-enriched air (median δ18O ≥-16 ‰, median q≥6 g kg -1) and leads to gradual rain out of the air parcels over Italy. Large-scale ascent in the warm sector ahead of the cold front takes place during the 72 h preceding P2 in SI. This work demonstrates how stable water isotopes can yield additional insights into the variety of thermodynamic mechanisms occurring at the mesoscale and synoptic scale during the formation of a HPE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examines the impact of the environmental moisture structure in the lower troposphere (below 2 km above sea level, a.s.l.) on the precipitation development, observed in southern France during Intensive Observation Period (IOP) 13 of the first Special Observation Period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX SOP-1), through a series of sensitivity experiments using the non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric numerical model (Meso-NH). The control simulation (CNTL) and all the other 12 sensitivity experiments examined in this study succeed in reproducing a heavy precipitation event (HPE) in the coastal mountainous region of Var in south-eastern France as observed. The sensitivity experiments are designed to investigate the response of the HPE to the variability of the water vapour content upstream in the moist marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) and the drier air above. The comparisons between CNTL and the 12 sensitivity experiments show how the life cycle of precipitation associated with the HPE, but also the upstream flow (over the sea), is modified, even for moisture content changes of only 1 g kg -1 below 2 km a.s.l. Within the low-level wind convergence between southerlies and south-westerlies, a small increase of moisture content in the MABL prolongs moderate precipitation (≥5 mm in 15 min) and enlarges the area of weak precipitation (≥1 mm in 15 min). The moistening in the 1–2 km a.s.l. layer, just above the MABL, prolongs the duration of moderate precipitation, for a similar total precipitation amount as in CNTL. The drier MABL and 1–2 km a.s.l. layer shorten the lifetime of precipitation and reduce the total precipitation amount with respect to CNTL. We also found that the moisture in the MABL has a stronger impact on producing enhanced precipitation (both in terms of amount and intensity) than the moisture just above (1–2 km a.s.l.). Also, it is worth noting that adding moisture in the MABL does not necessarily lead to enhanced precipitation amount. In moistening the MABL, the duration of moderate precipitation increases with increasing moisture as does the area covered by weak precipitation, while the area covered by the intense precipitation (≥30 mm) decreases. Despite a simplified moisture-profile modification approach, this study suggests that moisture structure in the lower troposphere is key for accurate prediction at short-term range of the timing and location of precipitation in the coastal mountainous region in southern France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deployment of special instrumentation for the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) provides a valuable opportunity to investigate the spatio‐temporal variability of atmospheric water vapour across scales in relationship with the occurrence of Heavy Precipitation Systems (HPSs) in the north Western Mediterranean (WMed) during the Intensive Observation Period (IOP12), which is the focus of this investigation. High‐resolution convection‐permitting COSMO simulations complement the observational network and allow the calculation of on‐line trajectories. In addition to the presence of a favourable large‐scale situation and low‐level convergence, atmospheric moisture changes resulting in conditionally unstable air are identified as responsible for convective initiation (CI). All HPSs within the north‐WMed form in periods/areas of maximum integrated water vapour (IWV; 35–45 kg/m2) after an increase of about 10–20 kg/m2. The most intense events receive moisture from different sources simultaneously and show a sudden increase of about 10 kg/m2 between 6 and 12 h prior to the event, whereas in the less intense events the increase is larger, about 20 kg/m2, over a period of at least 24–36 h. Changes in the lower (∼900 hPa) and mid‐troposphere (∼700 hPa) control the evolution of the atmospheric moisture and the instability increase prior to CI. Spatial inhomogeneities in the lower boundary layer determine the timing and location of deep convection, whereas enhanced moisture in the mid‐troposphere favours intensification. Moister and deeper boundary layers, with updraughts reaching up to 2 km are identified in those pre‐convective environments leading to HPS, whereas dry, shallow boundary layers are found everywhere else. The build‐up time and vertical distribution of the moisture changes are found to be crucial for the evolution and severity of the HPSs rather than the amount of total column atmospheric moisture. This article investigates the spatio‐temporal variability of atmospheric water vapour across scales in relation to the occurrence of heavy precipitation systems in the northwestern Mediterranean. Synergies between different instruments, Global Positioning System (GPS) stations, radiosondes, airborne and ground‐based lidars and space‐borne observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), among others, are used. High‐resolution convection‐permitting simulations complement the observational network. Daily mean spatial distribution of total column integrated water vapour (IWV) from MODIS (background) and GPS (circles) observations. Simulated COSMO‐7km and COSMO‐2.8km 950 hPa winds at 1200 UTC are superimposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the West African monsoon (WAM) dynamics in the mid-Holocene (MH) is a crucial issue in climate modeling, because numerical models typically fail to reproduce the extensive precipitation suggested by proxy evidence. This discrepancy may be largely due to the assumption of both unrealistic land surface cover and atmospheric aerosol concentration. In this study, the MH environment is simulated in numerical experiments by imposing extensive vegetation over the Sahara and the consequent reduction in airborne dust concentration. A dramatic increase in precipitation is simulated across the whole of West Africa, up to the Mediterranean coast. This precipitation response is in better agreement with proxy data, in comparison with the case in which only changes in orbital forcing are considered. Results show a substantial modification of the monsoonal circulation, characterized by an intensification of large-scale deep convection through the entire Sahara, and a weakening and northward shift (~6.5°) of the African easterly jet. The greening of the Sahara also leads to a substantial reduction in the African easterly wave activity and associated precipitation. The reorganization of the regional atmospheric circulation is driven by the vegetation effect on radiative forcing and associated heat fluxes, with the reduction in dust concentration to enhance this response. The results for the WAM in the MH present important implications for understanding future climate scenarios in the region and in teleconnected areas, in the context of projected wetter conditions in West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability associated with the West African monsoon (WAM) has important environmental and socio-economic impacts in the region. However, state-of-the-art climate models still struggle in producing reliable climate predictions. An important cause of this low predictive skill is the sensitivity of climate models to different forcings. In this study, the mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO forcing are investigated, by comparing the effect of the CO direct radiative effect with its indirect effect mediated by the global sea surface warming. The July-to-September WAM variability is studied in climate simulations extracted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive, driven by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). The individual roles of global SST warming and CO atmospheric concentration increase are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4 K warmer SST and a quadrupled CO concentration, respectively. Results show opposite and competing responses in the WAM dynamics and precipitation. A dry response (−0.6 mm/day) to the SST warming is simulated in the Sahel, with dryer conditions over western Sahel (−0.8 mm/day). Conversely, the CO increase produces wet conditions (+0.5 mm/day) in the Sahel, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel (+0.7 mm/day). The associated responses in the atmospheric dynamics are also analysed, showing that the SST warming affects the Sahelian precipitation through modifications in the global tropical atmospheric dynamics, reducing the importance of the regional drivers, while the CO increase reinforces the coupling between precipitation and regional dynamics. A general agreement in model responses demonstrates the robustness of the identified mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO direct and indirect forcing, and indicates that these primary mechanisms are captured by climate models. Results also suggest that the spread in future projections may be caused by unbalanced model responses to the CO direct and indirect forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Saharan heat low (SHL) plays a pivotal role in the West African monsoon system in spring and summer. The recent trend in SHL activity has been analysed using two sets of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model reanalyses and Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project simulations from 15 climate models performed in the framework of the 5th Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) exercise. A local increase of temperature in the Sahara during the 90s is found in the two sets of NWP models temperature. This increase is stronger within the SHL region than over the surrounding areas. Using different temporal filters (under 25 days, 25-100 days and above 300 days), we show that this is accompanied by a slight but widespread increase of temperature, and a change in the filtered signal under 25 days during the transition period of the 90s. We also show that SHL pulsations occurring at different time scales impact the West Africa climate on a variety of spatial scales, from the regional scale (for the high band pass) to the synoptic scale (for the low band pass signal). Despite a large variability in the temporal trends for 15 climate models from the CMIP5 project, the warming trend in the 90s is observed in the models ensemble mean. Nevertheless, large discrepancies are found between the NWP models reanalyses and the climate model simulations regarding the spatial and temporal evolutions of the SHL as well as its impact on West African climate at the different time scales. These comparisons also reveal that climate models represent the West African monsoon interactions with SHL pulsations quite differently. We provide recommendations to use some of them depending on the time scales of the processes at play (synoptic, seasonal, interannual) and based on key SHL metrics (location, mean intensity, global trend, interaction with the West African monsoon dynamics). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two deep cyclones occurred in the Mediterranean between 25 and 31 October 2012, during the first Special Observation Period (SOP1) of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX). Both cyclones were associated with extreme rainfall covering a large part of the western Mediterranean Sea, where 24 h accumulated precipitation measurements exceeded 150 mm. We combine complementary observations from airborne radar and lidar systems, ZEUS lightning detection network and meteorological surface stations along with satellite diagnostics on deep convection, for a detailed microphysics and (thermo-)dynamical analysis of the two extreme rainfall cases. In addition, we use operational analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for analysing the synoptic conditions and diagnosing strongly ascending air masses in the vicinity of the cyclones, so-called warm conveyor belts (WCBs). The analysis revealed the different physical characteristics of the two cyclones responsible for the extreme rainfalls. Both cyclones were associated with a WCB and a comma cloud, but deep convection, intense lightning and very cold cloud tops occurred only for the first case while the second cyclone was mostly associated with stratiform rainfall, a strong WCB, and only a few embedded cells of deep convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to the special issue on "Advances in understanding and forecasting of heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean through the Hydrological Cycle in Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) field campaign" is presented.

Water vapor measurements with the multiwavelength Raman lidar Backscatter Extinction Lidar-Ratio Temperature Humidity Profiling Apparatus (BERTHA) were performed during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) in the Black Forest, Germany, from June to August 2007. For quality assurance, profiles of the water vapor mixing ratio measured with BERTHA are compared to simultaneous measurements of a radiosonde and an airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) on 31 July 2007. The differences from the radiosonde observations are found to be on average 1.5%% and 2.5%% in the residual layer and in the free troposphere, respectively. During the two overflights at 1937 and 2018 UTC, the differences from the DIAL results are −2.2%% and −3.7%% in the residual layer and 2.1%% and −2.6%% in the free troposphere. After this performance check, short-range forecasts from the German Meteorological Service's (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) version of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO-DE) model are compared to the BERTHA measurements for two case studies. Generally, it is found that water vapor mixing ratios from short-range forecasts are on average 7.9%% drier than the values measured in the residual layer. In the free troposphere, modeled values are 9.7%% drier than the measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the convective and orographically induced precipitation study (COPS) conducted by the World Weather Research Program. This research and development project aims to improve quantitative precipitation forecasting in low-mountain regions. It says that two prominent systematic errors of the state-of-the-art mesoscale models are identified in the study. COPS has three basic components which include the synergy of unique in situ and remote-sensing instruments on different platforms, the advanced high-resolution models with data assimilation capabilities, and data assimilation and ensemble prediction systems.