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Predictability of East Asian cold surges is studied using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Prediction skills of the CFSv2 in forecasting cold surges, their annual variation, and their physical links to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns are examined. Results show that the climatological characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon can be reasonably reproduced by the CFSv2. The model can well capture the frequency, intensity, and location of cold surges at a lead time of about two weeks. Obviously, fewer-than-observed cold surge days are found in the predictions when the lead time is above 14 days. The spatiotemporal evolutions of high-, mid-, and low-level circulation patterns during cold surge occurrences are all accurately indicated in the CFSv2 prediction. Except for precipitation, the other variables associated with cold surges, such as geopotential height, wind, sea level pressure, and surface air temperature, exhibit higher skills. The lead time of skillful prediction of precipitation is limited to around 1 week, with systematic wet biases over the South China Sea, the Philippine Islands, and the northwest Pacific, but dry biases over India, the Indo-China Peninsula, and most high-latitude regions. Wave train-like patterns of geopotential height and wind differ distinguishably when cold surges occur in northern and southern regions (using 35°N as the dividing line), and the CFSv2 gives a consistent prediction to these anomalous patterns. A weaker-than-observed Siberian high and weaker northerly winds over eastern China are found in the predictions especially at longer lead times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report, the broad-scale features of precipitation as simulated by Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are in modest agreement with observations, however, large systematic errors are found in the Tropics. In this study, a new algorithm has been developed to define the North Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) through several metrics, including: the centerline position of the ITCZ, the width of the ITCZ, and the magnitude of precipitation along the defined ITCZ. These metrics provide a quantitative analysis of precipitation associated with the ITCZ over the equatorial northern Pacific. Results from 29 CMIP5 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) Global Circulation Model (GCM) runs are compared with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Similarities and differences between the GCM simulations and observations are analyzed with the intent of quantifying magnitude-, location-, and width-based biases within the GCMs. Comparisons show that most of the GCMs tend to simulate a stronger, wider ITCZ shifted slightly northward compared to the ITCZ in GPCP and TRMM observations. Comparisons of CMIP and AMIP simulated precipitation using like-models were found to be nearly equally distributed, with roughly half of GCMs showing an increase (decrease) in precipitation when coupled (decoupled) from their respective ocean model. Further study is warranted to understand these differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a strategy for merging daily precipitation information from gauge observations, satellite estimates (SEs), and numerical predictions at the global scale. The strategy is designed to remove systemic bias and random error from each individual daily precipitation source to produce a better gridded global daily precipitation product through three steps. First, a cumulative distribution function matching procedure is performed to remove systemic bias over gauge-located land areas. Then, the overall biases in SEs and model predictions (MPs) over ocean areas are corrected using a rescaled strategy based on monthly precipitation. Third, an optimal interpolation (OI)-based merging scheme (referred as the HL-OI scheme) is used to combine unbiased gauge observations, SEs, and MPs to reduce random error from each source and to produce a gauge-satellite-model merged daily precipitation analysis, called BMEP-d (Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation with daily resolution), with complete global coverage. The BMEP-d data from a four-year period (2011-14) demonstrate the ability of the merging strategy to provide global daily precipitation of substantially improved quality. Benefiting from the advantages of the HL-OI scheme for quantitative error estimates, the better source data can obtain more weights during the merging processes. The BMEP-d data exhibit higher consistency with satellite and gauge source data at middle and low latitudes, and with model source data at high latitudes. Overall, independent validations against GPCP-1DD (GPCP one-degree daily) show that the consistencies between BMEP-d and GPCP-1DD are higher than those of each source dataset in terms of spatial pattern, temporal variability, probability distribution, and statistical precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Deterministic Time-lagged Ensemble Forecast using a Probabilistic Threshold (DEFPT) method is suggested for improving summer 6–15 day categorical precipitation prediction in China from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.1 (BCC_AGCM2.1). It is based on a time-lagged ensemble system that consists of 13 ensemble members separated sequentially at 6 hour intervals lagging the last three days. The DEFPT is not intended to predict the probability of rainfall, but rather to forecast rainfall (yes/no) occurrence for different categories of precipitation at any model grid box. A given categorical precipitation is forecasted to occur at one gridbox only when the ensemble probability for that categorical precipitation exceeds a certain threshold. This method is useful for providing an estimate of whether precipitation events will occur to decision-makers based on probabilistic forecasts during days 6–15. A large number of hindcast experiments for 1996–2005 summers reveal that this threshold can be best (and empirically) set as 5/13 and 4/13 respectively for the 6–15 day prediction of 1 + mm (i.e., above 1 mm per day) and 5 + mm rainfall events, using the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, the Equitable Threat Score (ETS), the Hanssen and Kuipers (HK) score, and frequency bias (BIA) to achieve best prediction performance. With this set of thresholds, the DEFPT shows skill improvement over the corresponding single deterministic forecast using one initial value and the Time-Lagged Average Forecast (LAF) ensemble method. Similar improvements by the DEFPT are also found for the prediction of several other categories of precipitation between 1 + mm and 10 + mm per day. Application of DEFPT to larger ensemble size and BCC_AGCM version 2.2 with a higher horizontal resolution also demonstrates the effectiveness of the DEFPT for 6–15 day categorical precipitation forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, version 2.0.1. The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs, all at the same forecast valid time. This lagged average forecast (LAF) method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean. Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score, the Hanssen and Kuipers Score, and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6-15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d and 5 mm d in many regions of China, and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members. In particular, significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40%-50% in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China, and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nocturnal precipitation in the Sichuan Basin in summer has been studied in many previous works. This paper expands the study on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin to the whole year. Results show that the nocturnal precipitation has a specific quasi-stationary feature in the basin. It occurs not only in summer but also in other three seasons, even more remarkable in spring and autumn than in summer. There is a prominent eastward timing delay in the nocturnal precipitation, that is, the diurnal peak of precipitation occurs at early-night in the western basin whereas at late-night in the center and east of the basin. The Tibetan Plateau plays an essential role in the formation of this quasi-stationary nocturnal precipitation. The early-night peak of precipitation in the western basin is largely due to strong ascending over the plateau and its eastern lee side. In the central and eastern basin, three coexisting factors contribute to the late-night peak of precipitation. One is the lower-tropospheric southwesterly flow around the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, which creates a strong cyclonic rotation and ascendance in the basin at late-night, as well as brings abundant water vapor. The second is the descending motion downslope along the eastern lee side of the plateau, together with an air mass accumulation caused by the warmer air mass transport from the southeast of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, creating a diabatic warming at low level of the troposphere in the central basin. The third is a cold advection from the plateau to the basin at late-night, which leads to a cooling in the middle troposphere over the central basin. All these factors are responsible for precipitation to occur at late-night in the central to eastern basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03°C (10 yr) to 0.12°C (10 yr). This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly. Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China, but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD). Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of regional precipitation and extreme climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple mass-flux cumulus parameterization scheme suitable for large-scale atmospheric models is presented. The scheme is based on a bulk-cloud approach and has the following properties: (1) Deep convection is launched at the level of maximum moist static energy above the top of the boundary layer. It is triggered if there is positive convective available potential energy (CAPE) and relative humidity of the air at the lifting level of convection cloud is greater than 75%; (2) Convective updrafts for mass, dry static energy, moisture, cloud liquid water and momentum are parameterized by a one-dimensional entrainment/detrainment bulk-cloud model. The lateral entrainment of the environmental air into the unstable ascending parcel before it rises to the lifting condensation level is considered. The entrainment/detrainment amount for the updraft cloud parcel is separately determined according to the increase/decrease of updraft parcel mass with altitude, and the mass change for the adiabatic ascent cloud parcel with altitude is derived from a total energy conservation equation of the whole adiabatic system in which involves the updraft cloud parcel and the environment; (3) The convective downdraft is assumed saturated and originated from the level of minimum environmental saturated equivalent potential temperature within the updraft cloud; (4) The mass flux at the base of convective cloud is determined by a closure scheme suggested by Zhang (J Geophys Res 107(D14), doi:, ) in which the increase/decrease of CAPE due to changes of the thermodynamic states in the free troposphere resulting from convection approximately balances the decrease/increase resulting from large-scale processes. Evaluation of the proposed convection scheme is performed by using a single column model (SCM) forced by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's (ARM) summer 1995 and 1997 Intensive Observing Period (IOP) observations, and field observations from the Global Atmospheric Research Program's Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) and the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). The SCM can generally capture the convective events and produce a realistic timing of most events of intense precipitation although there are some biases in the strength of simulated precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze the middle-to-lower-troposphere atmospheric thermal contrast between the middle latitude over the Asian continent and over its eastern adjacent ocean near Japan, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data of the June–August (JJA) 500-hPa geopotential height over the Asia–Pacific area (10°–80°N, 60°–180°E) during 1958–2000 was done. It shows that the dominating pattern of the thermal contrast may well be represented by a “seesaw” of 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies between a land area (40°–55°N, 75°–90°E) and an oceanic area (35°–42.5°N, 140°– 150°E). An index showing the difference between the two areas is defined as the middle-latitude land–sea thermal contrast index (LSI). The LSI has significant interannual and interdecadal variability. Its interannual variation is mainly attributed to the atmospheric thermal condition over the ocean, which has a remarkably regional unique feature, while the interdecadal variability is greatly attributed to that over the land. The LSI has a close connection to the East Asian summer precipitation. The results show that large (small) LSI is related to high (low) summer precipitation in the middle to lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Korea, Japan, and its eastern adjacent ocean at the same latitude, and low (high) precipitation in the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific, as well as low (high) precipitation in north China and high-latitude northeast Asia. The pattern of correlation between LSI and precipitation resembles the spatial distribution of the principle EOF mode of year-to-year precipitation variations. Furthermore, the variation of LSI is highly correlated to the time series of the first EOF mode of summer precipitation anomalies. This suggests that the middle-latitude land–sea thermal contrast is one of important factors to influence on the summer precipitation variations over the area from the whole East Asia to the western Pacific. The possible physical mechanisms of the land–sea thermal contrast impacting the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation are also investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]