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A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG. The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions. Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Basel UrBan Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE) was a year-long experimental effort to investigate in detail the boundary layer structure in the City of Basel, Switzerland. At several sites over different surface types (urban, sub-urban and rural reference) towers up to at least twice the main obstacle height provided turbulence observations at many levels. In addition, a Wind Profiler and a Lidar near the city center were profiling the entire lower troposphere. During an intensive observation period (IOP) of one month duration, several sub-studies on street canyon energetics and satellite ground truth, as well as on urban turbulence and profiling (sodar, RASS, tethered balloon) were performed. Also tracer experiments with near-roof-level release and sampling were performed. In parallel to the experimental activities within BUBBLE, a meso-scale numerical atmospheric model, which contains a surface exchange parameterization, especially designed for urban areas was evaluated and further developed. Finally, the area of the full-scale tracer experiment which also contains several sites of other special projects during the IOP (street canyon energetics, satellite ground truth) is modeled using a very detailed physical scale-model in a wind tunnel. In the present paper details of all these activities are presented together with first results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]