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BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the relationship between sustained exposure of female sex workers (FSWs) to targeted HIV programmes and HIV incidence. We investigate the relationship between the number of missed study visits (MSVs) within each episode of 2 consecutively attended visits (MSVs) and subsequent HIV risk in a predominantly FSW cohort. METHODS: Women at high risk of HIV are invited to attend an ongoing dedicated clinic offering a combination HIV prevention intervention in Kampala, Uganda. Study visits are scheduled once every 3 months. The analysis included HIV-seronegative women with ≥1 follow-up visit from enrollment (between April 2008 and May 2017) to August 2017. Cox regression models were fitted adjusted for characteristics on sociodemographic, reproductive, behavioral, and sexually transmitted infections (through clinical examination and serological testing for syphilis). FINDINGS: Among 2206 participants, HIV incidence was 3.1/100 (170/5540) person-years [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.6 to 3.5]. Incidence increased from 2.6/100 person-years (95% CI: 2.1 to 3.2) in episodes without a MSV to 3.0/100 (95% CI: 2.2 to 4.1) for 1-2 MSVs and 4.3/100 (95% CI: 3.3 to 5.6) for ≥3 MSVs. Relative to episodes without a MSV, the hazard ratios (adjusted for confounding variables) were 1.40 (95% CI: 0.93 to 2.12) for 1-2 MSVs and 2.00 (95% CI: 1.35 to 2.95) for ≥3 MSVs (P-trend = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Missing study visits was associated with increased subsequent HIV risk. Although several factors may underlie this association, the finding suggests effectiveness of targeted combination HIV prevention. But exposure to targeted interventions needs to be monitored, facilitated, and sustained in FSWs.

The Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA Network, http://alpha.lshtm.ac.uk/) brings together ten population-based HIV surveillance sites in eastern and southern Africa, and is coordinated by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). It was established in 2005 and aims to (i) broaden the evidence base on HIV epidemiology for informing policy, (ii) strengthen the analytical capacity for HIV research, and (iii) foster collaboration between network members. All study sites, some starting in the late 1980s and early 1990s, conduct demographic surveillance in populations that range from approximately 20 to 220 thousand individuals. In addition, they conduct population-based surveys with HIV testing, and verbal autopsy interviews with relatives of deceased residents. ALPHA Network datasets have been used for studying HIV incidence, sexual behaviour and the effects of HIV on mortality, fertility, and household composition. One of the network’s substantive focus areas is the monitoring of AIDS mortality and HIV services coverage in the era of antiretroviral therapy. Service use data are retrospectively recorded in interviews and supplemented by information from record linkage with medical facilities in the surveillance areas. Data access is at the discretion of each of the participating sites, but can be coordinated by the network.

Introduction: We investigated the prevalence, predictors of and effect of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) regimen on cardiometabolic risk among HIV-positive Ugandan adults at enrolment into a prospective cohort to study the Complications of Long-Term ART (CoLTART).Methods: We collected data on cardiometabolic risk factors including dyslipidemia, hypertension, hyperglycemia, obesity and calculated the mean atherogenic index for Plasma (AIP) and 10 year Framingham risk score (FHS). Exposures were: ART regimen, duration on ART, demographic, socio-economic, behavioral, and life-style factors including smoking, physical activity and diet (including fruit and vegetables consumption).Results: We enrolled 1024 participants, 65% female, mean age was 44.8 years (SD 8.0) and median duration on ART was 9.4 years (IQR 6.1-9.8). The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 52.6%, BMI≥25 kg/m2 -26.1%, hypertension-22.6%, high AIP-31.3% and FHS above 10% was 16.6%. The prevalence of low High Density Lipoprotein (HDL) was 37.5%, high Total cholesterol (Tc)-30.2%, high Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL) -23.6%, high Triglycerides (TG)-21.2%, low physical activity-46.4% and alcohol consumption 26.4%. In multivariate linear regression analyses, increasing age was associated with higher mean Tc, HDL, LDL, FHS (P10% compared to the non PI regimen.Conclusion: ART increases cardiometabolic risk. Integration of routine assessment for cardiometabolic risk factors and preventive interventions into HIV care programs in resource-limited settings is recommended.Keywords: HIV, cardiometabolic, dyslipidemia, long-term ART, hypertension, obesity

The General Population Cohort (GPC) was set up in 1989 to examine trends in HIV prevalence and incidence, and their determinants in rural south-western Uganda. Recently, the research questions have included the epidemiology and genetics of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) to address the limited data on the burden and risk factors for NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa. The cohort comprises all residents (52% aged ≥13years, men and women in equal proportions) within one-half of a rural sub-county, residing in scattered houses, and largely farmers of three major ethnic groups. Data collected through annual surveys include; mapping for spatial analysis and participant location; census for individual socio-demographic and household socioeconomic status assessment; and a medical survey for health, lifestyle and biophysical and blood measurements to ascertain disease outcomes and risk factors for selected participants. This cohort offers a rich platform to investigate the interplay between communicable diseases and NCDs. There is robust infrastructure for data management, sample processing and storage, and diverse expertise in epidemiology, social and basic sciences. For any data access enquiries you may contact the director, MRC/UVRI, Uganda Research Unit on AIDS by email to mrc@mrcuganda.org or the corresponding author.

Background WHO recommends using Tenofovir containing first line antiretroviral therapy (ART), however, Tenofovir has been reported to be associated with renal impairment and dysfunction. We compared renal function among individuals on Tenofovir and those on non-Tenofovir containing ART. Methods In a cross-sectional study of HIV-Positive adults on ART, at enrolment into a prospective cohort to study the long-term complications of ART in Uganda, information on biophysical measurements, medical history, clinical examination and renal function tests (RFTs) was collected. Fractional Tubular phosphate reabsorption and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were calculated. Mean values of RFTs and proportions with abnormal RFTs were compared between non-Tenofovir containing (Non-TDF) and Tenofovir containing (TDF-ART) ART regimen groups using a general linear regression model. Durations of TDF exposure were also compared. Results Between July 2013 and October 2014, we enrolled 953 individuals on ART for 6 or more months, median duration on ART was 9.3 years, 385 (40.4 %) were on non-TDF and 568 (59.6 %) on TDF-ART regimens. The proportion of participants with Proteinuria (>30 mg/dl) was higher among the TDF-ART group than the non-TDF ART group. However, in multivariable analysis, there were no significant differences in the adjusted mean differences of eGFR, serum urea, serum creatinine, fractional tubular reabsorption of phosphate and serum phosphates when patients on TDF-ART were compared with those on non-TDF containing ART. There were no differences in renal function even when different durations on Tenofovir were compared. Conclusions We found no differences in renal function among patients on Tenofovir and non-Tenofovir containing ART for almost a decade. Tenofovir based first line ART can therefore safely be initiated even in settings without routine renal function monitoring.

objective To provide a broad and up-to-date picture of the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level mortality in Southern and East Africa. methods Data on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality among 15–59 year olds were analysed from demographic surveillance sites (DSS) in Karonga (Malawi), Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda) and the Africa Centre (South Africa), using Poisson regression. Trends over time from up to 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 4–6 years afterwards, are presented, overall and by age and sex. For Masaka and Kisesa, trends are analysed separately for HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals. For Karonga and the Africa Centre, trends in AIDS and non-AIDS mortality are analysed using verbal autopsy data. results For all-cause mortality, overall rate ratios (RRs) comparing the period 2–6 years following ART roll-out with the pre-ART period were 0.58 (5.9 vs. 10.2 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Karonga, 0.79 (7.2 vs. 9.1 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Kisesa, 0.61 (6.7 compared with 11.0 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Masaka and 0.79 (14.8 compared with 18.6 deaths per 1000 person-years) in the Africa Centre DSS. The mortality decline was seen only in HIV-positive individuals ⁄ AIDS mortality, with no decline in HIV-negative individuals ⁄ non-AIDS mortality. Less difference was seen in Kisesa where ART uptake was lower. conclusions Falls in all-cause mortality are consistent with ART uptake. The largest falls occurred where ART provision has been decentralised or available locally, suggesting that this is important.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake after its introduction in 2004 in a longitudinal population-based cohort and its nested clinical cohort in rural Uganda. METHODS: A HIV serosurvey of all adults aged ≥ 15 years is conducted annually. Two intervals were selected for analysis. Interval 1 (November 2004-October 2006) provided 2 years of follow-up to prospectively evaluate access to HIV services. Interval 2 (November 2007-October 2008) was used to evaluate current coverage of services. Logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic factors associated with ART screening within 2 years of diagnosis. ART coverage was assessed using Weibull survival models to estimate the numbers needing ART. RESULTS: In Interval 1, 636 HIV-positive adults were resident and 295 (46.4%) knew their status. Of those, 248 (84.1%) were screened for ART within 2 years of diagnosis. After adjusting for age, those who were widowed, separated or never married were more likely to be screened than those who were married. In Interval 2, 575 HIV-positive adults were residents, 322 (56.0%) knew their status, 255 (44.3%) had been screened for ART and 189 (32.9%) had started ART. Estimated ART coverage was 66%. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, ART access and uptake is very high once people are diagnosed. Owing to intensive screening in the study clinic, nearly all participants who were eligible initiated ART. However, this is unlikely to reflect coverage in the general population, intensified efforts are needed to promote HIV testing, and ART screening and uptake are needed among those found to be HIV-positive.

BACKGROUND: The role of concurrent sexual partnerships in the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa is not well understood. Although most infections in Africa occur among married individuals transmission may occur from both spousal and extraspousal partnerships. This article explores extraspousal partnerships as a form of concurrency examining the association with HIV status demographic characteristics and sexual behaviors in a population-based cohort in rural Uganda. METHODS: Prevalence of extraspousal partnerships was estimated using cross-sectional data from 2008 and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated for factors associated with the prevalence of extraspousal partnerships using logistic regression. Among men who were not in polygynous marriages we used linked spousal data to investigate the association between extraspousal partnerships and wives serostatus. RESULTS: Extraspousal partnerships in the past year were reported by 17% of married men and 2% of married women. Among both men and women extraspousal partnerships were associated with not knowing their partners HIV status (men: aOR = 1.74; 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.67; women: aOR = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.75) and extraspousal partnerships were also associated with increased condom use for men. There was no evidence that men reporting extraspousal partnerships were at increased risk of HIV (aOR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.48 to 2.01) or that a womans risk of HIV was associated with her husband reporting extraspousal partnerships (aOR = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.29 to 1.57). CONCLUSIONS: For both men and women extraspousal partnerships were associated with not knowing their partners HIV status. There was no evidence of an association of extraspousal partnerships with HIV serostatus in this cross-sectional analysis.

Objective: To compare reported numbers of sexual partners in Eastern and Southern Africa. Methods: Sexual partnership data from four longitudinal population-based surveys (1998–2007) in Zimbabwe, Uganda and South Africa were aggregated and overall proportions reporting more than one lifetime sexual partner calculated. A lexis-style table was used to illustrate the average lifetime sexual partners by site, sex, age group and birth cohort. The male-to-female ratio of mean number of partnerships in the last 12 months was calculated by site and survey. For each single year of age, the proportion sexually active in the past year, the mean number of partners in the past year and the proportion with more than one partner in the past year were calculated. Results: Over 90% of men and women between 25 and 45 years of age reported being sexually active during the past 12 months, with most reporting at least one sexual partner. Overall, men reported higher numbers of lifetime sexual partners and partners in the last year than women. The male-to-female ratio of mean partnerships in the last year ranged from 1.41 to 1.86. In southern African cohorts, individuals in later birth cohorts reported fewer sexual partners and a lower proportion reported multiple partnerships compared with earlier birth cohorts, whereas these behavioural changes were not observed in the Ugandan cohorts. Across the four sites, reports of sexual partnerships followed a similar pattern for each sex. Conclusions: The longitudinal results show that reductions in the number of partnerships were more evident in southern Africa than in Uganda.

Objectives: To derive the best possible estimates of trends in age at first sex (AFS) among successive cohorts of Ugandan men and women based on all the data available from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and cohort studies in Masaka and Rakai districts. Methods: The datasets from the DHS, Masaka cohort and Rakai cohort were analysed separately. Survival analysis methods were used to estimate median AFS for men and women born in the 1950s–1980s and to compute hazard ratios for first sex, comparing later cohorts with earlier cohorts. Results: The DHS and Masaka data showed an increase in AFS in women in the more recent birth cohorts compared with those born before 1970, but this was less apparent in the Rakai data. Successive male cohorts in Masaka appeared first to have an increased AFS which subsequently decreased, a trend that was also apparent (but not significant) in the DHS data. Younger men in Rakai had an earlier AFS than those born before 1980. Conclusions: Women in Uganda who were born after 1970 have, on average, had sex at a later age than those born earlier. For men, AFS has not changed consistently over the period in question. Differences between Masaka and Rakai may reflect socioeconomic differences. Most of the change in AFS occurred too late to have contributed to the initial decline in the incidence of HIV.

Objectives: To assess inconsistencies in reported age at first sex (AFS) and age at first marriage (AFM) in three African cohorts, and consider their implications for interpreting trends in sexual and marital debut. Methods: Data were analysed from population-based cohort studies in Zimbabwe, Uganda and South Africa with 3, 10 and 4 behavioural survey rounds, respectively. Three rounds over a similar time frame were selected from each site for comparative purposes. The consistency of AFS and AFM reports was assessed for each site by comparing responses made by participants in multiple surveys. Respondents were defined as unreliable if less than half of all their age-at-event reports were the same. Kaplan-Meier functions were used to describe the cumulative proportion (1) having had sex and (2) married by age, stratified by sex, birth cohort and site, to compare the influence of reporting inconsistencies on these estimates. Results: Among participants attending all three comparable rounds, the percentage with unreliable AFS reports ranged from 30% among South African women to 56% among Zimbabwean men, with similar patterns observed for AFM. Inclusion of unreliable reports had little effect on estimates of median age-at-event in all sites. There was some evidence from the 1960–9 birth cohort that women in Uganda and both sexes in South Africa reported later AFS as they aged. Conclusion: Although reporting quality is unlikely to affect comparisons of AFS and AFM between settings, care should be taken not to overinterpret small changes in reported age-at-event over time within each site.

Objective: The risk of stroke rises after episodes of herpes zoster and chickenpox, which are caused by varicella zoster virus (VZV). We conducted a pilot case–control study of stroke, nested within a long‐standing cohort in Uganda (the General Population Cohort), to examine antibodies against VZV prior to diagnosis. Methods: We used stored sera to examine the evolution of IgG and IgM antibodies against VZV among 31 clinically confirmed cases of stroke and 132 matched controls. For each participant, three samples of sera were identified: one each, taken at or near the time of (pseudo)diagnosis, between 5 and 10 years prior to diagnosis and at 15 years prior to diagnosis. Results: All participants had detectable antibodies against VZV, but there were no significant differences between cases and controls in the 15 years prior to diagnosis. As a secondary finding, 16% (5/31) of cases and 6% (8/132) of controls had HIV (OR 3.0; 95% CI 0.8–10.1; P = 0.06). Conclusions: This is the first prospective study to examine a biological measure of exposure to VZV prior to diagnosis of stroke and although we identified no significant association, in this small pilot, with limited characterisation of cases, we cannot exclude the possibility that the virus is causal for a subset. The impact of HIV on risk of stroke has not been well characterised and warrants further study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in all-cause adult mortality after the roll-out of an antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in rural Uganda. METHODS: Longitudinal population-based cohort study of approximately 20,000 residents in rural Uganda. Mortality in adults aged 15-59 years was determined for the 5-year period (1999-2003) before introduction of ART in January 2004 and for the 5-year period afterwards. Poisson regression was used to estimate mortality rate ratios (RRs) for the period before ART, 1 year after ART introduction (from January 2004 to January 2005) and more than 1 year after ART introduction. Trends in mortality were analysed by HIV status, age and sex. RESULTS: Before ART became available, the mortality rate (deaths per 1000 person-years) was 4.0 (95% CI = 3.3-4.8) among HIV-negative individuals and 116.4 (95% CI = 101.9-133.0) among HIV-positive individuals. During the period January 2004-end November 2009, 279 individuals accessed ART. In the year after ART was introduced, the mortality rate (deaths per 1000 person-years) among HIV-negative individuals did not change significantly (adjusted RR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.61-1.47), but among HIV-positive individuals dropped by 25% to 87.4 (adjusted RR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.53-1.06). In the period 2005-2009, the mortality rate (deaths per 1000 person-years) among HIV-positive individuals fell further to 39.9 (adjusted RR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.26-0.43). The effect was greatest among individuals aged 30-44 years, and trends were similar in men and women. CONCLUSION: The substantially reduced mortality rate among HIV-positive individuals after ART roll-out lends further support to the intensification of efforts to ensure universal access to ART.

OBJECTIVES: To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. METHODS: A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. RESULTS: The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. CONCLUSION: A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-wide adult life expectancy. STUDY DESIGN: A population-based open cohort study with repeated HIV status measurements and registration of vital events in Southwestern Uganda (1991-2012). METHODS: Nonparametric survival analysis techniques are used for estimating trends in the adult life expectancy of the general population (aged 15 and above), the adult life expectancy by HIV status, and the adult life expectancy deficit. The life expectancy deficit is estimated as the difference between overall life expectancy and life expectancy of the HIV-negative population. All estimates are disaggregated by sex. RESULTS: Between 1991-1993 and 2009-2012, population-wide adult life expectancy increased from 39.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 35.9-42.8] to 56.1 years (95% CI: 54.0-58.5) in women, and from 38.6 (95% CI: 35.4-42.1) to 51.4 years (95% CI: 49.2-53.7) in men. Most of the adult life expectancy gains coincide with the introduction of ART in 2004; as evidenced by an increase in the adult life expectancy of people living with HIV between 2000-2002 and 2009-2012 of 22.9 and 20.0 years for women and men, respectively. Over the whole period of observation, the adult life expectancy deficit associated with HIV decreased from 16.1 (95% CI: 12.7-19.8) to 6.0 years (95% CI: 4.1-7.8) among women, and from 16.0 (95% CI: 12.1-19.9) to 2.8 years (95% CI: 1.2-4.6) among men. CONCLUSION: Population-wide life expectancy increased substantially, largely driven by reductions in HIV-related mortality. Women have gained more adult life years than men since the introduction of ART, but the burden of HIV in terms of the life years lost is still larger for women than it is for men.