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Objective: To validate recently characterized curves of hCG rise and fall that are seen in viable and nonviable pregnancies in a population of women who have pregnancies of unknown location. Design: Historical cohort study. Setting: University hospital. Patient(s): One thousand two hundred forty-nine women with symptomatic early pregnancies. Intervention(s): None. Main Outcome Measure(s): Comparison of observed hCG values to predicted hCG values; time to diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy; accuracy of diagnosis. Result(s): Of the 1,249 patients included in this study, 196 had ectopic pregnancy (EP); 261, intrauterine pregnancy (IUP); and 792, spontaneous abortion (SAB). By determining the rate of change in hCG values from two consecutive visits and comparing them with a minimal rise of 35% in 2 days (the bound that is defined by the 99.9% confidence interval [CI] for the rise of hCG in an IUP) or a minimal fall of 21%–35% (the bound that is defined by the 90% CI for the fall of hCG in an SAB), we were able to make the diagnosis of EP an average of 2.5 days sooner than by standard clinical practice. Only 12% of patients had an EP go undiagnosed by using these rules, because the curve of rise or fall of their hCG mimicked that of a non-EP gestation. Conclusion(s): Recently redefined curves of rise and fall in hCG for IUP and SAB are valid for clinical use on the basis of our application to this large cohort of patients. Using them can shorten the time needed to make the diagnosis of EP. Use of a more conservative cutoff for minimal rise in hCG, one as slow as 35% over 2 days, to characterize a potentially viable gestation would minimize potential interruption of a desired pregnancy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The study analyzes serial human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels in women with symptomatic early pregnancies that ultimately received diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy. The number of women with ectopic pregnancy who experience an increase in hCG is the same as those who experience a decrease in hCG. Thus, the hCG profile of women with ectopic pregnancies is similar to that of an intrauterine pregnancy or a completed spontaneous abortion.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of an ultimate diagnosis of miscarriage with various clinical symptoms and historical factors in a cohort of women presenting with pain, bleeding, or both in the first trimester of pregnancy. METHODS: This was a case-control study from a population of women presenting for care with pelvic pain or vaginal bleeding in the first trimester of pregnancy whose diagnoses were not definite upon initial evaluation. Analyses were performed in 2 ways. In one instance cases were defined as women ultimately definitively diagnosed with a miscarriage and controls were defined as women with a pregnancy that did not result in miscarriage (ectopic pregnancy or ongoing intrauterine pregnancy). The second analysis compared women with a miscarriage only to women who had an ongoing intrauterine pregnancy. RESULTS: A total of 2,026 women were evaluated, with 1,192 ultimately diagnosed with a spontaneous abortion, 367 with ectopic pregnancy, and 467 with a viable intrauterine pregnancy. Although many risk factors were individually associated with miscarriage in preliminary analysis, in the final analysis only extremes in age (« 25 and » 35) and the complaint of bleeding (odds ratio [OR] 7.35, 95% confidence interval[CI] 5.74–9.41) were associated with miscarriage. The complaint of pain (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.57–0.92), human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) value greater than 500 (hCG ≤ 500 IU/mL compared with hCG 501–2000: OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.39–0.69) and concurrent cervical infection (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.55–0.88) were negatively associated with miscarriage. CONCLUSION: Few factors predict miscarriage in women who present with a symptomatic first trimester pregnancy of unknown location. Heavy bleeding was most strongly associated with miscarriage. Concurrent cervical infections should not be overlooked as a cause of bleeding in early pregnancy and were not associated with miscarriage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE: We sought to estimate a standard curve of serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) decline that characterizes spontaneous abortion. METHODS: Data were extracted from a clinical database of women with symptomatic early pregnancies and nondiagnostic ultrasonography who required follow-up with serial hCG levels. The evaluation was restricted to women who had a pregnancy of unknown location, a decrease in serum levels, and who were ultimately diagnosed with miscarriage (a decrease in serum hCG to < 5 mIU/mL in the absence of surgical intervention or confirmation of products of conception after dilation and curettage). The starting point of the curve was the hCG concentration at presentation, with serial levels plotted until the time of definitive diagnosis. Semiparametric statistical techniques were used to characterize the shape of the curve. We present slopes for the decrease in log hCG levels and the projected rate of fall. RESULTS: Of the 1,543 patients, 710 were diagnosed with miscarriage. A quadratic curve for log hCG with a steeper rate of decline for large initial hCG values best described the pattern of change. One curve could not fully estimate the decline because the rate was dependent on the initial hCG level. In other words, more rapid decline was associated with a higher starting concentration. The rate of decline ranged from 21% to 35% at 2 days and 60% to 84% at 7 days, depending on initial hCG value. CONCLUSION: The rate of hCG decrease in spontaneous abortions is described by a quadratic profile, with a faster decline in hCG value with higher presentation levels. A rate of decline less than 21% at 2 days or 60% at 7 days suggests retained trophoblasts or an ectopic pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the change in serial human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels in women symptomatic with pain or bleeding who presented with nondiagnostic ultrasonography but were ultimately confirmed to have a viable intrauterine pregnancy. METHODS: The rise in serial hCG measures were modeled over time, with the start point defined in 2 ways: by last menstrual period and by date of presentation for care. Both semiparametric (spline) curves and linear random-effects models were explored. The slope and projected increase of hCG were calculated to define 99% of viable intrauterine pregnancies. RESULTS: A total of 287 subjects met inclusion criteria and contributed 861 measurements of hCG. On average, these subjects contributed 3.00 observations and were followed up for 5.25 days. A linear increase in log hCG best described the pattern of rise. Curves derived from last menstrual period and day of presentation do not differ substantially. The median slope for a rise of hCG after 1 day was 1.50, (or a 50% increase); 2.24 after 2 days (or a 124% rise), and 5.00 after 4 days. The fastest rise was 1.81 at 1 day, 3.28 at 2 days, and 10.76 at 4 days. The slowest or minimal rise for a normal viable intrauterine pregnancy was 24% at 1 day and 53% at 2 days. CONCLUSION: These data define the slowest rise in serial hCG values for a potentially viable gestation and will aid in distinguishing a viable early pregnancy from a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy. The minimal rise in serial hCG values for women with a viable intrauterine pregnancy is ‘slower’ than previously reported, suggesting that intervention to diagnosis and treat an abnormal gestation should be more conservative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]