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Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) models have emerged as valuable tools for the characterization and translation of antibiotic effects, and consequently for drug development and therapy. In contrast to traditional PKPD concepts for antibiotics such as minimum inhibitory concentration and PKPD indices, PKPD models enable description of the continuous, often species- or population-dependent time course of antimicrobial effects, commonly considering mechanistic pathogen- and drug-related knowledge. This review presents a comprehensive overview of previously published PKPD models describing repeated measurements of antibiotic effects. A literature review was conducted to identify PKPD models based on: (i) antibiotic compounds; (ii) Gram-positive or Gram-negative pathogens; and (iii) in-vitro or in-vivo longitudinal colony-forming unit data. In total, 132 publications were identified that were released between 1963 and 2021, including models based on exposure to single antibiotics (n=92) and drug combinations (n=40), as well as different experimental settings (e.g. static/traditional dynamic/hollow-fibre/animal time-kill models, n=90/27/32/11). An interactive, fully searchable table summarizes the details of each model, namely variants and mechanistic elements of PKPD submodels capturing observed bacterial growth, regrowth, drug effects and interactions. Furthermore, the review highlights the main purposes of PKPD model development, including the translation of preclinical PKPD to clinical settings, and the assessment of varied dosing regimens and patient characteristics for their impact on clinical antibiotic effects. In summary, this comprehensive overview of PKPD models will assist in identifying PKPD modelling strategies to describe growth, killing, regrowth and interaction patterns for pathogen-antibiotic combinations over time, and ultimately facilitate model-informed antibiotic translation, dosing and drug development., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interests None declared., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Model-informed drug development (MIDD) has a long and rich history in infectious diseases. This review describes foundational principles of translational anti-infective pharmacology, including choice of appropriate measures of exposure and pharmacodynamic (PD) measures, patient subpopulations, and drug-drug interactions. Examples are presented for state-of-the-art, empiric, mechanistic, interdisciplinary, and real-world evidence MIDD applications in the development of antibacterials (review of minimum inhibitory concentration-based models, mechanism-based pharmacokinetic/PD (PK/PD) models, PK/PD models of resistance, and immune response), antifungals, antivirals, drugs for the treatment of global health infectious diseases, and medical countermeasures. The degree of adoption of MIDD practices across the infectious diseases field is also summarized. The future application of MIDD in infectious diseases will progress along two planes; "depth" and "breadth" of MIDD methods. "MIDD depth" refers to deeper incorporation of the specific pathogen biology and intrinsic and acquired-resistance mechanisms; host factors, such as immunologic response and infection site, to enable deeper interrogation of pharmacological impact on pathogen clearance; clinical outcome and emergence of resistance from a pathogen; and patient and population perspective. In particular, improved early assessment of the emergence of resistance potential will become a greater focus in MIDD, as this is poorly mitigated by current development approaches. "MIDD breadth" refers to greater adoption of model-centered approaches to anti-infective development. Specifically, this means how various MIDD approaches and translational tools can be integrated or connected in a systematic way that supports decision making by key stakeholders (sponsors, regulators, and payers) across the entire development pathway., (© 2021 The Authors. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

The value of model-based translation in drug discovery and development is now effectively being recognized in many disease areas and among various stakeholders. Such quantitative approaches are expected to facilitate the selection on which compound to prioritize for successful development, predict the human efficacious dose based on preclinical data with adequate precision, guide design, and de-risk later development stages. The importance of time-dependencies, which are typically species-dependent due to different turnover rates of biological processes, is, however, often neglected. For bacterial infections, the choice of dosing regimen is typically relying on preclinical pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) data, because the bacterial load and disease severity, and consequently the PK/PD relationship, cannot be quantified well on clinical data, given the low-information end points used. It is time to recognize the limitations of using time-collapsed approaches for translation (i.e., methods where targets are based on summary measures of exposure and response). Models describing the full time-course captures important quantitative information of drug distribution, bacterial growth, antibiotic killing, and resistance development, and can account for species-differences in the PK profiles driving the killing. Furthermore, with a model-based approach for translation, we can take a holistic approach in development of a joint model for in vitro, in vivo, and clinical data, as well as incorporating information on the contribution of the immune system. Such advancements are anticipated to facilitate rational decision making during various stages of drug development and in the optimization of treatment regimens for different groups of patients., (© 2021 The Authors. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

Purpose: Quantitative relationships between treatment-induced changes in tumor size and circulating tumor cell (CTC) counts, and their links to overall survival (OS), are lacking. We present a population modeling framework identifying and quantifying such relationships, based on longitudinal data collected in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) to evaluate the value of tumor size and CTC counts as predictors of OS., Experimental Design: A pharmacometric approach (i.e., population pharmacodynamic modeling) was used to characterize the changes in tumor size and CTC count and evaluate them as predictors of OS in 451 patients with mCRC treated with chemotherapy and targeted therapy in a prospectively randomized phase III study (CAIRO2)., Results: A tumor size model of tumor quiescence and drug resistance was used to characterize the tumor size time-course, and was, in addition to the total normalized dose (i.e., of all administered drugs) in a given cycle, related to the CTC counts through a negative binomial model (CTC model). Tumor size changes did not contribute additional predictive value when the mean CTC count was a predictor of OS. Treatment reduced the typical mean count from 1.43 to 0.477 (HR = 3.94). The modeling framework was applied to explore whether dose modifications (increased and reduced) would result in a CTC count below 1/7.5 mL after 1 to 2 weeks of treatment., Conclusions: Time-varying CTC counts can be useful for early predicting OS in patients with mCRC, and may therefore have potential for model-based treatment individualization. Although tumor size was connected to CTC, its link to OS was weaker., (©2020 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Purpose: Various biomarkers have been proposed for sunitinib therapy in gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST). However, the lack of "real-life" comparative studies hampers the selection of the most appropriate one. We, therefore, set up a pharmacometric simulation framework to compare each proposed biomarker., Experimental Design: Models describing relations between sunitinib exposure, adverse events (hand-foot syndrome, fatigue, hypertension, and neutropenia), soluble VEGFR (sVEGFR)-3, and overall survival (OS) were connected to evaluate the differences in survival and adverse events under different dosing algorithms. Various fixed dosing regimens [4/2 (weeks on/weeks off) or 2/1 (50 mg), and continuous daily dosing (37.5 mg)] and individualization approaches [concentration-adjusted dosing (CAD), toxicity-adjusted dosing (TAD), and sVEGFR-3-adjusted dosing (VAD)] were explored following earlier suggested blood sampling schedules and dose-reduction criteria. Model-based forecasts of biomarker changes were evaluated for predictive accuracy and the advantage of a model-based dosing algorithm was evaluated for clinical implementation., Results: The continuous daily dosing regimen was predicted to result in the longest survival. TAD (24.5 months) and VAD (25.5 months) increased median OS as compared with a fixed dose schedule (19.9 and 21.5 months, respectively) and CAD (19.7 and 21.3 months, respectively), without markedly raising the risk of intolerable toxicities. Changes in neutrophil count and sVEGFR-3 were accurately forecasted in the majority of subjects (>65%), based on biweekly blood sampling., Conclusions: Dose adjustments based on the pharmacodynamic biomarkers neutrophil count and sVEGFR-3 can increase OS while retaining drug safety. Future efforts could explore the possibility of incorporating a model-based dose approach in clinical practice to increase dosing accuracy for these biomarkers., (©2020 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Lack of effective treatment for multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (MDR-Kp) necessitates finding and optimising combination therapies of old antibiotics. The aims of this study were to quantify the combined effect of polymyxin B and minocycline by building an in silico semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model and to predict bacterial kinetics when exposed to the drugs alone and in combination at clinically achievable unbound drug concentration-time profiles. A clinical K. pneumoniae strain resistant to polymyxin B [minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) = 16 mg/L] and minocycline (MIC = 16 mg/L) was selected for extensive in vitro static time-kill experiments. The strain was exposed to concentrations of 0.0625-48 × MIC, with seven samples taken per experiment for viable counts during 0-28 h. These observations allowed the development of the PKPD model. The final PKPD model included drug-induced adaptive resistance for both drugs. Both the minocycline-induced bacterial killing and resistance onset rate constants were increased when polymyxin B was co-administered, whereas polymyxin B parameters were unaffected. Predictions at clinically used dosages from the developed PKPD model showed no or limited antibacterial effect with monotherapy, whilst combination therapy kept bacteria below the starting inoculum for >20 h at high dosages [polymyxin B 2.5 mg/kg + 1.5 mg/kg every 12 h (q12h); minocycline 400 mg + 200 mg q12h, loading + maintenance doses]. This study suggests that polymyxin B and minocycline in combination may be of clinical benefit in the treatment of infections by MDR-Kp and for isolates that are non-susceptible to either drug alone., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Colistin is a polymyxin antibiotic used to treat patients infected with multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (MDR-GNB). The objective of this work was to develop a whole-body physiologically based pharmacokinetic (WB-PBPK) model to predict tissue distribution of colistin in rat. The distribution of a drug in a tissue is commonly characterized by its tissue-to-plasma partition coefficient, K p . Colistin and its prodrug, colistin methanesulfonate (CMS) K p priors, were measured experimentally from rat tissue homogenates or predicted in silico. The PK parameters of both compounds were estimated fitting in vivo their plasma concentration-time profiles from six rats receiving an i.v. bolus of CMS. The variability in the data was quantified by applying a nonlinear mixed effect (NLME) modelling approach. A WB-PBPK model was developed assuming a well-stirred and perfusion-limited distribution in tissue compartments. Prior information on tissue distribution of colistin and CMS was investigated following three scenarios: K p was estimated using in silico K p priors (I) or K p was estimated using experimental K p priors (II) or K p was fixed to the experimental values (III). The WB-PBPK model best described colistin and CMS plasma concentration-time profiles in scenario II. Colistin-predicted concentrations in kidneys in scenario II were higher than in other tissues, which was consistent with its large experimental K p prior. This might be explained by a high affinity of colistin for renal parenchyma and active reabsorption into the proximal tubular cells. In contrast, renal accumulation of colistin was not predicted in scenario I. Colistin and CMS clearance estimates were in agreement with published values. The developed model suggests using experimental priors over in silico K p priors for kidneys to provide a better prediction of colistin renal distribution. Such models might serve in drug development for interspecies scaling and investigate the impact of disease state on colistin disposition., (© 2018 Nordic Association for the Publication of BCPT (former Nordic Pharmacological Society).)

Purpose: An item response theory (IRT) pharmacometric framework is presented to characterize Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast (FACT-B) data in locally-advanced or metastatic breast cancer patients treated with ado-trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) or capecitabine-plus-lapatinib., Methods: In the IRT model, four latent well-being variables, based on FACT-B general subscales, were used to describe the physical, social/family, emotional and functional well-being. Each breast cancer subscale item was reassigned to one of the other subscales. Longitudinal changes in FACT-B responses and covariate effects were investigated., Results: The IRT model could describe both item-level and subscale-level FACT-B data. Non-Asian patients showed better baseline social/family and functional well-being than Asian patients. Moreover, patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 had better baseline physical and functional well-being. Well-being was described as initially increasing or decreasing before reaching a steady-state, which varied substantially between patients and subscales. T-DM1 exposure was not related to any of the latent variables. Physical well-being worsening was identified in capecitabine-plus-lapatinib-treated patients, whereas T-DM1-treated patients typically stayed stable., Conclusion: The developed framework provides a thorough description of FACT-B longitudinal data. It acknowledges the multi-dimensional nature of the questionnaire and allows covariate and exposure effects to be evaluated on responses.

Design of phase 1 combination therapy trials is complex compared to single therapy trials. In this work, model-based adaptive optimal design (MBAOD) was exemplified and evaluated for a combination of paclitaxel and a hypothetical new compound in a phase 1 study to determine the best dosing regimen for a phase 2 trial. Neutropenia was assumed as the main toxicity and the dose optimization process targeted a 33% probability of grade 4 neutropenia and maximal efficacy (based on preclinical studies) by changing the dose amount of both drugs and the dosing schedule for the new drug. Different starting conditions (e.g., initial dose), search paths (e.g., maximal change in dose intensity per step), and stopping criteria (e.g., "3 + 3 rule") were explored. The MBAOD approach was successfully implemented allowing the possibility of flexible designs with the modification of doses and dosing schedule throughout the trial. The 3 + 3 rule was shown to be highly conservative (selection of a dosing regimen with at least 90% of the possible maximal efficacy in less than 21% of the cases) but also safer (selection of a toxic design in less than 2% of the cases). Without the 3 + 3 rule, better performance was observed (>67% of selected designs were associated with at least 90% of possible maximal efficacy) while the proportion of DLTs per trial was similar. Overall, MBAOD is a promising tool in the context of dose finding studies of combination treatments and was showed to be flexible enough to be associated with requirements imposed by clinical protocols.

Aims: Early identification of patients with febrile neutropenia (FN) is desirable for initiation of preventive treatment, such as with antibiotics. In this study, the time courses of two inflammation biomarkers, interleukin (IL)-6 and C-reactive protein (CRP), following adjuvant chemotherapy of breast cancer, were characterized. The potential to predict development of FN by IL-6 and CRP, and other model-derived and clinical variables, was explored., Methods: The IL-6 and CRP time courses in cycles 1 and 4 of breast cancer treatment were described by turnover models where the probability for an elevated production following initiation of chemotherapy was estimated. Parametric time-to-event models were developed to describe FN occurrence to assess: (i) predictors available before chemotherapy is initiated; (ii) predictors available before FN occurs; and (iii) predictors available when FN occurs., Results: The IL-6 and CRP time courses were successfully characterized with peak IL-6 typically occurring 2 days prior to CRP peak. Of all evaluated variables the CRP time course was most closely associated with the occurrence of FN. Since the CRP peak typically occurred at the time of FN diagnosis it will, however, have limited value for identifying the need for preventive treatment. The time course of IL-6 was the predictor that could best forecast FN events. Of the variables available at baseline, age was the best, although in comparison a relatively weak, predictor., Conclusions: The developed models add quantitative knowledge about IL-6 and CRP and their relationship to the development of FN. The study suggests that IL-6 may have potential as a clinical predictor of FN if monitored during myelosuppressive chemotherapy., (© 2017 The British Pharmacological Society.)

Background: Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) models developed based on data from in vitro time-kill experiments have been suggested to contribute to more efficient drug development programmes and better dosing strategies for antibiotics. However, for satisfactory predictions such models would have to show good extrapolation properties., Objectives: To evaluate if a previously described mechanism-based PKPD model was able also to predict drug efficacy for higher bacterial densities and across bacterial strains., Methods: A PKPD model describing the efficacy of ciprofloxacin on Escherichia coli was evaluated. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated across several experimental conditions with respect to: (i) bacterial start inoculum ranging from the standard of ∼106 cfu/mL up to late stationary-phase cultures; and (ii) efficacy for seven additional strains (three laboratory and four clinical strains), not included during the model development process, based only on information regarding their MIC. Model predictions were performed according to the intended experimental protocol and later compared with observed bacterial counts., Results: The mechanism-based PKPD model structure developed based on data from standard start inoculum experiments was able to accurately describe the inoculum effect. The model successfully predicted the time course of drug efficacy for additional laboratory and clinical strains based on only the MIC values. The model structure was further developed to better describe the stationary phase data., Conclusions: This study supports the use of mechanism-based PKPD models based on preclinical data for predictions of untested scenarios., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Purpose: To investigate whether a more frequent monitoring of the absolute neutrophil counts (ANC) during myelosuppressive chemotherapy, together with model-based predictions, can improve therapy management, compared to the limited clinical monitoring typically applied today., Methods: Daily ANC in chemotherapy-treated cancer patients were simulated from a previously published population model describing docetaxel-induced myelosuppression. The simulated values were used to generate predictions of the individual ANC time-courses, given the myelosuppression model. The accuracy of the predicted ANC was evaluated under a range of conditions with reduced amount of ANC measurements., Results: The predictions were most accurate when more data were available for generating the predictions and when making short forecasts. The inaccuracy of ANC predictions was highest around nadir, although a high sensitivity (≥90%) was demonstrated to forecast Grade 4 neutropenia before it occurred. The time for a patient to recover to baseline could be well forecasted 6 days (±1 day) before the typical value occurred on day 17., Conclusions: Daily monitoring of the ANC, together with model-based predictions, could improve anticancer drug treatment by identifying patients at risk for severe neutropenia and predicting when the next cycle could be initiated.

Aims: The aims of this study were (i) to develop a modelling framework linking change in tumour size during treatment to survival probability in metastatic ovarian cancer; and (ii) to model the appearance of new lesions and investigate their relationship with survival and disease characteristics., Methods: Data from a randomized Phase III clinical trial comparing carboplatin monotherapy to gemcitabine plus carboplatin combotherapy in 336 patients with metastatic ovarian cancer were used. A population model describing change in tumour size based on drug treatment information was established and its relationship with time to appearance of new lesions and survival were investigated with time to event models., Results: The tumour size profiles were well characterized as evaluated by visual predictive checks. Metastasis in the liver at enrolment and change in tumour size up to week 12 were predictors of time to appearance of new lesions. Survival was predicted based on the patient tumour size and ECOG performance status at enrolment and on appearance of new lesions during treatment and change in tumour size up to week 12. Tumour size and survival data from a separate study were adequately predicted., Conclusions: The proposed models simulate tumour dynamics following treatment and provide a link to the probability of developing new lesions as well as to survival. The models have potential to be used for optimizing the design of late phase clinical trials in metastatic ovarian cancer based on early phase clinical study results and simulation., (© 2016 The British Pharmacological Society.)

Inter occasion variability (IOV) is of importance to consider in the development of a design where individual pharmacokinetic or pharmacodynamic parameters are of interest. IOV may adversely affect the precision of maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimated individual parameters, yet the influence of inclusion of IOV in optimal design for estimation of individual parameters has not been investigated. In this work two methods of including IOV in the maximum a posteriori Fisher information matrix (FIMMAP) are evaluated: (i) MAP occ-the IOV is included as a fixed effect deviation per occasion and individual, and (ii) POP occ-the IOV is included as an occasion random effect. Sparse sampling schedules were designed for two test models and compared to a scenario where IOV is ignored, either by omitting known IOV (Omit) or by mimicking a situation where unknown IOV has inflated the IIV (Inflate). Accounting for IOV in the FIMMAP markedly affected the designs compared to ignoring IOV and, as evaluated by stochastic simulation and estimation, resulted in superior precision in the individual parameters. In addition MAPocc and POP occ accurately predicted precision and shrinkage. For the investigated designs, the MAP occ method was on average slightly superior to POP occ and was less computationally intensive.

Purpose: To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of bevacizumab, its binding properties to VEGF165 and the effect of demographic data and VEGF-A polymorphisms on the interplay between bevacizumab serum pharmacokinetics and VEGF165 serum concentrations in patients with colorectal cancer stage IV., Methods: Bevacizumab and VEGF165 data were collected from 19 adult patients with metastatic colorectal cancer enrolled in an observational clinical study. Bevacizumab was administered with one of the following combinations: 5-FU/Leucovorin/Irinotecan, 5-FU/Leucovorin/Oxaliplatin, Capecitabine/Irinotecan at doses ranging from 5 to 10 mg/kg every 2 or 3 weeks. Data analysis was performed using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling implemented in NONMEM 7.3., Results: A target-mediated drug disposition model adequately described bevacizumab concentration changes over time and its binding characteristics to VEGF165. The estimated clearance of bevacizumab was 0.18 L/day, the free VEGF165 levels at baseline were 212 ng/L, and the elimination rate constant of free VEGF165 was 0.401 day(-1). Body weight was allometrically included in all PK parameters., Conclusion: The final model adequately described the pre- and post-dose concentrations of total bevacizumab and free VEGF165 in patients with colorectal cancer. Model parameters were consistent with those previously reported for patients with solid tumors. Correlations between the binding affinity of bevacizumab and the VEGF-2578C/A and VEGF-634G/C polymorphisms were noticed.

In oncology trials, overall survival (OS) is considered the most reliable and preferred endpoint to evaluate the benefit of drug treatment. Other relevant variables are also collected from patients for a given drug and its indication, and it is important to characterize the dynamic effects and links between these variables in order to improve the speed and efficiency of clinical oncology drug development. However, the drug-induced effects and causal relationships are often difficult to interpret because of temporal differences. To address this, population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling and parametric time-to-event (TTE) models are becoming more frequently applied. Population PKPD and TTE models allow for exploration towards describing the data, understanding the disease and drug action over time, investigating relevance of biomarkers, quantifying patient variability and in designing successful trials. In addition, development of models characterizing both desired and adverse effects in a modelling framework support exploration of risk-benefit of different dosing schedules. In this review, we have summarized population PKPD modelling analyses describing tumour, tumour marker and biomarker responses, as well as adverse effects, from anticancer drug treatment data. Various model-based metrics used to drive PD response and predict OS for oncology drugs and their indications are also discussed., (© 2013 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The British Pharmacological Society.)

Trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) is an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) therapeutic for treatment of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive cancers. The T-DM1 dose product contains a mixture of drug-to-antibody ratio (DAR) moieties whereby the small molecule DM1 is chemically conjugated to trastuzumab antibody. The pharmacokinetics (PK) underlying this system and other ADCs are complex and have not been elucidated. Accordingly, we have developed two PK modeling approaches from preclinical data to conceptualize and understand T-DM1 PK, to quantify rates of DM1 deconjugation, and to elucidate the link between trastuzumab, T-DM1, and DAR measurements. Preclinical data included PK studies in rats (n = 34) and cynomolgus monkeys (n = 18) at doses ranging from 0.3 to 30 mg/kg and in vitro plasma stability. T-DM1 and total trastuzumab (TT) plasma concentrations were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Individual DAR moieties were measured by affinity capture liquid chromatography-mass spectrophotometry. Two PK modeling approaches were developed for T-DM1 using NONMEM 7.2 software: a mechanistic model fit simultaneously to TT and DAR concentrations and a reduced model fit simultaneously to TT and T-DM1 concentrations. DAR moieties were well described with a three-compartmental model and DM1 deconjugation in the central compartment. DM1 deconjugated fastest from the more highly loaded trastuzumab molecules (i.e., DAR moieties that are ≥3 DM1 per trastuzumab). T-DM1 clearance (CL) was 2-fold faster than TT CL due to deconjugation. The two modeling approaches provide flexibility based on available analytical measurements for T-DM1 and a framework for designing ADC studies and PK-pharmacodynamic modeling of ADC efficacy- and toxicity-related endpoints.

Aims: Although genetic, clinical and demographic factors have been shown to explain approximately half of the inter-individual variability in warfarin dose requirement in adults, less is known about causes of dose variability in children. This study aimed to identify and quantify major genetic, clinical and demographic sources of warfarin dose variability in children using modelling and simulation., Methods: Clinical, demographic and genetic data from 163 children with a median age of 6.3 years (range 0.06-18.9 years), covering over 183 years of warfarin therapy and 6445 INR observations were used to update and optimize a published adult pharmacometric warfarin model for use in children., Results: Genotype effects in children were found to be comparable with what has been reported for adults, with CYP2C9 explaining up to a four-fold difference in dose (CYP2C9 *1/*1 vs. *3/*3) and VKORC1 explaining up to a two-fold difference in dose (VKORC1 G/G vs. A/A), respectively. The relationship between bodyweight and warfarin dose was non-linear, with a three-fold difference in dose for a four-fold difference in bodyweight. In addition, age, baseline and target INR, and time since initiation of therapy, but not CYP4F2 genotype, had a significant impact on typical warfarin dose requirements in children., Conclusions: The updated model provides quantitative estimates of major clinical, demographic and genetic factors impacting on warfarin dose variability in children. With this new knowledge more individualized dosing regimens can be developed and prospectively evaluated in the pursuit of improving both efficacy and safety of warfarin therapy in children., (© 2013 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The British Pharmacological Society.)

Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modeling and simulation has evolved as an important tool for rational drug development and drug use, where developed models characterize both the typical trends in the data and quantify the variability in relationships between dose, concentration, and desired effects and side effects. In parallel, rapid emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria imposes new challenges on modern health care. Models that can characterize bacterial growth, bacterial killing by antibiotics and immune system, and selection of resistance can provide valuable information on the interactions between antibiotics, bacteria, and host. Simulations from developed models allow for outcome predictions of untested scenarios, improved study designs, and optimized dosing regimens. Today, much quantitative information on antibiotic PKPD is thrown away by summarizing data into variables with limited possibilities for extrapolation to different dosing regimens and study populations. In vitro studies allow for flexible study designs and valuable information on time courses of antibiotic drug action. Such experiments have formed the basis for development of a variety of PKPD models that primarily differ in how antibiotic drug exposure induces amplification of resistant bacteria. The models have shown promise for efficacy predictions in patients, but few PKPD models describe time courses of antibiotic drug effects in animals and patients. We promote more extensive use of modeling and simulation to speed up development of new antibiotics and promising antibiotic drug combinations. This review summarizes the value of PKPD modeling and provides an overview of the characteristics of available PKPD models of antibiotics based on in vitro, animal, and patient data.

Purpose: Numerous studies have investigated causes of warfarin dose variability in adults, whereas studies in children are limited both in numbers and size. Mechanism-based population modelling provides an opportunity to condense and propagate prior knowledge from one population to another. The main objectives with this study were to evaluate the predictive performance of a theoretically bridged adult warfarin model in children, and to compare accuracy in dose prediction relative to published warfarin algorithms for children., Method: An adult population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model for warfarin, with CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotype, age and target international normalized ratio (INR) as dose predictors, was bridged to children using allometric scaling methods. Its predictive properties were evaluated in an external data set of children 0-18 years old, including comparison of dose prediction accuracy with three pharmacogenetics-based algorithms for children., Results: Overall, the bridged model predicted INR response well in 64 warfarin-treated Swedish children (median age 4.3 years), but with a tendency to overpredict INR in children ≤2 years old. The bridged model predicted 20 of 49 children (41 %) within ± 20 % of actual maintenance dose (median age 7.2 years). In comparison, the published dosing algorithms predicted 33-41 % of the children within ±20 % of actual dose. Dose optimization with the bridged model based on up to three individual INR observations increased the proportion within ±20 % of actual dose to 70 %., Conclusion: A mechanism-based population model developed on adult data provides a promising first step towards more individualized warfarin therapy in children.

Prolactin elevation is a side effect of all currently available D(2) receptor antagonists used in the treatment of schizophrenia. Prolactin elevation is the result of a direct antagonistic D(2) effect blocking the tonic inhibition of prolactin release by dopamine. The aims of this work were to assess the correlation between in vitro estimates of D(2) receptor affinity and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model-based estimates obtained from analysis of clinical data using an agonist-antagonist interaction (AAI) model and to assess the value of such a correlation in early prediction of full prolactin time profiles. A population model describing longitudinal prolactin data was fitted to clinical data from 16 clinical phases 1 and 3 trials including five different compounds. Pharmacokinetic data were modeled for each compound and the prolactin model was both fitted in per-compound fits as well as simultaneously to all prolactin data. Estimates of prolactin elevating potency were compared to corresponding in vitro values and their predictability was evaluated through model-based simulations. The model successfully described the prolactin time course for all compounds. Estimates derived from experimental preclinical data and the model fit of the clinical data were strongly correlated (p<0.001), and simulations adequately predicted the prolactin elevation in five out of six compounds. The AAI model has the potential to be used in drug development to predict prolactin response for a given exposure of D(2) antagonists using routinely produced preclinical data.

Purpose: Interpatient variability in the pharmacokinetics (PK) of cytarabine, etoposide, and daunorubicin following body surface area-adjusted doses calls for studies that point to other covariates to explain this variability. The purpose of this study was to investigate such relationships and give insights into the PK of this combination treatment., Methods: A prospective population PK study of twenty-three patients with acute myeloid leukemia was undertaken. Plasma concentrations of patients were determined by high-pressure liquid chromatography. PK models were developed with NONMEM; for daunorubicin, PK information from a prior study was utilized., Results: Baseline white blood cell count (bWBC) influenced the PK for all drugs. A small, statistically insignificant improvement in model fit was achieved when a relationship between bWBC and daunorubicin central volume of distribution was included. The volume increased 1.9% for each increase in bWBC by 1 × 10(6) cells/mL. The clearances of etoposide and cytarabine were significantly increased and decreased, respectively, by increased bWBC. Tenfold changes in bWBC were needed for these relationships to have potential clinical relevance. A decrease in creatinine clearance of 60 mL/min resulted in a decrease in etoposide clearance of 32%., Conclusions: Population-based models characterized the PK for all three drugs. bWBC was a significant covariate for etoposide and cytarabine and showed a trend for daunorubicin. Linking the significant bWBC relationships and the relationship between kidney function and etoposide clearance to clinical end points would support dose individualization. Patients with above-normal creatinine clearances and high bWBC may receive sub-optimal treatment due to elevated etoposide clearances.

In cancer chemotherapy neutropenia is a common dose-limiting toxicity. An ability to predict the neutropenic effects of cytotoxic agents based on proposed trial designs and models conditioned on previous studies would be valuable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of a semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model for myelosuppression to predict the neutropenia observed in Phase I clinical studies, based on parameter estimates obtained from prior trials. Pharmacokinetic and neutropenia data from 5 clinical trials for diflomotecan and from 4 clinical trials for indisulam were used. Data were analyzed and simulations were performed using the population approach with NONMEM VI. Parameter sets were estimated under the following scenarios: (a) data from each trial independently, (b) pooled data from all clinical trials and (c) pooled data from trials performed before the tested trial. Model performance in each of the scenarios was evaluated by means of predictive (visual and numerical) checks. The semi-mechanistic PK/PD model for neutropenia showed adequate predictive ability for both anti-cancer agents. For diflomotecan, similar predictions were obtained for the three scenarios. For indisulam predictions were better when based on data from the specific study, however when the model parameters were conditioned on data from trials performed prior to a specific study, similar predictions of the drug related-neutropenia profiles and descriptors were obtained as when all data were used. This work provides further indication that modeling and simulation tools can be applied in the early stages of drug development to optimize future trials.

The formulation vehicle Cremophor EL has previously been shown to affect paclitaxel kinetics, but it is not known whether it also affects the kinetics of paclitaxel metabolites. This information may be important for understanding paclitaxel metabolism in vivo and in the investigation of the role of genetic polymorphisms in the metabolizing enzymes CYP2C8 and CYP3A4/CYP3A5 and the ABCB1 transporter. In this study we used the population pharmacokinetic approach to explore the influence of predicted Cremophor EL concentrations on paclitaxel (Taxol) metabolites. In addition, correlations between genetic polymorphisms and enzyme activity with clearance of paclitaxel, its two primary metabolites, 6α-hydroxypaclitaxel and p-3'-hydroxypaclitaxel, and its secondary metabolite, 6α-p-3'-dihydroxypaclitaxel were investigated. Model building was based on 1156 samples from a study with 33 women undergoing paclitaxel treatment for gynecological cancer. Total concentrations of paclitaxel were fitted to a model described previously. One-compartment models characterized unbound metabolite concentrations. Total concentrations of 6α-hydroxypaclitaxel and p-3'-hydroxypaclitaxel were strongly dependent on predicted Cremophor EL concentrations, but this association was not found for 6α-p-3'-dihydroxypaclitaxel. Clearance of 6α-hydroxypaclitaxel (fraction metabolized) was significantly correlated (p < 0.05) to the ABCB1 allele G2677T/A. Individuals carrying the polymorphisms G/A (n = 3) or G/G (n = 5) showed a 30% increase, whereas individuals with polymorphism T/T (n = 8) showed a 27% decrease relative to those with the polymorphism G/T (n = 17). The correlation of G2677T/A with 6α-hydroxypaclitaxel has not been described previously but supports other findings of the ABCB1 transporter playing a part in paclitaxel metabolism.

Aims: The tolerance to the prolactin response following administration of antipsychotic drugs has been modelled as a depletion of a prolactin pool (pool model) and a model where the tolerance is explained by a feedback loop including the dopamine interaction of prolactin release (agonist-antagonist interaction model, (AAI model)). The AAI model was superior to the pool model when analyzing data from clinical trials of risperidone and paliperidone. Here we evaluated the two models using the remoxipride data, designed to challenge the short-term prolactin response, from which the original pool model was built., Methods: The remoxipride data were collected from a study where eight healthy male subjects received two remoxipride infusions on five occasions. The intervals between the first and second dose on each occasion were 2, 8, 12, 24 and 48 h, respectively. The pool and AAI models were fitted using NONMEM., Results: According to the objective function values the pool model with a circadian rhythm function fitted the data slightly better, while the AAI model was better in describing the circadian rhythm of prolactin. Visual predictive checks revealed that the models predicted the prolactin profiles equally well., Conclusions: According to the analysis performed here, a previous analysis of several clinical studies and literature reports on prolactin concentrations, it appears that the dopamine feedback mechanism included in the AAI model is better than the storage depletion mechanism in the pool model to estimate the bio-rhythm of prolactin time-course and the tolerance development across different populations, drugs, treatment schedules and time., (© 2010 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2010 The British Pharmacological Society.)

Aim: To investigate the potential of a model for chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression to predict the full time-course of myelosuppression in patients based on rat data., Methods: White blood cell counts were determined in rats after administration of 5-fluorouracil, epirubicin, cyclophosphamide, docetaxel, paclitaxel or etoposide. Pharmacokinetic models were used to predict the concentration-time profile in each rat. A semi-physiological model of myelosuppression was applied to the rat data. The drug-related parameter Slope was allowed to differ between drugs. The analysis was performed in NONMEM VI. Time-courses of myelosuppression in patients were predicted for each drug based on patient pharmacokinetic models, typical system-related parameters previously determined in patients and the rat Slope estimates in the present study., Results: The semi-physiological model of myelosuppression fit the rat data well and the estimated maturation time in rats (53 h) was approximately half of the previous estimate in patients. The relative difference in Slope estimates for rats and patients based on total drug concentrations ranged between 28% to 8-fold for the six drugs. The differences reduced to 8-37% for all drugs when correcting the rat Slope estimates for species difference in protein binding and in CFU-GM assay sensitivity., Conclusions: This method for interspecies scaling was successful in predicting the time-course of myelosuppression in patients based on rat data. Predictions improved when species differences in protein binding and CFU-GM assay sensitivity were accounted for. The approach appears promising for predicting myelosuppression in patients early in development.

Purpose: A previously developed semi-physiological model of chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression has shown consistent system-related parameter and inter-individual variability (IIV) estimates across drugs. A requirement for dose individualization to be useful is relatively low variability between treatment courses (inter-occasion variability [IOV]) in relation to IIV. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare magnitudes of IOV and IIV in myelosuppression model parameters across six different anti-cancer drug treatments., Methods: Neutrophil counts from several treatment courses following therapy with docetaxel, paclitaxel, epirubicin-docetaxel, 5-fluorouracil-epirubicin-cyclophosphamide, topotecan, and etoposide were included in the analysis. The myelosuppression model was fitted to the data using NONMEM VI. IOV in the model parameters baseline neutrophil counts (ANC0), mean transit time through the non-mitotic maturation chain (mean transit time [MTT]), and the parameter describing the concentration-effect relationship (slope), were evaluated for statistical significance (P < 0.001)., Results: Inter-occasion variability in MTT was significant for all the investigated datasets, except for topotecan, and was of similar magnitude (8-16 CV%). IOV in slope was significant for docetaxel, topotecan, and etoposide (19-39 CV%). For all six investigated datasets, the IOV in myelosuppression parameters was lower than the IIV. There was no indication of systematic shifts in the system- or drug sensitivity-related parameters over time across datasets., Conclusion: This study indicates that the semi-physiological model of chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression has potential to be used for prediction of the time-course of myelosuppression in future courses and is, thereby, a valuable step towards individually tailored anticancer drug therapy.

One of the most employed approaches to reduce severe neutropenia following anticancer drug regimens is to reduce the consecutive dose in fixed steps, commonly by 25%. Another approach has been to use pharmacokinetic (PK) sampling to tailor dosing, but only rarely have model-based computer approaches utilizing collected PK and/or pharmacodynamic (PD) data been used. A semi-mechanistic model for myelosuppression that can characterize the interindividual and interoccasion variability in the time-course of neutrophils following administration of a wide range of anticancer drugs may be used in a clinical setting for model-based dose individualization. The aim of this study was to compare current stepwise procedures to model-based dose adaptation by simulations, and investigate if the overall dose intensity in the population could be increased without increasing the risk of severe toxicity. The value of various amounts of PK- and/or PD-information was compared to standard dosing strategies using a maximum a posteriori procedure in NONMEM. The results showed that when information on neutrophil counts was available, the additional improvement from PK sampling was negligible. Using neutrophil sampling at baseline and an observation near the predicted nadir increased the number of patients in the target range by 27% in comparison with a one-sided 25% dose adjustment schedule, while keeping the number of patients experiencing severe toxicity at a comparable low level after five courses of treatment. High interindividual variability did not limit the benefit of model-based dose adaptation, whereas high interoccasion variability was predicted to make any dose adaptation method less successful. This study indicates that for successful model-based dose adaptation clinically, there is no need for drug concentration sampling, and that one extra neutrophil measurement in addition to the pre-treatment value is sufficient to limit severe neutropenia while increasing dose intensity.

Physiologically based modelling of pharmacodynamics/toxicodynamics requires an a priori knowledge on the underlying mechanisms causing toxicity or causing the disease. In the context of cancer, the objective of the expert meeting was to discuss the molecular understanding of the disease, modelling approaches used so far to describe the process, preclinical models of cancer treatment and to evaluate modelling approaches developed based on improved knowledge. Molecular events in cancerogenesis can be detected using 'omics' technology, a tool applied in experimental carcinogenesis, but also for diagnostics and prognosis. The molecular understanding forms the basis for new drugs, for example targeting protein kinases specifically expressed in cancer. At present, empirical preclinical models of tumour growth are in great use as the development of physiological models is cost and resource intensive. Although a major challenge in PKPD modelling in oncology patients is the complexity of the system, based in part on preclinical models, successful models have been constructed describing the mechanism of action and providing a tool to establish levels of biomarker associated with efficacy and assisting in defining biologically effective dose range selection for first dose in man. To follow the concentration in the tumour compartment enables to link kinetics and dynamics. In order to obtain a reliable model of tumour growth dynamics and drug effects, specific aspects of the modelling of the concentration-effect relationship in cancer treatment that need to be accounted for include: the physiological/circadian rhythms of the cell cycle; the treatment with combinations and the need to optimally choose appropriate combinations of the multiple agents to study; and the schedule dependence of the response in the clinical situation.

Objective: To develop guidelines for the management of QT prolongation after citalopram overdose, including decontamination with single-dose activated charcoal (SDAC) and cardiac monitoring., Design: Simulation study using a previously developed pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model which predicted the time-course of QT prolongation and the effect of citalopram dose and use of SDAC on QT prolongation., Main Measures and Results: The previously developed PKPD model was used to address the following in patients following citalopram overdose: (1) Above what dose should patients be decontaminated? (2) Above what dose should patients have cardiac monitoring? (3) For what period of time should patients be monitored? The primary outcome was QT,RR combinations above an abnormal threshold as a surrogate predictor of torsades de pointes. Simulations were performed using MATLAB for an overdose patient with typical demographics: 30-year-old female with a heart rate of 79 bpm taking citalopram therapeutically. The simulations showed: (1) There was significant benefit associated with the administration of SDAC to patients following citalopram overdose ingesting >600 mg; (2) With citalopram overdoses >1,000mg it was advisable to give SDAC and cardiac monitor the patient; (3) The risk of developing future abnormal QT,RR combinations was less than 1% in patients with normal QT,RR combinations up to 13 h post-dose, so the minimum monitoring time for citalopram overdoses >1,000mg should be 13h. Recommended dose levels for intervention should be lowered in older patients and patients with tachycardia, while men are less sensitive to QT prolongation., Conclusions: Guidelines for the management of QT prolongation after citalopram overdose were developed. We believe the model will help clinicians to decide which patients to decontaminate and monitor.

Aims: To develop a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model describing the time-course of QT interval prolongation after citalopram overdose and to evaluate the effect of charcoal on the relative risk of developing abnormal QT and heart-rate combinations., Methods: Plasma concentrations and electrocardiograph (ECG) data from 52 patients after 62 citalopram overdose events were analysed in WinBUGS using a Bayesian approach. The reported doses ranged from 20 to 1700 mg and on 17 of the events a single dose of activated charcoal was administered. The developed pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model was used for predicting the probability of having abnormal combinations of QT-RR, which was assumed to be related to an increased risk for torsade de pointes (TdP)., Results: The absolute QT interval was related to the observed heart rate with an estimated individual heart-rate correction factor [alpha = 0.36, between-subject coefficient of variation (CV) = 29%]. The heart-rate corrected QT interval was linearly dependent on the predicted citalopram concentration (slope = 40 ms l mg(-1), between-subject CV = 70%) in a hypothetical effect-compartment (half-life of effect-delay = 1.4 h). The heart-rate corrected QT was predicted to be higher in women than in men and to increase with age. Administration of activated charcoal resulted in a pronounced reduction of the QT prolongation and was shown to reduce the risk of having abnormal combinations of QT-RR by approximately 60% for citalopram doses above 600 mg., Conclusion: Citalopram caused a delayed lengthening of the QT interval. Administration of activated charcoal was shown to reduce the risk that the QT interval exceeds a previously defined threshold and therefore is expected to reduce the risk of TdP.

As myelosuppression is the dose-limiting toxicity for most chemotherapeutic drugs, modelers attempt to find relationships between drug and toxicity to optimize treatment. Mechanistic models, i.e. models based on physiology and pharmacology, are preferable over empirical models, as prior information can be utilized and as they generally are more reliable for extrapolations. To account for different dosing-regimens and possible schedule-dependent effects, the whole concentration-time profile should be used as input into the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model. It is also of importance to model the whole time course of myelosuppression to be able to predict both the degree and duration of toxicity as well as consecutive courses of therapy. A handful of (semi)-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models with the above properties have been developed and are reviewed. Ideally, a model of myelosuppression should separate drug-specific parameters from system related parameters to be applicable across drugs and useful under different clinical settings. Introduction of mechanistic models of myelosuppression in the design and evaluation of clinical trials can guide in the decision of optimal sampling times, contribute to knowledge of optimal doses and treatment regimens at an earlier time point and identify sub-groups of patients at a high risk of myelosuppression.

Purpose: To develop a semimechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model describing chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression through drug-specific parameters and system-related parameters, which are common to all drugs., Patients and Methods: Patient leukocyte and neutrophil data after administration of docetaxel, paclitaxel, and etoposide were used to develop the model, which was also applied to myelosuppression data from 2'-deoxy-2'-methylidenecytidine (DMDC), irinotecan (CPT-11), and vinflunine administrations. The model consisted of a proliferating compartment that was sensitive to drugs, three transit compartments that represented maturation, and a compartment of circulating blood cells. Three system-related parameters were estimated: baseline, mean transit time, and a feedback parameter. Drug concentration-time profiles affected the proliferation of sensitive cells by either an inhibitory linear model or an inhibitory E(max) model. To evaluate the model, system-related parameters were fixed to the same values for all drugs, which were based on the results from the estimations, and only drug-specific parameters were estimated. All modeling was performed using NONMEM software., Results: For all investigated drugs, the model successfully described myelosuppression. Consecutive courses and different schedules of administration were also well characterized. Similar system-related parameter estimates were obtained for the different drugs and also for leukocytes compared with neutrophils. In addition, when system-related parameters were fixed, the model well characterized chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression for the different drugs., Conclusion: This model predicted myelosuppression after administration of one of several different chemotherapeutic drugs. In addition, with fixed system-related parameters to proposed values, and only drug-related parameters estimated, myelosuppression can be predicted. We propose that this model can be a useful tool in the development of anticancer drugs and therapies.