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Polygenic adaptation is thought to be ubiquitous, yet remains poorly understood. Here, we model this process analytically, in the plausible setting of a highly polygenic, quantitative trait that experiences a sudden shift in the fitness optimum. We show how the mean phenotype changes over time, depending on the effect sizes of loci that contribute to variance in the trait, and characterize the allele dynamics at these loci. Notably, we describe the two phases of the allele dynamics: The first is a rapid phase, in which directional selection introduces small frequency differences between alleles whose effects are aligned with or opposed to the shift, ultimately leading to small differences in their probability of fixation during a second, longer phase, governed by stabilizing selection. As we discuss, key results should hold in more general settings and have important implications for efforts to identify the genetic basis of adaptation in humans and other species., Competing Interests: LH, GS No competing interests declared, (© 2022, Hayward and Sella.)

Mutation rates and spectra differ among human populations. Here, we examine whether this variation could be explained by evolution at mutation modifiers. To this end, we consider genetic modifier sites at which mutations, "mutator alleles," increase genome-wide mutation rates and model their evolution under purifying selection due to the additional deleterious mutations that they cause, genetic drift, and demographic processes. We solve the model analytically for a constant population size and characterize how evolution at modifier sites impacts variation in mutation rates within and among populations. We then use simulations to study the effects of modifier sites under a plausible demographic model for Africans and Europeans. When comparing populations that evolve independently, weakly selected modifier sites (2Nes≈1), which evolve slowly, contribute the most to variation in mutation rates. In contrast, when populations recently split from a common ancestral population, strongly selected modifier sites (2Nes≫1), which evolve rapidly, contribute the most to variation between them. Moreover, a modest number of modifier sites (e.g. 10 per mutation type in the standard classification into 96 types) subject to moderate to strong selection (2Nes>1) could account for the variation in mutation rates observed among human populations. If such modifier sites indeed underlie differences among populations, they should also cause variation in mutation rates within populations and their effects should be detectable in pedigree studies., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Genetics Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Many traits of interest are highly heritable and genetically complex, meaning that much of the variation they exhibit arises from differences at numerous loci in the genome. Complex traits and their evolution have been studied for more than a century, but only in the last decade have genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in humans begun to reveal their genetic basis. Here, we bring these threads of research together to ask how findings from GWASs can further our understanding of the processes that give rise to heritable variation in complex traits and of the genetic basis of complex trait evolution in response to changing selection pressures (i.e., of polygenic adaptation). Conversely, we ask how evolutionary thinking helps us to interpret findings from GWASs and informs related efforts of practical importance.

Human genome-wide association studies (GWASs) are revealing the genetic architecture of anthropomorphic and biomedical traits, i.e., the frequencies and effect sizes of variants that contribute to heritable variation in a trait. To interpret these findings, we need to understand how genetic architecture is shaped by basic population genetics processes-notably, by mutation, natural selection, and genetic drift. Because many quantitative traits are subject to stabilizing selection and because genetic variation that affects one trait often affects many others, we model the genetic architecture of a focal trait that arises under stabilizing selection in a multidimensional trait space. We solve the model for the phenotypic distribution and allelic dynamics at steady state and derive robust, closed-form solutions for summary statistics of the genetic architecture. Our results provide a simple interpretation for missing heritability and why it varies among traits. They predict that the distribution of variances contributed by loci identified in GWASs is well approximated by a simple functional form that depends on a single parameter: the expected contribution to genetic variance of a strongly selected site affecting the trait. We test this prediction against the results of GWASs for height and body mass index (BMI) and find that it fits the data well, allowing us to make inferences about the degree of pleiotropy and mutational target size for these traits. Our findings help to explain why the GWAS for height explains more of the heritable variance than the similarly sized GWAS for BMI and to predict the increase in explained heritability with study sample size. Considering the demographic history of European populations, in which these GWASs were performed, we further find that most of the associations they identified likely involve mutations that arose shortly before or during the Out-of-Africa bottleneck at sites with selection coefficients around s = 10-3.

Mutations can originate from the chance misincorporation of nucleotides during DNA replication or from DNA lesions that arise between replication cycles and are not repaired correctly. We introduce a model that relates the source of mutations to their accumulation with cell divisions, providing a framework for understanding how mutation rates depend on sex, age, and cell division rate. We show that the accrual of mutations should track cell divisions not only when mutations are replicative in origin but also when they are non-replicative and repaired efficiently. One implication is that observations from diverse fields that to date have been interpreted as pointing to a replicative origin of most mutations could instead reflect the accumulation of mutations arising from endogenous reactions or exogenous mutagens. We further find that only mutations that arise from inefficiently repaired lesions will accrue according to absolute time; thus, unless life history traits co-vary, the phylogenetic "molecular clock" should not be expected to run steadily across species.

Human populations have undergone major changes in population size in the past 100,000 years, including recent rapid growth. How these demographic events have affected the burden of deleterious mutations in individuals and the frequencies of disease mutations in populations remains unclear. We use population genetic models to show that recent human demography has probably had little impact on the average burden of deleterious mutations. This prediction is supported by two exome sequence data sets showing that individuals of west African and European ancestry carry very similar burdens of damaging mutations. We further show that for many diseases, rare alleles are unlikely to contribute a large fraction of the heritable variation, and therefore the impact of recent growth is likely to be modest. However, for those diseases that have a direct impact on fitness, strongly deleterious rare mutations probably do have an important role, and recent growth will have increased their impact.

The most common models of sequence evolution used to make inferences about adaptation rely on the assumption that selective pressures at a site remain constant through time. Instead, one might plausibly imagine that a change in the environment renders an allele beneficial and that when it fixes, the site is now constrained-until another change in the environment occurs that affects the selective pressures at that site. With this view in mind, we introduce a simple dynamic model for the evolution of coding regions, in which non-synonymous sites alternate between being fixed for the favored allele and being neutral with respect to other alleles. We use the pruning algorithm to derive closed forms for observable patterns of polymorphism and divergence in terms of the model parameters. Using our model, estimates of the fraction of beneficial substitutions α would remain similar to those obtained from existing approaches. In this framework, however, it becomes natural to ask how often adaptive substitutions originate from previously constrained or previously neutral sites, i.e., about the source of adaptive substitutions. We show that counts of coding sites that are both polymorphic in a sample from one species and divergent between two others carry information about this parameter. We also extend the basic model to include the effects of weakly deleterious mutations and discuss the importance of assumptions about the distribution of deleterious mutations among constrained non-synonymous sites. Finally, we derive a likelihood function for the parameters and apply it to a toy example, variation data for coding regions from chromosome 2 of the Drosophila melanogaster subgroup. This modeling work underscores how restrictive assumptions about adaptation have been to date, and how further work in this area will help to reveal unexplored and yet basic characteristics of adaptation., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Because nearly neutral substitutions are thought to contribute substantially to molecular evolution, and much of our insight about the workings of nearly neutral evolution relies on theory, solvable models of this process are of particular interest. Here, I present an analytical method for solving models of nearly neutral evolution at steady state. The steady state solution applies to any constant fitness landscape under a dynamic of successive fixations, each of which occurs on the background of the population's most recent common ancestor. Because this dynamic neglects the effects of polymorphism in the population beyond the mutant allele under consideration, the steady state solution provides a decent approximation of evolutionary dynamics when the population mutation rate is low (Nu<<1). To demonstrate the method, I apply it to two examples: Fisher's geometric model (FGM), and a simple model of molecular evolution. Since recent papers have studied the steady state behavior of FGM under this dynamic, I analyze its behavior in detail and compare the results with previous work.

The standard genetic code poses a challenge in understanding the evolution of information processing at a fundamental level of biological organization. Genetic codes are generally coadapted with, or 'frozen' by, the protein-coding genes that they translate, and so cannot easily change by natural selection. Yet the standard code has a significantly non-random pattern that corrects common errors in the transmission of information in protein-coding genes. Because of the freezing effect and for other reasons, this pattern has been proposed not to be due to selection but rather to be incidental to other evolutionary forces or even entirely accidental. We present results from a deterministic population genetic model of code-message coevolution. We explicitly represent the freezing effect of genes on genetic codes and the perturbative effect of changes in genetic codes on genes. We incorporate characteristic patterns of mutation and translational error, namely, transition bias and positional asymmetry, respectively. Repeated selection over small successive changes produces genetic codes that are substantially, but not optimally, error correcting. In particular, our model reproduces the error-correcting patterns of the standard genetic code. Aspects of our model and results may be applicable to the general problem of adaptation to error in other natural information-processing systems.

The Standard Genetic Code is organized such that similar codons encode similar amino acids. One explanation suggested that the Standard Code is the result of natural selection to reduce the fitness "load" that derives from the mutation and mistranslation of protein-coding genes. We review the arguments against the mutational load-minimizing hypothesis and argue that they need to be reassessed. We review recent analyses of the organization of the Standard Code and conclude that under cautious interpretation they support the mutational load-minimizing hypothesis. We then present a deterministic asexual model with which we study the mode of selection for load minimization. In this model, individual fitness is determined by a protein phenotype resulting from the translation of a mutable set of protein-coding genes. We show that an equilibrium fitness may be associated with a population with the same genetic code and that genetic codes that assign similar codons to similar amino acids have a higher fitness. We also show that the number of mutant codons in each individual at equilibrium, which determines the strength of selection for load minimization, reflects a long-term evolutionary balance between mutations in messages and selection on proteins, rather than the number of mutations that occur in a single generation, as has been assumed by previous authors. We thereby establish that selection for mutational load minimization acts at the level of an individual in a single generation. We conclude with comments on the shortcomings and advantages of load minimization over other hypotheses for the origin of the Standard Code.

We simulate a deterministic population genetic model for the coevolution of genetic codes and protein-coding genes. We use very simple assumptions about translation, mutation, and protein fitness to calculate mutation-selection equilibria of codon frequencies and fitness in a large asexual population with a given genetic code. We then compute the fitnesses of altered genetic codes that compete to invade the population by translating its genes with higher fitness. Codes and genes coevolve in a succession of stages, alternating between genetic equilibration and code invasion, from an initial wholly ambiguous coding state to a diversified frozen coding state. Our simulations almost always resulted in partially redundant frozen genetic codes. Also, the range of simulated physicochemical properties among encoded amino acids in frozen codes was always less than maximal. These results did not require the assumption of historical constraints on the number and type of amino acids available to codes nor on the complexity of proteins, stereochemical constraints on the translational apparatus, nor mechanistic constraints on genetic code change. Both the extent and timing of amino-acid diversification in genetic codes were strongly affected by the message mutation rate and strength of missense selection. Our results suggest that various omnipresent phenomena that distribute codons over sites with different selective requirements--such as the persistence of nonsynonymous mutations at equilibrium, the positive selection of the same codon in different types of sites, and translational ambiguity--predispose the evolution of redundancy and of reduced amino acid diversity in genetic codes.