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Permissible pollution bearing capacity was an important basis for the prohibiting pollution discharge and assessing responsibility in the regional water function zone. In order to adapt to the current 'county-based' water environmental management mode in water function zone, we exami-ned the permissible pollution bearing capacity from the perspective of municipal permissible pollution discharge. A municipal pollution discharge model was established to predict the permissible pollution bearing capacity, which was then applied to Liquan and Jingyang counties in the downstream of Jinghe River. The results showed that the permissible pollution discharge in Liquan and Jingyang counties were closely related to the river discharge, with the permissible pollution discharge in the flood season being higher than that in the dry season. The COD concentration in the water function zone of Liquan County exceeded water quality target from November to next March. Therefore, the pollution discharge in this period of Liquan County should be reduced. The value of the pollution discharge would affect the results for the calculation of permissible pollution bearing capacity. The municipal wastewater discharge model could obtain more reasonable results of permissible pollution bearing capacity by using relatively stable pollution concentration data. Overall, our results could provide the scientific basis for the strict system of water resource management.

Structural equation models (SEMs) are widely recognized as the most important statistical tool for assessing the interrelationships among latent variables. This study develops a Bayesian adaptive group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator procedure to perform simultaneous model selection and estimation for semiparametric SEMs, wherein the structural equation is formulated using the additive nonparametric functions of observed and latent variables. We propose the use of basis expansions to approximate the unknown functions. By introducing adaptive penalties to the groups of basis expansions, the nonlinear, linear, or non-existent effects of observed and latent variables in the structural equation can be automatically detected. A simulation study demonstrates that the proposed method performs satisfactorily. This paper presents an application of revealing the observed and latent risk factors of diabetic kidney disease., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In behavioral, biomedical, and psychological studies, structural equation models (SEMs) have been widely used for assessing relationships between latent variables. Regression-type structural models based on parametric functions are often used for such purposes. In many applications, however, parametric SEMs are not adequate to capture subtle patterns in the functions over the entire range of the predictor variable. A different but equally important limitation of traditional parametric SEMs is that they are not designed to handle mixed data types-continuous, count, ordered, and unordered categorical. This paper develops a generalized semiparametric SEM that is able to handle mixed data types and to simultaneously model different functional relationships among latent variables. A structural equation of the proposed SEM is formulated using a series of unspecified smooth functions. The Bayesian P-splines approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are developed to estimate the smooth functions and the unknown parameters. Moreover, we examine the relative benefits of semiparametric modeling over parametric modeling using a Bayesian model-comparison statistic, called the complete deviance information criterion (DIC). The performance of the developed methodology is evaluated using a simulation study. To illustrate the method, we used a data set derived from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

Structural equation models (SEMs) have become widely used to determine the interrelationships between latent and observed variables in social, psychological, and behavioural sciences. As heterogeneous data are very common in practical research in these fields, the analysis of mixture models has received a lot of attention in the literature. An important issue in the analysis of mixture SEMs is the presence of missing data, in particular of data missing with a non-ignorable mechanism. However, only a limited amount of work has been done in analysing mixture SEMs with non-ignorable missing data. The main objective of this paper is to develop a Bayesian approach for analysing mixture SEMs with an unknown number of components and non-ignorable missing data. A simulation study shows that Bayesian estimates obtained by the proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are accurate and the Bayes factor computed via a path sampling procedure is useful for identifying the correct number of components, selecting an appropriate missingness mechanism, and investigating various effects of latent variables in the mixture SEMs. A real data set on a study of job satisfaction is used to demonstrate the methodology.

In behavioral, biomedical, and social-psychological sciences, it is common to encounter latent variables and heterogeneous data. Mixture structural equation models (SEMs) are very useful methods to analyze these kinds of data. Moreover, the presence of missing data, including both missing responses and missing covariates, is an important issue in practical research. However, limited work has been done on the analysis of mixture SEMs with non-ignorable missing responses and covariates. The main objective of this paper is to develop a Bayesian approach for analyzing mixture SEMs with an unknown number of components, in which a multinomial logit model is introduced to assess the influence of some covariates on the component probability. Results of our simulation study show that the Bayesian estimates obtained by the proposed method are accurate, and the model selection procedure via a modified DIC is useful in identifying the correct number of components and in selecting an appropriate missing mechanism in the proposed mixture SEMs. A real data set related to a longitudinal study of polydrug use is employed to illustrate the methodology.

In the development of structural equation models (SEMs), observed variables are usually assumed to be normally distributed. However, this assumption is likely to be violated in many practical researches. As the non-normality of observed variables in an SEM can be obtained from either non-normal latent variables or non-normal residuals or both, semiparametric modeling with unknown distribution of latent variables or unknown distribution of residuals is needed. In this article, we find that an SEM becomes nonidentifiable when both the latent variable distribution and the residual distribution are unknown. Hence, it is impossible to estimate reliably both the latent variable distribution and the residual distribution without parametric assumptions on one or the other. We also find that the residuals in the measurement equation are more sensitive to the normality assumption than the latent variables, and the negative impact on the estimation of parameters and distributions due to the non-normality of residuals is more serious. Therefore, when there is no prior knowledge about parametric distributions for either the latent variables or the residuals, we recommend making parametric assumption on latent variables, and modeling residuals nonparametrically. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian approach using the truncated Dirichlet process with a stick breaking prior to tackle the non-normality of residuals in the measurement equation. Simulation studies and a real data analysis demonstrate our findings, and reveal the empirical performance of the proposed methodology. A free WinBUGS code to perform the analysis is available in Supporting Information.

Structural equation modelling has been widely applied in behavioural, educational, medical, social, and psychological research. The classical maximum likelihood estimate is vulnerable to outliers and non-normal data. In this paper, a robust estimation method for the nonlinear structural equation model is proposed. This method gives more weight to data that are likely to occur based on the structure of the posited model, and effectively downweights the influence of outliers. An algorithm is proposed to obtain the robust estimator. Asymptotic properties of the proposed method are investigated, which include the asymptotic distribution of the estimator, and some statistics for hypothesis testing. Results from a simulation study and a real data example show that our procedure is effective.

Recently, structural equation models (SEMs) have been applied for analyzing interrelationships among observed and latent variables in biological and medical research. Latent variables in these models are typically assumed to have a normal distribution. This article considers a Bayesian semparametric SEM with covariates, and mixed continuous and unordered categorical variables, in which the explanatory latent variables in the structural equation are modeled via an appropriate truncated Dirichlet process with a stick-breaking procedure. Results obtained from a simulation study and an analysis of a real medical data set are presented to illustrate the methodology.

Structural equation models (SEMs) have been widely applied to examine interrelationships among latent and observed variables in social and psychological research. Motivated by the fact that correlated discrete variables are frequently encountered in practical applications, a non-linear SEM that accommodates covariates, and mixed continuous, ordered, and unordered categorical variables is proposed. Maximum likelihood methods for estimation and model comparison are discussed. One real-life data set about cardiovascular disease is used to illustrate the methodologies.

The analysis of longitudinal data to study changes in variables measured repeatedly over time has received considerable attention in many fields. This paper proposes a two-level structural equation model for analyzing multivariate longitudinal responses that are mixed continuous and ordered categorical variables. The first-level model is defined for measures taken at each time point nested within individuals for investigating their characteristics that are changed with time. The second level is defined for individuals to assess their characteristics that are invariant with time. The proposed model accommodates fixed covariates, nonlinear terms of the latent variables, and missing data. A maximum likelihood (ML) approach is developed for the estimation of parameters and model comparison. Results of a simulation study indicate that the performance of the ML estimation is satisfactory. The proposed methodology is applied to a longitudinal study concerning cocaine use.

Latent variables play the most important role in structural equation modeling. In almost all existing structural equation models (SEMs), it is assumed that the distribution of the latent variables is normal. As this assumption is likely to be violated in many biomedical researches, a semiparametric Bayesian approach for relaxing it is developed in this paper. In the context of SEMs with covariates, we provide a general Bayesian framework in which a semiparametric hierarchical modeling with an approximate truncation Dirichlet process prior distribution is specified for the latent variables. The stick-breaking prior and the blocked Gibbs sampler are used for efficient simulation in the posterior analysis. The developed methodology is applied to a study of kidney disease in diabetes patients. A simulation study is conducted to reveal the empirical performance of the proposed approach. Supplementary electronic material for this paper is available in Wiley InterScience at http://www.mrw.interscience.wiley.com/suppmat/1097-0258/suppmat/., ((c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

There is now increasing evidence proving that many complex diseases can be significantly influenced by correlated phenotype and genotype variables, as well as their interactions. Effective and rigorous assessment of such influence is difficult, because the number of phenotype and genotype variables of interest may not be small, and a genotype variable is an unordered categorical variable that follows a multinomial distribution. To address the problem, we establish a novel nonlinear structural equation model for analysing mixed continuous and multinomial data that can be missing at random. A confirmatory factor analysis model with Kronecker product is proposed for grouping the manifest continuous and multinomial variables into latent variables according to their functions; and a nonlinear structural equation is formulated to assess the linear and interaction effects of the independent latent variables to the dependent latent variables. Bayesian methods for estimation and model comparison are developed through Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques and path sampling. The newly developed methodologies are applied to a case-control cohort of type 2 diabetic patients with nephropathy., (Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

A general two-level latent variable model is developed to provide a comprehensive framework for model comparison of various submodels. Nonlinear relationships among the latent variables in the structural equations at both levels, as well as the effects of fixed covariates in the measurement and structural equations at both levels, can be analyzed within the framework. Moreover, the methodology can be applied to hierarchically mixed continuous, dichotomous, and polytomous data. A Monte Carlo EM algorithm is implemented to produce the maximum likelihood estimate. The E-step is completed by approximating the conditional expectations through observations that are simulated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, while the M-step is completed by conditional maximization. A procedure is proposed for computing the complicated observed-data log likelihood and the BIC for model comparison. The methods are illustrated by using a real data set.

The main purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian approach for the multisample factor analysis model with continuous and polytomous variables. Joint Bayesian estimates of the thresholds, the factor scores and the structural parameters subjected to some simple constraints across groups are obtained simultaneously. The Gibbs sampler is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates. It is shown that the conditional distributions involved in the implementation are the familiar uniform, gamma, normal, univariate truncated normal and Wishart distributions. The Bayes factor is introduced to test hypotheses involving constraints among the structural parameters of the factor analysis models across groups. Two procedures for computing the test statistics are developed, one based on the Schwarz criterion (or Bayesian information criterion), while the other computes the posterior densities and likelihood ratios by means of draws from the appropriate conditional distributions via the Gibbs sampler. The empirical performance of the proposed Bayesian procedure and its sensitivity to prior distributions are illustrated by some simulation results and two real-life examples.