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The February issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue we also consider how global imbalances in the world economy have changed since the start of the millennium in the context of the abating crisis period. The crisis has been reflected not only in a considerable worsening of the largest economies’ external positions (current account balances), but also in a deterioration of their domestic fiscal positions (public finance balances). Thus, an intensification of the twin deficit phenomenon is significantly complicating the process of reducing global imbalances in the world economy.

Document contains latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. The Spotlight article "Brazil's ways out of crisis" focuses on economic and monetary developments in Brazil, which hosted this year’s Summer Olympic Games but whose economy is going through a deep recession. In our Selected Speech, the President and CEO of the St. Louis Fed James Bullard provides a new characterisation of the US economic outlook.

The aim of thesis is to analyze the development of the national economy of Iceland in the period 1994-2013. In addition to the reasons for the collapse of the banking sector thesis examines the way the state handled the situation. The theoretical part deals with the theory of the national economy, the characteristics of the main macroeconomic aggregates, the current banking system and selected theories of the business cycle. The practical part presents economic and political characteristics of Iceland. It is followed by main analysis divided into two periods, each of which contains an analysis of the legal framework, institutional provision, development of key macroeconomic aggregates and a separate chapter devoted to the development of the banking sector. Research suggests that the overheating of the economy occurred due to the extreme expansion of the banking sector, expansionary fiscal policy and inappropriate monetary policy of the central bank. The State had to seek the help of the International Monetary Fund during the crisis. There has been introduction of capital controls to stabilize the exchange rate. The state let the banking sector go bankrupt and created new domestic banks. Subsequently fiscal indicators were stabilized, but not at the expense of the needy and households. The business cycle in Iceland is best described by the Financial instability hypothesis.

This thesis tries to describe origin of Icelandic crisis from 2008 and tries to explain whether it was caused by liberalisation of Icelandic market or by excessive monetary and fiscal interventions. Analysis of behaviour of free market subjects and analysis of policy of central bank and government couldn't clearly accept or reject the hypotheses that the crisis was caused by liberalisation. On the other hand the thesis sees chosen policy of government and central bank as a main contributor to the break out of the crisis. This assumption is in accordance with theoretical and practical study of most important monetary and fiscal interventions implemented in Iceland

This thesis tries to describe government help to economy during the period of crisis in years 2006 -- 2013 in USA and Iceland with regard to Austrian business cycle theory. This thesis stands critical toward connection of fiscal and monetary policy and their activist policy because this policy was one of the causes of economical fluctuation in last years. Help of fiscal policy connected with monetary policy took primarily form of providing liquidity to financial sector and granting government guarantees to financial institutions and bailing out their risky assets. Regulatory measures are subjected to closer analysis and are commented according to data analysis.

The magister thesis makes comparison of monetary causes of the crises in 1970s and the current crises in the United States of America. On the basis of theoretical part that analyzes the Austrian theory of the business cycle derives work in analytical part the consequences of monetary policy on the economy in both of observed periods. Through the use of history of monetary policy finds the thesis advice for solution to current crises. The thesis analyzes monetary instruments of American central bank and explains the mechanism of transfer of money into the economy. In the terms of current economic debates the thesis conclusion answers the question if or on what condition can actual situation of the economy of the United States of America leads in stagflation development.

The master thesis analyses potential impacts of introduction of the quantitative easing by the Czech National Bank as a new monetary instrument in the Czech Republic, which would be used as a means of fight against the economic cycle. Instruments which a central bank can use in the area of monetary policy become limited in the era of major interest rates inclining to zero. Power of conventional means becomes insufficient. As a result, more and more central banks consider introduction of a relatively new instrument -- quantitative easing which is applied e.g. by the FED or the ECB at present. The main goal of the thesis is to assess advantages and disadvantages of introduction of quantitative easing by the Czech National Bank and its ability to influence the economic cycle when basic principles of quantitative easing are applied on a real small opened economy. The output should present analysis and assessment of costs and benefits arising from introduction of quantitative easing. Actual data from the economies, where the quantitative easing has been applied, are analyzed in the thesis. The results of the analysis are used as a basis for creation of a simple universal model of functioning of quantitative easing which is after customizing according to specifics of the Czech economy, applied to the Czech Republic. Three possible scenarios of development of economy after introduction of quantitative easing by the CNB were developed on the basis of the model which differs from each other as they relate to a different phase of economic cycle.

This work tries to describe and compare causes of the dot-com crisis and the subprime crisis with regard to Austrian business cycle theory. This work stands critical towards activistic monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System, which was one of the causes of the dot-com crisis in the year 2001 and the Subprime crisi in the year 2008, which lead into economic recession of recent years. Above mentioned economic fluctuations are subjected to closer analysis and are commented on the basis of studying press releases of the committee of the Federal Reserve System.

This work makes an effort to find main causes of recent crisis in the countries of Eurozone with regard to Austrian Business Cycle Theory. This work stands critical towards integrated monetary policy of the European Central Bank which through unitary interest rate for heterogenous economics facilitated excessive amount of loans for countries like Spain or Irleand, which according to Austrian theory led into economic recession. Chosen countries are subjected to closer analysis of economic indicators for entire period in the monetary union.

Latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. Spotlight: „Financial stability from the monetary policy perspective“. Selected speech: „Dealing with debt“ by Alan Bollard (Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand).

The thesis aims to defend the irreplaceable role of the Austrian business cycle theory in explaining the current financial crisis in the U.S.. Attention is also paid to applied measures of American economic policies and their impact on the elimination of the purification process of the recession. Furthermore, the work deals with the identification of preventive measures, which would reduce the likelihood of the occurrence of economic cycles. Recommendations by representatives of the Austrian School are described as difficult to implement on the basis of number of arguments. In the work are therefore proposed more realistic measures to limit the volatility of the economic cycle, which emanate mainly from the composite price index, which is the subject of this text. The index reflects the price development in all stages of production and should therefore in monetary policy matters replace the current use of price indicators, based on the inflated scale of consumption, taking into account only minimal effects of monetary expansion. The work deals with the calculation of the composite price index for the United States, which used the instrument of Skounsen indicator of gross domestic output. The development of the composite price index in the US is then analyzed and compared with the development of other macroeconomic variables. Based on this examination, we recommend the use of composite price index for monetary policy regime of inflation targeting and the implementation thereof by the Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The diploma thesis clarifies main causes of the mortgage market meltdown in the USA as a starter to the global financial problems. The objective of the thesis is to analyze the American mortgage and housing market price bubble according to the views of the Austrian school of economics, which claims that problems were caused by inappropriate intervention of the U.S. Federal Government, Federal Reserve System and other government institutions in the markets. Furthermore, the thesis criticize the actions and measures taken by the U.S. government to stabilize the economy, which only seeks to alleviate the consequences, not to prevent the causes. Last chapter of the thesis analyze the impact of the subsequent financial crisis and global economic downturn on financial market, real economy and international trade of Czech republic.

Document contains latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. The Spotlight article: „Exit strategy from non-conventional monetary policy“. Selected speech: „Small lessons from a big crisis“ was presented by Andrew G. Haldane (Bank of England).