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We develop a quantitative model with imperfections in domestic and international financial markets that generates strong effects of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets (EMs). Financial imperfections prevent arbitrage both between local EM lending and borrowing rates, and between local-currency and dollar borrowing rates. An adverse feedback effect between financial health and external conditions amplifies the domestic "financial accelerator," leading to large cross-border spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks. The model implies a link between uncovered interest parity violations and local credit spreads, a prediction we show the data strongly supports. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relative significance of oil supply, oil demand, and monetary policy shocks in explaining US macroeconomic variations. We analyze impulse response functions and variance decomposition to assess the relative importance of these shocks. Using a Bayesian structural VAR framework and the penalty function approach, we identify the shocks of interest. We find that oil supply shocks explain less than 3% of the variation in output, but have a relatively larger impact on inflation, accounting for around 13% of the inflation variation. Oil demand shocks explain 3% of output variation, but contribute significantly to inflation variation (around 16%). In contrast, monetary policy shocks have a greater influence on output, explaining approximately 13% of the observed variation. Monetary policy shocks are also the most influential source of inflation variation, contributing over 24% to the overall variation. Based on historical variance decomposition, we find that the recent inflation surge is attributable to both monetary expansion and oil supply factors. Overall, the study highlights the dominance of monetary policy shocks in explaining US macroeconomic fluctuations, with oil supply and demand shocks playing secondary roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article evaluates the interactions between housing, the credit market, and the ECB's asset purchase program (APP) from 2015 until 2020 and then in the course of the ECB's pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) in 2020. The model is calibrated for the euro area. The findings illustrate the way in which macrohousing channels affect bank portfolio rebalancing which is the main channel for asset purchases to influence the economy. The results show that asset purchasing performs better during a crisis, particularly if it is conducted for an appropriate extent of time. The findings suggest that the PEPP alone is not sufficient to accelerate recovery. As a result, further actions such as timely targeted fiscal policies are required to step up recovery. However, to protect the financial sector, the PEPP should be extended until the Covid-19 crisis phase is over. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the relative importance of fiscal and monetary policy shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in the United States. Using a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model, we identify fiscal and monetary policy shocks based on a penalty function approach. We find that monetary policy shocks are relatively more important than fiscal policy shocks in explaining key macroeconomic variations and especially inflation variations. Our results provide evidence in support of a monetarist explanation of US business cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops an estimated New Keynesian model of a commodity-exporting economy for an integrated policy framework, integrating the full range of policies used in practice and featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, macro-financial linkages, and transmission channels of external shocks. We jointly examine the optimal conduct of conventional and unconventional monetary policies, macroprudential policy, foreign exchange intervention, capital flow management, and fiscal policy based on the model. The policy analysis framework is applied empirically to Mongolia, a small open and developing economy highly dependent on imports and commodity exports. We find that an eclectic policy mix improves policy trade-offs and a lack of cooperation among policy authorities may result in conflicting policies, hence suboptimal results for overall economic stability. Our optimal policy analysis shows that policy mix adjustments should differ depending on the type of shocks and the policy objectives. The results suggest that the policy analysis framework can help policymakers choose their policy mix adjustments to deal with external shocks in an integrated and optimal way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses an estimated Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model to evaluate the quantitative importance of two channels in driving aggregate consumption fluctuations in the US: (i) precautionary savings against unemployment risk and (ii) MPC heterogeneity. I find that MPC heterogeneity is the dominant channel because a large fraction of households are close to the borrowing limit. The empirical average MPC target in HANK generates counterfactually volatile aggregate consumption, and thus makes it more difficult for the estimated model to match the persistence of the aggregate data, indicating an MPC puzzle. This is because the likelihood‐based estimation favors a low degree of nominal rigidity and responsive monetary policy in the HANK model to reduce the discrepancy between consumption volatility in the model and in the data. The low degree of nominal rigidity and responsive monetary policy reduce the persistence of endogenous variables in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determinacy properties and conditions of equilibrium solution have been the subject of growing discussion and research in macroeconomics. Following in the footsteps of previous studies, we analyze determinacy in the baseline open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Gali and Monacelli in Rev Econ Stud 72(3):707–734 (Oxford University Press) (2005). We find that the open economy structure causes multifaceted behaviors in the system creating extra challenges for policy making. The degree of openness significantly affects determinacy properties of equilibrium under various forms and timing of monetary policy rules. Conditions for the uniqueness and local stability of equilibria are established. Determinacy diagrams are constructed to display the regions of unique and multiple equilibria. Numerical analyses are performed to confirm the theoretical results. Limit cycles and periodic behaviors are possible, but in some cases only for unrealistic parameter settings. Complex structures of open economies require rigorous policy design to achieve optimality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expectations are among the main driving forces for economic dynamics. Therefore, managing expectations has become a primary objective for monetary policy seeking to stabilize the business cycle. In this paper, we study whether central banks can manage private-sector expectations by means of publishing one-period ahead inflation projections in a New Keynesian learning-to-forecast experiment. Subjects in the experiment observe these projections along with the historic development of the economy and subsequently submit their own one-period ahead inflation forecasts. In this context, we find that the central bank can significantly manage private-sector expectations and that this management strongly supports monetary policy in stabilizing the economy. Moreover, published central bank inflation projections drastically reduce the probability of a deflationary spiral after strong negative shocks to the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition for instruments separately using likelihood ratio tests, and facilitates the economic interpretation of the structural shock of interest. We test alternative instruments and find that narrative and model‐based measures are valid, while high‐frequency data instruments show signs of invalidity. Finally, we document that monetary shocks identified with both a valid instrument and heteroskedasticity have larger effects on production and prices than monetary shocks identified via an instrument only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hiring is a costly activity reflecting firms' investment in their workers. Microdata show that hiring costs involve production disruption. Thus, cyclical fluctuations in the value of output, induced by price frictions, have consequences for the optimal allocation of hiring activities. We outline a mechanism based on cyclical markup fluctuations, placing emphasis on hiring frictions interacting with price frictions. This mechanism generates strong propagation and amplification of all key macroeconomic variables in response to technology shocks and mutes the traditional transmission of monetary policy shocks. A local projection analysis of aggregate U.S. data shows that the empirical results, including the cyclicality of markups, are consistent with the model's impulse response functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wall Street analysts recently voiced concerns over how the current Bullwhip Effect complicating supply chains (especially retailers) could also complicate the Federal Reserve's strategy for reducing inflation. Retailers continued to rebuild inventories even as inflation began and as consumers adjusted to a changing set of consumption opportunities related to the evolution of risks associated with emerging from COVID restrictions and the resulting availability of goods and services. To gauge the potential impact of the BWE on inflation, its severity is first established by analyzing U.S. Census Bureau seasonally adjusted average monthly sales and inventory holdings data for U.S. general merchandising retailers (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022, https://www.census.gov/mtis/index.html). [Extracted from the article]

Traditional macroeconomic stabilization policies seek to moderate swings in economic activity through measures that primarily augment aggregate demand. Such measures are, however, inadequate in mitigating the comprehensive effects of crisis such as the COVID-19, which affects both the demand and supply sides of the economy. Moreover, monetary policies are presently close to a liquidity trap combined with weakened transmission links to the real economy. Fiscal policies have been reactivated, albeit in an ad hoc and experimental manner. Based on a literature review and the policy responses following the COVID-19 crisis, the objective is to present a modified and extended framework for stabilization policies. In particular, the importance of microeconomic supply-side measures that promote entrepreneurial processes and knowledge-upgrading efforts are emphasized. Furthermore, a coherent realigning of policies at the micro- and macro-levels is argued to enhance the potential for long-term growth and to facilitate the restructuring of an economy that normally follows a crisis. Plain English Summary: The COVID-19 crisis makes traditional stabilization policies obsolete. Reinstate the market and redirect policy from interest rates and unconditional state support toward providing employees and firms with adequate knowledge for future challenges. Traditional crises policies seek to moderate swings in economic activity by primarily lowering interest rates and increase governmental expenditure to stimulate demand and economic activity. However, the effectiveness of both of these measures has been questioned, in particular, further reductions in already extremely low-interest rates. The present COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the importance of taking firms, entrepreneurs, trade, etc., into account, i.e., the supply side of the economy. It is argued that traditional policies should partly be replaced by measures targeting entrepreneurial processes, firm growth, innovation, and knowledge upgrading. Corporate taxes should be used to increase firms' crisis resilience, increase investment, and encourage start-ups, while state support should be conditioned on employees engaging in knowledge upgrading. Hence, the main conclusion of this study is that such redirection of policies will more effectively level out swings in the business cycle, increase the potential for long-term growth, and make it easier for employees and firms to adjust to new economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We take a practical approach to model the forward-looking monetary policy rule. Unlike existing studies, we recognize that the forward-looking components—future inflation and output growth—are intrinsically unobserved at the time policy formulation. Using the unobserved components framework, we extract the latent components of the policy rule from the short-term and long-term Greenbook forecasts, both individually and in combination, and jointly estimate the policy parameters. We also consider correlations between different components and combine the forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters and the inflation index bonds market. Evidence suggests that the Federal Reserve follows an inflation-tilted policy rule and the long-term state of economy gets a higher weight than the short term. Also, the policy reaction is more aggressive when interconnections between different components of the policy rule are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In locally linearized dynamic stochastic rational‐expectations models, I introduce the concepts of feasible paths (paths on which the policy instrument can be expressed as a function of the policymaker's observation set) and implementable paths (paths that can be obtained, in a minimally robust way, as the unique local equilibrium under a policy‐instrument rule consistent with the policymaker's observation set). I show that, for relevant observation sets, the optimal feasible path under monetary policy can be non‐implementable in the new Keynesian model, while constant‐debt feasible paths under tax policy are always implementable in the real business cycle model. The first result sounds a note of caution about one of the main lessons of the new Keynesian literature, namely the importance for central banks to track some key unobserved exogenous rates of interest, while the second result restores to some extent the role of income or labor‐income taxes in safely stabilizing public debt. For any given implementable path, I show how to design arithmetically a policy‐instrument rule consistent with the policymaker's observation set and implementing this path as the robustly unique local equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Apart from general business cycles, market economies are characterized by their specific cycles, which also include banking cycles. Fluctuations whose sequence over time creates the banking cycles are absolute or/and relative changes in the activity of banks, manifested in the form of oscillations in the supply of money and bank credits granted for investment or consumption purposes.

How and under what circumstances can adjusting the inflation target serve as a stabilization‐policy tool and contribute to welfare improvement? We answer these questions quantitatively with a standard New Keynesian model that includes cost‐push‐type shocks. Our proposed inflation target rule calls for the target to be adjusted in a persistent manner and in the opposite direction to the realization of a cost‐push shock, which is essentially a makeup strategy. The inflation target rule, combined with a Taylor‐type rule, significantly reduces inflation fluctuations originating from cost‐push shocks and mitigates the stabilization trade‐off, resulting in a similar level of welfare to that associated with the Ramsey optimal policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We pursue an empirical strategy to identify a monetary news shock in the U.S. economy. We use a monetary policy residual, along with other variables in a vector autoregression (VAR), and identify a monetary news shock as the linear combination of reduced‐form innovations that is orthogonal to the current residual and that maximizes the sum of contributions to its forecast error variance over a finite horizon. Real GDP declines in a persistent manner after a positive monetary news shock. This contraction in economic activity is accompanied by a fall in inflation and a rapid increase in the nominal interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze the use of macroprudential policies in a low interest rate environment, where an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint gives rise to aggregate demand externalities. We study this issue by using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions and a monetary policy rule that is subject to the ZLB. We find that, in a low interest rate environment, the occasionally binding ZLB creates additional scope for macroprudential intervention. When the interest rate is high and the two policies can perfectly coordinate, the optimal policy prescriptions behave as if they were independent. This is, however, no more the case, when the interest rate is low and/or when monetary policy and macroprudential policy cannot be perfectly coordinating. This more complex policy environment calls for more policy coordination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the role of financial frictions and the conduct of monetary policy in Uganda. It makes use of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which incorporates small open-economy features and financial frictions that are introduced though the activities of heterogeneous agents in the household. Most of the parameters in the model are estimated with the aid of Bayesian techniques and quarterly macroeconomic data from 2000q1 to 2015q4. The results suggest that the central bank currently responds to changes in the interest rate spread, despite the fact that capital and financial markets are relatively inefficient in this low-income country. In addition, the analysis also suggests that to reduce macroeconomic volatility, the central bank should continue to respond to these financial sector frictions and that it may be possible to derive a more favourable sacrifice ratio by making use of a slightly more aggressive response to macroeconomic developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the balanced growth paths and their stability features of a monetary two-sector endogenous growth model with physical capital and human capital accumulation. The demand of money is motivated on the ground of a fractional cash-in-advance constraint on consumption expenditures and on those in the investment in physical capital. We consider, in sequence, two monetary rules implemented by the Central Bank. First, we assume that the latter pegs the money growth rate and then the nominal interest rate according to a Taylor feedback rule. When the Central Bank pegs the money growth rate, there emerges a unique balanced growth path which turns out to be indeterminate for a low amplitude of the liquidity constraint and/or for a low enough intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption even under the hypothesis that the cash-in-advance constraint applies uniquely on consumption expenditures. On the other hand, when the monetary policy is implemented according to a Taylor feedback rule, an unintended liquidity trap equilibrium may coexist with multiple interior Taylor equilibria. If, on the one hand, the liquidity trap equilibrium is bound to be locally determinate; on the other hand, the Taylor interior equilibrium may become locally indeterminate provided the cash-in-advance constraint applies also on the investment in physical capital good and under a physical capital intensive human capital good. A global analysis is performed in which we show that the Taylor equilibrium and the liquidity trap one are connected through a heteroclinic orbit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a structural near-VAR to examine the effect of monetary shocks on industry-level job creation and job destruction. I find asymmetry in the job flows' responses to a positive monetary shock for disaggregated industries in the manufacturing, mining and services sectors. These findings indicate that monetary shocks trigger changes in job reallocation and point that monetary policy has important allocative effects. Yet, a test for the absence of job reallocation reveals that monetary shocks have a significant effect on job reallocation for a limited number of industries within these sectors. Moreover, this effect becomes largely insignificant after accounting for data mining. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structural DSGE models are used for analyzing both policy and the sources of business cycles. Conclusions based on full structural models are, however, potentially affected by misspecification. A competing method is to use partially identified SVARs based on narrative shocks. This paper asks whether both approaches agree. Specifically, I use narrative data in a DSGE‐SVAR that partially identify policy shocks in the VAR and assess the fit of the DSGE model relative to this narrative benchmark. In developing this narrative DSGE‐SVAR, I develop a tractable Bayesian approach to proxy VARs and show that such an approach is valid for models with a certain class of Taylor rules. Estimating a DSGE‐SVAR based on a standard DSGE model with fiscal rules and narrative data, I find that the DSGE model identification is at odds with the narrative information as measured by the marginal likelihood. I trace this discrepancy to differences in impulse responses, identified historical shocks and policy rules. The results indicate monetary accommodation of fiscal shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the performance of different sector rotation strategies for the US and European market spanning the period 1999–2019. By utilising three different strategies, we shed further light on the effectiveness of interest rate, momentum and Fama–French three- and five-factor alphas as switching signals to enter and exit a particular sector. The emerging evidence suggests that within the European market, sector rotation strategies tend to produce returns above the average benchmark, both during contractionary and expansionary monetary policy regimes, while excessive returns within both the US and European markets are observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the impact of housing market spillovers on a small open economy, namely South Africa, using a small open economy new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which explicitly incorporates a housing sector. Using quarterly data covering the period of 1971:Q1–2015:Q3, we obtain the following set of results: (a) over the business cycle, the housing preference shock and the technology shock in the consumption sector drive most of the fluctuations of real house price; (b) the spillover effects of the housing market to the boarder economy are not negligible; (c) the central bank of South Africa has actively responded to house price movements over the past 45 years; and (d) the flexible exchange rate policy has helped South Africa maintain the macroeconomic stability to a large extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the inflation targets of central banks in many advanced economies despite an unprecedented monetary expansion. Ten years after the Global Financial Crisis, GDP remains below its pre-crisis trend in many economies and interest rates continue to be very low. This raises the question of whether low GDP growth and low interest rates are a temporary phenomenon or are due to a decline in long-run growth prospects (potential output growth) and equilibrium real interest rates (natural interest rate). Addressing this question is important for central banks for conducting monetary policy and adjusting their strategy. In this paper, the authors address this question based on a review of the literature and an evaluation of the most recent data and discuss implications for monetary policy.

• This paper examines asymmetric effects of MP shocks on economic activity in Turkey. • Using Markov Switching Model, the paper uses both business cycle and credit cycles. • Economic activity responds asymmetrically to MP shocks. • Shocks during contractions are more significant than shocks during expansions. • The asymmetric effect is stronger when credit cycles determine the state of economy. In this paper, we examine the asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks on economic activity in Turkey. We use quarterly data for the gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production along with their sub-sectors for the 2006Q1–2017Q4 period. We implement a Markov Switching Model to endogenously determine the states of the economy with two different variables: we first use real aggregate GDP data to determine the expansionary or contractionary business cycles and then we use credit data to determine expansionary or contractionary credit cycles. We find that the monetary policy shocks have stronger effects on both the GDP, industrial production and their sub-components during contractionary periods, while the results are much weaker for the expansionary periods. Moreover, the asymmetric effects become more apparent when we use credit cycles for the determination of economic states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]