Search

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease of evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of future West African monsoon (WAM) precipitation change in response to increasing greenhouse gases are uncertain, and an improved understanding of the drivers of WAM precipitation change is needed to help aid model development and better inform adaptation policies in the region. This paper addresses one of those drivers, the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 (i.e., the impact of increased CO2 in the absence of SST warming and changes in plant physiology). An atmosphere-only model is used to examine both the equilibrium response and the evolution of the change over the days following the instantaneous CO2 increase. In response to the direct radiative effect, WAM precipitation increases due to a weakening of the shallow meridional circulation over North Africa, advecting less dry air into the convective column associated with the monsoon. Changes in the shallow circulation are associated with atmospheric and surface warming patterns over North Africa. A large-scale atmospheric warming pattern, whereby North Africa warms more than the monsoon region, leads to a northward shift in the Saharan heat low. In response to increased precipitation in the Sahel, local soil moisture feedbacks play a key role in determining the low-level circulation change and the location of the intertropical discontinuity. The large-scale warming patterns over North Africa result from differing levels of constraint applied by convective quasi-equilibrium. While this constraint acts strongly in the equatorial WAM region, preventing the region from warming in response to the direct radiative effect, North Africa is not strongly constrained and is therefore able to warm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asia summer monsoon transition zone, a unique area of transition from humid monsoon to arid continental climate, has the most prominent aridification in the world, and has experienced land surface aridification (LSA) in recent years. To investigate the influence of LSA on regional monsoon precipitation, two numerical experiments were run for vegetation degradation over a long period (30 years). Then, precipitation variation of different magnitudes was analyzed. After that, the mechanism of LSA influence on precipitation was studied. The results show that aridification reduced average summer precipitation by 5%. Additionally, LSA considerably changed the frequency of precipitation. Unlike aridification in North Africa caused by albedo variation, LSA in our study area mainly reduced surface thermal capacity, increased surface temperature, sharply increased the transport of surface sensible heat, and raised the atmospheric convective boundary layer. This reduces atmospheric moist static energy, which is not conducive to the generation of precipitation. LSA also increases the surface landscape gradient, local horizontal gradient of land surface turbulent flux, and probability of heavy convective precipitation. This paper reveals the mechanism by which land surface anomalies affect precipitation, which lays a foundation for follow-up studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of mid‐Pliocene boundary conditions on Afro‐Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) rainfall is examined using the fully coupled Earth System Model EC‐Earth3‐LR. Our focus lies on the effects of varying CO2 concentration, diminished ice sheets and vegetation dynamics. We find that the enhanced AfroASM rainfall is predominantly caused by the "warmer‐gets‐wetter" mechanism due to elevated CO2 levels. Additionally, the ice sheet, similar in size to that of the mid‐Pliocene era, creates several indirect effects. These include sea ice‐albedo feedback and inter‐hemispheric atmosphere energy transport. Such influences result in the southward shift of Hadley circulation and formation of Pacific‐Japan pattern, leading to reduced rainfall in North African and South Asian monsoon regions but increased rainfall in East Asian monsoon region. Interestingly, while dynamic vegetation feedback has a minimal direct effect on AfroASM rainfall, it significantly influences rainfall in the mid‐high latitudes of the North Hemisphere by enhancing water vapor feedback. Plain Language Summary: The mid‐Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) was a pre‐Quaternary warming period with similar high CO2 level as we have today. The period is often considered as an analog for future greenhouse driven climate projections. Previous studies indicate that the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) rainfall was more abundant then. However, the underlying mechanisms of relative contributions of boundary conditions on increased AfroASM rainfall remains to be clarified. Here, we use an Earth System Model, performed nine simulations to study the separate effects of CO2 level, ice sheets size, and vegetation dynamics on AfroASM rainfall patterns during the mid‐Pliocene. We found that (a) A rise in CO2 concentration during the mid‐Pliocene enhanced AfroASM rainfall through "warmer‐gets‐wetter" mechanism. (b) The dynamics of the ice sheet during this period, including both melting and distribution changes, contributed to more pronounced warming in South Hemisphere than the north due to ice‐albedo feedback. This change affected global atmospheric circulation, leading to decreased rainfall in North Africa and South Asia, but increased rainfall in East Asia. (c) We observed that during the mid‐Pliocene, vegetation expanded and move further north in the North Hemisphere. This increases summer rainfall at Northern mid‐high latitudes through local water vapor feedback. Key Points: Elevated CO2 levels during mid‐Pliocene increase Afro‐Asian summer monsoon rainfall mainly due to the "warmer‐gets‐wetter" mechanismMid‐Pliocene ice sheets changes favor to reduce North African/South Asian monsoon rainfall and increase East Asian monsoon rainfallDynamic vegetation feedback has less effect on Afro‐Asian monsoon, but more on mid‐high latitudes rainfall [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Idealized dynamical theories that employ a convective quasi-equilibrium (QE) treatment for the diabatic effects of moist convection have been used to explain the location, intensity, and intraseasonal evolution of monsoons. This paper examines whether observations of the earth’s regional monsoons are consistent with the assumption of QE. It is shown here that in local summer climatologies based on reanalysis data, maxima of free-tropospheric temperature are, indeed, nearly collocated with maxima of subcloud equivalent potential temperature, θeb, in all monsoon regions except the North and South American monsoons. Free-tropospheric temperatures over North Africa also exhibit a strong remote influence from the South Asian monsoon. Consistent with idealized dynamical theories, peak precipitation falls slightly equatorward of the maxima in θeb and free-tropospheric temperature in regions where QE seems to hold. Vertical structures of temperature and wind reveal two types of monsoon circulations. One is the deep, moist baroclinic circulation clearly seen in the South Asian monsoon. The other is of mixed type, with the deep moist circulation superimposed on a shallow dry circulation closely associated with boundary layer temperature gradients. While the existence of a shallow dry circulation has been documented extensively in the North African monsoon, here it is shown to also exist in Australia and southern Africa during the local summer. Analogous to moist QE theories for the deep circulation, the shallow circulation can be viewed in a dry QE framework in which shallow ascent occurs just equatorward of the peak boundary layer potential temperature, θb, providing a unified system where the poleward extents of deep and shallow circulations are bounded by maxima in θeb and θb, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate models with coarse horizontal resolution are largely unable to reproduce the monsoonal precipitation pattern over North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Here we present the first regional, storm-resolving simulations with an idealized but reasonable mid-Holocene vegetation cover. In these simulations, the West African monsoon expands farther north by about 4–5 ∘ , and the precipitation gradient between the Guinea coast and the Sahara decreases compared to simulations with a barren Sahara as it is today. The northward shift of monsoonal precipitation is caused by land surface–atmosphere interaction, i.e., the coupling of soil moisture and precipitation, as well as interactions of the land surface with the large-scale monsoon circulation (e.g., the African easterly jet). The response of the monsoon circulation to an increased vegetation cover is qualitatively similar but more pronounced in parameterized convection simulations. We attribute the differences in monsoonal precipitation to differences in soil moisture that are strongly controlled by runoff and precipitation characteristics. If precipitation is intense and falls over a spatially small region, as in our storm-resolving simulations, about 35 % of all precipitation water goes into runoff instead of filling soil moisture storage. In contrast, in light and spatially more homogeneous precipitation, as produced in our parameterized convection simulations, only some 20 % leaves the grid cell as runoff. Therefore, much more water is available to maintain high soil moisture content. We confirm the significant role of soil moisture and runoff by performing simulations with the same constant soil moisture field in both storm-resolving and parameterized convection simulations. These constant soil moisture simulations cancel the effect of lower soil moisture on the land–atmosphere feedback cycle in our storm-resolving simulations. We show that precipitation strongly increases in the storm-resolving simulations, especially in moisture-controlled regions, such as the northern Sahel and Sahara, and reaches equally high values as in parameterized convection simulations. Our study highlights how the type of rainfall (e.g., local and intense or widespread and light) impacts soil moisture and thus land–atmosphere feedbacks. This is contrary to many studies that focus mainly on the amount of rainfall and how it modifies land–atmosphere feedbacks. Moreover, this study suggests that comprehensive land-surface schemes, which appropriately respond to varying precipitation characteristics, are needed for studying land surface–atmosphere interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the 1990s, pronounced changes occurred in major climatological fields worldwide. In the Northern Hemisphere, regarding the major shifts in the dry and wet patterns, the mid-1990s decadal change occurred more rapidly in winter than in summer. What accompanied by this decadal change were the strengthened lower-tropospheric anticyclones over the subtropical Pacific Ocean and a northward shift of the midlatitude westerly jet stream across the Afro–Asia–Pacific region. Increased trade winds resulted in considerable sea surface cooling over the central and eastern Pacific regions. These circulation changes induced the poleward expansion of two boreal winter systems: convection over the Maritime Continent and dry conditions in North Africa and West Asia. Moreover, the weakening of the Arctic upper-tropospheric circulation further modulated the seasonal shift of the midlatitude jet stream. In boreal summer, the more gradual decadal change was associated with the westward shift of Asian monsoon and northward penetration of African monsoon. What used to be a substantial vertical coupling of the westerly flows above these two monsoons was weakened during the 1990s. Judging from the effects of these circulation changes, it appears that the different rate of change in the jet streams may have exerted a dynamic effect on the pace of the decadal change in different seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enhanced summer insolation over North Africa induced a monsoon precipitation increase during the mid-Holocene, about 6000 years ago, and led to a widespread expansion of lakes and wetlands in the present-day Sahara. This expansion of lakes and wetlands is documented in paleoenvironmental sediment records, but the spatially sparse and often discontinuous sediment records provide only a fragmentary picture. Previous simulation studies prescribed either a small lake and wetland extent from reconstructions or focused on documented mega-lakes only to investigate their effect on the mid-Holocene climate. In contrast to these studies, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes in response to a small-lake extent and a potential maximum lake and wetland extent. Our study shows that during the summer monsoon season, the African rain belt is shifted about 2 to 7 ∘ farther north in simulations with a maximum lake or wetland extent than in simulations with a small lake extent. This northward extent is caused by a stronger and prolonged monsoon rainfall season over North Africa which is associated with an increased monsoon precipitation over the southern Sahara and an increased precipitation from tropical plumes over the northwestern Sahara. Replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands causes an enhanced precipitation increase, which is likely due to the high surface roughness of the wetlands. A moisture budget analysis reveals that both lakes and wetlands cause a local precipitation increase not only by enhanced evaporation but also by a stronger inland moisture transport and local moisture recycling to the south of Lake Chad and the west Saharan lakes. Analysis of the dynamic response shows that lakes and wetlands cause a circulation response inverse to the one associated with the Saharan heat low. Depending on the latitudinal position of the lakes and wetlands, they predominantly cause a northward shift or a decay of the African Easterly Jet. These results indicate that the latitudinal position of the lakes and wetlands strongly affects the northward extension of the African summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insolation changes play an important role in driving monsoon changes at orbital time scales. One key issue that has remained outstanding is whether the Asian monsoon is driven by local insolation from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) or remote insolation from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) at orbital band. Here, we perform a set of sensitivity experiments to quantify the impacts of local and remote insolation changes on the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon at 11 ka BP relative to the present. We show that the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon is overwhelmingly driven by the precession induced local insolation change in the tropical‐subtropical NH. The insolation from NH high latitudes also affects the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon. In contrast, the insolation from SH plays a negligible role. Our model experiments support the idea that the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon are driven predominantly by the direct forcing of NH low latitudes summer insolation for the Holocene. Plain Language Summary: The Afro‐Asian summer monsoon response to solar insolation has been studied extensively both in observation evidences and model simulations. However, whether the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon is driven by local insolation from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and remote insolation from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) still remains an open question. This work, for the first time, systematically isolates local and remote insolation impacts on Afro‐Asian summer monsoon using insolation from 11 ka BP. Our study suggests that the Afro‐Asian summer monsoon is driven by local precession insolation change. The increased local summer insolation at 11 ka increases the land‐sea thermal contrast, migrating the subcloud moist static energy maximum and westerly jet northward. These processes lead to a belt of increased monsoon precipitation stretching from North Africa eastward into South and East Asia, resulting in enhanced monsoon circulation and precipitation. The remote insolation from NH high latitude can also drives the incremental Afro‐Asian summer monsoon precipitation but the magnitude is much smaller compared with local effect. The insolation from SH has negligible role. Our model experiments support the idea that NH summer monsoons are driven predominantly by the direct forcing of NH low latitudes summer insolation for the Holocene. Key Points: The first study to completely isolate the local and remote insolation effect on Afro‐Asian summer monsoon at geological timeThe Afro‐Asian summer monsoon during Holocene is driven by local precession forcing in the tropical‐subtropical Northern HemisphereThe "latent heat" hypothesis is not supported by this study [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructions of aeolian dust flux to West African margin sediments can be used to explore changing atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate over North Africa on millennial to orbital timescales. Here, we extend West African margin dust flux records back to 37 ka in a transect of sites from 19° to 27°N, and back to 67 ka at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 658C, in order to explore the interplay of orbital and high‐latitude forcings on North African climate and make quantitative estimates of dust flux during the core of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The ODP 658C record shows a Green Sahara interval from 60 to 50 ka during a time of high Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, with dust fluxes similar to levels during the early Holocene African Humid Period, and an abrupt peak in flux during Heinrich event 5a (H5a). Dust fluxes increase from 50 to 35 ka while the high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere cools, with peaks in dust flux associated with North Atlantic cool events. From 35 ka through the LGM dust deposition decreases in all cores, and little response is observed to low‐latitude insolation changes. Dust fluxes at sites from 21° to 27°N were near late Holocene levels during the LGM time slice, suggesting a more muted LGM response than observed from mid‐latitude dust sources. Records along the northwest African margin suggest important differences in wind responses during different stadials, with maximum dust flux anomalies centered south of 20°N during H1 and north of 20°N during the Younger Dryas. Plain Language Summary: Dust that is picked up by winds over North Africa and blown out into the Atlantic Ocean can tell us about climate change in the past, particularly about variations in wind strength and location, and how wet the continent was. This study uses seafloor sediments from four sites offshore of West Africa to reconstruct how much dust was blown out from North Africa over the last 67,000 years. The records show that the climate of North Africa is controlled by two major processes: changes to incoming energy from the sun on timescales of thousands of years, and the extent of cold conditions in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic region on timescales of hundreds of years. We find a time from 60,000 to 50,000 years ago of low dust export (weak winds and a wet continent) when incoming energy from the sun was high, with dust levels similar to those during the Green Sahara interval that occurred 11,000 to 5,000 years ago. This time of low dust export was interrupted around 54,500 years ago by a brief interval of extremely high dust export (strong winds and a dry continent) during a North Atlantic cold interval called Heinrich event 5a. Key Points: Coherent dust flux changes along the NW African margin and in the central North Atlantic over the last 67 kaAbrupt dust flux variations on millennial timescales similar to N Atlantic stadials related to high‐latitude forcing of African climateGreen Sahara interval (60–50 ka) recorded by low dust fluxes to ODP 658C showing an orbitally forced strengthening of monsoon during MIS 3 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The late Pliocene is a pre-Quaternary warming period compared to the preindustrial period. Here, based on the updated PRISM4 (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping version 4) boundary conditions from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2), seven experiments are conducted to simulate the global monsoon in the late Pliocene interglacial period and further investigate the impacts from changes in the individual boundary conditions by using the Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.0.4). The simulated late Pliocene interglacial climate is generally warmer and wetter than the preindustrial period climate, with an expanded monsoon domain, particularly in North Africa, Asia and Australia. The differences in topography, vegetation and lakes outside of Greenland and Antarctica account for the greatest contribution to monsoon changes. Moreover, orbital parameter variations further significantly affect monsoon domains and lead to significant fluctuations in monsoon precipitation and winds on the orbital scale, and the changed magnitude is even larger than that between the late Pliocene and preindustrial period when orbital forcing is not considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organic‐rich sapropel layers punctuate the eastern Mediterranean sedimentary sequence, recording deep‐sea anoxic events. The timing of sapropel deposition coincides with precession minima, which are associated with the northward migration of the monsoon rain belt over North Africa. The resultant increase in monsoon precipitation over the Sahara caused an increase in low‐δ18O freshwater runoff into eastern Mediterranean surface waters, which is reflected by negative δ18O anomalies in the records of planktic foraminiferal calcite. However, despite extensive research on sapropels, the magnitude of monsoon intensification and freshwater runoff, along with its influence on δ18O, remains elusive. Here, we present a quantification of African monsoon freshwater runoff into the eastern Mediterranean for the period of deposition of last interglacial sapropel S5 (~128.3–121.5 ka). Our method uses a box model of the Mediterranean Sea, which represents different water masses, and has been calibrated using δ18O from planktic foraminiferal species of different depth and seasonal habitats. The model was constrained with existing records of sea level and sea surface temperature then inverted to deconvolve the δ18O signal of the surface‐dwelling foraminiferal species Globigerinoides ruber (w) and calculate the freshwater runoff volume. Our calculated African monsoon runoff suggests large increases in freshwater discharge to the eastern Mediterranean (up to ~8.8 times the modern pre‐Aswan Nile discharge). Rapid onset of S5 deposition following the estimated increase in runoff strongly suggests a preconditioning of the eastern Mediterranean for sapropel deposition. Our study also provides insight into the stratification and warming of eastern Mediterranean surface waters during the S5 interval. Key Points: We present a quantitative time series estimate of North African monsoon intensification for the interval of sapropel S5 depositionSea level and sea surface temperature records used to deconvolve eastern Mediterranean planktic foraminiferal stable oxygen isotope signalPreconditioning of the eastern Mediterranean for sapropel deposition suggested by rapid onset of S5 following increase in African runoff [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using model results from the first phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) and four experiments with CAM4, the intensified African summer monsoon (ASM) in the mid-Piacenzian and corresponding mechanisms are analyzed. The results from PlioMIP show that the ASM intensified and summer precipitation increased in North Africa during the mid-Piacenzian, which can be explained by the increased net energy in the atmospheric column above North Africa. Further experiments with CAM4 indicated that the combined changes in the mid-Piacenzian of atmospheric CO concentration and SST, as well as the vegetation change, could have substantially increased the net energy in the atmospheric column over North Africa and further intensified the ASM. The experiments also demonstrated that topography change had a weak effect. Overall, the combined changes of atmospheric CO concentration and SST were the most important factor that brought about the intensified ASM in the mid-Piacenzian. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate, for the first time, the response of the North African summer monsoon to separate precession and obliquity forcings using a high-resolution state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model, EC-Earth. Our aim is to better understand the mechanisms underlying the astronomical forcing of this low-latitude climate system in detail. The North African monsoon is strengthened when northern hemisphere summer insolation is higher, as is the case in the minimum precession and maximum obliquity experiments. In these experiments, the low surface pressure areas over the Sahara are intensified and located farther north, and the meridional pressure gradient is further enhanced by a stronger South Atlantic high pressure area. As a result, the southwesterly monsoon winds are stronger and bring more moisture into the monsoon region from both the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. The monsoon winds, precipitation and convection also extend farther north into North Africa. The precession-induced changes are much larger than those induced by obliquity, but the latter are remarkable because obliquity-induced changes in summer insolation over the tropics are nearly zero. Our results provide a different explanation than previously proposed for mechanisms underlying the precession- and, especially, obliquity-related signals in paleoclimate proxy records of the North African monsoon. The EC-Earth experiments reveal that, instead of higher latitude mechanisms, increased moisture transport from both the northern and southern tropical Atlantic is responsible for the precession and obliquity signals in the North African monsoon. This increased moisture transport results from both increased insolation and an increased tropical insolation gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous modeling and paleoclimate studies have suggested that cooling originating from the extratropical North Atlantic can abruptly weaken the Eurasian and North African monsoons. The climatic signature includes a widespread cooling over the Eurasian and North African continents and an associated increase to surface pressure. It is explored whether such coordinated changes are similarly exhibited in the observed twentieth-century climate, in particular with the well-documented shift of Sahel rainfall during the 1960s. Surface temperature, sea level pressure, and precipitation changes are analyzed using combined principal component analysis (CPCA). The leading mode exhibits a monotonic shift in the 1960s, and the transition is associated with a relative cooling and pressure increase over the interior Eurasia and North Africa, and rainfall reduction over the Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia. The local circulation changes suggest that the rainfall shift results from the regional response of the summer monsoons to these continental-wide changes. A similar CPCA analysis of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced by twentieth-century-observed forcings shows similar results, suggesting that origins of the climate shift reside in the sea surface temperature changes, specifically over the extratropical North Atlantic. Finally, an AGCM forced with extratropical North Atlantic cooling appears to simulate these climate impacts, at least qualitatively. The result herein shows that the observed climate signature of the 1960s abrupt shift in Eurasian and North African climate is consistent with the influence of the abrupt high-latitude North Atlantic cooling that occurred in the late 1960s. A definitive causal relationship remains to be shown, and mechanisms elucidated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on some recent changes observed in the Tropics with special emphasis on the African monsoon region using high-resolution gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (period 1979-2002), outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and atmospheric reanalyses from the Climate Prediction Center (NCEP-DOE2, period 1979-2007). The results show a rainfall increase in North Africa since the mid-90s with significant northward migrations of rainfall amounts, i.e. + 1.5° for the 400 mm July to September isohyets, whereas deep convection has significantly increased and shifted northward. The subsidence branch of the northern meridional overturning has also been reinforced and shifted by 1° latitude northward in winter. At larger scale, an unambiguous reorganisation of the circulation with increasing subsidence in high troposphere over the Mediterranean and increasing ascendance in the African Intertropical Convergence Zone in northern summer has been noticed in the meridional cell overturning. After 1993-1994, the migration of the Saharan heat low towards northwest has been more marked (+1° to + 2° in latitude; − 1° to − 2° in longitude), whereas its centre intensified at the peak of the tropical rainy season (+10 gpm thickness in the 700-925 hPa layer). These changes are associated with significant reinforcements of the southwesterly low-level winds and Tropical Easterly jet and with a northward shift of the African Easterly jet. Analyses of Global Circulation Model outputs issued from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (A1B scenario and from forced experiments on the ARPEGE-climat (Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle) and Atmospheric Global Circulation Model show that at least part of these changes could be due to the recent warming observed in the Mediterranean/Saharan region. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]