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Much scientific discussion has focused on rising greenhouse gas emissions and changing rainfall patterns in an increasingly warmer world. In fact, preventing the worst impacts of climate change on future human well-being will mean dealing with heightened flood and drought risks. The authors explain why the complex science of the shifting rainfall patterns and intensities caused by global warming is made even more complex by increasingly extreme air pollution. The article describes how scientists now think that the so-called “atmospheric brown cloud” over India affects the summer monsoon more than global warming does. In India, agriculture, industrial productivity, and life in general depend on monsoonal downpours that bring huge amounts of water to the subcontinent, feeding rivers and aquifers and cooling the land between June and September. As bad as it sounds, the scenario in which air pollution plays a major role in climate is actually good news for developing nations such as India. Pollution control is a regional and local problem that developing nations need to address in any case because of the huge human health costs related to it. The authors also warn that once pollution is brought under control, the full extent of global warming caused by developed nations’ greenhouse gas emissions from decades ago will become more prevalent and its impacts on the Indian monsoon will be unmasked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A nine-member ensemble of simulations with a state-of-the-art atmospheric model forced only by the observed record of sea surface temperature (SST) over 1930–2000 is shown to capture the dominant patterns of variability of boreal summer African rainfall. One pattern represents variability along the Gulf of Guinea, between the equator and 10°N. It connects rainfall over Africa to the Atlantic marine Intertropical Convergence Zone, is controlled by local, i.e., eastern equatorial Atlantic, SSTs, and is interannual in time scale. The other represents variability in the semi-arid Sahel, between 10°N and 20°N. It is a continental pattern, capturing the essence of the African summer monsoon, while at the same time displaying high sensitivity to SSTs in the global tropics. A land–atmosphere feedback associated with this pattern translates precipitation anomalies into coherent surface temperature and evaporation anomalies, as highlighted by a simulation where soil moisture is held fixed to climatology. As a consequence of such feedback, it is shown that the recent positive trend in surface temperature is consistent with the ocean-forced negative trend in precipitation, without the need to invoke the direct effect of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. We advance plausible mechanisms by which the balance between land–ocean temperature contrast and moisture availability that defines the monsoon could have been altered in recent decades, resulting in persistent drought. This discussion also serves to illustrate ways in which the monsoon may be perturbed, or may already have been perturbed, by anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]