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Global warming will lead to earlier beginnings and prolongation of growing seasons in temperate regions and will have pronounced effects on phenology and life-history adaptation in many species. These changes were not easy to simulate for actual phenologies because of the rudimentary temporal (season) and spatial (regional) resolution of climate model projections. We investigate the effect of climate change on the regional incidence of a pest insect with nearly worldwide distribution and very high potential for adaptation to season length and temperature--the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella. Seasonal and regional climate change signals were downscaled to the hourly temporal scale of a pest phenology model and the spatial scale of pest habitats using a stochastic weather generator operating at daily scale in combination with a re-sampling approach for simulation of hourly weather data. Under future conditions of increased temperatures (2045-2074), the present risk of below 20% for a pronounced second generation (peak larval emergence) in Switzerland will increase to 70-100%. The risk of an additional third generation will increase from presently 0-2% to 100%. We identified a significant two-week shift to earlier dates in phenological stages, such as overwintering adult flight. The relative extent (magnitude) of first generation pupae and all later stages will significantly increase. The presence of first generation pupae and later stages will be prolonged. A significant decrease in the length of overlap of first and second generation larval emergence was identified. Such shifts in phenology may induce changes in life-history traits regulating the life cycle. An accordingly life-history adaptation in photoperiodic diapause induction to shorter day-length is expected and would thereby even more increase the risk of an additional generation. With respect to Codling Moth management, the shifts in phenology and voltinism projected here will require adaptations of plant protection strategies to maintain their sustainability.

Plant architecture of apple trees in commercial orchards was rapidly changed from traditional tall trees to dwarf trees to optimize yield and fruit quality. Additionally, hail nets are widely used to prevent yield loss by hail. These changes are expected to considerably influence the orchard microclimate and thus the developmental rates of pest insects in apple. However, these relationships have not yet been fully elucidated. The present study was conducted over the seasonal cycle to investigate the influence of plant architecture and hail nets on the habitat temperatures of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), in apple, Malus domestica Borkh. (Rosaceae). Within the canopies, leaf area index (LAI) and global site factor (GSF) were quantified using hemispherical photography. Temperature was analysed for the main habitats of the different codling moth stages, i.e., air within the canopy, bark of tree stems, and apple fruit. In dwarf trees, LAI was lower, leading to a higher GSF than in tall trees. Hail nets did not influence LAI and GSF. Results for dwarf trees compare as follows with those for tall trees: Average air temperatures within the canopy were 0.7 °C higher during daytime, whereas 0.4 °C lower at night. Mean surface temperatures of bark were 0.9 °C higher on sunny and 0.4 °C on overcast days. Mean surface temperatures of apple fruits were 1.8–2.7 °C higher on sunny days, but 0.6 °C cooler on overcast days. The effect of hail nets was confined to a reduction of the air temperature within the canopy by approximately 0.2–0.8 °C. Bark and apple surface temperatures were not significantly affected. Based on the temperature differences in the habitats considered, the calculated development of the codling moth in dwarf trees was on average 3 days faster than in tall trees. The calculations imply a negligible effect of hail nets on codling moth development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]