1. Predicting the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on Mycoplasma pneumoniae in the United States.
- Author
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Park SW, Noble B, Howerton E, Nielsen BF, Lentz S, Ambroggio L, Dominguez S, Messacar K, and Grenfell BT
- Subjects
- Humans, United States epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2 immunology, Disease Outbreaks prevention & control, Models, Theoretical, COVID-19 prevention & control, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 immunology, Pneumonia, Mycoplasma epidemiology, Pneumonia, Mycoplasma prevention & control, Mycoplasma pneumoniae
- Abstract
The introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 disrupted circulation of many respiratory pathogens and eventually caused large, delayed outbreaks, owing to the build up of the susceptible pool during the intervention period. In contrast to other common respiratory pathogens that re-emerged soon after the NPIs were lifted, longer delays (> 3 years) in the outbreaks of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp), a bacterium commonly responsible for respiratory infections and pneumonia, have been reported in Europe and Asia. As Mp cases are continuing to increase in the US, predicting the size of an imminent outbreak is timely for public health agencies and decision makers. Here, we use simple mathematical models to provide robust predictions about a large Mp outbreak ongoing in the US. Our model further illustrates that NPIs and waning immunity are important factors in driving long delays in epidemic resurgence., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Sang Woo Park reports financial support was provided by Life Sciences Research Foundation. Bjarke F Nielsen reports financial support was provided by Carlsberg Foundation. Kevin Messacar reports financial support was provided by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Vaccine Research Center. Brooklyn Noble reports a relationship with bioMérieux that includes: employment. Sarah Lentz reports a relationship with bioMérieux that includes: employment. Lilliam Ambroggio reports a relationship with Pfizer Inc. that includes: funding grants. Samuel Dominguez reports a relationship with BIOFIRE Diagnostics, DelveBio, and Karius that includes: consulting or advisory and funding grants. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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