Simsek B, Kostantinis S, Karacsonyi J, Alaswad K, Krestyaninov O, Khelimskii D, Davies R, Rier J, Goktekin O, Gorgulu S, ElGuindy A, Chandwaney RH, Patel M, Abi Rafeh N, Karmpaliotis D, Masoumi A, Khatri JJ, Jaffer FA, Doshi D, Poommipanit PB, Rangan BV, Sanvodal Y, Choi JW, Elbarouni B, Nicholson W, Jaber WA, Rinfret S, Koutouzis M, Tsiafoutis I, Yeh RW, Burke MN, Allana S, Mastrodemos OC, and Brilakis ES
Background: Chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is associated with increased risk of periprocedural complications. Estimating the risk of complications facilitates risk-benefit assessment and procedural planning., Objectives: This study sought to develop risk scores for in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), mortality, pericardiocentesis, and acute myocardial infarction (MI) in patients undergoing CTO PCI., Methods: The study analyzed the PROGRESS-CTO (Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention; NCT02061436) and created risk scores for MACE, mortality, pericardiocentesis, and acute MI. Logistic regression prediction modeling was used to identify independently associated variables, and models were internally validated with bootstrapping., Results: The incidence of periprocedural complications among 10,480 CTO PCIs was as follows: MACE 215 (2.05%), mortality 47 (0.45%), pericardiocentesis 83 (1.08%), and acute MI 66 (0.63%). The final model for MACE included ≥65 years of age (1 point), moderate-severe calcification (1 point), blunt stump (1 point), antegrade dissection and re-entry (ADR) (1 point), female (2 points), and retrograde (2 points); the final model for mortality included ≥65 years of age (1 point), left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45% (1 point), moderate-severe calcification (1 point), ADR (1 point), and retrograde (1 point); the final model for pericardiocentesis included ≥65 years of age (1 point), female (1 point), moderate-severe calcification (1 point), ADR (1 point), and retrograde (2 points); the final model for acute MI included prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery (1 point), atrial fibrillation (1 point), and blunt stump (1 point). The C-statistics of the models were 0.74, 0.80, 0.78, 0.72 for MACE, mortality, pericardiocentesis, and acute MI, respectively., Conclusions: The PROGRESS-CTO complication risk scores can facilitate estimation of the periprocedural complication risk in patients undergoing CTO PCI., Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures The authors are grateful for the philanthropic support of our generous anonymous donors, and the philanthropic support of Drs. Mary Ann and Donald A. Sens, Mrs. Diane and Dr Cline Hickok, Mrs. Wilma and Mr. Dale Johnson, Mrs. Charlotte and Mr. Jerry Golinvaux Family Fund, the Roehl Family Foundation, and the Joseph Durda Foundation. The generous gifts of these donors to the Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation's Science Center for Coronary Artery Disease helped support this research project. Dr Alaswad has served as a consultant and speaker for Boston Scientific, Abbott Cardiovascular, Teleflex, and CSI. Dr Davies has received honoraria from Boston Scientific, Medtronic, Siemens Healthineers, and Shockwave Medical. Dr ElGuindy has received consulting honoraria from Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Asahi Intecc, and Abbott; proctorship fees from Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Asahi Intecc, and Terumo; and educational grants from Medtronic. Dr Patel has received consulting honoraria from Abbott, Medtronic, Terumo, and Cardiovascular Systems. Dr Abi Rafeh has served as a CTO proctor and consultant for Boston Scientific and Abbott Vascular. Dr Karmpaliotis has received honoraria from Boston Scientific and Abbott Vascular; and owns equity in Saranas, Soundbite, and Traverse Vascular. Dr Khatri has received personal honoraria for proctoring and speaking from Abbott Vascular, Asahi Intecc, Terumo, and Boston Scientific. Dr Jaffer has performed sponsored research for Canon, Siemens, Shockwave, Teleflex, Mercator, and Boston Scientific; has served as a consultant for Boston Scientific, Siemens, Magenta Medical, IMDS, Asahi Intecc, Biotronik, Philips, and Intravascular Imaging; owns equity interest in Intravascular Imaging and DurVena; and his employer (Massachusetts General Hospital) has licensing arrangements with Terumo, Canon, and Spectrawave, for which Dr Jaffer has right to receive royalties. Dr Doshi has served on the Speakers Bureau for Abbott Vascular, Boston Scientific, and Medtronic; and received research support from Biotronik. Dr Jaber has served on the advisory board for Medtronic; and received proctoring fees from Abbott Vascular. Dr Yeh has received grant or contract support from Abiomed, AstraZeneca, BD Bard, Boston Scientific, Cook Medical, Medtronic, and Philips; and consulting fees from Abbott, Boston Scientific, Edwards Lifesciences, Medtronic, and Shockwave Medical outside the submitted work. Dr Burke is a stockholder of MHI Ventures and Egg Medical. Dr Brilakis has received consulting or speaker honoraria from Abbott Vascular, the American Heart Association (associate editor, Circulation), Amgen, Asahi Intecc, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, the Cardiovascular Innovations Foundation (Board of Directors), ControlRad, CSI, Elsevier, GE Healthcare, IMDS, InfraRedx, Medicure, Medtronic, Opsens, Siemens, and Teleflex; has received research support from Boston Scientific, and GE Healthcare; is the owner of Hippocrates LLC; and is a shareholder of MHI Ventures, Cleerly Health, and Stallion Medical. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose., (Copyright © 2022 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)