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Extreme weather events such as droughts are expected to increase in severity and frequency as the climate changes; it is imperative that land managers be able to monitor associated changes in vegetation health efficiently and across large scales in order to mitigate or prepare for these events. This need motivated deeper study of the die‐off of bishop pine (Pinus muricata) on California's Santa Cruz Island during the 2012–2016 drought. These pines play a keystone role within the island's ecosystem and have experienced two severe droughts and associated mass die‐offs in the past 40 years. In an effort to compare these events, we used meteorological data to track changes in drought severity from 1985 to 2018 coupled with novel methods for forest monitoring to reveal dynamics not detectable by shorter‐duration studies. Leveraging 34 years of 30 m resolution Landsat imagery, we compared vegetation mortality between the two most severe droughts of that time period: 1987–1991 and 2012–2016. We used the slope of decline in the annual median value of three different Vegetation Indices (VIs; NBR, NDMI and NDVI) to compare mortality between the two drought events and to reveal spatial patterns of mortality within the bishop pine forests. Our results indicated that the 2012–2016 drought was the island's harshest in over a century and that it resulted in greater and more widespread mortality of vegetation within bishop pine stands than the 1987–1991 drought. The average VI decline was significantly greater during the 2012–2016 drought than the 1987–1991 drought by a factor of 1.89, 2.09 and 1.84 for NBR, NDMI and NDVI, respectively. Our results aligned with projections of increasing drought severity and associated tree mortality across the region. The temporal monitoring methods developed here can be adapted to study similar landscape scale changes over multiple decades in other forest ecosystems facing similar threats.

Conservation of biologically diverse regions has thus far been accomplished largely through the establishment and maintenance of protected areas. Climate change is expected to shift climate space of many species outside existing reserve boundaries. We used climate-envelope models to examine shifts in climate space of 11 species that are representative of the Mount Hamilton Project area (MHPA) (California, U.S.A.), which includes areas within Alameda, Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and San Benito counties and is in the state's Central Coast ecoregion. We used Marxan site-selection software to determine the minimum area required as climate changes to achieve a baseline conservation goal equal to 80% of existing climate space for all species in the MHPA through 2050 and 2100. Additionally, we assessed the costs associated with use of existing conservation strategies (land acquisition and management actions such as species translocation, monitoring, and captive breeding) necessary to meet current species-conservation goals as climate changes. Meeting conservation goals as climate changes through 2050 required an additional 256,000 ha (332%) of protected area, primarily to the south and west of the MHPA. Through 2050 the total cost of land acquisition and management was estimated at US$1.67–1.79 billion, or 139–149% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. To maintain 80% of climate space through 2100 required nearly 380,000 additional hectares that would cost $2.46–2.62 billion, or 209–219% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. Furthermore, maintaining 80% of existing climate space within California for 27% of the focal species was not possible by 2100 because climate space for these species did not exist in the state. The high costs of conserving species as the climate changes—that we found in an assessment of one conservation project—highlights the need for tools that will aid in iterative goal setting given the uncertainty of the effects of climate change and adaptive management that includes new conservation strategies and consideration of the long-term economic costs of conservation.

Conservation of migratory shorebirds and waterfowl presents unique challenges due to extensive historic loss of wetland habitats, and current reliance on managed landscapes for wintering and migratory passage. We developed a spatially-explicit approach to estimate potential shorebird and waterfowl densities in California by integrating mapped habitat layers and statewide bird survey data with expert-based habitat rankings. Using these density estimates as inputs, we used the Marxan site-selection program to identify priority shorebird and waterfowl areas at the ecoregional level. We identified 3.7 million ha of habitat for shorebirds and waterfowl, of which 1.4 million ha would be required to conserve 50% of wintering populations. To achieve a conservation goal of 75%, more than twice as much habitat (3.1 million ha) would be necessary. Agricultural habitats comprised a substantial portion of priority areas, especially at the 75% level, suggesting that under current management conditions, large areas of agricultural land, much of it formerly wetland, are needed to provide the habitat availability and landscape connectivity required by shorebird and waterfowl populations. These habitats were found to be largely lacking recognized conservation status in California (96% un-conserved), with only slightly higher levels of conservation for priority shorebird and waterfowl areas. Freshwater habitats, including wetlands and ponds, were also found to have low levels of conservation (67% un-conserved), although priority shorebird and waterfowl areas had somewhat higher levels of conservation than the state as a whole. Conserving migratory waterfowl and shorebirds will require a diversity of conservation strategies executed at a variety of scales. Our modeled results are complementary with other approaches and can help prioritize areas for protection, restoration and other actions. Traditional habitat protection strategies such as conservation easements and fee acquisitions may be of limited utility for protecting and managing significant areas of agricultural lands. Instead, conservation strategies focused on incentive-based programs to support wildlife friendly management practices in agricultural settings may have greater utility and conservation effectiveness.

Conservation spending in California, USA exceeds conservation expenditures in many countries. To date, there has been no objective method to assess the efficiency of such spending for achieving species conservation outcomes. We conducted the first such retrospective analysis of conservation spending, examining the distribution of $ 2.8 billion spent on land protection by the state of California and partners from 1990 to 2006. Using a return on investment algorithm with species protection as the sole objective, we describe a "cost-efficient" funding scenario that would have protected four times more distinct species and three times more threatened and endangered species compared to the observed allocation. Differences between the species-diversity spending and the observed spending patterns reflect the myriad funding objectives, beyond protecting species, of the state. Identifying cost-effective conservation strategies are essential given the need to maintain species diversity in the face of global change.

Global goals established by the Convention on Biological Diversity stipulate that 10% of the world's ecological regions must be effectively conserved by 2010. To meet that goal for the mediterranean biome, at least 5% more land must be formally protected over the next few years. Although global assessments identify the mediterranean biome as a priority, without biologically meaningful analysis units, finer-resolution data, and corresponding prioritization analysis, future conservation investments could lead to more area being protected without increasing the representation of unique mediterranean ecosystems. We used standardized analysis units and six potential natural vegetation types stratified by 3 elevation zones in a global gap analysis that systematically explored conservation priorities across the mediterranean biome. The highest levels of protection were in Australia, South Africa, and California-Baja California (from 9–11%), and the lowest levels of protection were in Chile and the mediterranean Basin ( 30% conversion and suggest that these assemblages be elevated to high-priority status in future conservation efforts. Resumen: Las metas globales establecidas por la Convencion sobre Diversidad Biologica estipulan que 10% de las regiones ecologicas del mundo deberan estar conservadas efectivamente en 2010. Para alcanzar esa meta en el bioma mediterraneo, por lo menos 5% mas de superficie debe estar protegida formalmente en los proximos anos. Aunque las evaluaciones globales identifican al bioma mediterraneo como una prioridad, sin unidades de analisis biologicamente significativas, datos de resolucion mas fina y los correspondientes analisis de priorizacion, las inversiones futuras en conservacion pudieran conducir a la proteccion de mas superficie sin incrementar la representacion de los ecosistemas mediterraneos unicos. Utilizamos unidades de analisis estandarizadas y seis tipos potenciales de vegetacion natural estratificados en tres zonas de elevacion en un analisis global de disparidad que exploro sistematicamente las prioridades de conservacion en el bioma mediterraneo. Los niveles de proteccion mas altos se localizaron en Australia, Africa del Sur y California-Baja California (de 9–11%) y los niveles de proteccion mas bajos se localizaron en Chile y la Cuenca del mediterraneo ( 30% de conversion y sugerimos que estos ensambles sean elevados a un estatus de alta prioridad en esfuerzos de conservacion en el futuro.