1. When Words Sweat: Identifying Signals for Loan Default in the Text of Loan Applications
- Author
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Michal Herzenstein, Alain Lemaire, and Oded Netzer
- Subjects
Marketing ,Economics and Econometrics ,050208 finance ,Actuarial science ,business.industry ,Cross-collateralization ,05 social sciences ,Participation loan ,Consumer finance ,Forgivable loan ,Loan ,Bridge loan ,0502 economics and business ,050211 marketing ,Default ,Business ,Non-conforming loan ,Business and International Management ,Big Five personality traits ,Non-performing loan ,Empirical evidence ,Rule of 78s - Abstract
The authors present empirical evidence that borrowers, consciously or not, leave traces of their intentions, circumstances, and personality traits in the text they write when applying for a loan. This textual information has a substantial and significant ability to predict whether borrowers will pay back the loan above and beyond the financial and demographic variables commonly used in models predicting default. The authors use text-mining and machine learning tools to automatically process and analyze the raw text in over 120,000 loan requests from Prosper, an online crowdfunding platform. Including in the predictive model the textual information in the loan significantly helps predict loan default and can have substantial financial implications. The authors find that loan requests written by defaulting borrowers are more likely to include words related to their family, mentions of God, the borrower’s financial and general hardship, pleading lenders for help, and short-term-focused words. The authors further observe that defaulting loan requests are written in a manner consistent with the writing styles of extroverts and liars.
- Published
- 2019
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