Search

The impact of global warming on lightning flash rates remains relatively unknown. In this study, the South China Sea (SCS) and the surrounding areas within Southeast Asia were selected to examine the long‐term trend and future projection of lightning activity based on the currently longest satellite‐based lightning data set available and climate models. Our study revealed a reduction in the observed lightning flash rates around the SCS, with a linear trend of −0.11 fl km−2 yr−2 during 1996–2013. In contrast, the precipitation around the SCS exhibited an increasing trend and was negatively correlated with the local lightning flash rate. The sea surface temperature gradient over equatorial Pacific Ocean, latent heat flux over the equatorial Indian Ocean, local convective available potential energy, precipitation and aerosol changes collectively accounted for 82% of the variance in the lightning fluctuations over the SCS and Southeast Asia. Multiple linear regression proxies of lightning flash rates were constructed and applied to the climate models. The models indicated that lightning activity around the SCS is projected to intensify by 10% and 12% by the end of the 21st century under SSP245 and SSP370, respectively. Plain Language Summary: The projection of future changes in lightning activity is uncertain owing to various factors, and different regions exhibit distinct trajectories. In this study, the focus was on the South China Sea (SCS) and Southeast Asia, and past variations in lightning activity was examined and used to predict future variations in lightning activity. Employing a multiple linear regression approach, we identified the large‐scale thermodynamic drivers and local environmental factors that influence lightning activity around the SCS. The research findings indicated a reduction in lightning activity over the past few decades over the SCS and Southeast Asia region. The simulation results indicate that in the future under ongoing global warming, regional lightning activity will intensify. Key Points: Lightning activity and precipitation show opposing regional trends around the South China Sea (SCS)Remote thermodynamic and local environmental factors both contribute to the variability in lightning around the SCSUnder future climate change scenarios, lightning activity around the SCS is projected to gradually increase [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and South China Sea (SCS) during the post‐monsoon season is explored during 1979–2020. A zonal see‐saw variation of TC genesis is detected between the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB) –SCS (BOBSCS for brevity). More (less) TCs over the AS tend to concur with fewer (more) TCs over the BOBSCS. Analyses of both the observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 outputs show that tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans play a crucial role in the zonal see‐saw variation of TC genesis. Positive western Indian (WI) Ocean and tropical central and eastern Pacific (CEP) Ocean SST anomalies and negative western Pacific (WP) SST anomalies induce anomalous ascending and descending motions and high and low humidity transportation to the middle troposphere over the AS and BOBSCS, respectively. Meantime, anticyclonic vorticity anomalies appear in the BOBSCS region and negative anomalies of vertical wind shear are induced over the NIO and SCS. The combined positive contributions of upward motion, mid‐level humidity increase, and low vertical wind shear favor higher TC genesis over the AS, whereas the joint negative effects of downward motion, mid‐level water vapor decrease, and lower‐level anticyclonic vorticity anomalies result in less TC genesis over the BOBSCS. Numerical experiments show a critical role of the WI SST anomalies in the dipole pattern of vertical motion, which is crucial for the zonal dipole variation of TC genesis. Plain Language Summary: Although the tropical cyclones (TCs) frequency number that form over the South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (AS) are relatively small, these regions are densely populated, which means that the impacts of TCs can be significant and widespread. The study presents observational and modeling evidence for a see‐saw variation of tropical cyclogenesis between the AS and BOB‐SCS during the post‐monsoon season (September–December). Composite analyses display that the zonal see‐saw connection of tropical cyclogenesis frequency over the AS and BOB‐SCS is closely linked to the zonal tripole distribution of the sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropics of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, which exert a significant influence on the vertical–zonal overturning circulation and the environmental parameters for TC formation over the AS and BOB‐SCS. We conduct an evaluation of 19 CMIP6/AMIP (CMIP6/CMIP) simulations and reveal that 53% (26%) models are able to successfully simulate the zonal dipole pattern of TC‐related variables between AS and BOB‐SCS regions. The present findings may have the potential to enhance the seasonal prediction for tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS, AS and BOB regions. Key Points: A zonal see‐saw variation of TC genesis is detected between the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal‐South China Sea (BOBSCS)The tripole SST anomalies over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans play a crucial role in the zonal see‐saw variation of TC genesisNumerical experiments show a critical role of SST anomalies in the western Indian Ocean in the dipole pattern of vertical motion [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical western North Pacific displays prominent synoptic-scale disturbances (SSDs) during boreal summer. The present study investigates interannual variations of boreal summer SSD intensity (measured using the kinetic energy of 3–9-day filtered 850 hPa winds) over the tropical western North Pacific and the associated factors. The first EOF mode of the SSD intensity variation displays a southeast–northwest tilted structure and the second EOF mode features a west–east contrasting pattern. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the intensity of the SSDs over the tropical western North Pacific in three ways. The first way is a Rossby wave response to the equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which modulates the seasonal mean background fields over the source region and along the propagation path of the SSDs. The second way is an anomalous Walker circulation response that modulates the seasonal mean background fields over the far western equatorial Pacific that is a source region of northward propagating SSDs. The third way is an anomalous Walker circulation response that modulates the seasonal mean background fields over the Philippine Sea. The first and third ways operate for the first mode and the first and second ways work for the second mode. The third mode has a large loading over the subtropical western North Pacific and is related to the internal atmospheric process. The relative contributions of different terms of the barotropic energy conversion associated with the seasonal mean background fields vary with the region and differ among the three modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the relationship of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis between the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) from 1979 to 2020. A significantly out-of-phase variation is found between spring [March–May (MAM)] TC genesis over the WNP and the following summer–fall [June–November (JJASON)] TC genesis over the SCS. More TCs over the WNP in MAM are followed by fewer TCs over the SCS in the succeeding JJASON. Composite analysis and numerical model experiments show that negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during MAM in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (CEP) and southeastern Indian Ocean work together to induce a lower-level cyclonic circulation over the WNP, with the latter more important. The positive specific humidity and ascending motion favor the TC genesis over the WNP in MAM. In the following JJASON, the SST anomalies are reversed in the tropical CEP. The positive precipitation anomalies over the western-central Pacific induced by positive SST anomalies further stimulate an anomalous zonal overturning circulation with anomalous descending motion and boundary layer divergence over the SCS. In addition, the persistent negative SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent (MC) induce an anomalous anticyclone to the west. Both processes lead to negative genesis potential index (GPI) anomalies and thus inhibit the TC genesis over the SCS. This out-of-phase relationship of TC genesis between the WNP and SCS also exists when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition years are removed. This finding may be helpful to improve the seasonal prediction of the SCS TC activity over the peak TC season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the relationship of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis among the western North Pacific (WNP), eastern North Pacific (ENP), and tropical North Atlantic Ocean (TNA) during July–October (JASO) from 1979 to 2019. A coherent interannual variation is found for TC genesis among the southeastern part of the WNP (SEW for brevity), ENP and TNA. When there are more TCs generated over the SEW, TC geneses are more than normal over the ENP, but less than normal over the TNA. Correlation analysis shows there is a significant positive (negative) relationship between the SEW/ENP (TNA) TC genesis and a tripole zonal sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly distribution among the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, western Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The zonal tripole SST anomalies provide favorable genesis potential index (GPI) anomalies for TC genesis over the SEW and ENP, but unfavorable GPI anomalies over the TNA. The diagnoses display that the absolute vorticity has the greatest contribution and the contributions of the relative humidity and vertical wind shear terms are secondary to GPI anomalies over the SEW. The positive GPI anomalies are mainly due to a positive contribution of the vertical wind shear and potential intensity over the ENP. The major term contributing to the negative GPI anomalies is the vertical wind shear over the TNA. This study may help to improve seasonal prediction of the TC genesis over the WNP, ENP and TNA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work compares the contributions of synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual components of large-scale parameters to tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) from April to December from 1979 to 2020. A composite analysis is employed with respect to TC genesis time and location. It is shown that most TCs occur when the total sea surface temperature (SST) is between 28 and 30 °C and SST anomalies in three time ranges are small (with the magnitude less than 0.2 °C). The TCs form mostly when the anomalies of vertical zonal wind shear are between −6 and 6 m s−1 and total vertical zonal wind shear falls within −12 and −3 m s−1, with the synoptic component being a positive contributor. The intraseasonal component of vorticity and convergence in the low level, vertical motion and specific humidity in the middle level, and convection contributes dominantly to the TC genesis. Synoptic-scale tropical disturbances obtain barotropic kinetic energy from the climatological mean and intraseasonal flows, with the former dominant in the southeastern sector, and the latter dominant in the northwestern sector. The contributions of the three temporal components of environmental factors are compared for TC genesis between the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB) and between the early season (April through June) and late season (September through December). The relative contributions of the three temporal components of factors are also compared for the TC formation among the NIO, northern tropical Atlantic Ocean (NTA), Northwestern Pacific (WNP), and Northeastern Pacific (ENP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study identifies a significant negative correlation of the South China Sea (SCS) summer–fall (JJASON) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis with the previous boreal spring (MAM) total lightning flash rate east of the Philippines during 1996–2013. The increased lightning flash rate east of the Philippines signifies an enhancement in deep convection, which induces cyclonic wind anomalies to the west via a Gill‐type atmospheric response and results in an increase in convection and cloud cover over the SCS during spring. The atmospheric changes lead to a decrease in sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC) in the SCS by reducing downward short‐wave radiation and enhancing oceanic upwelling. The negative SST and OHC anomalies persist from spring to summer–fall and induce unfavourable thermodynamic anomalies, suppressing the SCS TC genesis during JJASON. Thus, the spring total lightning flash rate east of the Philippines, as an indicator of deep convection, may serve as a precursor of the SCS TC genesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study focuses on changes in synoptic-scale waves (SSWs) over the northwest Pacific (NWP) during boreal summer and compares them with intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). The results show that the intensity of eddy kinetic energy (EKE)-based SSWs (2–10-day period) has greater climatological means and interannual variations than the 10–20-day and 30–60-day ISOs. Additionally, the distribution of the SSWs is similar to that of the 10–20-day ISO, which shows a greater amplitude in the monsoon trough region. Further investigation reveals that the EKE-based SSW intensity over the South China Sea-tropical NWP region, where the greatest SSW activity occurs, is positively correlated with central Pacific (CP) warming. The EKE-based SSW intensity tends to be higher in years of developing CP warming. The influences of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) are limited and show a weak correlation with the EKE-based SSW intensity over the key region (5° N–20° N, 115° E–155° E). In turn, the SSWs have impacts on local SST anomalies, with active SSWs leading to SST cooling. CP warming induces a favorable environment for SSW origination over CP and SSW development in the monsoon trough region. Concurrent with the CP warming-associated easterly vertical wind shear, upward vertical motion and abundant moisture supply, significant synoptic-scale EKE conversion occurs over the key region, which indicates its dominant role in influencing the SSW intensity. The influences of CP warming on SSW intensity over the NWP demonstrate the potential of the El Niño Modoki index for predicting interannual variations in SSW intensity. Moreover, considering that influences related to SSWs bear a resemblance to the 10–20-day ISOs, future research should take into account the contributions of SSWs to avoid overestimating the impact from ISOs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates relative contributions of large‐scale environmental factors on interannual, intraseasonal, and synoptic time scales to tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the eastern North Pacific (ENP) during TC seasons of 1979–2013 from the perspective of TC genesis time and position. Conditional sorting displays that the synoptic component is more important in the contribution of lower‐level vorticity and mid‐level specific humidity to TC genesis compared to interannual and intraseasonal components. The convection contributes to TC genesis mainly through synoptic and intraseasonal components. Synoptic‐scale tropical disturbances mainly obtain barotropic eddy energy from climatological mean flows. TCs appear most frequently when vertical wind shear anomalies are between 0 and 3 m s−1, in which interannual and intraseasonal westerly wind anomalies make a positive contribution due to climatological easterly wind shear. When total SST exceeds 28°C, the interannual component of sea surface temperature (SST) is positive, and then it has a positive contribution to TC genesis. In addition, there are notable differences of relative contributions of different time scale components of large‐scale factors among the ENP, northern Atlantic Ocean, and western North Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the factors that affect the year-to-year change in the intensity of synoptic-scale variability (SSV) over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) during boreal summer and fall. It is found that the intensity of the TWNP SSV in summer is associated with the equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that modulate the background fields through a Rossby wave response both in the source region and along the propagation path of the synoptic-scale disturbances. In fall, the intensity of the TWNP SSV is related to an SST anomaly pattern with opposite anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific and TWNP that modulates the background fields from the equatorial central Pacific to TWNP. However, the equatorial central Pacific SST anomalies alone fail to change the intensity of the TWNP SSV as the induced background field changes are limited to the equatorial central Pacific. It is shown that tropical western Pacific SST anomalies may induce notable changes in the intensity of the TWNP SSV. The relation of the TWNP SSV to the equatorial eastern Pacific SST is weak due to opposite SST anomalies in different types of years. Both seasonal mean and intraseasonal flows provide sources of barotropic energy for the change in the intensity of the TWNP synoptic-scale disturbances in summer. Seasonal mean flow has a main contribution to the barotropic energy conversion for the change in the intensity of the TWNP synoptic-scale disturbances in fall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous study has suggested a northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. This study replenishes two mechanisms to explain this inter‐decadal change in the WNP TC genesis position. The first mechanism is related to the mean state change. According to observational analysis and numerical simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric general circulation model, a La Niña‐type Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change and the northern Atlantic Ocean warming in the late 1990s cause a dipole pattern of lower‐level circulation change, with cyclone over the northwestern WNP and anticyclone over the southeastern WNP. This pattern is favourable for more TC genesis in the northwestern WNP. The sensitivity experiments show that the contribution from the Pacific Ocean is larger than that from the northern Atlantic Ocean. The second mechanism is related to the change in the intra‐seasonal oscillation intensity, particularly the quasi‐biweekly variation. The activity of intra‐seasonal oscillations over the southeastern WNP shows a decadal decrease around the late 1990s. Meantime, when the intra‐seasonal oscillations with tilted structure move northwestwards, they provide a favourable condition for TC genesis to be located more northwestwards after the late 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates relative contributions of interannual, intraseasonal, and synoptic variations of environmental factors to tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) during July–October. Analysis shows that convection, lower-level vorticity, and midlevel specific humidity contribute to TC genesis through intraseasonal and synoptic variations with a larger contribution of the latter. The relative contribution of three components of vertical wind shear depends largely on its magnitude. The contribution of sea surface temperature (SST) to TC genesis is mainly due to the interannual component when total SST is above 27.5°C. The barotropic energy for the development of synoptic-scale disturbances comes mainly from climatological mean flows and intraseasonal wind variations. The proportion of contribution between synoptic and intraseasonal variations of convection, relative vorticity, and specific humidity is larger over the eastern NTA than over the western NTA. The barotropic energy conversion has a larger part related to climatological mean flows and intraseasonal wind variations over the eastern and western NTA, respectively. There are notable differences between the NTA and the western North Pacific (WNP). One is that the relative contribution of synoptic variations of convection, relative vorticity, and specific humidity is larger over the NTA, whereas that of intraseasonal variations is larger over the WNP. The other is that the barotropic energy conversion related to climatological mean flows and intraseasonal wind variations is comparable over the NTA, whereas that related to climatological mean flows is larger over the WNP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A distinct inter‐decadal increase of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency occurred over the South China Sea (SCS) around the mid‐1990s. Previous studies linked this TC frequency increase to changes in seasonal mean background fields and in the intensity of intra‐seasonal oscillations according to regional and seasonal mean fields. The present study compares the contributions of environmental factors on different timescales to inter‐decadal change of the SCS TC frequency from a local and instantaneous perspective. It is shown that the intra‐seasonal variations of lower‐level vorticity, mid‐level specific humidity, and vertical motion have a dominant contribution to the SCS TC genesis during both 1979–1993 and 1994–2002. The inter‐annual anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and vertical motion display an increase of favourable state near TC genesis regions at the mid‐1990s. The intra‐seasonal components of favourable OLR and vertical motion anomalies are larger in the latter period than in the former period. The synoptic components of favourable lower‐level vorticity, vertical wind shear, and mid‐level specific humidity anomalies increase from the former period to the latter period. The present study shows that the contributions of environmental factors to the SCS TC frequency have increased on different timescales around the mid‐1990s. The results suggest that this inter‐decadal increase of TC frequency may include both effects of dynamical‐driven changes and stochastic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous study detected an intensified impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) after the early 1990s and attributed it to an expansion in areal coverage of the equatorial central Pacific (ECP) SST anomalies. This study identifies the contribution of SST anomalies in several other regions to this inter‐decadal change in the relationship between ENSO Modoki SST and the WNP TC genesis. Before the early 1990s, the positive ECP SST anomalies induce an anomalous lower‐level cyclone and consequently an increase in the TC genesis frequency over the southern part of the WNP, and the positive ECP and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies together induce an anomalous lower‐level anticyclone and accordingly a decrease in the TC genesis frequency over the northern part of the WNP. As such, the relationship between the ECP SST and the WNP TC genesis frequency is weak. After the early 1990s, the positive ECP SST anomalies with a large areal coverage induce a large anomalous lower‐level cyclone covering most of the WNP and thus an increase in the TC genesis frequency over the WNP. Meantime, the tropical northern Atlantic and western South Pacific SST anomalies during spring enhance the succeeding summer–autumn WNP atmospheric circulation response to the ECP SST anomalies through an Atlantic–Pacific teleconnection and a wind‐evaporation positive feedback, respectively. This strengthens the relationship between the ECP SST and the WNP TC genesis frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study documents the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variations and relative contribution of surface latent heat flux and shortwave radiation to the SST propagation in the South China Sea (SCS) and western North Pacific (WNP) regions. The emphasis is on the contrast of intraseasonal SST propagation between summer and winter and between 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales. The dominant SST pattern during summer displays a tilted southwest-northeast band from the SCS to the subtropical WNP on both time scales, but with a larger value in the subtropical WNP on the 10-20-day time scale and in the SCS on the 30-60-day time scale. The dominant SST pattern during winter resembles that during summer, but with a larger value in the SCS. In summer, the SST anomalies show obvious northwestward and northward propagations in the SCS-WNP region on the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales, respectively. The cloud-radiation effect is a dominant factor for the SST propagation on both time scales in the SCS-WNP region, with a supplementary effect from the wind-evaporation effect on the 10-20-day time scale. In winter, the SST anomalies show southward propagation on both time scales in the SCS, while the southward propagation in the WNP is weak and confined to the subtropics on the 10-20-day time scale. The wind-evaporation effect makes a larger contribution to the SST propagation than the cloud-radiation effect on both time scales in the SCS-WNP region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies suggest that spring SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) affect the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) in the following summer and fall. The present study reveals that the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer-fall WNP TC genesis frequency is not stationary. The influence of spring NTA SST on following summer-fall WNP TC genesis frequency is weak and insignificant before, but strong and significant after, the late 1980s. Before the late 1980s, the NTA SST anomaly-induced SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific are weak, and the response of atmospheric circulation over the WNP is not strong. As a result, the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer-fall WNP TC genesis frequency is insignificant in the former period. In contrast, after the late 1980s, NTA SST anomalies induce pronounced tropical central Pacific SST anomalies through an Atlantic-Pacific teleconnection. Tropical central Pacific SST anomalies further induce favorable conditions for WNP TC genesis, including vertical motion, mid-level relative humidity, and vertical zonal wind shear. Hence, the connection between NTA SST and WNP TC genesis frequency is significant in the recent period. Further analysis shows that the interdecadal change in the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer-fall WNP TC genesis frequency may be related to the climatological SST change over the NTA region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the relationship of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind speed changes in the South China Sea (SCS) region during the passage of typhoons for May–October of 2000–2010. Analysis shows that the SST drop in a 2^\circ \times 2^\circ box during the passage of typhoons is about 1–3 ^\circ\C in two days around the time of maximum surface wind speed for most of the SCS typhoon cases. The typhoon-induced SST cooling displays a tendency of increase with surface wind speed. There is no clear statistical relationship between the SST cooling and the surface wind weakening during the analysis period. The relative location of the cold SST patch and the low surface wind region varies from case to case and from time to time. The present result does not support the previously proposed SST cooling impact on the surface wind speed based on case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The present study investigates reasons of interdecadal changes in the relationship between the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and tropical North Atlantic Ocean (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) in early‐1990s. It is found that the above interdecadal changes are related to changes in the coherence of TIO and TNA SST variations with equatorial central‐eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) SST variations. During 1970s through mid‐1980s, TIO and TNA SSTs tend to vary in phase with EPO SST on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. The combined effects of TIO and EPO SST anomalies induce opposite environment and TC changes in southeastern and northwestern WNP, leading to a weak correlation of basin‐wide WNP TC and TIO SST. Similarly, TNA and EPO SST anomalies induce opposite environment and TC changes in northeastern and southeastern WNP and thus basin‐wide WNP TC‐TNA SST correlation is weak. During late 1990s through early 2000s, TIO and EPO SST variations have a weak coherence due to their opposite relations on interannual and interdecadal time scales. TIO SST anomalies alone induce anomalous circulation over most WNP so that basin‐wide WNP TC‐TIO SST relationship is strong. The interannual and interdecadal SST variations remain coherent in TNA and EPO but with a switch of sign in their relationship in early 1990s. TNA and EPO SST anomalies induce same environment and TC changes in northeastern and southeastern WNP, and thus, basin‐wide WNP TC‐TNA SST relationship is strong. Numerical model experiments validate the importance of coherent regional SST anomalies. Key Points: Relation of western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis to regional SST displays interdecadal changes in early 1990sThe interdecadal changes are due to changes in the coherence and effect of SST anomalies in different regionsCoherence of SST anomalies is determined by relations on both interannual and interdecadal time scales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]