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Coupling a three-dimensional ocean circulation model to an atmospheric model can significantly improve forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs). This is particularly true of forecasts for TC intensity (maximum sustained surface wind and minimum central pressure), but also for structure (e.g., surface wind-field sizes). This study seeks to explore the physical mechanisms by which a dynamic ocean influences TC evolution, using an operational TC model. The authors evaluated impacts of ocean-coupling on TC intensity and structure forecasts from NOAA's Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System v1.0 B (HFSB), which became operational at the NOAA National Weather Service in 2023. The study compared existing HFSB coupled simulations with simulations using an identical model configuration in which the dynamic ocean coupling was replaced by a simple diurnally varying sea surface temperature model. The authors analyzed TCs of interest from the 2020-2022 Atlantic hurricane seasons, selecting forecast cycles with small coupled track-forecast errors for detailed analysis. The results show the link between the dynamic, coupled ocean response to TCs and coincident TC structural changes directly related to changing intensity and surface wind-field size. These results show the importance of coupling in forecasting slower-moving TCs and those with larger surface wind fields. However, there are unexpected instances where coupling impacts the nearTC atmospheric environment (e.g., mid-level moisture intrusion), ultimately affecting intensity forecasts. These results suggest that, even for more rapidly moving and smaller TCs, the influence of the ocean response to the wind field in the near-TC atmospheric environment is important for TC forecasting. The authors also examined cases where coupling degrades forecast performance. Statistical comparisons of coupled versus uncoupled HFSB further show an interesting tendency: high biases in peak surface winds for the uncoupled forecasts contrast with corresponding low biases, contrary to expectations, in coupled forecasts; the coupled forecasts also show a significant negative bias in the radii of 34 kt winds relative to National Hurricane Center best track estimates. By contrast, coupled forecasts show very small bias in minimum central pressure compared with a strong negative bias in uncoupled. Possible explanations for these discrepancies are discussed. The ultimate goal of this work will be to enable better evaluation and forecast improvement of TC models in future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer Asian westerly jet (AWJ)'s shifting in latitudes is one important characteristic of its variability and has great impact on the East Asian summer climate. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets from the Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55), and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5), this study investigates the relationship between the spring tripole North Atlantic SST (TNAT) anomalies and the summer meridional shift of the AWJ (MSJ) for the period of 1958–2020. Through the method of correlation analysis and regression analysis, we show that the '+ - +' TNAT anomalies in spring could induce a northward shift of the AWJ in the following summer. However, such a climatic effect of the spring TNAT anomalies on the MSJ is unstable, exhibiting an evident interdecadal strengthening since the early 1990s. Further analysis reveals that this is related to a strengthened intensity of the spring TNAT anomalies in the most recent three decades. Compared to the early epoch (1958–1993), the stronger spring TNAT anomalies in the post epoch (1994–2020) could cause a stronger pan-tropical climate response until the following summer through a series of ocean–atmosphere interactions. Through Gill responses, the resultant more prominent cooling in the central Pacific in response to the '+ - +' TNAT anomalies induces a pan-tropical cooling in the upper troposphere, which weakens the poleward gradient of the tropospheric temperature over subtropical Asia. As a result, the AWJ shifts northward via a thermal wind effect. By contrast, in the early epoch, the spring TNAT anomalies are relatively weaker, inducing weaker pan-tropical ocean–atmosphere interactions and thus less change in the meridional shit of the summer AWJ. Our results highlight a strengthened lagged effect of the spring TNAT anomalies on the following summer MSJ and have important implications for the seasonal climate predictability over Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The abundant precipitation over Southern China during the pre–flood season (PFS) [i.e., April–June (AMJ)] has important socioeconomic impacts on this densely populated region. Using observational and reanalyzed datasets, this study explores how El Niño affected the subsequent PFS precipitation over Southern China during 1961–2020. The results show that the El Niño–related anomalies in sea surface temperature forced a northwestern Pacific anomalous anticyclone (NPAAC) in the decaying AMJ. This NPAAC featured southwesterly wind anomalies in its northwestern flank, which could transport moisture from the South China Sea, and accompanying the NPAAC there was abnormal descending motion over the tropical western Pacific, resulting in weakened regional Hadley circulation with abnormal ascending motion over subtropical East Asia. Before the 1990s, this abnormal ascending motion was located mainly to the east of Southern China with insignificant impacts on the PFS precipitation there. In contrast, after the early 1990s, El Niño–related warm sea surface temperature anomalies were stronger and longer-lasting with westward extension. This enhanced the NPAAC with a decadal westward extension, and consequently, the anomalous regional Hadley circulation was more evident over Southern China after the early 1990s during the El Niño decaying AMJ, causing strong abnormal upward motion and excessive precipitation there. The present results emphasize an enhancing influence of El Niño on the subsequent PFS precipitation over Southern China since the early 1990s, offering better understanding of the interannual precipitation variability over Southern China and with important implications for regional seasonal climate prediction. Significance Statement: The precipitation over Southern China during the pre–flood season (PFS) contributes between 40% and 50% of the local annual precipitation, with severe floods occurring frequently and tremendous socioeconomic impacts on the region, including on its agriculture, water resources, food security, ecosystems, disaster mitigation, infrastructure construction, and human health. This study reveals a decadal enhancement in the effect of El Niño on the subsequent PFS precipitation over Southern China since the early 1990s. This is ascribed to a decadal enhancement of El Niño–related warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific, as a result of El Niño warming occurring more frequently over the central Pacific against the backdrop of global warming. To the extent that the central Pacific El Niño events would occur even more frequently for the projected future warming scenarios, a stronger effect of El Niño on the PFS precipitation over Southern China would be expected, implying potentially enhanced seasonal predictability of the regional climate in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño is an important external factor to trigger a positive Indian Ocean (IO) dipole (pIOD) mode with anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) cooling (warming) over the tropical southeastern (western) IO on the interannual timescale. Based on the observational and reanalyzed datasets during 1948–2020, this study shows a multi-decadal enhancement of the interannual pIOD mode since the early 1990s. Moreover, only the pIOD events concurring with El Niño show such a multi-decadal enhancement, while the independent pIOD events change little, implying a strengthening influence of El Niño on the pIOD mode. The analyses suggest that such a strengthening response of the pIOD mode to El Niño is ascribed to the enhancement of the El Niño-related central Pacific SST warming around the early 1990s. A stronger El Niño-related central Pacific SST warming tends to induce a stronger anomalous Walker circulation adjustment over the tropical Pacific and IO, particularly the low-level anomalous easterlies along the equatorial IO. The stronger anomalous equatorial easterlies could enhance the Bjerknes positive feedback over the tropical IO, resulting in a stronger pIOD mode. In addition, we also find that the strengthening influence of El Niño on the pIOD mode causes a longer duration of the pIOD mode: while the pIOD events concurring with El Niño mature in boreal autumns and tend to sharply terminate in the following early winter before the early 1990s, those tend to persist longer until the early winter (December and January). Our results highlight a multi-decadal enhancement in the effect of El Niño on the pIOD mode since the early 1990s, with implications for the future regional climate prediction under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China is closely linked to the East Asian monsoon circulation, which is largely affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, results show that spring soil moisture (SM) over the Indo-China peninsula (ICP) could be a reliable seasonal predictor for eastern China summer precipitation under non-ENSO conditions. When springtime SM anomalies are present over the ICP, they trigger a structured response in summertime precipitation over most of eastern China. The resultant south-to-north, tri-polar configuration of precipitation anomalies has a tendency to yield increased (decreased) precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and decreased (increased) in South and North China with a drier (wetter) spring soil condition in the ICP. The analyses show that ENSO exerts a powerful control on the East Asian circulation system in the ENSO-decaying summer. In the case of ENSO forcing, the seasonal predictability of the ICP spring SM for eastern China summer precipitation is suppressed. However, in the absence of the influence of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies from the preceding winter, the SM anomalies over the ICP induce abnormal local heating and a consequent geopotential height response owing to its sustained control on local temperature, which could, in turn, lead to abnormal eastern China summer precipitation by affecting the East Asian summer monsoon circulation. The present findings provide a better understanding of the complexity of summer climate predictability over eastern China, which is of potential significance for improving the livelihood of the people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation over the Maritime Continent (MC) is crucial for the local people's livelihood and its associated convective activity also plays an important role in the remote East Asian climate. Using the observed and reanalysis datasets, this study investigates the effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in decaying summers on the MC precipitation. The results show that the relationship between the MC summer precipitation and the preceding winter ENSO index is not statistically significant during 1958–2020. This is mainly due to the asymmetric effect of ENSO on the MC precipitation in decaying summers: for both the El Niño and La Niña cases, precipitation generally increases over the central and western MC. In El Niño decaying summers, warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific rapidly decline, and instead anomalously warmer Indian Ocean and colder Northwest Pacific (NWP) sustain a low-level NWP anomalous anticyclone (NWPAAC). This NWPAAC could transport excessive atmospheric moisture to the MC, in favor of the local summer precipitation. In La Niña cases, however, cold SST anomalies over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific persist until decaying summers, inducing enhanced atmospheric ascending motion and precipitation over the MC region via the Walker circulation adjustment. This asymmetric lagged effect of ENSO on the summer MC precipitation has a great implication for the regional seasonal climate prediction, with benefits for a better understanding of the East Asian summer climate in ENSO decaying years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

July is the rainy peak month of central China, with a large interannual variation of local precipitation often causing serious droughts and floods. The seasonal prediction of the central China July precipitation (CCJP) is an important but still challenging task. Here, we suggest several robust seasonal predictors for the CCJP, including the preceding winter intensity of El Niño‐South Oscillation (ENSO), the winter‐to‐spring decaying rate of ENSO signals in the central Pacific, as well as the spring tropical and subpolar North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. A physics‐based empirical model is then developed to predict the CCJP by using the principal component regression of the aforementioned seasonal predictors. In our statistical model, the seasonal prediction skill of the CCJP is high, with the cross‐validated reforecast skill at 0.81 during 1993–2021. This suggests a skillful seasonal prediction of the CCJP, with potentially enormous benefits for the local society and economy. Plain Language Summary: July contributes about 20% of annual precipitation for the densely populated central China, which could exert tremendous socio‐economic impacts over the region, including agriculture, water resources, food security, ecosystems, disaster mitigation, infrastructure construction, human health, and so on. Thus, how to skillfully predict the interannual variation of the central China July precipitation (CCJP) is a widespread scientific and socio‐economic concern. This work establishes a statistical model for the seasonal prediction of the CCJP by combining the physical precursor factors that drive the interannual variation of the CCJP. Our physics‐based empirical model can well predict the CCJP at one‐season lead, with the cross‐validated reforecast skill at 0.81 during 1993–2021. This provides a substantial skill of the seasonal prediction of the CCJP and is of potentially great importance to the regional agrarian‐based livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. Key Points: The Pacific and North Atlantic sea surface temperature precursors are suggested as robust seasonal predictors of the central China July precipitation (CCJP)A physics‐based empirical prediction model of the CCJP is developed based on the principal component regression of the seasonal predictorsThe prediction skill of the CCJP in our statistical model is high, with a cross‐validated reforecast skill at 0.81 during 1993–2021 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sahel summer rainfall is of great significance to the local social, economic, and cultural environment. In the context of a long Sahel megadrought in the last thirty years of the twentieth century, the future change of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming has aroused wide attention. Based on the historical simulations and high emission scenario experiments from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) models and 22 CMIP6 models, this study investigates the future projections of Sahel summer rainfall under global warming. The results show that the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean projects a slight increase (1–2%/℃) of summer rainfall over the Sahel in the future which seems to be due to the thermodynamic changes and opposed by the dynamic changes, but that the inter-model spread is due to the latter. We find that, in particular, the inter-model spreads in the extratropical northern and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) changes are two important sources of the uncertainty in the Sahel summer rainfall projections via two different atmospheric teleconnection processes. On the one hand, a warmer northern Atlantic SST would induce an anomalous large-scale cyclone over North Africa and Europe, and the southern branch would strengthen the western African monsoonal circulation, leading to a wetter Sahel. On the other hand, a warmer tropical Atlantic SST would weaken the regional circulation, resulting in a drier Sahel. Our results suggest that an improved projection of the future Atlantic warming, especially the differential warming between the northern and tropical Atlantic, is a priority for the reliable future projection of Sahel summer rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spring tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in North Atlantic are an outstanding regional mode of interannual variability. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets during 1979–2019, this study reveals the relationship and linking mechanism between the spring tripole North Atlantic SST anomalies and the central China July precipitation (CCJP). Results show that the tripole SST anomalies, especially the warm SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the subpolar North Atlantic (SNA), often cause surplus CCJP through the tropical and extratropical pathways. On the one hand, the spring TNA SST warming induces a pan-tropical climate response with the cooling in the central equatorial Pacific and the warming in the Indo-western Pacific until the following July through a series of air–sea interactions, helping maintain an anomalous anticyclone over the northwest Pacific and transport more warm humid flows to central China. On the other hand, the spring TNA and SNA SST warming persist into the following July and then emanate a wave train extending from the SNA throughout the Eurasian continent to East Asia, which induces an anomalous anticyclone over North China with its southeast flank transporting more cold air to central China. The warm humid flows from the south against the cold air from the north are conductive to the local ascending motion, favoring the increased CCJP. Our results highlight both the tropical and extratropical teleconnection pathways of the North Atlantic SST anomalies affecting the CCJP. This suggests an important seasonal predictor of the regional climate. Significance Statement: July is the peak rainy month of central China, with heavy precipitation occurring frequently and often causing serious impacts on the local production and livelihood of millions of people. This study finds that the spring tripole sea surface temperature anomalies in North Atlantic induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation can exert significant impacts on the following July precipitation over central China through both the tropical and extratropical pathways. This improves our understanding of the causes of the surplus July precipitation over central China and has important implications for the seasonal predictability of the regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Year-to-year variations of summer precipitation over the densely populated central China can exert great impacts on the local society and economy. Using the observed and reanalyzed datasets for the period 1960–2020, this study investigates the relationship between the decaying El Niño and the central China summer precipitation (CCSP). The results show that the central China tends to feature excessive precipitation during post-El Niño summers. In particular, we find that such a climatic effect of El Niño exhibits an evident interdecadal strengthening since the early 1990s. This is due to the changing intensity and duration of the El Niño events. Compared to the prior decades (1960–1992), there are stronger intensity and longer duration of the El Niño-related warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical central Pacific in the epoch after the early 1990s (1993–2020). Through the Walker circulation adjustment, the strengthened intensity and longer duration of the central Pacific SST anomalies cause stronger and longer-lasting easterly anomalies along the equatorial Indian Ocean, which can further intensify the SST warming over the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) in boreal spring following El Niño by forcing a downwelling Rossby wave. The robust SWIO warming induces stronger Indian Ocean basin-wide SST warming and anomalous anticyclone over the Northwest Pacific in post-El Niño summers through initiating a series of ocean-atmospheric interactions. As a result, the anomalous anticyclone would deliver the abundant water vapor to the central China and contribute to increased local summer precipitation. By contrast, in the prior epoch (1960–1992), the El Niño-related SST warming in the central Pacific is relatively weaker and shorter-lasting, which results in weaker Indo-Pacific climate interactions in the decaying summer, thus having no significant impact on the CCSP. Our results highlight a strengthening influence of El Niño on the following summer precipitation over the central China since the early 1990s. This has important implications for the regional seasonal climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central China summer precipitation (CCSP) is of great importance to the people's livelihood of this densely populated region, including the agriculture, ecosystems, water resources, economies, and health. Based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric reanalysis datasets, the present study investigates the effects of El Niño in the developing stage on the CCSP during 1960–2014. The results show that the CCSP anomalies exhibit significant negative correlations with the El Niño-related SST anomalies in both the simultaneous summer and the following winter, implying that the developing El Niño is important for modulating the CCSP. However, this climatic teleconnection of El Niño is unstable, with an obvious interdecadal change around the late 1980s. Specifically, the negative correlation is not statistically significant in the previous epoch before the late 1980s (1960–1988), but dramatically strengthens since the late 1980s (the post epoch for 1989–2014). Such an interdecadal change is closely associated with the change of the El Niño-related SST anomaly pattern. Compared to the previous epoch, the central Pacific El Niño occurs more frequently in the post epoch, leading to an interdecadal shift of the maximum warm SST anomalies from the eastern Pacific to the central Pacific. The resultant westward extension of the atmospheric circulation responses induces an anomalous low-level cyclone covering South China in the post epoch. It would prevent the southwest monsoon from delivering the moisture to the north and hence reduce the CCSP. While, in the previous epoch, the anomalous cyclone locates east of South China, exerting insignificant influence on the CCSP. This work highlights a strengthening effect of El Niño on the CCSP since the late 1980s, with great implications for the regional seasonal climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the complexity of the climate system and limitations of numerical dynamical models, machine learning based on big data has been used for climate forecasting in recent years. In this study, we attempted to use an artificial neural network (ANN) for summer precipitation forecasts in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin (YHRB), eastern China. The major ANN employed here is the standard backpropagation neural network (BPNN), which was modified for application to the YHRB. Using the analysis data of precipitation and the predictors/factors of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature, we calculated the correlation coefficients between precipitation and the factors. In addition, we sorted the top six factors for precipitation forecasts. In order to obtain accurate forecasts, month (factor)-to-month (precipitation) forecast models were applied over the training and validation periods (i.e., summer months over 1979–2011 and 2012–2019, respectively). We compared the standard BPNN with the BPNN using a genetic algorithm-based backpropagation (GABP), support vector machine (SVM) and multiple linear regression (MLR) for the summer precipitation forecast after the model training period, and found that the GABP method is the best among the above methods for precipitation forecasting, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of approximately 20% for the YHRB, which is substantially lower than the BPNN, SVM and MLR values. We then selected the best summer precipitation forecast of the GABP month-to-month models by summing up monthly precipitation, in order to obtain the summer scale forecast, which presents a very successful performance in terms of evaluation measures. For example, the basin-averaged MAPE and anomaly rate reach 4.7% and 88.3%, respectively, for the YHRB, which can be a good recommendation for future operational services. It appears that sea surface temperatures (SST) in some key areas dominate the factors for the forecasts. These results indicate the potential of applying GABP to summer precipitation forecasts in the YHRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are long-lasting extreme oceanic warming events that can cause devastating effects on warm-water corals and associated ecosystems. The linear trend and interannual variability of MHWs over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) during 1982–2020 are investigated by a high-resolution daily sea surface temperature (SST) dataset. In regions where warm-water coral reefs are concentrated, annual MHW days and frequency significantly increase during 1982–2020, at rates exceeding that of the global mean. The coldest boreal winter season witnesses significant and steady increase trends in MHW days and frequency. In contrast, the trend is insignificant in the climatological warmest season (March to June) south of 15° N in the BOB, mainly due to large interannual variability. El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates the interannual variability of BOB MHWs, which are highly consistent with the evolution of the mean SST. The negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also modulates the occurrences of MHWs, especially over the northeastern BOB. The two climate modes synergistically explain about 50~70% of the interannual variances in the BOB's MHWs. Correlation analysis reveals that south of 15° N in the BOB, the effect of El Niño on MHWs is evident from the boreal autumn of its developing phase to the boreal summer of its decaying phase, along with limited influence from NAO. However, in the northeast of the BOB, the effect of El Niño merely emerges from April to August of its decaying stage. In comparison, boreal winter-to-spring NAO exerts a strong control over March-to-June MHWs in the northeastern BOB. The results suggest that various climate modes may jointly or separately influence MHWs at certain seasons and locations, which is important for the seasonal prediction of MHWs. Indeed, when combining the Niño3.4 mature winter index and boreal winter-to-spring NAO index to build a regression model, it is more effective in reproducing the BOB's MHW frequency compared to the Niño3.4 index alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño is a dominant source of interannual climate variability around the world. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets for the period of 1958–2019, this study explores the influence of El Niño on the spring precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP). The results show that El Niño has a significant negative correlation with the following spring precipitation over the ICP. However, this climatic teleconnection of El Niño was unstable, with an obvious interdecadal strengthening since the early 1990s. During the decaying spring, the El Niño–related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies would induce an abnormal downward motion along with an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific. Before the early 1990s, such El Niño–induced atmospheric circulation anomalies were located to the east of the ICP, exerting little influence on the spring ICP precipitation. In contrast, since the early 1990s, the abnormal downward motion and anomalous low-level anticyclone extended westward covering the whole ICP, hampering local spring precipitation. This interdecadal change is owing to a relatively stronger intensity and longer duration of the El Niño–related warm SST anomalies over the tropical central Pacific in the epoch after the early 1990s (1992–2019) than in the previous decades (1958–91). Our findings highlight a strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring climate over the ICP since the early 1990s, which has great implications for the regional climate prediction. Significance Statement: Spring precipitation variation has profound economic and societal influences for the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) that consists of several agriculture-based countries. Moreover, the local soil moisture anomaly induced by the ICP spring precipitation is an important seasonal predictor for the East Asian summer monsoon and extreme climate. Here this study identifies a strengthening influence of El Niño on the following spring precipitation over the ICP, due to a relatively stronger intensity and longer duration of the El Niño–related warm SST anomalies over the tropical central Pacific since the early 1990s. This may provide an important implication for the seasonal predictions of summer monsoon and extreme climate over East Asia and thus potentially enhance the predictability of regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the summer following El Niño, a basinwide sea surface temperature (SST) warming takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), exerting profound influences on the Asian summer monsoon. This is an important source of seasonal predictability for the Asian summer monsoon. Based on observations, however, the present study finds that the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the TIO SST anomalies during the decaying summer is asymmetric with a much weaker relationship between La Niña and the TIO SST anomalies relative to El Niño. The analyses show that this asymmetric relationship can be explained by the asymmetries in initial TIO SST, the oceanic Rossby wave in the southern Indian Ocean, and the ENSO decaying rate. In contrast to El Niño events, La Niña events tend to have a stronger initial TIO warming and a lower peak intensity with a weaker oceanic Rossby wave response in the southern Indian Ocean. On the other hand, La Niña events tend to decay more slowly with the persistent SST cooling over the central equatorial Pacific in the following summer. The equatorial Pacific SST cooling induces an anomalous anticyclone via a Gill-type Rossby wave response, weakening the positive feedback between the anomalous cyclone spanning the tropical northwest Pacific and north Indian Oceans and the TIO summer basinwide SST cooling. These results have important implications for the climate predictability of the Indian Ocean and Asian summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Whether the state-of-the-art CMIP5 models have different El Niño types and how the degree of modeled El Niño diversity would be impacted by the future global warming are still heavily debated. In this study, cluster analysis is used to investigate El Niño diversity in 30 CMIP5 models. As the method does not rely on any prior knowledge of the patterns of El Niño seen in observations, it provides a practical way to identify the degree of El Niño diversity in models. Under the historical scenario, most models show a poor degree of El Niño diversity in their own model world, primarily due to the lopsided numbers of events belonging to the two modeled El Niño types and the weak compactness of events in each cluster. Four models are found showing significant El Niño diversity, yet none of them captures the longitudinal distributions of the warming centers of the two El Niño types seen in the observations. Heat budget analysis of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly suggests that the degree of modeled El Niño diversity is highly related to the climatological zonal SST gradient over the western-central equatorial Pacific in models. As the gradient is weakened in most models under the future high-emission scenario, the degree of modeled El Niño diversity is further reduced in the future. The results indicate that a better simulation of the SST gradient over the western-central equatorial Pacific might allow a more reliable simulation/projection of El Niño diversity in most CMIP5 models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) with poor equatorial rainfall over the eastern Pacific Ocean distinctively occurs in March–April. Here we find that double ITCZs and equatorial precipitation are strongly linked to meridionally symmetric (or asymmetric) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns during eastern Pacific (EP)‐type (or central Pacific [CP]‐type) El Niño episodes. EP‐type El Niño weakens the north–south asymmetry of the eastern Pacific double ITCZs by moving them equatorward. In contrast, CP‐type El Niño strengthens the north–south asymmetry of the double ITCZs by strengthening the northern ITCZ and weakening the southern ITCZ. While EP‐type El Niño brings unique flourishing Galápagos Islands owing to warm equatorial SST anomalies with major local and remote climate effects, CP‐type El Niño causes drier Galápagos Islands by decreasing equatorial eastern Pacific SST. This study highlights the distinctly different climate effects of EP‐ and CP‐type El Niños in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant biases of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) lead to considerable uncertainty in climate predictions and projections. Based on the historical simulations in the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we identify that state-of-the-art CGCMs commonly simulate insufficient Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall along with too weak monsoon circulations. Such ISM rainfall/circulation biases, however, are absent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST), suggesting that the common ISM biases are not intrinsic errors of the atmospheric models but arise from the interaction between the monsoon and the oceans. A multimodel statistical analysis further shows that the ISM rainfall/circulation biases in CMIP5 models can be traced back to the excessively cold SST over the northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The systemic cold SST biases in the NIO suppress local convective activity and reduce air temperature, resulting in a weak north-south thermal contrast in the mid-upper troposphere. This would induce an excessively weak ISM circulation and resultant insufficient monsoon rainfall. Furthermore, the dynamic effect of cold NIO SST biases on the ISM rainfall/circulation simulations is also confirmed through several sensitivity experiments by using the widely-applied Weather Research and Forecasting model. To the extent that the cold SST biases over the NIO may originate from an excessively strong Indian winter monsoon, improving the winter monsoon simulation is an important prerequisite for better summer climate simulations and predictions/projections over the broad ISM region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The excessive cold tongue error in the equatorial Pacific has persisted in several generations of climate models. Based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble (MME), this study finds that models with an excessive westward extension of cold tongue and insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation tend to project a weaker east-minus-west gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) warming along the equatorial Pacific under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This La Niña-like error of tropical Pacific SST warming is consistent with our understanding of negative SST-convective feedback over the western Pacific warm pool. Based on this relationship between the present simulations and future projections, the present study applies an 'observational constraint' of equatorial western Pacific precipitation to calibrate the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. After the corrections, CMIP5 models robustly project an El Niño-like warming pattern, with a MME mean increase by a factor of 2.3 in east-minus-west gradient of equatorial Pacific SST warming and reduced inter-model uncertainty. Corrections in projected changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation are physically consistent. This study suggests that a realistic cold tongue simulation would lead to a more reliable tropical Pacific climate projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An open-ocean thermocline dome south of the equator is a striking feature of the Indian Ocean (IO) as a result of equatorial westerly winds. Over the thermocline dome, the El Niño-forced Rossby waves help sustain the IO basin (IOB) mode and offer climate predictability for the IO and surrounding countries. This study shows that a common equatorial easterly wind bias, by forcing a westward-propagating downwelling Rossby wave in the southern IO, induces too deep a thermocline dome over the southwestern IO (SWIO) in state-of-the-art climate models. Such a deep SWIO thermocline weakens the influence of subsurface variability on sea surface temperature (SST), reducing the IOB amplitude and possibly limiting the models' skill of regional climate prediction. To the extent that the equatorial easterly wind bias originates from errors of the South Asian summer monsoon, improving the monsoon simulation can lead to substantial improvements in simulating and predicting interannual variability in the IO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-standing biases of climate models limit the skills of climate prediction and projection. Overlooked are tropical Indian Ocean (IO) errors. Based on the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, the present study identifies a common error pattern in climate models that resembles the IO dipole (IOD) mode of interannual variability in nature, with a strong equatorial easterly wind bias during boreal autumn accompanied by physically consistent biases in precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and subsurface ocean temperature. The analyses show that such IOD-like biases can be traced back to errors in the South Asian summer monsoon. A southwest summer monsoon that is too weak over the Arabian Sea generates a warm SST bias over the western equatorial IO. In boreal autumn, Bjerknes feedback helps amplify the error into an IOD-like bias pattern in wind, precipitation, SST, and subsurface ocean temperature. Such mean state biases result in an interannual IOD variability that is too strong. Most models project an IOD-like future change for the boreal autumn mean state in the global warming scenario, which would result in more frequent occurrences of extreme positive IOD events in the future with important consequences to Indonesia and East Africa. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) characterizes this future IOD-like projection in the mean state as robust based on consistency among models, but the authors' results cast doubts on this conclusion since models with larger IOD amplitude biases tend to produce stronger IOD-like projected changes in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the air-sea interface heat fluxes and related meteorological variables datasets recently released by Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes (OA Flux) Project of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, as well as the outgoing longwave radiation and surface wind datasets from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the seasonal dependence of local air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific warm pool (referred to the region (1°-6°N, 144°-154°E)) is revealed and the probable impacts of remote forcing on the air-sea interaction are examined. The results indicated the dominance of oceanic forcing with the significant impact of ENSO in March and that of atmospheric feedback without notable influence of remote forcing in June. While the interannual variability of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is larger than that of SSTA tendency when oceanic forcing is dominant, the opposite is true when atmospheric feedback is dominant. The magnitude of the oceanic forcing of the atmosphere tends to decrease in March with the occurrence of ENSO, though ENSO has little influence on the atmospheric feedback to the ocean in June. The local air-sea interaction is substantially the same before and after the removal of the effect of Indian Oceanic Dipole. The reduction of shortwave radiation fluxes into the western Pacific warm pool, due to the enhanced overlaying convection in March associated with ENSO, leads to the decline of SST tendency that will weaken the oceanic forcing of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using multiple surface wind speed (SWS) data sets and trend empirical orthogonal function analysis, we have explored the trend in SWS associated with the large-scale tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation for the period 1979-2001. The present research provides a robust evidence of strengthening of the tropical Pacific Ocean SWS during this period and the magnitude is generally in line with the finding of Wentz et al. The strengthening in SWS is closely associated with the so-called La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) trend pattern rather than the changes in the ENSO, ENSO Modoki, or PDO. The present results, together with those from some recent climate model simulations, suggest that global warming forcing may have caused an intensification of SWS in the tropical Pacific Ocean by inducing the La Niña-like SST trend pattern due to ocean dynamics. Meanwhile, the strengthening in the tropical Pacific Ocean surface trade winds may also feedback to enhance the La Niña-like SST trend pattern under the positive wind-upwelling dynamic feedback mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, climate models tend to project a warmer sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific than in the western equatorial Pacific. This El Niño-like warming pattern may induce an increase in the projected occurrence frequency of extreme El Niño events. The current models, however, commonly suffer from an excessive westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue accompanied by insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation. By comparing the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments with the historical simulations based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), a "present–future" relationship among climate models was identified: models with insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation error would have a weaker mean El Niño-like warming pattern as well as a lower increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased GHG forcing. Using this "present–future" relationship and the observed precipitation in the equatorial western Pacific, this study calibrated the climate projections in the tropical Pacific. The corrected projections showed a stronger El Niño-like pattern of mean changes in the future, consistent with our previous study. In particular, the projected increased occurrence of extreme El Niño events under RCP 8.5 forcing are underestimated by 30–35% in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble before the corrections. This implies an increased risk of the El Niño-related weather and climate disasters in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diversity of El Niño is a critical field of the climate research. The eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño have been identified in the previous studies. However, the extreme El Niño event that occurred in 2015–2016 is quite different from both the EP and CP El Niño events. The sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTA) for this event widely spread in both the central and eastern Pacific and have a small zonal gradient in the central-eastern Pacific. Many researchers regarded this event as a mixed type of El Niño. Using the regression-EOF method, the Mix El Niño pattern is extracted from the tropical Pacific SSTA field during the period from 1900 to 2019. Here, we reveal that the Mix El Niño is a very usual rather than a new type of El Niño, it is just that the EP and CP El Niño events are more frequent since the 1980s, while the Mix El Niño events frequently appear before the 1980s. The time-spatial features of the Mix El Niño are further investigated. The results demonstrate a unique westward propagation of the maximum SSTA for the Mix El Niño from the far eastern Pacific to the central Pacific. In contrast, the SSTA center is locked in the far eastern Pacific region for the EP El Niño and the central Pacific region for the CP El Niño. The evolutions of subsurface ocean temperature anomalies and sea surface height anomalies are also examined to support this. The ocean–atmosphere interaction plays an important role in the evolution of the Mix El Niño. The anomalous atmospheric Walker circulation for the Mix El Niño is mainly in the western and central Pacific as well as very weak in the eastern Pacific. In contrast, there are significant westerlies/easterlies in the eastern Pacific for the EP/CP El Niño. The small gradient of SSTA in the central-eastern Pacific for the Mix El Niño leads to weak zonal wind anomalies, which further weaken the zonal gradient of SSTA. All this suggests that the Mix El Niño is not unusual and fundamentally different from the EP and CP El Niño with important implications for global climate effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the recent four decades, there were three record-breaking El Niño events: 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016 events. A double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) pattern distinctively emerges over the eastern Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. Based on reanalysis (ERA-Interim) during 1979–2018, this study examines how these three extreme El Niños modulate such double ITCZs. The 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Niños moved both northern and southern ITCZs equatorward to form an individual and broad equatorial ITCZ. In contrast, the regulation of 2015/2016 El Niño was unique with a strengthened southern ITCZ to form a symmetric double-ITCZ. The above differences can be attributed to the different meridional structures of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Niños, there was a meridionally symmetric structure of SST warming with a maximum at the equator. While for 2015/2016 El Niño, there was a meridionally symmetric structure of SST warming with a minimum at the equator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South China is one of the most densely populated and agriculture-based regions in China. Local spring precipitation is crucial to the people's livelihood and social economic development. Using the observed and reanalysis datasets for the period 1958–2019, this study revealed an asymmetric effect of El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the following spring precipitation over South China. During the years with positive ENSO phases, a strong positive correlation between spring precipitation and the preceding winter ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies existed over Guangdong province. For the years with negative ENSO phases, such a strong positive correlation shifts westwards to Guangxi province. To be specific, the El Niño events usually result in a precipitation surplus in the decaying spring over Guangdong province, while the La Niña events usually lead to a precipitation deficit in the decaying spring over Guangxi province. This is attributed to the nonlinear effects of ENSO on the atmospheric circulation. Compared with El Niño, the abnormal center of La Niña evidently extends westwards, inducing a westward movement of the anomalous low-level atmospheric circulation, which eventually results in a westward-shifted effect on the following spring precipitation over South China. Our findings emphasize the nonlinear responses of spring precipitation over South China to ENSO. This has important implications for the seasonal climate predictions over South China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño events vary from case to case with different decaying paces. In this study, we demonstrate that the different El Niño decaying paces have distinct impacts on the East Asian monsoon circulation pattern during post-El Niño summers. For fast decaying (FD) El Niño summers, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone dominates over East Asia and the North Pacific from subtropical to mid-latitude; whereas, the East Asian monsoon circulation display a dipole pattern with anomalous northern cyclone and southern anticyclone for slow decaying (SD) El Niño summers. The difference in anomalous East Asian monsoon circulation patterns was closely associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns in the tropics. In FD El Niño summers, the cold SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and warm SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent induce the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific. In contrast, the warm Kelvin wave anchored over the tropical Indian Ocean during SD El Niño summers plays a crucial role in sustaining the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific. In particular, the opposite atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns over Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude North Pacific are mainly modulated by the stationary Rossby wave trains triggered by the opposite SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific during FD and SD El Niño summers. Finally, the effect of distinct summer monsoon circulation patterns associated with the El Niño decay pace on the summer climate over East Asia are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal warming over the southwestern Yellow Sea (YS) in the spring is of vital importance to the local ecologic environment, especially to the massive green algae blooms of the YS in late spring and early summer. Based on daily optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (SST) data consisting of satellite derived SST from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and in situ measurements, this study analyzed the spring SST variation over the southwestern YS (SWYS) from 1982 to 2018. The results show that the recent warming trend of spring SST over the SWYS is four-to-six times that of the global average, and as a result, sea water over the Subei Shoal (SBS) shifts about 10–13 days earlier to reach 10 °C in early April. This implies that, accordingly, the micro-propagules of green algae over the SBS may have the chance to germinate earlier. SST variability in early April significantly correlates with northerly wind and exhibits a general warming over the SWYS with an intensified warming anchored along the axis of the submarine canyon off the Yangtze estuary. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) red–green–blue composite images captured the intrusion of the Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) into the SWYS through the submarine canyon during northerly wind relaxation in early April. Ocean remote sensing provides important clues for understanding the regional SST variability in the SWYS. Following this clue, this study finds that the weakening of winter monsoon in the spring leads to northward migration of the TWC and results in enhanced spring warming over the SWYS. The attendant advanced warming in spring, resulting in a favorable temperature condition for early development of green alga, may have contributed to the green tide blooms in the Yellow Sea in the recent decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]