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Tropical cyclones (TCs) can transport birds and insects near their center of circulation. In this study, we examined the maximum altitude, area and density of the radar‐derived bioscatter signature across a set of 42 TC centers of circulation sampled from 2011 to 2020. All TC events contained at least one time when a bioscatter signature was present. More intense hurricanes with closed eyes typically had taller and denser bioscatter signatures, and sometimes larger areas dominated by bioscatter. This indicated a larger number of organisms within the circulation of more intense hurricanes, supporting the speculation that those storms were most likely to trap birds that do not want to risk flying through their eyewall thunderstorms. Larger and denser bioscatter signatures, indicating a larger number of birds, tend to occur when fall migration brings a large bird population to the Gulf and East Coasts where most storms were sampled. TC formation location was not related to bioscatter characteristics, but storms sampled in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida tended to have larger and denser bioscatter signatures.

The active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season produced 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes (category 3+ on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale). Though the season was active overall, the final two months (October–November) raised 2020 into the upper echelon of Atlantic hurricane activity for integrated metrics such as accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). This study focuses on October–November 2020, when 7 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes formed and produced ACE of 74 × 104 kt2 (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1). Since 1950, October–November 2020 ranks tied for third for named storms, first for hurricanes and major hurricanes, and second for ACE. Six named storms also underwent rapid intensification (≥30 kt intensification in ≤24 h) in October–November 2020—the most on record. This manuscript includes a climatological analysis of October–November tropical cyclones (TCs) and their primary formation regions. In 2020, anomalously low wind shear in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, likely driven by a moderate-intensity La Niña event and anomalously high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean, provided dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that were much more conducive than normal for late-season TC formation and rapid intensification. This study also highlights October–November 2020 landfalls, including Hurricanes Delta and Zeta in Louisiana and in Mexico and Hurricanes Eta and Iota in Nicaragua. The active late season in the Caribbean would have been anticipated by a statistical model using the July–September-averaged ENSO longitude index and Atlantic warm pool SSTs as predictors. We would like to acknowledge the three anonymous reviewers and the editor, Chris Landsea, for helpful comments that significantly improved the manuscript. P. Klotzbach thanks the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation for financial support that helped fund this research. K. Wood was supported by National Science Foundation Award AGS-2011812. M. Bell was supported by Office of Naval Research Award N000141613033. E. Gibney’s research was supported by NOAA’s Science Collaboration Program and administered by UCAR’s Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) under Awards NA16NWS4620043 and NA18NWS4620043B. C. Schreck was supported by NOAA through the Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies under Cooperative Agreement NA19NES4320002. We thank Christina Patricola for providing the ENSO longitude index and Chris Landsea for providing Fig. SB1.

The Paleogene history of biogenic opal accumulation in the North Atlantic provides insight into both the evolution of deepwater circulation in the Atlantic basin and weathering responses to major climate shifts. However, existing records are compromised by low temporal resolution and/or stratigraphic discontinuities. In order to address this problem, we present a multi-site, high-resolution record of biogenic silica (bioSiO2) accumulation from Blake Nose (ODP Leg 171B, western North Atlantic) spanning the early Paleocene to late Eocene time interval (∼65–34 Ma). This record represents the longest single-locality history of marine bioSiO2 burial compiled to date and offers a unique perspective into changes in bioSiO2 fluxes through the early to middle Paleogene extreme greenhouse interval and the subsequent period of long-term cooling. Blake Nose bioSiO2 fluxes display prominent fluctuations that we attribute to variations in sub-thermocline nutrient supply via cyclonic eddies associated with the Gulf Stream. Following elevated and pulsed bioSiO2 accumulation through the Paleocene to early Eocene greenhouse interval, a prolonged interval of markedly elevated bioSiO2 flux in the middle Eocene between ∼46 and 42 Ma is proposed to reflect nutrient enrichment at Blake Nose due to invigorated overturning circulation following an early onset of Northern Component Water export from the Norwegian–Greenland Sea at ∼49 Ma. Reduced bioSiO2 flux in the North Atlantic, in combination with increased bioSiO2 flux documented in existing records from the equatorial Pacific between ∼42 and 38 Ma, is interpreted to indicate diminished nutrient supply and reduced biosiliceous productivity at Blake Nose in response to weakening of the overturning circulation. Subsequently, in the late Eocene, a deepwater circulation regime favoring limited bioSiO2 burial in the Atlantic and enhanced bioSiO2 burial in the Pacific was established after ∼38 Ma, likely in conjunction with re-invigoration of deepwater export from the North Atlantic. We also observe that Blake Nose bioSiO2 fluxes through the middle Eocene cooling interval (∼48 to 34 Ma) are similar to or higher than background fluxes throughout the late Paleocene–early Eocene interval (∼65 to 48 Ma) of intense greenhouse warmth. This observation is consistent with a temporally variable rather than constant silicate weathering feedback strength model for the Paleogene, which would instead predict that marine bioSiO2 burial should peak during periods of extreme warming.

A harbor in Cabo San Lucas was damaged by Hurricane Genevieve.Tropical cyclone activity in the eastern North Pacific basin during the 2020 season was near average for total named storms but below a...

Hurricane Hanna storm damage in Texas.The 2020 hurricane season, in terms of the number of named storms, was the most active season on record, with 29 named tropical storms and 1 named subtropical ...

It was found in previous observational studies that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) can modulate the teleconnection over the Atlantic basin related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). In t...

Major Atlantic hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria of 2017 reached their peak intensity in September while traveling over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, where both atmospheric and ocean conditions were favorable for intensification. In situ and satellite ocean observations revealed that conditions in these areas exhibited (i) sea surface temperatures above 28°C, (ii) upper-ocean heat content above 60 kJ cm−2, and (iii) the presence of low-salinity barrier layers associated with a larger-than-usual extension of the Amazon and Orinoco riverine plumes. Proof-of-concept coupled ocean–hurricane numerical model experiments demonstrated that the accurate representation of such ocean conditions led to an improvement in the simulated intensity of Hurricane Maria for the 3 days preceding landfall in Puerto Rico, when compared to an experiment without the assimilation of ocean observations. Without the assimilation of ocean observations, upper-ocean thermal conditions were generally colder than observations, resulting in reduced air–sea enthalpy fluxes—enthalpy fluxes are more realistically simulated when the upper-ocean temperature and salinity structure is better represented in the model. Our results further showed that different components of the ocean observing system provide valuable information in support of improved TC simulations, and that assimilation of underwater glider observations alone enabled the largest improvement over the 24 h time frame before landfall. Our results, therefore, indicated that ocean conditions were relevant for more realistically simulating Hurricane Maria’s intensity. However, further research based on a comprehensive set of hurricane cases is required to confirm robust improvements to forecast systems.

The 1933 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, with 20 named storms and 11 hurricanes including 6 major (category 3+; 1-min maximum sustained winds ≥96 kt) hurricanes occurring. The 1933 hurricane season also generated the most accumulated cyclone energy (an integrated metric that accounts for frequency, intensity, and duration) of any Atlantic hurricane season on record. A total of 8 hurricanes tracked through the Caribbean in 1933—the most on record. In addition, two category 3 hurricanes made landfall in the United States just 23 h apart: the Treasure Coast hurricane in southeast Florida followed by the Cuba–Brownsville hurricane in south Texas. This manuscript examines large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions that likely led to such an active hurricane season. Extremely weak vertical wind shear was prevalent over both the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic throughout the peak months of the hurricane season, likely in part due to a weak-to-moderate La Niña event. These favorable dynamic conditions, combined with above-normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, created a very conducive environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The Madden–Julian oscillation was relatively active during the summer and fall of 1933, providing subseasonal conditions that were quite favorable for tropical cyclogenesis during mid- to late August and late September to early October. The current early June and August statistical models used by Colorado State University would have predicted a very active 1933 hurricane season. A better understanding of these extremely active historical Atlantic hurricane seasons may aid in anticipation of future hyperactive seasons.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin and has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions. This is the result of complex and nonlinear interactions between many spatio-temporal scales. Here, the authors study a number of linear and nonlinear models for a station-based time series of the daily winter NAO index. It is found that nonlinear autoregressive models including both short and long lags perform excellently in reproducing the characteristic statistical properties of the NAO, such as skewness and fat tails of the distribution and the different time scales of the two phases. As a spinoff of the modelling procedure, we are able to deduce that the interannual dependence of the NAO mostly affects the positive phase and that timescales of one to three weeks are more dominant for the negative phase. The statistical properties of the model makes it useful for the generation of realistic climate noise.

© Copyright [19-02-2020] American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (http://www.copyright.com). Questions about permission to use materials for which AMS holds the copyright can also be directed to permissions@ametsoc.org. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (http://www.ametsoc.org/CopyrightInformation). In recent years, a big effort has been made by part of the climate community toward the development of climate services in order to make climate information decision oriented. In a climate forecasting context, this means identifying climate variables, thresholds and/or events of relevance to users. Once identified, these elements, which generally do not coincide with variables typically forecasted by the scientific community, are analyzed to determine whether they can be predicted both reliably and skillfully at the appropriate time scale. This process generally requires a sustained dialogue between the different parties involved before coming to a fruitful conclusion. Here, we discuss two such efforts that attempt to bridge the gap between climate forecasting and application for two phenomena already receiving a fair amount of attention from the general public: hurricanes and Arctic sea ice. We would like to acknowledge the participation of the numerous forecasting organizations that submit their forecasts to both platforms on a regular basis, without whose support neither projects would be possible. LPC and PJK would like to acknowledge the support of XL Catlin (now AXA XL). FM is a F.R.S.–FNRS Research Associate. PJK would also like to acknowledge support from the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation. JS acknowledges the support of NE/R017123/1 [NSFGEO-NERC Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice: Phase 2 of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2)]. Finally, we are grateful to three anonymous reviewers who provided us with helpful comments.

The geographic position of Puerto Rico within the Atlantic basin exposes it to tropical cyclones from June to November. Research about the occurrence of tropical cyclones on the island tends to focus on intense and land-falling systems. Yet, the island and its residents are also at risk from cyclones that are of minor intensity or do not hit the island directly. In this short communication, we present the results of a spatiotemporal analysis of non-land-falling tropical storms and hurricanes near Puerto Rico between 1851 and 2018. We also present examples of the impacts and damage some of those systems have caused on the island and to its residents and argue that it is important to learn about such systems and take them into consideration for cyclone preparedness and management.

The Bahamas or Lucayan Archipelago located in the western North Atlantic Ocean is highly susceptible to impact of hurricanes considering its location along the major pathways of Atlantic hurricanes and increased storminess in the Atlantic basin. The hydrodynamics of the narrow and steep carbonate continental shelf of Bahamas archipelago provides a stark contrast to the east coast of the United States by means of distinct interaction of shelves with hurricane induced waves, storm tide and currents. The present study implements a coupled ADCIRC-SWAN model to investigate the surge and wave dynamics along the coasts of Bahamas archipelago during Hurricane Joaquin, using multiple reanalyzed wind products. The analysis is focused on the hydrodynamic response of the archipelago considering its varying coastal bathymetry, slope and arching coastlines. Model computed a maximum significant wave height of 15 m, storm surge 1.5 m and coastal currents of 4 m/s during Hurricane Joaquin. Moreover, validation study also shows very good agreement with the buoy observations from the region. Spatio-temporal variability of storm tide and waves along with nonlinear impacts of wave setup and setdown highlights the dominance of waves with moderate influence of storm tides along the coastal zone of the island chain. The study also evaluated interaction of coastal currents with the arching coastlines of the Bahamas. In addition, wave parameters attributed to the sinking of the cargo ship El-Faro during the Hurricane Joaquin have been examined. Significant wave heights exceeding 12.5 m with wave period of 12.5 s and the reversing wave direction during Hurricane Joaquin might have resulted in the capsize of the cargo ship.

Palaeo-oceanographical archives in the Mediterranean Sea indicate the occurrence of Sapropel depositions, which are characteristic of anoxic bottom conditions and of a stratified sea. The impact of such drastic changes in the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea on the large-scale circulations in the North Atlantic basin is not fully understood. Here we evaluate the impact of a direct perturbation of the Mediterranean Sea circulation through different idealized simulations with freshwater release rates of 20, 50, 100, and 200 mSv (1 mSv = 103 m3/s), using a the IPSL-CM5A-LR global coupled atmosphere-ocean model, with simulations up to 1000 years long. The simulations are compared to available data for the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic. The Neodymium isotopic composition (eNd) anomalies in the North Atlantic are clearly dependent on the rate of fresh water release in the Mediterranean Sea, and subsequent modification of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) intensity and subpolar gyre (SPG) extension. Based on comparison with seawater eNd records from Rockall Trough, we suggest that a limited release of freshwater around 50 mSv may be more representative of hydrological conditions of the Mediterranean Sea during the Sapropel S1 deposition. Our results indicate that a decrease in Mediterranean overflow was clearly a factor in the intensification of upper AMOC following the Early Holocene period, when a large eastward expansion of the subpolar gyre is simulated. Also, eastward expansion of the subpolar gyre due to freshwater release in the Mediterranean (e.g. Sapropel-like events) and its impact on the eNd signature highlight the fact that the modification of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic basin might be more complex than a straightforward change in the AMOC, since there may also be a large impact on barotropic circulation. The simulations also produce a significant decrease in the eNd values of the Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (between −3.5 and − 1.3 eNd unit), which is consistent with changes observed during the S1 event in the reconstructions. Thus the 3-dimensional changes in baroclinic and barotropic circulations of the ocean, as reconstructed in some eNd records, are broadly consistent with the sensitivity simulations performed, and might thus be partly related to changes in Mediterranean overflow, which would have contributed to modification of the Atlantic Ocean circulation following a complex 3-dimensional pattern that is detailed in the paper.

During August of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) was affected by two subsequent storms, Hurricanes Marco and Laura. Hurricane Marco entered the GoM first (22 August) and was briefly promoted to a Category 1 storm. Hurricane Laura followed Marco closely (25 August) and attained Category 4 status after a period of rapid intensification. Typically, hurricanes do not form this close together; this study aims to explain the existence of both hurricanes through the analysis of air-sea fluxes, local thermodynamics, and upper-level circulation. The GoM and its quality of warm, high ocean heat content waters proved to be a resilient and powerful reservoir of heat and moisture fuel for both hurricanes; however, an area of lower ocean heat content due to circulation dynamics was crucial in the evolution of both Marco and Laura. An analysis of wind shear further explained the evolution of both hurricanes. Furthermore, a suite of satellite observations and ocean model outputs were used to evaluate the biophysical modulations in the GoM. The cold core eddy (CCE) and Mississippi River surface plume had the greatest biophysical oceanic responses; the oceanic modulations were initialized by Marco and extended temporally and spatially by Laura. Reduced sea surface temperatures (SST), changes in sea surface salinity (SSS), and changes in Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations are related to translation speeds, and respective contributions of hurricane winds and precipitation are evaluated in this work.

International audience; Changes in ocean ventilation, controlled by both overturning rates and air‐sea gas exchange, are thought to have played a central role in atmospheric CO2 rise across the last deglaciation. Here, we constrain the nature of Atlantic Ocean ventilation changes over the last deglaciation using radiocarbon and stable carbon isotopes from two depth transects in the Atlantic basin. Our findings broadly cohere with the established pattern of deglacial Atlantic overturning change, and underline the existence of active northern sourced deep‐water export at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We find that the western Atlantic was less affected by incursions of southern‐sourced deep water, as compared to the eastern Atlantic, despite both sides of the basin being strongly influenced by the air‐sea equilibration of both northern and southern deep‐water end‐members. Ventilation at least as strong as modern is observed throughout the Atlantic during the Bølling‐Allerød (BA), implying a “flushing” of the entire Atlantic water column that we attribute to the combined effects of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) reinvigoration and increased air‐sea equilibration of southern sourced deep‐water. This ventilation “overshoot” may have counteracted a natural atmospheric CO2 decline during interstadial conditions, helping to make the BA a “point of no return” in the deglacial process. While the collected data emphasize a predominantly indirect AMOC contribution to deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise, via far field impacts on convection in the Southern Ocean and/or North Pacific during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas, the potential role of the AMOC in centennial CO2 pulses emerges as an important target for future work.

The dominant feature of large-scale mass transfer in the modern ocean is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The geometry and vigour of this circulation influences global climate on various timescales. Palaeoceanographic evidence suggests that during glacial periods of the past 1.5 million years the AMOC had markedly different features from today; in the Atlantic basin, deep waters of Southern Ocean origin increased in volume while above them the core of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) shoaled. An absence of evidence on the origin of this phenomenon means that the sequence of events leading to global glacial conditions remains unclear. Here we present multi-proxy evidence showing that northward shifts in Antarctic iceberg melt in the Indian–Atlantic Southern Ocean (0–50° E) systematically preceded deep-water mass reorganizations by one to two thousand years during Pleistocene-era glaciations. With the aid of iceberg-trajectory model experiments, we demonstrate that such a shift in iceberg trajectories during glacial periods can result in a considerable redistribution of freshwater in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that this, in concert with increased sea-ice cover, enabled positive buoyancy anomalies to ‘escape’ into the upper limb of the AMOC, providing a teleconnection between surface Southern Ocean conditions and the formation of NADW. The magnitude and pacing of this mechanism evolved substantially across the mid-Pleistocene transition, and the coeval increase in magnitude of the ‘southern escape’ and deep circulation perturbations implicate this mechanism as a key feedback in the transition to the ‘100-kyr world’, in which glacial–interglacial cycles occur at roughly 100,000-year periods., Acknowledgements This research used samples and/or data provided by the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP). Funding for this research was provided by The Natural Environmental Research Council GW4+ Doctoral Training Partnership (A.S.) and NERC grant NE/P000037/1 (I.R.H.). A.S. acknowledges further funding through the Antarctic Science International Bursary. X.Z. acknowledges funding from Lanzhou University (number 225000-830006) and National Key R&D programme of China (number 2018YFA0606403). F.J.J.-E. acknowledges funding through Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant CTM2017-89711-C2-1-P), co-funded by the European Union through FEDER funds. G.K. acknowledges funding by the German Helmholtz national REKLIM initiative and the BMBF project PalMod. L. Owen, S. Slater, A. Nedebragt and D. Muir are thanked for laboratory assistance.

The intensity of major storm events generated within the Atlantic Basin is projected to rise with the warming of the oceans, which is likely to exacerbate coastal erosion. Nature-based flood defence has been proposed as a sustainable and effective solution to protect coastlines. However, the ability of natural ecosystems to withstand major storms like tropical hurricanes has yet to be thoroughly tested. Seagrass meadows both stabilise sediment and attenuate waves, providing effective coastal protection services for sandy beaches. To examine the tolerance of Caribbean seagrass meadows to extreme storm events, and to investigate the extent of protection they deliver to beaches, we employed a combination of field surveys, biomechanical measurements and wave modelling simulations. Field surveys of seagrass meadows before and after a direct hit by the category 5 Hurricane Irma documented that established seagrass meadows of Thalassia testudinum remained unaltered after the extreme storm event. The flexible leaves and thalli of seagrass and calcifying macroalgae inhabiting the meadows were shown to sustain the wave forces that they are likely to experience during hurricanes. In addition, the seagrass canopy and the complex biogeomorphic landscape built by the seagrass meadows combine to significantly dissipate extreme wave forces, ensuring that erosion is minimised within sandy beach foreshores. The persistence of the Caribbean seagrass meadows and their coastal protection services during extreme storm events ensures that a stable coastal ecosystem and beach foreshore is maintained in tropical regions.

The northern Bahamas have experienced more frequent intense-hurricane impacts than almost anywhere else in the Atlantic since 1850 CE. In 2019, category 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the destructive potential of these natural hazards. Problematically, determining whether high hurricane activity levels remained constant through time is difficult given the short observational record (

During the 2019 peak hurricane season, two gliders operated by Texas A&M University (TAMU) and the University of Southern Mississippi (USM) and funded by Shell Exploration & Production Company were deployed as part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Glider Program to collect near-real time subsurface ocean temperature and salinity measurements for data assimilation into global ocean and hurricane models. The missions were designed to resolve regional ocean features that can contribute to hurricane intensity and provide spatial coverage in the event of a tropical cyclone with the intent to capture potential intensification prior to landfall. For the Gulf of Mexico, the Mississippi River plume, Loop Current, and Loop Current Eddies are areas of interest that can contribute to hurricane intensity. Tropical Storms Nester and Olga were named storms during the 2019 season in the Atlantic Basin, and their trajectories passed by the USM and TAMU gliders, respectively. While changes in the sea surface temperature were more likely due to the presence of seasonal fronts rather than the passing of these tropical storms, the data did indicate pockets of subsurface warm water under a freshwater plume from the Mississippi River. Currently, multiple hurricane glider missions are underway in the Gulf of Mexico during a record breaking 2020 season with Hurricane Laura anticipated to make landfall early morning (local time) on Thursday, August 27, 2020 near the Texas/Louisiana border.

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season exhibited above‐average Accumulated Cyclone Energy—60% of which was produced by Hurricanes Dorian and Lorenzo. Most tropical cyclone (TC) activity was concentrated in a ~6‐week period from late August to early October. During the early part of the season, relatively TC‐unfavorable conditions persisted in the main development region (MDR). The MDR environment became largely favorable in September, followed by an abrupt shift back to less conducive conditions in October coincident with a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD produced an El Niño‐like teleconnection pattern observed through 200‐hPa velocity potential anomalies. In the subtropical Atlantic, above‐average sea surface temperatures persisted for much of the season, which may have contributed to increased activity at higher latitudes. Given the neutral El Niño‐Southern Oscillation conditions during the 2019 hurricane season, our study highlights the need for further analysis of IOD impacts on Atlantic TC activity. K. Wood was supported by the Office of Research and Economic Development and the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University. P. Klotzbach acknowledges a grant from the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation. C. Schreck was supported by NOAA through the Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies under Cooperative Agreement NA19NES4320002. The authors thank Dr. Chris Landsea and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful feedback, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We investigated the long-term changes of the principal tidal component M2 over the North Atlantic coasts, from 1846 to 2018. We analysed 9 tide gauges with time series starting no later than 1920. The longest is Brest with 165 years of observations. We carefully processed the data, particularly to remove the 18.6-year nodal modulation. We found that M2 variations are consistent at all the stations in the North East Atlantic (Newlyn, Brest, Cuxhaven), whereas some discrepancies appear in the North West Atlantic. The changes started long before the XXth century, and are not linear. The trends vary from a station to another; they are overall positive, up to 0.7 mm/yr. Since 1990, the trends switch from positive to negative values. Concerning the possible causes of the observed changes, the similarity between the North Atlantic Oscillation and M2 variations in the North East Atlantic suggests a possible influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the tide. We discuss a possible underlying mechanism. A different spatial distribution of water heights from one year to another, depending on the low-frequency sea-level pressure patterns, could impact the propagation of the tide in the North Atlantic basin. However, the hypothesis is at present unproven.

The invasive coral Tubastraea tagusensis (sun coral) is a habitat-forming species currently increasing its geographical range into the Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Scuba divers observed this coral in the western equatorial Atlantic in January 2020, growing at high densities on a shipwreck from World War II (sunk in 1943) at a depth of approximately 32 m. Available footage from the beginning of the decade (2012–2018) shows no obvious signs of sun coral on this shipwreck, suggesting recent colonization and range expansion. The recent evidence of expansion was found 200 km east of the last record, which was also found on a WWII shipwreck (sunk in 1942) in 2016. We have identified hundreds of overlooked WWII shipwrecks, as well as new wrecks in shallow and mesophotic waters, that may provide stepping-stone habitats for this coral to expand its distribution in the Atlantic. We discuss the role of shipwrecks as a network of stepping stones for the sun coral spread, creating complementary paths for the invasiveness by overcoming physiological traits and the short lifespan of the coral larvae. Previous research underestimates the importance of these artificial stepping-stone patches in sustaining crucial dispersal events and range expansion of invasive species. These results are a call to action to manage the invasive Tubastraea corals at a national and international scale in the Atlantic basin.

Under a changing climate, projections estimate that over the next thirty years, extreme Tropical Cyclones (TCs) will increase in frequency, with two to three times more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin between 20°N and 40°N. In recent years, the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean basins have experienced several extreme TCs, resulting in extensive human, ecological, and economic damage [1], [2], [3]. To improve understanding of TCs and their potential impacts in the face of climate change, physically based understanding of past climate and modern TC dynamics is necessary. Despite the well-known Atlantic hurricane season, surface observations of the isotopic evolution of TC's moisture and the propagation of isotopically distinct pulses across surface and subsurface water reservoirs are lacking. In this data article, we provide novel high frequency sampling of surface rainfall isotope compositions (δ18O, δ2H, and d-excess in ‰) for Hurricanes Otto (Costa Rica, 2016), Nate (Costa Rica, 2017), Irma (Cuba and The Bahamas, 2017), Maria (Cuba and The Bahamas, 2017), and Dorian (The Bahamas, 2019). These five TCs were characterized by unprecedented impacts during continental and maritime landfalls and passages. In total, 161 surface rainfall samples were collected in passive devices [4] with event-based and daily frequencies, resulting in the first surface isotopic tempestology anatomy across the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean basins to date. Derived rainfall from TCs often results in large input amounts of isotopically distinct water over an area from few hours to several days, and therefore this unique isotope composition is propagated through surface and shallow subsurface reservoirs. Our data also include spring (N=338) and surface water (N=334) isotope compositions following the impact of Hurricane Otto and Tropical Storm Nate in central Costa Rica. As this region is well-known for its diverse rainfall dynamics and as a climate change ‘hot spot’ [5], [6], [7], our data provide an opportunity to improve and complement modern and past climate interpretations often derived from satellite products and calcite-δ18O paleoclimatic archives in light of climatic forcing, TC rainfall amounts and recharge rates, and the hypothesized climatic-induced decline of past Mesoamerican civilizations. Bajo un clima cambiante, las proyecciones estiman que durante los próximos treinta años, los ciclones tropicales extremos (CT) aumentarán en frecuencia, con dos o tres veces más huracanes de categoría 4 y 5 en la cuenca atlántica entre 20 ° N y 40 ° N. En los últimos años, las cuencas del Mar Caribe y el Océano Atlántico han experimentado varias CT extremas, lo que ha provocado grandes daños humanos, ecológicos y económicos [1], [2], [3]. Para mejorar la comprensión de las CT y sus impactos potenciales frente al cambio climático, es necesaria una comprensión física del clima pasado y de la dinámica de las CT modernas. A pesar de la conocida temporada de huracanes en el Atlántico, faltan observaciones superficiales de la evolución isotópica de la humedad de TC y la propagación de pulsos isotópicamente distintos a través de depósitos de agua superficiales y subterráneos. En este artículo de datos, proporcionamos un muestreo novedoso de alta frecuencia de la composición de isótopos de lluvia superficial (δ18O, δ2H y exceso d en ‰) para los huracanes Otto (Costa Rica, 2016), Nate (Costa Rica, 2017), Irma (Cuba y Las Bahamas, 2017), María (Cuba y Las Bahamas, 2017) y Dorian (Las Bahamas, 2019). Estas cinco operaciones de cooperación técnica se caracterizaron por impactos sin precedentes durante los pasajes y recaladas continentales y marítimas. En total, se recolectaron 161 muestras de lluvia superficial en dispositivos pasivos [4] con frecuencias diarias y basadas en eventos, lo que resultó en la primera anatomía de tempestología isotópica superficial en las cuencas del Mar Caribe y el Océano Atlántico hasta la fecha. La lluvia derivada de los CT a menudo da como resultado grandes cantidades de entrada de agua isotópicamente distinta en un área desde unas pocas horas hasta varios días y, por lo tanto, esta composición isotópica única se propaga a través de depósitos superficiales y subterráneos poco profundos. Nuestros datos también incluyen composiciones isotópicas de manantiales (N = 338) y aguas superficiales (N = 334) luego del impacto del huracán Otto y la tormenta tropical Nate en el centro de Costa Rica. Como esta región es bien conocida por su diversa dinámica de lluvias y como un 'punto caliente' del cambio climático [5], [6], [7], nuestros datos brindan una oportunidad para mejorar y complementar las interpretaciones climáticas modernas y pasadas a menudo derivadas de productos satelitales y archivos paleoclimáticos de calcita-δ18O a la luz del forzamiento climático, las cantidades de lluvia de CT y las tasas de recarga, y el supuesto declive inducido por el clima de las civilizaciones mesoamericanas pasadas. Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica Escuela de Química

Rapid Intensification (RI) of hurricanes is difficult to predict and poses a formidable threat to coastal populations. While a warm upper-ocean is well-known to favor RI, the role of salinity is less clear. In this study, using a suite of observations, we demonstrate that the subsurface oceans' influence on Atlantic hurricane RI exhibits two regimes. In the western region, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, temperature stratification plays an important role in hurricane RI with little impact from salinity. On the other hand, in the eastern region dominated by the Amazon-Orinoco plume, salinity stratification prominently impacts RI. While a weak temperature stratification aids cold wake reduction for hurricanes in the western region, a strong salinity stratification causes less hurricane-induced mixing and surface cooling in the eastern region. Finally, in both regions, the relevance of the cold wake, and consequently the ocean sub-surface, is enhanced during RI compared to weaker intensification.

The current lack of a standardized approach to compute the coastal oil spill hazard due to maritime traffic accidental releases has hindered an accurate estimate of its global impact, which is paramount to manage and intercompare the associated risks. We propose here a hazard estimation approach that is based on ensemble simulations and the extraction of the relevant frequency distributions. We demonstrate that both open ocean and beached oil concentration distributions fit a Weibull curve, a two-parameter fat-tail probability distribution function. The simulation experiments are carried out in all the coastal areas of the Atlantic ocean basin. An indicator that quantify the coastal oil spill hazard is proposed and applied to the study areas.

The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season was a destructive season with hurricanes Florence and Michael causing significant damage in the southeastern United States. In keeping with most destructive hurricane seasons, basinwide tropical cyclone activity was above average in 2018—by ~25% for named storm numbers, hurricane numbers, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). In contrast to this above‐normal activity, the August–September tropical environmental fields that explain ~50% of the variance in Atlantic basin hurricane activity between 1950 and 2017 anticipated a well below‐average 2018 hurricane season. The surprisingly large mismatch between the observed and replicated levels of hurricane activity in 2018 is an extreme example of the uncertainty inherent in seasonal hurricane outlooks and highlights the need for these outlooks to be issued in terms of probability of exceedance. Such probabilistic information would better clarify the uncertainty associated with hurricane outlooks to the benefit of users. With retrospective knowledge of the August–September 2018 key tropical environmental fields, the chance that the observed 2018 Atlantic hurricane activity would occur is about 5%. The reasons for the surprisingly high hurricane activity in 2018 are a hurricane outbreak in early September and, in particular, the occurrence of unusually high tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical North Atlantic. The hyperactive subtropical activity was not anticipated because contemporary statistical models of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity lack skill in anticipating subtropical ACE compared to tropical ACE.

This study presents a multi-proxy reconstruction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity for the past 800 years from Robinson Lake, located on the north Atlantic seaboard of Nova Scotia, Canada. Two sediment cores were extracted from Robinson Lake and were dated by 210Pb and 14C methods, and analyzed for organic matter content, sediment grain size, and a range of elements and elemental ratios determined by XRF core scanning. A distinct sand layer in the most recent sediments is attributed to Hurricane Juan, which struck the coast of Nova Scotia on September 29, 2003. Our study shows that peaks in grain size farther down-core are generally correlated with abrupt increases in Br and Br/Ti. XRF-derived Br measurements are an indicator of marine organic carbon (MOC), and the increases in Br likely reflect incursions of marine water and nutrients into the lake as a result of storm surges. The results show that the period from ~1475 to 1670 CE contains at least 3–4 storm beds, and are interpreted as the most active TC period within the last ~800 years for this region. Our results are consistent with recent research from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (Donnelly et al. 2015), which provides evidence for heightened TC activity during the same period as our study at Robinson Lake. Our study represents one of the highest latitude paleotempestological studies from the North Atlantic basin which will help the testing of hypotheses concerning long-term changes in North Atlantic TC activity under future climate change scenarios.

A central organizing concept in estuarine biogeochemistry is net ecosystem production (NEP). However, estimates of seasonal and interannual variability of whole-system estuarine NEP, which provide insight into how estuaries respond to climatic and anthropogenic forcing, are rare. The main objectives of this study are to (1) determine the seasonal and interannual variability in whole-system NEP of Biscayne Bay, a subtropical, shallow estuary located in southeastern Florida, USA, and (2) determine the potential driving mechanisms of NEP in this estuary. We compute monthly NEP over more than 12 years by constructing the dissolved oxygen budget for the estuary from monthly snapshot oxygen survey data (i.e., collected once per month). High-frequency observations of oxygen in similar subtropical estuaries were used to quantify the error associated with the snapshot monthly sampling. Oxygen air–water exchange and NEP closely balanced each other, with the long-term mean NEP (± 2 standard errors) equal to − 5.3 ± 0.3 mol O2 m−2 year−1, indicating net heterotrophy. Significant seasonality was found, with lowest NEP in September. At monthly time scales, NEP was significantly positively correlated with chlorophyll and total phosphorus and significantly negatively correlated with canal flow. Interannual variability in NEP was substantial, and the bay temporarily shifted from net heterotrophy to net autotrophy after the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, probably in response to increases in nutrients from runoff and resuspension. These findings show that monthly oxygen surveys can be used to quantify whole-system estuarine NEP and that Biscayne Bay NEP is sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic forcing on seasonal and interannual timescales.

The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, with 17 named storms (1981–2010 median is 12.0), 10 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 6 major hurricanes (median is 2.0), and 245% of median accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) occurring. September 2017 generated more Atlantic named storm days, hurricane days, major hurricane days, and ACE than any other calendar month on record. The season was destructive, with Harvey and Irma devastating portions of the continental United States, while Irma and Maria brought catastrophic damage to Puerto Rico, Cuba, and many other Caribbean islands. Seasonal forecasts increased from calling for a slightly below-normal season in April to an above-normal season in August as large-scale environmental conditions became more favorable for an active hurricane season. During that time, the tropical Atlantic warmed anomalously while a potential El Niño decayed in the Pacific. Anomalously high SSTs prevailed across the tropical Atlantic, and vertical wind shear was anomalously weak, especially in the central tropical Atlantic, from late August to late September when several major hurricanes formed. Late-season hurricane activity was likely reduced by a convectively suppressed phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation. The large-scale steering flow was different from the average over the past decade with a strong subtropical high guiding hurricanes farther west across the Atlantic. The anomalously high tropical Atlantic SSTs and low vertical wind shear were comparable to other very active seasons since 1982.

A Lagrangian analysis is applied to identify the main moisture source areas associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall along the west coast of South Africa during the extended austral winter months from 1980 to 2014. The results show that areas that provide the anomalous uptake of moisture can be categorized into four regions: (1) the South Atlantic Ocean between 10°S and 30°S, (2) a clear local maximum in the eastern South Atlantic, (3) a continental source of anomalous uptake to the north of the Western Cape, and (4) over South America at a distance of more than 7000 km from the target region. It emerges that the South American moisture source can be linked to a particular phase of the South American low-level jet, known as a no Chaco jet event (NCJE), which transports moisture to the western and central South Atlantic basin. Concisely, we provide strong evidence that the two margins of the South Atlantic Ocean appear connected by two meteorological structures, with the NCJE playing a key role of transporting moisture from South America to the western and central South Atlantic basin, feeding the AR that transports some of the moisture to the west coast of South Africa.

Spatial distribution and seasonal variation of explosive cyclones (ECs) over the North Atlantic from October 2000 to September 2016 are investigated using the reanalysis data of Final Analysis (FNL), Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Optimum Interpolation (OI) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), respectively. Considering the meridional distribution of ECs and 10-m height wind field associated with the ECs, the definition of EC given by Yoshida and Asuma (2004) is modified. It is found that the ECs occurred mainly in four regions during winter season, namely, North America continent (NAC), the Northwest Atlantic (NWA), the North-central Atlantic (NCA), and the Northeast Atlantic (NEA), depending on the spatial distribution of EC’s maximum deepening rate of central sea level pressure (SLP). According to the magnitude of maximum deepening rate, the trend of EC numbers basically decrease with the increase of EC’s maximum deepening rate over the North Atlantic during the whole time period. Over the North Atlantic basin, for monthly statistics, the NEA, NCA, and NWA cyclones occur mainly in December, from December to March, and from January to February, respectively. NWA, NCA and NEA cyclones in winter are associated with low-level baroclinicity, both low-level baroclinicity and upper-level forcing and upper-level forcing, respectively. According to monthly variation, the averaged maximum deepening rate of central SLP firstly increases and then decreases from July to June. Overall, the distribution of ECs’ tracks is basically in the southwest-northeast direction. During winter circulation stage (from October to May), the averaged maximum deepening rate of central SLP and the averaged minimum central SLP of ECs decrease, and the averaged explosive-deepening duration of ECs shortens from west to east over the North Atlantic basin. During summer circulation stage (from June to September), the number of ECs is far less than that of winter circulation. NCA cyclones are the lowest in the average minimum central SLP of ECs, and the longest in the average explosive- deepening duration of ECs. NEA cyclones are the strongest in the average maximum deepening rate of central SLP.

Agulhas rings are one of the main processes contributing to the westward transport of Agulhas leakage water across the South Atlantic basin. Here, we quantified the water transported and exchanged by three Agulhas rings by combining remote‐sensing altimetry and in‐situ Argo observations. Satellite velocities showed that two of the eddies formed within the Cape Basin west of South Africa at the beginning of 2013 and reached the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge by the end of 2014. There, they merged forming the third eddy which dissipated a year later when it approached the Brazilian continental shelf. Eddy structure reconstructed from Argo profiles showed that the eddies were at least 1500‐m deep and that their dynamics was strongly affected by the two open‐ocean ridges encountered along their path. Between the ridges, eddy volumes were mostly conserved, but waters were continuously exchanged. During eddy dissipation, volume losses and water exchanges were more pronounced at depth. These findings highlight the importance of combining surface with in‐situ information to accurately represent Agulhas ring transport and exchanges. Overall, the eddies transported roughly 0.5 × 1013 m3 of water from the Cape Basin to west of 30° W in a 3‐year span. Lagrangian diagnostics indicated that, after an initial period of instability, the surface waters exchanged by the eddies along their tracks dispersed roughly in the same direction as the eddies, albeit at a much slower rate. These results further confirm that Agulhas eddies are the most efficient process for westward transport across the South Atlantic basin.

Paleotempestology, the study of past tropical cyclone activity, has grown considerably over the past two decades, and there is now a relatively dense network of sites across the Western North Atlantic Basin providing records of past tropical cyclone variability. This paper presents a new database of paleotempestological records generated from 61 studies published between 1993 and 2018 for this region. A total of 266 data entries, consisting of the calibrated ages of individual tropical cyclone events and the boundaries of ‘active’ tropical cyclone periods from the present to 8000 cal. yr BP, along with the site names, geographic coordinates, proxy indicator(s) used, materials upon which dating was undertaken, and information about the depositional basin type (e.g. lagoon, mangrove), are included in the database for each site. The database is housed at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) ( https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/21391 ) and is available for free download. This publicly available database will permit a greater number of researchers to work on questions related to past tropical cyclone dynamics and more easily allow studies of long-term spatial-temporal tropical cyclone relationships to be undertaken.

Ocean quahogs [ Arctica islandica (Linnaeus, 1769)] are the longest-lived, non-colonial animal known today, with a maximum life span exceeding 500 years. Ocean quahogs are a commercially important bivalve, inhabiting the continental shelf of the North Atlantic basin. We examined growth rates of ocean quahogs that were fully recruited to the commercial fishery (>80-mm shell length) from four sites covering the range of the stock along the east coast of the U.S. through analysis of annual growth lines in the hinge plate. Both geographic and temporal differences (on a scale of decadal or longer) in growth rates exist throughout the range of the stock. The age at which animals reached 60, 80, and 90 mm decreased significantly, and average growth rates to 60, 80, and 90 mm increased significantly with birth year at a New Jersey and a Long Island site, both located in the southwestern portion of the stock, since the late 1700s/early 1800s, likely in response to increasing bottom water temperatures. That is, growth rates vary temporally with birth date at the southwestern sites, with younger animals growing at a much faster rate in recent decades than those born many decades previously, whereas at the northern sites off southern New England and on Georges Bank, changes in growth rates through time are limited to older adult animals or absent altogether. Thus, at the southern portion of the range, variation in growth rate over time exists in all phases of ocean quahog life, whereas on Georges Bank, little evidence exists for any differential in growth rate over the last ~200 years. The fact that ocean quahogs record the rise in ocean temperatures after the Little Ice Age in the Mid-Atlantic Bight southeast of southern New England, yet demonstrate little evidence of such a rise in the southern New England and Georges Bank region, would suggest a differential response of ocean circulation and its control of bottom water temperature between the northern and southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic Bight over the last 200+ years.

Micropaleontological and geochemical analyses reveal distinct millennial-scale increases in carbonate preservation in the deep Southeast Atlantic (Cape Basin) during strong and prolonged Greenland interstadials that are superimposed on long-term (orbital-scale) changes in carbonate burial. These data suggest carbonate oversaturation of the deep Atlantic and a strengthened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the most intense Greenland interstadials. However, proxy evidence from outside the Cape Basin indicate that AMOC changes also occurred during weaker and shorter Greenland interstadials. Here we revisit the link between AMOC dynamics and carbonate saturation in the deep Cape Basin over the last 400 kyr (sediment cores TN057-21, TN057-10 and ODP Site 1089) by reconstructing centennial changes in carbonate preservation using mm-scale X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanning data. We observe close agreement between variations in XRF Ca/Ti, sedimentary carbonate content and foraminiferal shell fragmentation, reflecting a common control primarily through changing deep-water carbonate saturation. We suggest that the high-frequency (sub-orbital) component of the XRF Ca/Ti records indicates the fast and recurrent redistribution of carbonate ions in the Atlantic basin via the AMOC during both long/strong- and short/weak North Atlantic climate anomalies. In contrast, the low- frequency (orbital) XRF Ca/Ti component is interpreted to reflect slow adjustments through carbonate compensation, and/or changes in the deep-ocean respired carbon content. Our findings emphasize the recurrent influence of rapid AMOC variations on the marine carbonate system during past glacial periods, providing a mechanism for transferring the impacts of North Atlantic climate anomalies to the global carbon cycle via the Southern Ocean.

Author(s): Timmermans, B; Patricola, C; Wehner, M | Abstract: Ocean wave climate is an important area of research, particularly in the context of extremes driven by tropical cyclones (TC). We can now simulate global climate at resolutions sufficient to resolve TCs and for durations long enough to explore climatological changes. Both the devastating 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season and growing evidence for the connection between TC activity and increasing ocean temperature motivate investigation of possible future changes. We present two simulated 50-year global wave climate data sets under possible future warming scenarios characterized by +1.5°C and +2.0°C stabilized global mean temperatures that capture the effects of TCs. Differences in extreme wave climate between these possible scenarios and present-day conditions appear to be significant in many areas, particularly those affected by TCs. However, for computational feasibility, simulations of this kind rely on fixed sea surface temperatures, so we also investigate and elucidate effects from the lack of a dynamic ocean by simulating waves from a number of recent hurricanes and comparing output to observations. We conclude that atmosphere-only forcing is likely to result in an overestimate of extreme wind speeds and wave heights in TC-affected regions. More ensemble studies are needed to help elucidate detailed processes relevant to extreme wave climate, and important community projects such as the Coordinated Wave Climate Intercomparison Project (COWCLIP) should be supported.

The extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most destructive on record for the basin, with damage costs exceeding $250 billion in the United States alone. For the first time ...

In October 7–9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm’s winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm’s area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. Analyses of simulations of an operational hurricane-ocean coupled model reveal the disruption that the hurricane caused to the GS flow, including a decline in transport of ∼20 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). In comparison, the observed FC reached a maximum transport of ∼40 Sv before the storm on September 10 and a minimum of ∼20 Sv after the storm on October 12. The hurricane impacts both the geostrophic part of the GS and the wind-driven currents, generating inertial oscillations with velocities of up to ±1 m s−1. Analysis of the observed FC transport since 1982 indicated that the magnitude of the current weakening in October 2016 was quite rare (outside 3 standard deviations from the mean). Such a large FC weakening in the past occurred more often in October and November, but is extremely rare in June-August. Similar impacts on the FC from past tropical storms and hurricanes suggest that storms may contribute to seasonal and interannual variations in the FC. The results also demonstrated the extended range of coastal impacts that remote storms can cause through their influence on ocean currents.

Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

Hurricane Sandy (2012) was the second costliest tropical cyclone to impact the United States and resulted in numerous lives lost due to its high winds and catastrophic storm surges. Despite its impacts little research has been performed on the circulation on the continental shelf as Sandy made landfall. In this study integrated ocean observing assets and regional ocean modeling were used to investigate the coastal ocean response to Sandy's large wind field. Sandy's unique cross-shelf storm track, large size, and slow speed resulted in along-shelf wind stress over the coastal ocean for nearly 48 hours before the eye made landfall in southern New Jersey. Over the first inertial period (∼18 hours) this along-shelf wind stress drove onshore flow in the surface of the stratified continental shelf and initiated a two-layer downwelling circulation. During the remaining storm forcing period a bottom Ekman layer developed and the bottom Cold Pool was rapidly advected offshore ∼70 kilometers. This offshore advection removed the bottom Cold Pool from the majority of the shallow continental shelf and limited ahead-of-eye-center sea surface temperature (SST) cooling, which has been observed in previous storms on the MAB such as Hurricane Irene (2011). This cross-shelf advective process has not been observed previously on continental shelves during tropical cyclones and highlights the need for combined ocean observing systems and regional modeling in order to further understand the range of coastal ocean responses to tropical cyclones.

This study explores the seasonally lagged impact of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) in the Atlantic main development region (MDR) on the subsequent Atlantic hurricane season. It is found that wintertime SST anomalies in the MDR can persist into the summer, explaining 42% of the variance in the subsequent hurricane season's SST during 1951-2010. An anomalously warm wintertime in the MDR is usually followed by an anomalously active hurricane season. Analysis shows an important constraint on the seasonal evolution of the MDR SST by the water vapor feedback process, in addition to the well-known wind-evaporation-SST and cloud-SST feedback mechanisms over the tropical North Atlantic. The water vapor feedback influences the seasonal evolution of MDR SST by modulating seasonal variations of downward longwave radiation. This wintertime thermal control of hurricane activity has significant implications for seasonal predictions and long-term projections of hurricane activity over the North Atlantic.

Quantitative records of past environments are needed to understand natural variability in ecosystems and their responses to climate change. Changes in ostracode assemblages through time can provide such records as ostracode species are sensitive to changes in their local environments. Before they can be used to indicate past environments, however, is it necessary to understand how distributions of assemblages change across environmental gradients. To that end, thirty-two lakes on San Salvador Island, Bahamas were sampled for both ostracodes and nineteen limnological variables. Multivariate fuzzy set ordination indicates that change in ostracode assemblages is significantly and independently correlated with three environmental variables: electrical conductivity (salinity), dissolved oxygen and alkalinity. A transfer function was created to reconstruct past conductivity since changing conductivity of lakes on San Salvador is influenced by changes in climate and sea-level. A 2-component weighted-averaging partial least squares model performed best as a transfer function for conductivity with an apparent r2 of 0.76 and an r2 of 0.69 between observed and predicted conductivity, as assessed by leave-one-out cross validation. The resulting transfer function was then applied to two mid- to late-Holocene sediment cores from which ostracode assemblages were sampled. The late Holocene conductivity records show that changes in conductivity of lakes on San Salvador are broadly synchronous with times of enhanced ENSO activity corresponding to elevated conductivity in response to lower Atlantic hurricane occurrence. These results demonstrate that changing ostracode assemblages through time provide a reliable means to reconstruct past salinity and demonstrates the strong effect of ENSO on Bahamian aridity.

An increasing amount of freshwater has been observed to enter the Arctic Ocean from the six largest Eurasian rivers over the past several decades. The increasing trend is projected to continue in the twenty-first century according to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled models. The present study found that water flux from rivers to the Arctic Ocean at the end of the century will be 1.4 times that in 1950 according to CMIP5 projection results under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The effect of increasing Arctic river runoff on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) was investigated using an ocean-ice coupled model. Results obtained from two numerical experiments show that 100, 150 and 200 years after the start of an increase in the Arctic river runoff at a rate of 0.22%/a, the AMOC will weaken by 0.6 (3%), 1.2 (7%) and 1.8 (11%) Sv. AMOC weakening is mainly caused by freshwater transported from increasing Arctic river runoff inhibiting the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). As the AMOC weakens, the deep seawater age will become older throughout the Atlantic Basin owing to the increasing of Arctic runoff.

ERA-Interim and JRA-55 reanalysis products are analyzed to document the annual cycle of the South Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) and examine how its interannual variability relates to regional and large-scale climate variability. The annual cycle of the SASH is found to have two peaks in both intensity and size. The SASH is strongest and largest during the solstitial months when its center is either closest to the equator and on the western side of the South Atlantic basin during austral winter or farthest poleward and in the center of the basin in late austral summer. Although interannual variations in the SASH’s position are larger in the zonal direction, the intensity of the high decreases when it is positioned to the north. This relationship is statistically significant in every month. Seasonal composites and EOF analysis indicate that meridional changes in the position of the SASH dominate interannual variations in austral summer. In particular, the anticyclone tends to be displaced poleward in La Niña years when the southern annular mode (SAM) is in its positive phase and vice versa. Wave activity flux vectors suggest that ENSO-related convective anomalies located in the central-eastern tropical Pacific act as a remote forcing for the meridional variability of the summertime SASH. In southern winter, multiple processes operate in concert to induce interannual variability, and none of them appears to dominate like ENSO does during the summer.

Observing System Simulated Experiments (OSSEs) performed during the 2014 North Atlantic hurricane season quantify ocean observing system impacts with respect to improving ocean model initialisation in coupled tropical cyclone (TC) prediction systems. The suitability of the OSSE system forecast model (FM) with respect to the previously validated Nature Run is demonstrated first. Analyses are then performed to determine the calibration required to obtain credible OSSE impact assessments. Impacts on errors and biases in fields important to TC prediction are first quantified for three major components of the existing operational ocean observing system. Satellite altimetry provides the greatest positive impact, followed by Argo floats and sea surface temperature measurements from both satellite and in-situ systems. The OSSE system is then used to investigate observing system enhancements, specifically regional underwater glider deployments during the 2014 hurricane season. These deployments resulted in...